Pick 'em: Young Guns
by Rob Parker on Apr 13, 2009 10:15 PM EDT
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PrintThis is a FanPost I put up on Japers' Rink earlier. Hooks commented on it and suggested I post it over here for you guys.
The way I see it there are 4 teams in the east with a core of players that are built to compete for the next decade. It will be interesting to see how each of these teams/core players performs in the playoffs this season, but this won't be the last time we see these match ups. My question is which core group would you take if given the opportunity? Here's a look at the 4 best team nucleus' in the east (imo). I'm trying to keep the nucleus at 4 players per team to make it easier to compare and because that is the model (the Caps) that sparked this entire though experiment. I'm also not considering prospects at all (so no supplementing our Young Guns with Varlamov, for example).
PIT: Crosby, Malkin, Staal, Fleury
Crosby: 21 year old Center. Drafted first overall in 2005, just finished his 4th NHL season, playing a total 290 regular season games. He has 132-265-397 (1.37 points per game). Signed through 2012-13 at 8.7 mill cap hit. He has been a Calder finalist, Hart winner, Art Ross winner and Pearson winner. May be a Hart finalist this year, although I doubt it.
Malkin: 22, C. Drafted second in 2004, and has played 3 NHL seasons, 242 games. 115-189-304 (1.23 points per game). He is signed through 2013-14 at 8.7 per. He won the Calder, and was a finalist for the Art Ross and Pearson last season. He won the Art Ross this year and will be a finalist for the Hart and Pearson again.
Staal: 20, C. Drafted second in 2006, and has played in 3 NHL seasons, 245 games. 63-56-119 (.49). He was a Calder finalist. He has a lot of upside and is known for strong defensive play. Strong possibility that he could be a Selke finalist throughout his prime. Signed through 2012-13 at 4 per.
Fleury: 24, G. Drafted first in 2003. Since the 2003-04 season he has played in 173 NHL games going 76-67-19 with a .905 SV% and 2.95 GAA. He has had some consistency issues but he is young and has a ton of athletic ability. He is signed through 2014-15 at 5 per.
Overall: PIT's strengths are the fact that they have two Art Ross winners, one Hart winner (eventually Malkin will win one, too), a future-Selke candidate, and a potentially elite goalie. The weaknesses are the lack of goal scoring. Nobody on that list is going to win a Richard and very likely will not get more than a sporadic 50 goal season from any of those guys. I think there are still real question marks about whether Staal will ever be a top 6 forward and whether Fleury will become a consistently elite goalie. It's also tough to get all your young guns enough ice time when 3 of them play the same position. Malkin seems best suited to play wing of the three but I don't think that is the best position for him.
PHI: Richards, Carter, Coburn, Hartnell
Richards: 24, C. Drafted 24th in 2003. Over 4 seasons has played in 290 NHL games. 79-142-221 (.76). He is going to be a regular Selke finalist, is the most dangerous PKer in the league, has every intangible you could want, and has one of the most well rounded games in the league. Signed through 2019-20 at 5.75 per.
Carter: 24, C. Drafted 11th in 2003. Over 4 seasons has played in 307 games. 112-104-216 (.70). He had a huge year this year, is great defensively, has size, can skate, and can score. He should be a threat for Richard runner-up for years to come with his shot and hockey sense. Signed through 2010-11 at 5 per.
Coburn: 24, D. Drafted 8th in 2003, acquired from ATL via trade at the 2007 trade deadline. Over 4 seasons has played in 216 games, going 19-57-76 (.35) with 221 PIM. He is big and mobile with a good mean streak. He can play PP and PK and is 50% of the most effective pair to face Ovechkin on a regular basis. He is signed through 2009-10 at 1.3 per (then RFA).
Hartnell: 27, W. Drafted 6th in 200, acquired via trade with NASH before the 2007-08 season. Has played 598 games in 9 seasons. 147-167-314 (.53) with 846 PIM. He is a great fit for the Flyers, and hated by everyone else. He's got a good amount of skill, loves to go to the tough areas, and loves to start crap. Signed through 2012-13 for 4.2 per.
