Today's playoff picture and games to watch

by FrankD on Apr 3, 2009 12:19 PM EDT in News

Rewind to a few months back and the only talk of playoffs was how the Penguins ran a very little chance of making it. Now, with only five games remaining on the schedule, the Penguins' playoff chances are more or less secure. In fact one more point pretty much guarantees a playoff berth. All that talk about not making the playoffs has quickly been replaced by talks as to whether or not the Pens can claim home-ice advantage. Let's take a look at where the Pens stand and how other teams are fairing in the Eastern Conference.

Tomorrow's opponent, the Carolina Hurricanes, are surging here toward the end of the season. A few weeks ago Carolina's hopes were much like that of the Pens: borderline eighth seed, trying to stay alive and showing signs of a power surge.

If 11-1-2 isn't a push for the playoffs then I don't know what is.

Last night the Canes kept the Rangers' hopes limited in a 4-2 win at home. Carolina improved to fourth in the Conference, while New York continues to slump their way out of the playoff picture. As of this morning the Rangers are eighth in the East with only four games remaining. Given the fact that 93 points gets you a playoff berth, the Rangers have to finish either 2-2 or 1-0-2 over the next four games.

But that will be hard as the Panthers continue to close position in ninth place with 87 points. Tomas Vokoun has sat out the past three games as head coach Peter DeBoer has favored the likes of backup Craig Anderson. Anderson has picked up four straight wins over his last four starts and posts an impressive 15-6-5 record. Although Vokoun looks a bit shaky lately, odds are he and Anderson may pose as a powerful goaltending duo well past the last regular season game.

The Montreal Canadiens are still alive, improving to 4-0-1 over their last five thanks in part to former Pen Alexei Kovalev picking up three assists in the 5-1 beat down of the Islanders. Montreal is holding down the seventh seed with 90 pts in the East.

I'd imagine last night's 2-1 win over the Senators was too close for comfort as far as the Boston Bruins are concerned but they still managed to get the W. At 110 pts it will take a tremendous breakdown to allow the 101-point, second-seed Capitals to close in and take the Conference title. With five games remaining for each team, Boston needs just one more win to put it out of reach for good.

With a win tomorrow the Penguins can improve to either fourth or fifth depending on the outcome of tonight's Flyers/Maple Leafs game.

Which now brings us to tonight's must-watch games.

Obviously you can decide on your own play list, but with respect to the Penguins I'd say this is about as prioritized a list as you can get.

Flyers/Maple Leafs - 7:00 [Broad Street Hockey/Pension Plan Puppets]
I don't think I have to tell you which team to cheer for in this one. A Philly win, as mentioned earlier, will secure fourth place. For tonight at least. That will change tomorrow thanks in part to the Penguins/Hurricanes game.

Devils/Lightning - 7:00 [In Lou We Trust/Raw Charge]
The Devils are 0-5-1 over their last six. Although the odds are extremely slim, the Penguins still run a chance at taking the number three seed from the Devils. The Devils would have to go either winless over the next five or post a 1-4 record for the Pens to have a chance at doing so. Of course that is all contingent on whether or not Pitt can stay hot and post at least a 3-0-1 or 4-1 record of their own.

Go Lightning.

Panthers/Thrashers - 7:30 [Litterbox Cats/Birdwatcher's Anonymous]
There's no denying the facts; Florida can still catch Pitt. If anything check this game out to get a look at Craig Anderson before he and the Panthers host the Pens on Sunday. You may have to make a tough decision here. Do you cheer on the Panthers in hopes that they kick the Rangers out of the playoff picture, or do you cheer for Atlanta to keep Florida off Pittsburgh's back?

Capitals/Sabres - 7:00 [Japers' Rink/Die by the Blade]
The Pens aren't catching the Caps and the Sabres aren't catching the Pens. Only reason to watch this one is to keep an eye on Ovechkin's point total to see if he closes in on Evgeni Malkin.

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Nice writeup, Frank.

Anderson goes until he loses. And he knows it. DeBoer’s got both Andy and T-Vo on short leashes right now. If the Cats do make it to the dance on the back of Anderson, who do you go with? The overachieving backup or the money guy?

Tough call.

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by Donny Rivette on Apr 3, 2009 1:16 PM EDT reply actions

Oh trust me, Pens fans are no strangers to overachieving backups. We rode Ty Conklin for most of last season, remember? I know goaltending has been an issue for you guys down there pretty much all season but I also find it hard to blame the goaltending when your team has given up the most shots out of any other in the league. The fact that the Panthers can still fight for a playoff spot in light of that really shows what their goaltending is made of. Anderson looks like the hot hand right now and DeBoer is smart to stick with him.

Follow the Penguins on SBN @ Pensburgh.com

by FrankD on Apr 3, 2009 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions

It seems like I do this every week now due to Frank’s great set ups but here is how I see the Pens in regards to other Eastern teams.

Not scared of:
Boston – falling apart for they don’t seem to know how to be as good as they can be. Success can be tricky and Boston is showing it.

New Jersey – you saw that 6-1 game didn’t you? Brodeur is the best ever, except against the Pens for some reason

Florida – just not enough in every aspect of the team to make me think the Pens should be worried

Montreal – too small at forward, too inconsistant, and just too much drama in Montreal to make me think they can make a serious run. This team was ran out of the playoffs early last year and this year’s team is not as good while the East has gotten better.

