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Will Pittsburgh regret losing another prospect to Los Angeles?

With 7 rounds a year, NHL teams can pile up draft prospects.  Having only 50 NHL contracts to give out, teams have to make decisions on which of their draftee's that they want to keep, and which to let slide along.  For the most part, players drafted in the latter rounds that don't get contracts usually find work outside of professional hockey.  Every once in a while, this is not the case.

A couple years ago the Penguins elected to let one of their draftees go without retaining his rights after four years of college.  The player caught on in Los Angeles, played three seasons in the AHL and the NHL (29 games, 6 goals 4 assists) before signing with New York this past summer.  Now he's on their top line and has 15 goals and 26 points in 35 games.

That player, of course, was Matt Moulson, a former 9th round choice of the Pens in 2003.

Now, according to TSN's Bob McKenzie, it's happened again:

Sources tell TSN [Jake] Muzzin has agreed to terms on a three-year entry level contract with the Los Angeles Kings.

The deal will not be signed or formalized until after Jan. 1 in order for Muzzin to take advantage of favorable terms in the CBA regarding future arbitration rights, but interested teams calling Muzzin are now being told he has made his decision and it's the Kings.

Muzzin was a first round OHL draft pick who missed his entire first year of junior because of back surgery. He was drafted by the Pittsburgh Penguins in 2007 but was not signed by them or subsequently drafted by anyoe else, so he became an unrestricted free agent last summer.

More on this situation, including who the Penguins chose to keep instead of Jake Muzzin..

Star-divide

Here's what Muzzin's done so far this season in the OHL:

GPGAP+/-PIMPPGSHGGWG
Jake Muzzin 34 9 32 41 11 52 5 1 4

He's leading all defensemen in the league in points and is tops on his team in assists, points and plus/minus.  For sure Muzzin's have a great year.

But he ought to be.  Muzzin (born in February 1989) is about to turn 21 and is in his fourth season in the OHL, where a lot of the players are anywhere from 17-21 years old.  He's a man among boys, so his dominance as an over-are is understandable.

In part because Penguins only kept a combined six draftees from 2005 and 2006, so they were able to offer contracts to six of the seven draftees from 2007.  The only one they ended up turning loose was Muzzin, a 5th round pick with a history of back injuries. 

Here's two defensemen from that draft year that got professional contracts.

Robert BortuzzoGPGAP+/-PIMPPGSHGGWG
Wilkes-Barre (AHL) 29 1 3 4 -1 51 0 0 0

Bortuzzo has made a big impact in his first season as a professional.  He was a big hit in Pittsburgh's training camp, where he showed a lot of polished play and impressed many observers.  Bortuzzo's shown a lot of toughness, getting 5 fighting majors so far, including some scaps against some of the toughest guys in the AHL (like Jon Mirasty and Trevor Gillies)

 

Alex GrantGPGAP+/-PIMPPGSHGGWG
Wilkes-Barre (AHL)  4 1 0 1 3 5 0 0 0
Wheeling;(ECHL)  22 7 9 16 8 22 2 0 2

Grant's been a victim of Wilkes-Barre's depth and has mainly been in the ECHL so far this season.  It seems like he's had a reasonably good rookie season, he needs more development and consistency, but so do most 21 year old defensemen.

 

So will Pittsburgh regret losing Muzzin?  They can't say they'd rather have him than Bortuzzo, who's been great.  Grant's a step below developmentally, but still doing well and is actually made the jump to the professional ranks.

Though the Penguins lost out of Moulson, I doubt they're losing any sleep over it.  Sure he could have had added some cheap production, but it's tough for young wingers to crack the Pittsburgh lineup in a scoring role.  In the interests of assest management, it'll be interesting to watch Muzzin's development to see if he continues to follow a path similiar to Moulson.

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Pens possible defensive depth chart in a few seasons time:

Goligoski-Orpik
Despres-Letang
Strait-Sneep/Bortuzzo

I don’t think Muzzin realistically projected to unseat any of them.

Pensburgh.com

You come at the king, you best not miss.

by Hooks Orpik on Dec 21, 2009 12:02 PM EST reply actions  

as far as I’ve been following the WBS season so far I thing Strait is a lock to play in Pittsburgh for some years to come, may be not as early as next season, but it’s possible.

And out of Sneep/Bortuzzo/Despres/Grant it’s a matter of who develops faster… Despres clearly has the most upside, but early to tell…

Overall I don’t think Muzzin will develop to be something more than a 3rd pairing offensive D-man on an average NHL team, so I don’t think anyone in the Pens’ organization will miss him all that much…

You have to see it for yourself...

by Bla Razor on Dec 21, 2009 1:56 PM EST up reply actions  

I’m just not sure how far you are projecting this by including Orpik, but not including Lovejoy, Engelland or Guenin. We have a ton of depth for the blue-line. Based upon the play of the three I already listed, combined with the growth of Gogo and Letang, the Penguins blue-line should be close to set for the next 5 years, at least. It will be difficult for Despres, Bortuzzo, Strait or Sneep to crack the line-up and this is a problem I would take any day of the week.