Overall: PHI has a lot of toughness in this group, and a lot of leadership/intangibles as well. Everyone in this group is an above average - excellent skater and they are all very strong offensively and defensively. However, they don't have anyone that averages a point per game in this group. It's not far fetched that Carter and/or Richards could end up scoring 1 ppg or higher, but it isn't certain either.
BOS: Kessel, Bergeron, Wideman, Lucic (As an initial disclaimer I recognize that you could argue about who should be in this 'young guns' group for BOS. I left off Wheeler and Krejci because I wanted to keep the groups to 4 players per team and those two have such small sample sizes it's hard to project for the future.)
Kessel: 21, W. Drafted 5th in 2006. He has played 221 games in 3 seasons. 63-59-122 (.55). He has a ton of speed and a great shot. He's another Richard runner-up candidate for the foreseeable future. RFA after this season.
Bergeron: 23, C. Drafted 45th in 2003. He has played 303 games over 5 NHL seasons. 80-148-228 (.75). He is undoubtedly talented but he is returning from a serious concussion. He could easily be a top 2 C on most teams in the league. Signed through 2010-11 at 4.75 per.
Wideman: 26, D. Drafted 241st in 2002. In 302 games over 5 NHL seasons he has 40-95-135 (.48). He really had a breakout year this year and looks like he has the potential to be a very good two way defenseman for years to come. Signed through 2011-12 at 3.875 per.
Lucic: 20, W. Drafted 50th in 2006. Over 2 NHL seasons he has played in 149 games going 25-44-69 (.46) and 225 PIM. He's a huge fan favorite and loves to play physical. He could end up being one of the best power forwards in the game. Signed through 2009-10 for .85 per, then RFA.
Overall: BOS has a pretty good mix in their core. They have a great playmaker, a great scorer, a real tough power forward and a potential top pair dman. However, they don't have a ton of offense in this group, especially when compared to the other three teams in this post. I'm also not sold on Wideman being a true top pair dman. I think he is a better fit as an offensive dman on a second pair that can get some PP time.
WAS: Ovechkin, Green, Semin, Backstrom
Ovechkin: 23, W. Drafted 1st in 2004. He has played 324 games in 4 seasons. 219-201-420 (1.3). He is the best scorer in the league, hands down. He also plays with more emotion than almost anyone I've ever watched. He plays physical, never gets pushed out of a game, and comes up clutch. He is capable of dominating a game like no other player on this list. He has won the Calder, Hart, Pearson, Richard (2x and counting), Art Ross. Signed through 2020-21 at 9.5 per.
Green: 23, D. Drafted 29th in 2004. He has played in 242 games over 4 NHL seasons. 52-92-144 (.60). He had a breakout year last year and a dominant year this year. He is undoubtedly going to be a Norris finalist this year, and if he can shake the assumption that because he is so good at offense he can't play defense, he'll win it. If this year isn't his year for the Norris, he'll have plenty more chances.
Semin: 25, W. Drafted 13th in 2002. In 4 NHL seasons he has played 254 games. 108-108-216 (.85). He is one of the most talented players in the league from a pure skill perspective. He is also probably the most skilled player on the Caps. He has had some discipline problems, and some injury problems, but he can also be a dominant player capable of carrying the Caps by himself. He is signed through 2009-10, then RFA.
Backstrom: 21, C. Drafted 4th in 2006. He just finished his second NHL season and has played in 164 games. 36-121-157 (.96). He was a Calder finalist after his rookie year. He is one of the best playmakers in the game and seems to be the perfect fit to play C for AO. He is also extremely good in his own end. I wouldn't be shocked to see him finish as a Selke finalist down the road. He has tremendous poise with the puck under pressure and is extremely good at winning battles on the boards (and more recently in the dot). Undoubtedly has 100 point potential. Signed through 2009-10 then RFA.