Some concern:
Philadelphia – they are better than the team that made the Eastern finals last year and the Pens are not as good as they were last year so there is room to worry. I stil think the Pens can beat them but it won’t be the cake-walk that last year was.

Buffalo – scares me because they are an unknown. This team reminds me a little bit of what the Pens have gone through the past two years, with out as much skill (injuries, injuries, injuries to those who matter most). They have a solid goalie, when healthy, and talented forwards, good coaching, a solid D that plays their game well. If they can bring it all together they could surprise someone come playoff time. They aren’t the team they were three years ago and won’t make a deap run, but what they have can catch someone who is sleeping on them.

Rangers – have King Henry and almost nothing else. They have played better since Avery came back but he is not enough, on his own, to make a major impact. He can though be the kind of pest that affects a whole series but we have guys that can take care of him (Talbot, Kennedy, Cooke). They have some talent at forward and if the stars align watch out for a goalie can steel a series away. It will be all for not though if they don’t get those two defenseman back

Avoid like cancer:
The East will come down to one of these 3 teams, plus Pittsburgh

Washington – Ovie, Semin, Federov, Backstrom, and Green will make them a tough out and the Pens have looked weak against them this season. The Caps have always been our wipping boys and somehow there is a rivalry there but this has the look of a brutal 7 gamer that could propal either team to the Finals.

Canes – they are coming together at the right time and bring a similar game to what Pittsburgh plays. There are Stanley Cup champs on that roster and are HOT!!! Watch out!

Life is about one simple choice, get busy living or get busy dying

by Dr Tre on Apr 3, 2009 4:10 PM EDT reply actions

agree with most of this

I watched that Boston-Ottawa game, and in spite of the 2 points for the Bruins, it was yet another illustration of why I’m not worried about them this season. Boston has the look right now of a team that wrapped up the conference pretty quickly and has had too long to sit tight waiting for the playoffs. They have formidable talent, at every position, but right now they’re not playing with any passion whatever. They were completely sleep-walking through that Ottawa game, when on paper they should have been torching them. (Also, God help them if Tim Thomas gets hurt: Manny Fernandez has been mind-numbingly awful in recent weeks.)

I’m still a little worried about Jersey, though they seem to be struggling with injuries to players they cannot afford to be without in the playoffs. Still a dangerous team, though. I’m also worried about Philly (as you say, they’re healthier and better than they were last year) and Carolina (red-hot, with a solid, proven core). I’m writing off Buffalo and Florida because I don’t think either will make the playoffs. Montreal and New York will probably get those last 2 spots, but I don’t see either one going anywhere; Montreal is a mess, as you say, and I’m just not impressed by the Rangers (the fact that Lundqvist plays in New York seems to make people forget that he’s never done anything in the playoffs).

Washington? Tough call. Well, tough call if you think Jose Theodore is capable of carrying a team to the Finals. I think the Caps will go the way of last year’s Canadiens: very solid team done in by shaky goaltending.

We all know better than to count playoff series before they’re won, but the East looks really wide open this year. Given their talent, their playoff experience, the hot streak they’ve been riding, and the competition right now, I’d say the Pens have a better than average chance of being right back in the Finals in a few weeks.

P is for Latrobe.

by holiday park on Apr 3, 2009 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions

I’m also a bit concerned about Jersey even though their record as of late would indicate otherwise. Boston is in prime territory for a first round upset. Toss Montreal in the mix as well.

I’m not ruling out Florida just yet. Have you seen this guy Anderson play? He’s scary when he’s on. For a backup goaltender that’s intimidating enough to keep your guard up.

I really, REALLY want to see the Rangers out of the picture. As I’ve said earlier I don’t feel intimidated or threatened by them in any way. I just don’t want them in the playoffs out of pure spite.

The Canes are just as good as the Pens lately and obviously have a full arsenal to work with. Their offense may not be as potent as Pittsburgh’s but it doesn’t have to be. Cam Ward is unbelievably good, so much to the point that he’s looking like he’s already in playoff mode. He gave up four goals over three games!

Still not scared of Washington. Never was during the regular season and don’t see that changing for the playoffs. Theodore is not going to take that team to the Finals. They remind me a lot of the Flyers: great scorers, decent defense and an average goalie. If you transported their scorers to Florida (or Florida’s goaltenders to Washington) you’d have a real contender on your hands.

Follow the Penguins on SBN @ Pensburgh.com

by FrankD on Apr 3, 2009 5:49 PM EDT up reply actions

I hear what you’re saying about FL. I’m not writing them off based on how they’re playing right now, but on the basis of the math. I just don’t think they’ll make it based on how many games everyone has left.

Re: the Rangers, a part of me would rather have them in. Seeing the boys eliminate them last spring was too viscerally satisfying to not want to see it again.

The Canes are good. Definitely. But as a biased yinzer I’d still take the Pens in a 7-game series.

And yes, just consider Jose Theodore God’s way of offsetting all the negative karma coming out of DC right now. Seeing the Capitals lose in the first round may not be enough to make any of us forget the corruption, the arrogance, or the economic collapse. But for those of us who really hate DC it’s a start.

P is for Latrobe.

by holiday park on Apr 4, 2009 12:31 AM EDT up reply actions