If Gonchar injury is serious, are the Penguins better off this season than last?
September 2008 in a meaningless pre-season game, Sergei Gonchar was injured on an awkward "finish your check" hit by David Koci (then of the Tampa Bay Lightning). It would damage his shoulder and require surgery, knocking the Pens best and most experienced defenseman out until February. You know the story from there: Dan Bylsma replaced Michel Therrien one game into Gonchar's return, yadda yadda yadda, the Pens went on a tremendous run and won the Stanley Cup.
Now, in October of 2009, Gonchar left a game against the St. Louis Blues, on what was described as "more like an awkward thing than a big hit or a hard hit" by Bylsma in his post-game comments. Bylsma noted that nothing further is available until tomorrow.
IF Gonchar will be again out of the lineup for an extended period of time -- which it should be noted is all speculative conjecture at this point -- are the Penguins better prepared for it this season rather than last season?
There's no doubt PIttsburgh stumbled and badly missed their defensive leader in his absence last season. Alex Goligoski, a veteran of only 3 NHL regular season games, played 45 games in 2008-09, mainly in Gonch's stead. Goligoski acquited himself admirably, racking up 6 goals, 14 assists and a +5 plus/minus rating. This year, with free agent defections, Goligoski is a full-time NHL'er and has 2 goals, 5 assists and a +9 rating in just these first nine games.
Along with Goligoski's full emergence as a legit NHL level defenseman, Kris Letang has continued his development, seeing his ice time rise from 18:09 (in 2007-08) to 21:08 last season to 20:46 in this young season. Letang's also on pace for a 45 assist season with 5 helpers in the first game games of the season.
The replacement to the lineup would be Martin Skoula, he of 724 career NHL games. Though Skoula has been shaky at times in his career, it seems he can step in and fill the 15 or so even-strength minutes that Gonchar's been recording at a level that won't handcuff the way the Penguins intend to play.
So, if Sergei Gonchar is indeed knocked out of the lineup for a while, the Penguins seem to be better covered than this time last year. Goligoski and Letang have more experience and are entrenched as solid players at their position. Skoula, though new to the team and system, has been practicing with Pittsburgh for weeks and ought to have the experience to lean on to become accustomed to step in.
It may also be worth remembering that Gonchar had to miss time to a knee injury in the 2009 playoffs. The Penguins won the game he got injured in, won the following game, and then lost an over-time contest to the Washington Capitals during that injury. In that high pressure moment of not having #55, it wasn't like they folded without him then.
There's obviously no replacement for the leadership, steadying presence and on-ice contributions that Gonchar adds to the Penguins. If you made a list of the most irreplaceable players on the team, one could argue Sarge would be #2, only behind Marc-Andre Fleury (rationale: lose one top flight center and the other can pick up the slack, as we've seen happen). Gonchar's return (whenever that may be) will provide the best boost to the team. If nothing else until that point, the team will have something to rally around to continue their excellent defensive efforts in the season to date.
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I think the team as a whole understands better that these things happen than they did before. I hope so, anyway. I agree with your point that Goligoski and Letang are more experienced than last year, which makes the situation a bit less dire.
Get better anyway, Gonch.
/bites nails
"Darling, you say Brooks Orpik 'checked' that guy. He did not 'get under him and put him into the wall'."--Beloved to me, Winter 2007
"Don't beat yourself!"--Darrell Waltrip
sucks
Well, last year I think things inside the locker room were much worse, so the absence of Gonchar’s steadying influence was more glaring. We’ll obviously be waiting to learn more about the injury and how much time he may miss, but I’d be surprised if this group went into a profound funk without him in the lineup. Either way, we’ve got a ton of season to go.
It sucks, but it’s part of hockey.
P is for Latrobe.
Another blessing in disguise?
Given the fact that Sarge is getting up there in age, missing a month during the middle of the regular season could be another blessing in disguise. No doubt, he was very fresh after returning from the shoulder problem last year, and that definitely helped us. He was also fresher in the playoffs than he would have been playing the entire 82 game grind.
Also, the PP is ~%20 right now. Let’s see what it looks like over the next 5 games. In my opinion, it was Gonch’s PP presence that was missed the most. He and Malkin have this 6th sense between the half boards and the point that I am always amazed by.
So who runs the point now? Probably not Malkin. We tried that last year with very little success. How about Crosby with that new fangled stick? My guess in Tanger…who is shooting more and more by the game.
I’d say Letang and Goose run the #1 PP then let Skoula and someone safe like Eaton have the second.
Malkin’s said he is not comfortable playing defense and doesn’t like to do it. I think Al and Tabger can do the job just fine.
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by Hooks Orpik on Oct 21, 2009 9:43 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Hmmmmm
I would think the Pens would have a better understanding: someone going down means that others have to step up – that is what championship teams are made of.
Get well Sergei!
Definitely a tough question to touch on right now. I think Goligoski is playing extremely well, much better than last year, so the loss isn’t as bad as last season. So I guess I have to go with yes.
But Gonchar’s really been off to a good start. Losing him now for any period of time is really going to suck.
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In the long run...
…this might help the Pens more than it hurts. Sure in the short term (the next 10-20 games) Gonch won’t be playing, but when he comes back he’ll be 10-20 games fresher and not have as much wear and tear on his body. He’s not a spring chicken ya know. I still remember him as a rookie in 1995 (really!)
It will also give Letang and Goligoski more responsibility, which can’t hurt them. As for Gonch’s leadership, it’s not like he’s going away, he just won’t be playing, he can be in the locker room, at practice, etc.
Plus, there was a prediction that Letang would end up with more points than Gonchar, and this should pretty well seal that. If he doesn’t, then either Gonchar will have gone on a hot streak after returning, or Letang will be slumping. I wouldn’t expect either to happen.
Get well soon Gonch.
Let's go Caps!
this might help the Pens more than it hurts. Sure in the short term (the next 10-20 games) Gonch won’t be playing, but when he comes back he’ll be 10-20 games fresher and not have as much wear and tear on his body. He’s not a spring chicken ya know.
Could be a good point…In addition to saving Gonchar a little wear and tear on the rest of his body, it’ll be a possible “dry run”, if you will, for next season. Gonchar doesn’t have a contract for next season so we’ll see if the younger guys can “carry the mail” without him.
Pensburgh.com -- it's like the Max Talbot of blogs*
*not just because we only work for 12 minutes a night
by Hooks Orpik on Oct 21, 2009 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions
True, but he’s fully expected to sign one for next year. In reality, it’s more of a dry run for 5 years down the road when he retires. Or even 2 or 3 when he’s not the presence he is now (unless of course he’s like Lidstrom and never ages).
He's not like Lidstrom...
Games missed since the lockout:
Lidstrom: 14, including one as a suspension
Gonchar: 68 and counting.
Gonchar is starting to show some signs of aging and the wear and tear. How Lidstrom manages to avoid it is beyond me. Maybe he’s got the same mutation Wolverine has…
Let's go Caps!
by MikeL-Pivonka on Oct 21, 2009 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions
I expect Gonch might sign with the Pens for a short extension if he feels the team is going to be competitive every year. I personally think it means that he will sign an extension.
Let's go Caps!
by MikeL-Pivonka on Oct 21, 2009 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions
I’d expect he takes a pay cut to sign an extension for one, may be even two years… and then finish his career in the KHL where they’ll still be willing to pay him 3-4 millions/year just for the name
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