Overall: The Caps have a ton of offensive skill in their group, probably the most out of all of these groups. They have two once-in-a-generation offensive talents in this group, and 2 other elite-potential players. The easy knock is to say they don't have much defense or toughness, but that doesn't hold much water. AO is one of the hardest hitters and most physical players in the league, and while Backstrom won't be laying many people out he won't shy away from anyone either. Green (and Ovechkin and Semin) is underrated in his own end but he is still a far ways away from being a "shut down" dman. He may be Norris worthy but he's not the guy we are going to send out and know that the other team's top line is going to be held at bay.
I wouldn't trade any of the other 3 cores for ours, but I'm definitely biased. I think we have the best scoring of any of the groups and have the two most irreplaceable players. As much as I hate them I would take the PHI core after ours, then PIT, then BOS. I'm sure I've forgotten something and some of you probably disagree with my assesments, so let me know.
The content expressed in fanposts does not necessarily reflect the opinions of the staff here at Pensburgh.com. FanPosts are opinions expressed by fans of various teams throughout the league but may be more Pittsburgh-centric for obvious reasons.
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As much as I utterly despise their existence, the Flyers have a strong core of players. Six players scored 25 or more goals this year. That’s something that is really hard to contain. Shut down one guy and watch the next guy skate right by you. It’s also the sort of thing where you have to disrupt the chemistry because you can’t take down each guy on his own. But look at the team’s problem – all those scorers and no one in net. Can the offense really lead the charge and score enough to secure a win?
Boston doesn’t need the same big names as Pitt, Philly or Washington. As long as you have 20-goal scorers who can help the team jump out to a quick lead the Bruins will slip into shutdown mode and lock you out.
Just my two cents. Excellent post and some great points.
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The caps are set up very nicely in comparrison to our pens for the reason that they will have an under paid core(except Ovie) for the next year and the pens are in the last year of discount talent(malkin3.84m→8.7m,staal 2.2m→4m. If semin puts together a full season he’s worth more then his 4.6 which ends in 010-11 RFa and Backstrom is a point a game guy and improving, also an Rfa in 010-11
.
So on paper the caps have the best core, but they are weak in goal, the 1 job you want taken care of.
The pens have atliest made the cup final; this year and next will be the test for the Caps and by then we will know who’s had more success.
a Team like philly has a sweet core but you can’t really cut them off at 4 guys fairly because they are marginally less talented but much deeper
I would have counted my 4 young core guys from boston as wheeler, krejci,Lucic, kessel. They have a chance to win this year because that young core is paired up with a veteran core(Chara, Savard, Ryder, Thomas) and thats the formula for a stanley cup contender: Underpaid young core with old veteran core close to dispersing for free agency or trade due to cap reasons.
Phili B
Having a goalie is a big plus for the Pens, but having 3 centers is a minus, to me. I think you could spread the lottery picks around to other positions and be better suited to build a team around.
As for why I chose the 4 I chose for PHI and BOS it was because in PHI’s case the other scorers that add depth are older than Hartnell (Gagne, Knuble, Briere) or I don’t think they are in the long term plans (Lupul). I considered throwing Giroux in for the 4th but he just played part of a rookie season so there isn’t much to work with for projections. I chose Wideman for BOS because they already have a bunch of forwards on the list and I thought a D would balance out their core more. I do acknowledge a problem with limiting it at 4 because the real good teams do have a lot more depth than 4 players but I think with the salary cap it will be hard to resign 4 studs if they are all on the same contract time line. Wheeler, Lucic, Kessel, and Krejci all have to be resigned in this offseason or next offseason. That’s a lot of stress on the cap.
Having a goalie is a big plus for the Pens, but having 3 centers is a minus, to me. I think you could spread the lottery picks around to other positions and be better suited to build a team around.
Like I said at JP’s, I don’t think it’s a big deal. Malkin played a significant portion of the season Crosby’s wing and did just fine. Crosby and Malkin always play the PP at the same time. Jordan Staal scored 29 goals as a 18 year old rookie while playing mostly on Malkin’s wing.
