State of the Future
by AlexStitch on Nov 30, 2009 8:18 PM EST
17 comments
I'm creating this mainly because I posed the question about what people will think will happen in 2012 when our core players, in my opinion at least, like Geno, Sid, Flower, Orpik, and Staal will be free agents, under the Sid vs. Geno headline on the main page. Hooks and a few others suggested I make it a Fan Post.
I think it's interesting because like I'm sure we all know, Pittsburgh loves our sports, and that's one thing I miss about living back in good ol' Western PA. No matter what, we fans are die hard and will never give up on our teams, just look at the Pirates. (Side note: We don't care about anything else but winning and our players. This is just to solidify my opinion that Pittsburghers love their teams- the Bucs were the first team to ever start an all color [and I'm not trying to be racist or ignorant, I mean either black or Hispanic] starting line up. Pittsburgh fans didn't care; if you play for our team, we love you.)
With that said, I'm hoping that the players mentioned earlier would recognize that and want to try and stay in Pittsburgh. That some players would try and pull a Tim Duncan and not take as much money, or like Fedotenko and a few other players did this past off season.
So again, just posing the question here to see what others think. Hooks may crunch some numbers and figure it out a bit, but someone else said this too, that might be a little scary to read.
Al
(Hope I didn't lose anyone with my Pirates history allusion.)
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At the end of their deals Sid and geno will have made like 40 million+ dollars, the’’ll be in their middle twenties with many hockey and salery years ahead, I see sid setting a precedent that Geno will follow. so will keep both of them for years to come!!
There is a knack to flying: it's learning how to throw yourself at the ground and miss.
by Sid the captain on Nov 30, 2009 10:48 PM EST reply actions
Rumor has it that Kane and Toews are about to sign long-term in the $5-6 million range.
Given how close Mario and Sid are, you have to imagine Crosby knows that if he wants $9.5 million a year like Ovechkin, he can get it, but it means they can’t spend that money on the team around him. So I expect Crosby to sign more in the Toews/Kane range than the current deal.
Malkin followed Crosby’s led once, and I don’t take him to be a greedy person. He has every right to want to be paid his fair value (who wouldn’t?) so it’s really up to him. Would the Penguins pay him more than Crosby? Would Malkin take a discounted deal? Hard to know the answers of the questions that are so far away.
Al, I’ve seen you cite 2012 a couple of times, but Crosby and Staal are signed through 2012-13 season. Malkin and Orpik are signed until 2013-14 and Fleury until 2014-15. So the core of the team is locked in a little longer than 2012, and all the other contracts will be up.
Meaning, Shero gets to shape the roster any way he wants, he doesn’t have long-term anchors (like NYR has with Drury, Redden and Rozsival) that could hinder him.
Also, without getting too in depth, a lot could change when the next CBA is negotiated. Sure the salary cap will be around, but it’s impossible to tell what the league’s economic circumstances will be in 2013 or 2014 (can they get out of lower markets and generate more revenue?). Also important aspects of the CBA — like the escrow player’s pay into, or the maximum number of years a team can sign a player may change what we’re assuming at this point.
All in all, I’m not too worried and I don’t think you should be either. The Pens have Shero, and he’s virtually done no wrong. They have capologists and others to worry about the future. Even better, they have the right amount of money invested in the right players, not much dead weight in the contracts they have on the books.
You come at the king, you best not miss.
Do you think the NHLPA would have a fit if Crosby signed for 5-6 million? Or, while we’re on the topic, do you think the NHLPA would have a fit if Gary didn’t give them chocolate milk instead of regular on Fridays?
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NHLPA reaction was always a concern for Lemieux in his return, they didn’t want him to accept a deal far below market value, for fear it might hold other salaries down.
But that was in the age before cost-certainty. Players are going to get 56% of the league’s revenue (I think that’s the number) no matter what. Players are going to make a set percentage of the pie.
If Crosby eats less pie, it just means more for his fellow players. If Crosby accepts a less than max contract, the Pens are going to spend that money on another player and still spend to the cap. Sid taking less money than he could demand is a re-distribution of wealth that benefits other players at Crosby’s wallet’s expense.
The union obviously isn’t going want to see him accept terms that are very low, but I don’t think they’d be concerned these days as they are about other issues they have on their plate.
Hypothetically, if Crosby’s next contract is, say, $6 million, I still think other players (particularly on the UFA market) will draw their usual over-payments by teams, so I don’t see the NHLPA having much concern….But knowing how unstable that organization has been, who knows.
You come at the king, you best not miss.
Is Sid listed on any of the Forbes lists for professional athletes? Do we know if he is well paid or EXTREMELY well paid from endorsements (ala LeBron/Tiger, but on an NHL level)?
Ya, 2012- 2013. I figured I would assume and, like the NBA is doing with LeBron now, that whole year would be a huge question mark, even throughout the season, especially since Sid is the face of the NHL. But you do make a great point about Shero; he hasn’t done anything wrong and all of his moves are turning into big pluses, right now at least. And the same for the economy in the future and the what will happen with the CBA.
Hooks, you are the man.
I expect...
Crosby will sign a 10+ year contract (basically a lifetime contract with the Pens) in which his cap hit is very small. It will be structured like the Zetterberg, Franzen, etc. deals.
If Sid does this, I see Geno signing for more money, but at a discounted rate. Geno’s deal would be a 4-6 year deal.
I see Staal giving us a similar deal to what he currently has in 4 years/$16MM.
I hate to say it, but I think Orpik will be a casualty of the cap.
