Why the Penguins are the most dangerous team in the East
by Hooks Orpik on Apr 10, 2009 2:34 PM EDT
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PrintNo team should want to see Pittsburgh in the first round of the playoffs...Probably not the second or third round either, and at the risk of pointing out some of the obvious, here's why:
--The Dan Byslma factor. It's widely known that the team turned around on a dime when the new coach stepped in. In the 24 games that Byslma's been behind the Penguins bench he is 17-3-4. That's a pace of 130 points over the entire season. Boston, the one seed, will finish the season with no more than 116 points; as the #2 seed Washington will end up with a maximum of 110. Of course you have to credit those teams for their consistency over the entire season, but there's little doubt if the Penguins had a full season with Byslma's aggressive system they'd be right there with them, if not ahead.
--Revamped defense. Under Michel Therrien the Pens were giving up 3.11 goals against per game. Ouch. Under Byslma, the Penguins are surrendering 2.45 goals against/game. Huge turnaroud there, the return of Sergei Gonchar probably had something to do with it too. Boston, with Vezina front-runner Tim Thomas has given up 2.35 goals/against, Washington is at 2.94 goals against, and New Jersey is at 2.51 goals/against.
--Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. Currently first and third in the point race, and two of the top three offensive players in the league, no matter how you slice it. Plus they're the first 100 point scoring teammates in the league since the Pens had Mario Lemieux and Jaromir Jagr pull the trick in 1995-96. As we've learned, simply having multiple 100 point scorers doesn't guarantee playoff success...The Pens have had this happen four times: winning the Cup once, losing in the conference championship once and getting to Round 2 twice.
--Scoring depth. Get past Crosby and Malkin and the Pens still have players that can hurt you. The Penguins have seven other forwards with 15 or more goals, and Sergei Gonchar has 7 goals in 25 games, on pace for it too. Boston has 9 players as well with 15+ goals, Washington has 6 amd New Jersey has 7. The Penguins have scored 261 goals on the season, more than any other team in the East except for the Caps (268).
--Marc-Andre Fleury. Since February 4th, here's MAF's stat-line: 18-5-4 (3 losses in shootout, which don't exist in playoffs)... 2.50 GAA, 93.1% save percentage. That's rounding into his 2007-08 playoff form of : 14-6, 1.97 GAA, 93.3% save percentage. Fleury was easily the best goalie in the Eastern Conference last spring, and he could very well be the best goalie in the East recently.
--Health and more depth. Most teams key players are healthy right now, and the Penguins are in good shape in that regard too. Miroslav Satan, Philippe Boucher and their combined 112 NHL playoff games are waiting in the wings too in case of injuries/ineffectiveness, a veteran luxury that not too many teams have.
--Experience. Hard to believe, but the once green Penguin nucleus is now the most grizzled group in conference. In the last two springs they've played 25 playoff games and earned 15 wins. Of the top seeds, New Jersey is next closest with 15 playoff games (6 wins) in the past two years, Boston and Washington have just seven games, both winning 3. The New York Rangers, it should be noted, have 20 playoff games of experience in this stretch, winning 11 times.
These factors are nice to have, but that alone won't earn victories when the games really start to count. Still, given the choice between having the above factors like the Penguins do, and not having them like the rest of the league doesn't, I'll take the hand Pittsburgh is working with right now. The Pens are confident, strong and playing like defending Conference champions even if their initial seed is going to be in the middle of the pack.
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If I were a betting man, my money would be on Pittsburgh or Carolina to make it out of the East.
Life is about one simple choice, get busy living or get busy dying
Which is part of the reason why I don’t want to see the Pens/Canes in the first round. I’d rather see the Devils first and then go from there.
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Goals Scored?
Yes, the article is accurate as far as goal scoring is concerned for the Pens. However, only one team has allowed more goals than the Pens in the East in the playoff matchups, and that’s Montreal. Let’s not forget, defense wins championships. My Devils have done more with less all season and the playoffs are a different game. Hopefully we’ll have Clemmensen backing up Brodeur once the playoffs roll around. I’m much more confident with a tandem of Marty/Scott than Marty/Kevin. By the way, I think the Flyers are the most dangerous in the East on both ends of the ice, but that’s just my opinion. Best of luck, and we’ll see what happens.
