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Has Evgeni Malkin clinched the scoring title?

The short answer: no.

The long answer is: yes, so long as he doesn't get injured.

Let's look at the stats:

Scoring_race_medium 

Malkin has a healthy 10 point lead with just 13 games to go.  And, based off of points per game ratio, obviously Geno's got the leg up on his closest two competitors if the rest of the season plays out like it has so far. 

If that's the case, here's how the season ends:

Malkin: 115
Ovechkin: 104
Crosby: 104

Right now, we might as well throw out Crosby.  Considering that Geno plays power-play time with Crosby (and they almost always share points on that) there's no way, short of an injury, that Sid makes up the difference of 11 points in 13 games on his teammate.

So that leaves only Ovechkin to stand in Malkin's way of the Art Ross.  As shown above, if AO were to get his normal points from now until the end of the regular season , he'd wind up with 104.  If he gets hot and goes on a streak, he probably maxes out at 108 tops.  While that may not seem like a huge boost, it would mean he gets 21 more points in 13 games; a 1.6 ppg average for a guy mainly known as a shooter.

If AO ends up with 108 on a hypothesized best case scenario*, that means Malkin only needs to score 11 points in 13 games to match him....But keep in mind, the tie goes to who has more goals, which would obviously be Ovechkin, so Geno needs to win by 1, which means he would need 12 points in 13 games to win the scoring race. 

In this analysis, 12 points would guarantee Malkin the title.  WIth 13 more games to go.  If Ovechkin has a more human effort, like say he only got a point a game, still a pretty good rate.  Just like that, under that scenario Geno only needs 4 points to win it.   That shows just how far AO has to climb at this point.

So, to recap, Malkin probably needs between a range of 4 and 12 points to clinch the title, based off what Ovechkin does.

But if we know anything about how Evgeni Malkin's season has gone so far, he doesn't need anyone else to set his range.  He'll likely do his thing and end up with his normal 115.  And if that happens, it won't matter if Alex Ovechkin or (Hockey) Jesus himself was chasing Geno, aint no one catching him.

Bottom line is, barring injury, it's a sure bet that Malkin brings home an unprecedented 13th Art Ross Trophy to Pittsburgh in the past 21 seasons.  It's an insurmountable lead.

 

*Of course, a player of Ovechkin's talent could conceivably do better than 21 points in his last 13 games...Still, if you wanna place a bet, I'd surely give odds that Malkin ends up above Ovie in points, if both stay healthy.

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I honestly think that Ovec can make up a goal a game

Especially with the Caps on the back of two wins and chasing down NJ for second seed in the East…

That said, Geno’s still a beast. More than likely he’ll blow up too…

by Alighieri on Mar 13, 2009 9:16 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Nah – the Ross is Geno’s. The trophy that’s really up for grabs in this last month is the Hart.

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Mar 13, 2009 10:06 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Last year I remember a group of fans leading the charge for an MVP who lead the league in points and rallied his team to an unlikely playoff berth.

By those qualifications, it should be Malkin this year.

There’s still a lot of hockey left to play, but by all accounts just because guys like Ovechkin and Crosby are more visibly personalities doesn’t mean they’re more valuable.

As of now, #71 should win the Hart. But there is still 13 games to play, so we’ll see.

by Hooks Orpik on Mar 13, 2009 11:56 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The big difference between the Caps run last year and the Pens is that the Pens never hit rock-bottom or were last in their division or the league. Also, the Caps went on to win the division, and while it possible for the Pens, it’s not probable.

I think there’s a good case for both players to win the Hart, and I’d say that Malkin is leading right now, but there is a lot of hockey left to play so who knows.

by CapitalsKremlin on Mar 14, 2009 12:48 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The Pens were never as down and out as the Caps were around Thanksgiving 2007 before their coaching change. But the Pens lost against the Maple Leafs 6-2 in a terrible, terrible effort a couple weeks ago. That really was a rock bottom for this team.

You’re right to say unlike the Caps last year— the Pens won’t win the division this season, just not enough time to storm back— take nothing away from the Devils, a good team in their own right.

by Hooks Orpik on Mar 14, 2009 1:51 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

If the coaching change had been made in late Jan. early Feb. would you think the Pens would be able to chase down the Bruins? I think the deadline deals have had a lot to do with the Pens, and Crosby’s, recent success, although I don’t watch the Pens every night so I can’t speak to how much Bylsma has changed the team.

by CapitalsKremlin on Mar 14, 2009 3:42 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Good post Hooks. Not like that’s anything new.

Geno’s gone only 14 games this season without a point and never more than two without at least one point. The Art Ross is as good as his as long as he stays healthy.