Fluery will be very interesting because he will be 30 but with a lot of miles. I expect him to be one of the top goalies in the NHL when he is a free agent, so the pricetag will be so steep to keep him. I am hoping that multiple championship rings, Sid and Geno will get us a discount.
All in all, I think Sid, Geno, and Staal all stay and Fluery will test free agency and possibly resign with us. Orpik will be a cap casualty. This all assumes we win at least one more cup and we get some Stanley Cup discounts.
WE ARE.......PENN STATE!
I see Sid retiring as a Penguin regardless of how much he signs for. I also expect the next phenom to enter the NHL in about 3-5 years, (see Gretzky to Lemieux to Lindros to Forsberg to Thornton to Sid) which determines if Sid remains the face of the NHL for the next decade or the next half decade. If the next coming is Gretz or Lemieux like, Sid is replaced, if a notch below, Sid remains king. Endorsement money is what Sid playing for.
Geno could follow Sid, but if the Pens win 3 of the next 4 cups, he could pull a Gretzky, or worse (KHL), and bolt for BIG money, having nothing left to prove. Along this KHL scenario, with 4 rings, an Art Ross or two and a few more Conn Smyth’s, don’t tell me one of the Russian Billionaire’s will not throw a 15mm per year deal at him in his prime, just to see if he will bite. (BTW the KHL money is supposedly tax free, so that is more than double a year than a 12mm NHL contract)
Staal is a wild card. If Bylsma plays him at wing and he drops 40, he is gone. If he remains the best third line center in the game and only pots 20, he stays.
Orpik will stay. HIs style of play dictates that he will be a shadow of his former self in 2014.
Flower will go. With his frantic, at times, style of play, I do not see him being an elite net minder for the next 6 years. We have been blessed to watch some of the greatest net minders of our time in our generation (Roy, Brodeur, Hasek) but longevity does not typically come to net minders.
Endorsement money is what Sid playing for
While I agree with you that I see Crosby a Penguin for life as well, the team is still going to compensate him.
I don’t know how viable the KHL scenario is for Malkin. There’s reports that some teams don’t make payroll every time (or at least have serious struggles). From my rudimentary understanding the KHL is owned by businessmen propped up largely in oil, who had a lot more value 18-24 months ago than they do today.
Aside from that, the NHL is still the best league in the world, and the best players want to prove themselves on the greatest stage. While some leap back to Russia when they could have stayed (Fedorov, Jagr) there’s a lot of guys like Kovalev that stay. Datsyuk and Ovechkin are locked in to the NHL for a long time, and Kovalchuk may be close to a long-term deal in Atlanta….Other than Radulov (who wasn’t making much money), no one young really jumps to the KHL when they’re in demand in the NHL.
Staal I see staying beyond this contract, but probably not “for life”. He’s so young and there’s so much movement it’s hard to say he’ll be a Penguin for the last 15 or so years of his career.
I think Orpik gets traded eventually before his contract ends…Don’t think he’s going anywhere anytime soon though.
Fleury could be gone too. Goalies and hips always is in my mind, butterfly goalies almost always have problems sooner or later, so we’ll see. Again, nothing to worry about happening this year or next/
You come at the king, you best not miss.
I don’t think Geno will go to the KHL. Didn’t he say he wants to win 10 Cups: “I have ten fingers, I want ten rings,” something along those lines.
Sure, the KHL may have money, but the oil concept is a good point, plus, I kind of view the KHL as a joke, or a fall back plan. (Maybe we’ll see Bourque there.) Radulov wanted to leave the KHL after like a week of playing there.
I don’t know that Geno would consider leaving the NHL, but I wanted to present a scenario that makes decisions hard. A ten year, 150 million contract to be the face of the KHL after winning 4 cups and alot of other misc hardware would be hard to pass up. Besides, the KHL is only going to grow. Oil is back up to $80/bbl and gas is $2.70/gal where I live, and they ain’t making any more of it. The money will be there (see NJ Nets sale to Abrahminovich (sp?)). His kids, kids, kids, kids would not ever have to work. Sorry, but sometimes money dictates.
Did Abramovich buy a team in the states aswel?? That guy is insanely rich even after losing ALOT of money during the credit crunch (I believe he lost about 10 billion or something in that range), is there any cap in basketball? if not, prepare for a spending spree (if he’s going to do anything like he did with FC Chelsea)
There is a knack to flying: it's learning how to throw yourself at the ground and miss.
by Sid the captain on Dec 4, 2009 7:50 PM EST up reply actions
They do
But it’s a soft cap where there is no penalty for going over the salary cap or luxury tex except for a dollar for dollar contribution. Meaning you pay the NBA a dollar for every dollar you go over the cap. The money is then split for the rest of the teams.
God, I hate this Abramovic. He’s ruining sport.
Tell me about it, he bought chelsea like 5-6 years ago bought a crap load of players for a crap load of money (really a crap load, the figure is in the hundreds of millions of euros) Then all of a sudden you see chelsea “fans” everywhere, sad part of the story: they bought all these great offensive players and then played the soccer equivalent of trap hockey, their matches are very often very boring to watch. All in all I despise most chelsea fans and their team (i know a few people from my college that were fans way before abramovich came along, they’re ok, they are really chelsea fans). Luckely there is FC Barcelona to see wonderful soccer. (in an awesome stadium btw, camp nou rocks when filled with 110.000 fans.)
There is a knack to flying: it's learning how to throw yourself at the ground and miss.
by Sid the captain on Dec 5, 2009 12:55 AM EST up reply actions
I know what you mean...
If Abramovic comes to the NHL I could forsee him throwing money at Ovec and possibly Malkin salary cap be damned…
He might be deluded enough to try to pay Sid a max contract to pull him outta Pitt…
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