Valid points, thanks for joining and sharing them. Defense is important and obviously a critical aspect of the playoffs. The Pens have turned that around under the new coach too.
The Penguin have given up just 59 goals during Dan Bylsma’s stint. That’s an average of 2.45 goals against per game. (The Pens were giving up 3.19 goals/game under Therrien. )
Your Devils, by the way, have given up 2.55 goals against per game this season.
The Devils are impressive as anything earlier in the year. The fact that they’ve not only rebounded but stayed alive while Marty was out is definitely commendable. I don’t know how it is around NJ, but it almost seems like the team is letting up now that he has returned. Granted they came up big the other night in that shootout against Ottawa, but should it have even gotten to that point?
If the playoffs started a month ago the Devils would be the scariest team to come out of the East. But right now I’m just concerned that the end of their regular season will pose as a decoy to what they’re really capable of in the postseason – the same thing they were doing over a month ago.
Thanks for joining and sharing your thoughts.
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Actually, the Devils have the fourth best GAA (2.49) in the NHL, giving up just 205 goals 81 games played this season with a goal differential of +30. I don’t think that it is possible to come out with an accurate representation of where the Devils and the Penguins stand stat-wise to compare the Devils stats from the entire 82 game regular season with the Penguins stats over the twenty-five games they’ve played with Dan Bylsma as their head coach. The Penguins have been the beneficiaries of a late season coaching change and several personnel additions at or around the trade deadline but many of the players on that team are the same players that gave up 3.19 goals/game and struggled to score under Michel Therrien. Overall the course of the entire season the Penguins have given up an average of 2.81 goals per game, which is .32 greater than Devils average.
I'm a Devils fan
And personally the team that scares me the most is Carolina. The Canes, in my opinion, have the most balanced team in the East right now. They also have Cam Ward, which neither the Flyers nor Pens have. Ward has won a Cup before and I think he’s one of the best goalies in the league right now. Fleury is good, but he’s also a butterfly goalie and it’s much easier to play against a goalie that you know will be going down to his knees 9 times out of 10. Same with Biron. Ward plays more of a hybrid style. He’ll go down sometimes, sometimes he’ll be more of a stand up style.
That being said, the Devils have stumbled badly enough down the stretch that I’m not sure it’s going to matter who they wind up playing.
The one big thing that the Penguins have going for them above anything else is that their power play is scary as all hell. The team has enough talent that they can win a series based on power play alone. And the Devils are atrocious on the penalty kill, especially lately. If the Devs match up with the Penguins, that will probably make it a quick series for my red and black.
by Tyler Bleszinski on Apr 10, 2009 11:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Cam Ward is a Stanley Cup winner, you can’t take that from him. And he’s really carried the load over the second half of the season. But Ward’s GAA and save percentage were much lower the two seasons before this and he didn’t get the ’Canes into the playoffs the past two years.
Now that they have Erik Cole the ‘Canes are hitting on all cylinders, no doubt about it. It’s impossible to say they’re not the hottest team in the East, because right now they are.
Fleury has been amazing too the past year. Other than Brodeur, I’d put MAF in a seven game series against any goalie (Thomas, Theodore, Biron, Lundqvist, Price, etc) and know the Pens have the edge, based off recent performance, especially how Fleury did last playoffs and over his last 25 games this year.
A Pens/Canes series would be intense. I question Carolina’s defensive depth, we’re obviously about to find out what they have. No doubt in my mind the Devils are just as playoff ready and have the players to muck it out and make a run as well.
The point of this post is that the rubber is about to hit the road, and I’m very comfortable with how the Pens have been playing lately.
by Hooks Orpik on Apr 10, 2009 11:44 PM EDT up reply actions
As a Devils fan
I’m not at all comfortable with how the Devils have played lately. I mean if it wasn’t Brent Sutter behind the Devils bench, I could’ve seen Lou dropping the axe like he did in 2000 with just a few games to go. Alas, it didn’t happen.