Moulson hurts worse because of our lack of prospects at top-6 forward other than Tangradi, but with the depth on the blue-line, this can be easily remedied through trade and also why Whitney was expendable last year. Shero knew he had Letang and Gogo in the system to replace him.

by Ulf Murphy on Dec 21, 2009 2:07 PM EST up reply actions  

I think both Engelland and Guenin are playing somewhere close to their potential which makes them both career fringe NHL players… Lovejoy should be able to hold down a place starting from next season. I see Strait and Despres developing into far better players than Engelland and Guenin and taking their places on the Pens’ top 3 pairings in 2 to 3 years

You have to see it for yourself...

by Bla Razor on Dec 21, 2009 3:39 PM EST up reply actions  

Fringe Players?

I honestly don’t know much about Strait and Despres, but Engelland has proved to me that he will play in the NHL for a few years, at the least. Maybe not for the Pens, but defensively challenged teams will always throw a million bucks at a guy who has a mean streak that doesn’t take dumb penalties and that plays solid defensive hockey. Guenin I could probably agree with, but again, another team will sign him when his contract is up just because he played for the Pens, if he doesn’t stick. Look at Taffe.

We need guys like Engelland to balance out the $4-5mm contracts of our top 2 or 3 guys. Shero will not find a Jay McKee every year.

by Ulf Murphy on Dec 21, 2009 4:39 PM EST up reply actions  

Engelland, even though he did look good, to me is just another dime-a-dozen defensemen that could you name a lot of in the AHL.

I do agree the Pens are going to need to find bargains, but I don’t know if Engelland’s going to be the guy. It’s possible, but the July 1 market has literally tons of guys like him for cheap.

Just look at Martin Skoula, who was a free agent in September, but has been very solid as a depth option.

Pensburgh.com

You come at the king, you best not miss.

by Hooks Orpik on Dec 21, 2009 5:03 PM EST up reply actions  

Yup. Engelland is the embodiment of the term “replacement level”.

by JustinM on Dec 21, 2009 7:29 PM EST up reply actions  

Ulf, I was just projecting out on a 3 year basis. Trades and free agency will definitely change things.

Orpik’s under contract for the next four seasons while minor leaguers tend to bounce around. It’s definitely possible that Engelland or Lovejoy could be around in the future, but you’d have to think, as this moment in time, that an established NHL’er with a long-term contract figures in.

I would have included Whitney on this in Jan or Feb, so things change, of course. I should have said more that my outlook is by no means what I think will or could happen, just a status of the defensive depth at this moment that’s in the organization as compared to not adding Muzzin.

Pensburgh.com

You come at the king, you best not miss.

by Hooks Orpik on Dec 21, 2009 4:04 PM EST up reply actions  

I was just suprised by the pairings you added as it did not include any of the guys we have seen from WBS this year. I have heard good things about Despres and Strait, but I have SEEN good things from Lovejoy, Engelland and Guenin (albeit only two short games) and believe that all of them could contribute on the big club. I actually keep thinking that Letang is the new Whitney. We have depth in the system, another #2 offensively minded d-man with a good contract (Gogo) and we have a prospect with good offensive upside (Lovejoy). With Letang’s contract status in the air, he seems to be the candidate most likely to be moved near the deadline. We cannot afford another $4mm d-man.

BTW, agreed on Orpik, that is why I didn’t even name him. He will be here.

by Ulf Murphy on Dec 21, 2009 4:32 PM EST up reply actions  

I see what you mean. Honestly I didn’t think the pairings out too much, just slapped down the names to the players in the system.

The Pens will have Orpik Goligoski and Letang (hopefully) and that’s a great base. It’s going to be a challenge to fill in the gaps with a limited part of the budget to do so, but guys like Despres have great futures.

Pensburgh.com

You come at the king, you best not miss.

by Hooks Orpik on Dec 21, 2009 5:04 PM EST up reply actions  

I wish I had more time...

to monitor the guys coming up beyong the obvious next call-ups. I have heard of Despres, but that is about all.

I agree we will have a great base no matter how things shake up. I also would not be sad to see any of the above named guys leave if we get value in return. I don’t see Shero putting us in the position where we have to dump salary (ala Chicago next year) to get under the cap, so I trust in what he does to keep the winning going. Althoug I think we may lose some young guys that become great players on other teams, but hopefully no Marcus Naslunds.

by Ulf Murphy on Dec 21, 2009 7:17 PM EST up reply actions  

Interesting. I always get concerned when trading away certain prospects/minor league guys. I mean, not much was lost when sending Ryan Stone off to Edmonton last season or Jeff Taffe down to Florida during the offseason. But with some of the younger guys I often grit my teeth with concern when I see them take up another team’s system.