Everyone gets their minutes, and the players are flexible enough to take different positions. Just because they’re natural centers doesn’t mean they play separate or any less than if they weren’t.
I can see the benefits of balance of having a center, wing and defensemen, but I don’t think it’s a disadvantage to have the best two centers in the game.
by Hooks Orpik on Apr 14, 2009 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t think it’s a disadvantage to have the best two centers either. Without rehashing the argument at Japers’ I’ll just say that Staal is the one that I question most. I wouldn’t really complain about having Crosby or Malkin, especially considering where they were drafted. But I think having Malkin and Crosby makes Staal very expendable and I think Kessel makes your team better than Staal does (and Kessel was on the board when Staal was chosen). I probably would have taken Toews over Staal too because I think he’s better suited to play wing. I understand you can find your centers minutes, but by doing that you either have to move them to wing (not their optimal position) or if you keep them at center you are basically playing them with checking line wings (not an optimal use of their playmaking talent).
Synopsis of my response at Japers’: I think NHL scorers are harder to find than NHL playmaking centers. The entire Team Canada forward group is made of centers with a couple notable exceptions (Nash, Heater, Iginla). If you have a scorer you can find a guy to pass him the puck, but even if you have a passer you still need to find someone to finish it, and those guys are just more rare.
The versatility Staal brings to the Pens is frequently overlooked. First and foremost, Staal and his linemates Cooke and Kennedy fill their role as the shutdown line very well and they add a bit of a spark. Staal makes the third line a legitimate threat to score as well even with the likes of Cooke and Kennedy as linemates. Then, if the Pens feel like putting Malkin on Sid’s wing Staal can be moved up to the second line and he brings true top six talent with him. Without Staal, moving Malkin up would mean that someone like Max Talbot would have to center the second line.
I’ll be the first to admit that I was ragging on Staal for most of this year but I really do admire what he brings to the third line. Like you said PensFan, it’s all about his versatility. Top that all off with his phenomenal PK abilities as of late (as in, especially good) and it’s making that Shero extension out to be a much better move.
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Its funny how its so hard to find that set up man goal scorer combo. Look at a team like Calgary. Camalleri, Iginla and Jokinin are all shoot first guys. This year Iggy has been the setup man leading the team in assists. Not everyone can shoot the puck at the same time, someones got to set the play up. A set up guy has to be an unselfish player who doesn’t care about getting bashed for getting assists instead of goals. They have high hockey IQ’s, can read the play and create more goals as a line. They can turn a Chris Kunitz into a point a game player and a 190 Lb 33 year old Sykora with nothing more then a great shot and 1 timer into a 30 Goal man. The teams with the set up men never have trouble scoring goals its just a different approach. instead of shooting the puck 528 times to score 56 goals(ovie) they shoot less and try to put wingers and defensemen into postions that increase their chance of scoring. I enjoy a nice setup as much as a nice goal.
Phili B
The center position is the hardest to fill. Good teams are built up the middle. Its a great problem to have. Its a lot easier to have weak wingers and still have some success and our centers make our wingers better.
Phili B
I agree the C position is the most important, but it is not the hardest to fill. Off the top of my head here are the C’s that could be legit top line Centers (in no particular order): Crosby, Malkin, Backstom, M. Richards, Carter, Savard, Parise, Stastny, Getzlaf, Toews, Zetterberg, Datsyuck, Lecavalier, E. Staal, J. Staal, B. Richards, Thornton, Marleau, Kopitar, Briere, Bergeron, Krejci, Jokinen, Boyes, Morrow, Arnott, Sedin, Franzen, Spezza. You also have Backes, Oshie, Mueller all coming up the pike but not there yet.
The list of comparable wings is just shorter. AO, Semin, Kane, Kessel, Heatley, Nash, Perry, St. Louis, Wheeler, Ryan, Gaborik (ten times a year), Iginla, Ribeiro, Kovalchuk, Hossa, Cammalleri, Elias, Havlat, Gagne, Alfredsson.