You should be pumped about the Pens because I think they have a good chance to go deep. I’m not crazy about the Pens defense and I don’t think as highly of MAF as you do, but when you have that offense, that power play, all you really need is for Fleury to just be good and you can go really deep.
I’m fearful of a quick exit for the Devs again in 2009. I’m hoping my gut is wrong.
by Tyler Bleszinski on Apr 11, 2009 4:46 AM EDT up reply actions
You’re not the only Devils fan to say they’re concerned about a first round exit. A lot of optimism seems to have strayed away from the Devils camp over the past few weeks. It’s amazing when you consider how well they played all season long through all of the injuries that at times made them appear more like the Trenton Devils. Personally I thought Lou was going to kick Sutter to the curb two or three weeks ago when things started to look like they were going down hill.
If the present is anything like the past then consider this: Tom Barrasso was a good goaltender but not “great” by Roy/Brodeur standards. But did he really have to shutout other teams when Lemieux, Jagr and Francis were putting up 100+ point seasons? It’s kinda how I’ve felt about Fleury over the years. When he was a rook it was easy to blame goals on him (although the lack of D was a concern as well) but now he’s more refined and can rely on the offense to take him through. And mind you that’s not disparaging his effort in net either because he’s really been coming along the past two years.
But…if Detroit were evidence of anything last season it’s that defense wins games. I sometimes wonder if Pitt’s run-and-gun offense can disprove that theory.
Follow the Penguins on SBN @ Pensburgh.com
Thanks for having me! I agree the Devils have let in more goals than usual this season, but it was to be expected with the shuffling of our Dmen ever since Daneyko, Stevens, Rafalski and Niedermayer left the roster. Under Coach Sutter, we’re more potent two-way meaning we also score more goals while allowing more as well. Still, winning 50 games doesn’t seem like it’s too bad a tradeoff in this “new” NHL where scoring and keeping fans in their seats is the priority. Therrien should have been gone long before he was, the players obviously stopped playing for him and imagine where the Pens might have been on the playoff berth standings had he been terminated 10 games earlier than when he was. They made an impressive comeback, but still, the team that scares me the most is still the Flyers in the East. To me, they’re the biggest X factor because when they play together as a team, not many can outscore them, out-hit them or play a better transition game. I’m interested because my Devs are a 3rd seed and I’m interested to see who actually will be the 6th seed after this last game is played.
The Flyers will never concern me as long as they have Biron in the net. No doubt they are a very deep team up front and are a very good team, but I just see the 20 goals the Pens scored on Biron in five playoff games and can’t feel too concerned. But of course anything can happen in the playoffs.
With Philly having two games remaining, you would think they have the leg up to avoid the #6 seed. We’ll see how it shakes out.
Ditto. Biron is about as soft as they come and I don’t see Philly winning any championships with a backup goaltender in net. If I didn’t hate the Flyers it would be a shame but because I do it’s downright hilarious.
Follow the Penguins on SBN @ Pensburgh.com
“—Experience. Hard to believe, but the once green Penguin nucleus is now the most grizzled group in conference. In the last two springs they’ve played 25 playoff games and earned 15 wins. Of the top seeds, New Jersey is next closest with 15 playoff games (6 wins) in the past two years, Boston and Washington have just seven games, both winning 3. The New York Rangers, it should be noted, have 20 playoff games of experience in this stretch, winning 11 times.”
I have to strongly disagree with this. The Penguins have one year of going deep in the playoffs (the year before they bowed out in 5 games) and you can’t simply just consider the last two seasons as what determines “playoff experience.” Martin Brodeur has more wins in the playoffs than a number of Penguins players have games played. The Devils have by far the most experience throughout the entire roster, as a number of players remain for the championship teams of 2000 and 2003 and they added Shanahan in mid season as well. Of course if you need an objective barometer count up the number of Stanley Cup rings each locker room has. The points about the Devils aside, after them the Penguins are the team with the most experience.
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