I am pretty concerned with the Penguins’ blue line for next season, but it would appear most of these d-men are coming along well in the minors and such. I would like to see Despres, perhaps, in WBS next season, but that could still be wishful thinking. A lot of people are going to take the “Promote Tangradi” train next season and it just may be a likely possibility given the expired contracts of Guerin, Tenks and Cooke. Plus, I think Godard and Dupuis may wind up on the trading block at some point next year in hopes of bringing some extra punch to the lineup come playoff time. Who knows though? Perhaps I’m looking to far into it.

Follow the Penguins on SBN @ Pensburgh.com and twitter.

by FrankD on Dec 21, 2009 12:22 PM EST reply actions  

I would much rather see Caputi, Jeffrey and Letestu all get promoted full time next season to take up the spots of Guerin, Tenks and Godard. (I really hope Cooke stays)

This season, Crosby aside, the Pens have been … unimpressive to say the least in the face-off circles, therefore I’d like to see either Staal or Malkin moved to the wing permanently and both to play on the same line. Letestu and Jeffrey should be able to fill in the 3rd and 4th line center roles.

You have to see it for yourself...

by Bla Razor on Dec 21, 2009 2:06 PM EST up reply actions  

I think Guerin is the guy who will take a paycut to stay if he wants to even play next year. The bonus of that is that you only paly him 50 games allowing Caputi and Tangradi time to audition for that spot on Sid’s wing. Losing either Tenks or Cooke, I think, is a foregone conclusion and part of what makes Shero so good. They were signed for a specific purpose (lead by example and chippy play) and that we should be able to get at least the same value in FA.

Frankly, I am suprised the forwards stayed almost identical from last year’s roster, with the exception of Noted, and would be SHOCKED if it remained the same for 3 years. The “new” NHL, with the cap, does not typically allow this to happen. A part of the game we will need to get used to. Kinda like really small deals at the trade deadline.

by Ulf Murphy on Dec 21, 2009 2:14 PM EST up reply actions  

How did Muzzin do in his first draft-eligible year?

by JustinM on Dec 21, 2009 1:11 PM EST reply actions  

That’s a good question, Justin.

Muzzin did well in 06-07 as an 18/19 year old in the OHL, but he missed a lot of time with a back injury, he only played 37 games. It was one of those things that he could have been a great prospect and would have been drafted a lot higher than the 5th round if he didn’t have those durability questions.

This year, as an over-ager, he’s tearing things up. But he’s 7 months older than Jordan Staal, imagine how Staal would look this season against boys in the OHL. Muzzin ought to be playing well if he’s any sort of NHL prospect, given his age and 3 years of OHL experience.

Pensburgh.com

You come at the king, you best not miss.

by Hooks Orpik on Dec 21, 2009 4:07 PM EST up reply actions  

It should also be mentioned that Muzzin was draft eligible this past summer. NHL teams only have 2 years of holding the rights to Canadian junior prospects they draft. No team selected Muzzin this summer, obviously he wasn’t on the radar as much as 18/19 year old players with better prospect status.

His stock has soared this season as he’d led his team in points — quite an accomplishment for a defenseman. This has led someone as well known and respected as McKenzie to now write two pieces on him.

Is it legit? I don’t know. I highly doubt he jumps right into the NHL though next season.

Pensburgh.com

You come at the king, you best not miss.

by Hooks Orpik on Dec 21, 2009 4:10 PM EST up reply actions  

Could you imagine Jordan Staal in the OHL?? It shows how much upside can be gained by bringing guys directly to the NHL. Hell, look at Stamkos. People were saying last year he would be a bust and never recover from the hype. He could still be in the OHL. Or going back further, if we had a age cap like football or basketball, imagine Mario playing against only other 21 year olds and younger. 5 points+ a game. Mario would have averaged a hat trick and they would have had to come up with a new term!!

by Ulf Murphy on Dec 21, 2009 4:44 PM EST up reply actions  

Technically Lecavalier was in the same boat as Stamkos. I often think the same of Kyle Turris as well. Lecavalier didn’t exactly have a breakout season as a rookie, but Phil Espo and Co. weren’t so concerned about that as much as they were getting his skates wet at the pro level. So while he probably could’ve used another year or two in the minors he instead had to battle through the potential “draft bust” talks for his first two years. Of course, it didn’t hurt that he was playing for a pretty bad team at the time too.

Follow the Penguins on SBN @ Pensburgh.com and twitter.

by FrankD on Dec 21, 2009 5:04 PM EST up reply actions  

Joe Thornton scored 3 goals and 4 assists in his rookie season in the NHL (55 games) as an 18 year old. Of course, that was before the lockout and the “new” NHL with the new rules enforcement, so take it with a grain, but still.

Pensburgh.com

You come at the king, you best not miss.

by Hooks Orpik on Dec 21, 2009 5:12 PM EST up reply actions  

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