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by FrankD on Mar 13, 2009 11:14 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Malkin has the Ross hands down. If Ovie is going to do anything it will be a few goal streaks and come close to hitting 60 on the year, but I don’t think he’ll eclipse Malkin. Like JP said, the Hart is what’s up for grabs this month.

by CapitalsKremlin on Mar 13, 2009 11:37 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Thanks for the input, CK, feel free to join in here at Pensburgh any time— just like I do at the Rink….My little sister graduated from VCU nursing last year so I got love for the Rams. See, we may not be all bad over this way!

by Hooks Orpik on Mar 14, 2009 12:02 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Pens fans ain’t so bad…that is until they’re in your arena…

Here’s to a successful end to the season for both clubs, and go Rams. Maybe they’ll meet up with Pitt again in the second round.

by CapitalsKremlin on Mar 14, 2009 12:46 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

great post Hooks

To add to your point of why it’s pretty much in the bag for the Malkinator, you said he needs “12 in the last 13 games”………Well…….He has registered at least 1 pt in “12 of the last 13 games.” So I guess he doesn’t need to change a thing.

by penskorn6687 on Mar 14, 2009 1:07 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

No doubt, buddy no doubt. I tried to emphasize that Malkin doesn’t really need to “turn it on”, because he’s been racking up points consistently since October. No worries here that slows now, especially when his buddy Sykora gets back in the lineip.

by Hooks Orpik on Mar 14, 2009 1:46 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

This whole season I’ve been worried about whether or not they could re-sign Sykora next year and I hope they do cause just look at the chemistry he has with Geno. Geno will produce pts. no matter who he plays with, but we all saw something special last year in the Sykora-Malkin-Malone line and to have lost both Geno’s line mate’s in the span of 2 yrs would be a tough pill to swallow.

by penskorn6687 on Mar 14, 2009 1:55 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ovechkin had 19 points in his last 13 games last year, when there was a much greater sense of urgency with the Caps. I would think Ovechkin is going to get fewer full two-minute power play shifts (a standard for him, and for Mike Green), which might eat into his power play scoring opportunities, and he might get substantially fewer minutes down the stretch overall. I’d have to think that in that light, only injury could keep Malkin from winning the Ross.

The Hart? I’m still not seeing why this is such a contest. Ovechkin has more goals, more power play goals, more than three times as many game-winning goals, and plays for a team with a better record (does Malkin qualify if the Penguins don’t make the playoffs?…it was a well debated question last year with Ovechkin. For the record, I don’t find that disqualifying). Is Malkin the better defender? Probably, but not by as wide a margin as Penguin fans might think. Is Malkin the better playmaker? Without a doubt, but I’d expect that of a center. But I’m thinking…Michael Jordan won how many NBA MVP awards? And John Stockton won how many?

If you've read this far...seek help.

by ThePeerless on Mar 14, 2009 9:36 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Crosby is a better playmaker than Ovie or Malkin, just my opinion!

by AngelaMc on Mar 14, 2009 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Malkin isn’t a bad defender but he can slack off from time to time. He has a really strong backcheck and forecheck though, which I feel is his weapon of choice over hitting a guy into the boards. Your rationale of Jordon/Stockton is pretty solid. The set-up guy is often forgotten when it comes to MVP voting but hardly undervalued. Ovechkin’s combined stats still keep him in the running for the Ross, although we’ve all pretty much concluded it’s as good as Malkin’s. But the fact that his goals AND assists can also keep him in the hunt while at the top of the goal leaders may indicate he’s a bit more rounded in both aspects of play. Hence why he may likely be the front-runner for Hart.

Follow the Penguins on SBN @ Pensburgh.com

by FrankD on Mar 14, 2009 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

If Malkin is compared toJohn Stockton, you’d have to say Ovechkin is Peja Stokaovic for just being a shooter. I don’t think either is a very good comparison.

Malkin has the assists, more short-handed goals, more even strength points, a better plus/minus. Ovechkin has the case you mentioned, which is a strong one. Obviously there’s still time left for both to add to their resumes.

Last season Ovechkin powered the Caps to the playoffs and won the MVP. This year Malkin’s done the same for the Pens. I think there are a lot of similarites there, I might have to go back and find some Caps fans arguments from last year about that.

by Hooks Orpik on Mar 14, 2009 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

If you’re going to go with a B-ball comparison, I think Ovie would be Kobe, Sid would be Chris Paul and Geno would be Lebron. Maybe.

John Madden told me 90% of the game was half-mental...

by TheK-GunNeedsReloaded on Mar 14, 2009 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The day Geno covers his hands in chalk and tosses it up over the crowd is the day I question my loyalty to the Penguins…

Follow the Penguins on SBN @ Pensburgh.com

by FrankD on Mar 14, 2009 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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