There are twice as many wings on any given team as there are centers so you would expect more elite level wings but that’s just not the case. The Cs aren’t on the same level as Malkin/Crosby but J. Staal is clearly at the low end of that spectrum. None of the wings are as good as AO either. The point is that there is a larger pool of 1Cs than there is of 1Ws.
Zetterberg, Datsyuck, Franzen. Strong up the middle wins cups. But, you are right, Staal is not at the same level as most of the Cs you mentioned. But my point was that he was a legit C2 when Malkin moves up in certain circumstances (which by the way is a really nice option when your team is down one late in the game, no?). Add that to his solid and still improving defensive skills and you have quite the “wild card” of a player. My only wish is that he would spend the time to learn how to play wing and add that to his resume.
It’s a spirited debate over in Caps land…Seems like most of the consensus for them is:
1 – WSH
2- PITT
3 – PHI
4- BOS
Mike Green does give them an added dimension, but some folks over there were ranking the Pens lower since Pittsburgh’s four players cap hit is about $26.4 million. Well after next season the Caps will have to re-sign Nick Backstrom and Alex Semin. If the two of them, let’s say combine for $12 million a year, that would make their cap hit $26.8 million.
I guess the point is: if you got ‘em, you got to pay ’em. I think it’ll be interesting to see how the teams continue to surround their players. Everyone’s got a bad contract or two (Nylander, Satan, Hatcher, Rathje, etc) it’s been interesting to see how the teams are handling that or stashing them away.
Semin is good/great, but let’s be honest, he is not “once in a generation” talent (I am assuming you are referring to Ocho and Semin). If you asked all of the GM’s in the league who they would build a team around I would guess 4 or 5 names would pop up. I highly doubt Semin would be one of them. This is not a knock on Semin because he is indeed a phenomenal player.
I too am biased, so I would obviously take the Pens core. Especially considering, that part of their core is a goalie.
It will be interesting to see how these teams deal with the cap in the future.
I was actually talking about Mike Green and AO. Semin is a great talent but I agree he is not “once in a generation.” If I were to make the Young Guns core a group of 3 Semin would be the one I’d drop from the Caps.
I thought you may have been referring to Green as well, I had just never heard anyone say he was that calibur of player yet.
He is still going to get better but I already think he is that good. He already has offensive ability that no other Dman in the league can even approach, he’s an amazing skater, and he is vastly under rated in his own end. The difference between his production and the rest of the D in the league is just absurd.
I’m not a big Semin fan because of how he knocked Crosby, but he could join the nhl’s elite group. The european players take a little longer to come into their own. But this year he is 6th in points/game. He started of the year leading the league for about a month before he got injured and most have crowned him the heir to Joe Sakic’s league best wrist shot. Talent wise he’s right up there, for him its about playing 75+ games. He’ll either join the elite crosby ovechkin malkin group or he’ll become the leagues next Gaborik , an immense talent who ends up sitting out significant amounts of the year. There are so many elite players now and they are so close in so many areas its hard to call anyone a once in a generation (25 years) talent.
Phili B
There are a ton of elite players that are very close so I don’t use the “once in a generation term” lightly. Considering the company AO has put himself in during his first 4 years I don’t think you can deny applying that term to him. Considering how young Green is and how vastly superior his offensive skill is to every other Dman in the league I think it applies to him too (see the link in the post above). It has been almost 20 years since we saw a 30 goal Dman and we are witnessing a much, much harder league to score in these days. Green and AO have now led the league in goals for their positions for the second straight year (even with Green missing a whole lot of time), nobody had done that since Coffee/Lemieux in the early 90s.
you can say the same about having 2 100 point men on the same team, i guess what i’m saying is its hard to clearly indicate who actually is the once in a generation player. points per game? playoff success ? most goals lots of different ways to measure it but no one leading in all categories.
Phili B
Just came across this today. Pretty good statement for the Caps’ Young Guns. The top two clutch scorers in the league and the top clutch scoring defenseman. I just hope that kind of performance keeps up in the playoffs.
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