Now that the Pens are in the playoffs for sure, who will they see in Round 1?

by Hooks Orpik on Apr 8, 2009 12:25 PM EDT in News Comment 28 comments

The Pittsburgh Penguins will be doing some post-season dancing. That much, we know for sure. Still up in the air, with most teams having 2-3 games left, is how the seeds will shake out.

Technically, the Pens could end up anywhere from the 4th to the 7th seed and could feasibly end up against Washington, New Jersey, Carolina or Philadelphia in round one.

Though really, the statistical favorite is the Pens end up with the 6th seed, a 78% chance Pittsburgh ends up there according to Sports Club Stats. The same site gives New Jersey a 94% chance of getting the 3rd seed---leaving just 3% remote chances that NJ catches Washington (bumping the Caps to the 3rd seed) or that Philadelphia catches NJ for the Atlantic division title.

So it is looking very likely that the Penguins are going to see Martin Brodeur, Zach Parise and the New Jersey Devils in the opening round of the 2009 playoffs. The other "by the odds" first round matchups, subject to change of course via the actual games played:

(1) Boston v. (8) New York Rangers

(2) Washington v. (7) Montreal

(4) Philadelphia v. (5) Carolina

In case you were wondering, the Pens took the season series 3-1-2 from New Jersey (though it's 3-3-0 from the Devs perspective). But the teams only have played once since January 30th, so both teams are much different now then when they played the bulk of their regular season series.

As always, it'll be interesting to see how everything shakes out down the stretch, but it definitely looks like the stars are aligning for Pittsburgh/New Jersey in the first round. And, at the risk of looking ahead too far, most expect Boston and Washington to defeat two struggling teams in NYR and Montreal. If that were the case, Pittsburgh would be heading to Boston for a second round matchup.

If you can't tell already, it's going to be a much different road through the playoffs for Pittsburgh this season (assuming of course they can hack it) than last year when the Pens took on a 7 seed, 5 seed and 6 seed to make it to the finals.

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the road to the playoffs will be a lot more demanding this year for the pens. As long as they don’t go up against the canes in the first round i’m thinking the pens can make the eastern conferience finals. It will be nice to see how everything plays out. i would still love to see everyones post season pridictions. and maybe a playoffs fantasy pool of some sort. we ca also have another game. find all the spelling a grammar errors in my post.

Lifes rough, wear a helment

by lambofgad on Apr 8, 2009 12:39 PM EDT reply actions

Frank and I are thinking of things to do for the playoffs to keep things interesting and interactive here at Pensburgh. Stay tuned for more info next week.

If anyone has ideas or suggestions, feel free to drop me a line at hookorpik at gmail.com

by Hooks Orpik on Apr 8, 2009 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions

The fact that you’d be facing Brodeur notwithstanding, the Devils are probably the team in the weakest position going into the playoffs. I’m almost surprised Lamoriello hasn’t taken over already, the way they’ve been tailspinning the last couple of weeks…

as lambofgad says, there’s no team that we’d look at and think that they’d definitely beat the Pens, save perhaps Carolina, who pulled something akin to what the Pens did a month ago, going from, “are we gonna make the playoffs?” to “Can we possibly get home ice for a round?” with a scintillating run down the stretch.

That said, I’ve been calling Bill Guerin “third round” since he got to Pittsburgh because I think they’re getting to the ECF….although, it’s been long enough that I forget if that’s necessary to elevate the trade-based draft position that high, or if it’s just advancing past one round of the playoffs….

by ahtrap on Apr 8, 2009 2:00 PM EDT reply actions

the Devils are probably the team in the weakest position going into the playoffs.

Are you forgetting the Habs or just ignoring them because you have no chance at facing them?

by Fehr and Balanced on Apr 8, 2009 7:34 PM EDT up reply actions

Montreal hasn’t been impressive lately by any means, but they are 5-4-1 in their last ten games.

New Jersey is 3-6-1.

by Hooks Orpik on Apr 8, 2009 8:11 PM EDT up reply actions

I like playing NJ first, we’ve had some success against them this year and particularily last game when these teams had their final roster for playoffs.
-The canes are red hot and are kind of scary; they play the same style as pens nullifying the pens speed a bit.
-I’m not scared of Philly but you don’t want to play them first because even if you win it won’t be a short series and they will physically abuse you. The playoffs are a war, and I’d rather play them later or not at all, ideally playing the team they beat up.
- I would rather play either of them if it means home ice with the 4 seed, but thats a bit of a long shot with 2 games left, although mathematically possible.
-The most entertaining would be dropping to the 7th seed and playing the Caps, but thats another war you don’t want early,

Phili B

by ColeHarbour on Apr 8, 2009 2:50 PM EDT reply actions

Assuming it’s safe to assume that the present seeding holds, I’m liking the matchups from a Pens perspective. The Devils are just playing terribly right now; I know they’re dealing with some injury troubles (who isn’t at this point in the year?), but the way the fire has gone out of them since Brodeur got the wins record is just stunning. There isn’t a team I’d rather match up against in the first round.

Now follow my thinking: we’d all be shocked if Montreal or the Rangers won a round this year, so assume Boston and Washington go through to round 2. Would that mean that Pittsburgh plays Boston in round 2 if they beat the Devils? Because, honestly, I like that matchup too.

Fingers crossed . . .

P is for Latrobe.

by holiday park on Apr 8, 2009 3:54 PM EDT reply actions

i think i said this before but the canes and the pens in the easten finals. lets see how that guess will hold up.

Lifes rough, wear a helment

by lambofgad on Apr 8, 2009 3:59 PM EDT reply actions

Pens and Canes have certainly been the best teams over the past 6-8 weeks…Also you have to like Cam Ward (SC Champion) and Marc-Andre Fleury (last year’s EC Champion) more than just about any other goalie in the East.*

*Martin Brodeur’s the huge exception, it should go without saying…Tim Thomas has been great (my Vezina winner) but he’s still never won a playoff series.

by Hooks Orpik on Apr 8, 2009 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions

What about Lundqvist? He hasn’t done much in the NHL playoffs but he is an amazing goalie and won a gold medal.

by Fehr and Balanced on Apr 8, 2009 7:36 PM EDT up reply actions

No doubt Lundqvist is a talented goalie, but the Pens shooters have had his number historically….The Penguins popped 15 goals by Lundqvist in beating him four out of five games last playoffs (though he did have a shutout). So I guess my rationale on that was more from a Pittsburgh perspective.

by Hooks Orpik on Apr 8, 2009 8:16 PM EDT up reply actions

Much like the Pens the Canes started clicking at just the right time. I wouldn’t be surprised to see that matchup in the ECF.

Of course if you told me that two months ago I wouldn’t have believed you at all.

Follow the Penguins on SBN @ Pensburgh.com

by FrankD on Apr 8, 2009 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions

i think i said it just after trade deadline and most people though i was crazy.

Lifes rough, wear a helment

by lambofgad on Apr 8, 2009 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions

I’m hoping we get the Devils, who are still shakey.

Regardless, I want to avoid Carolina a lot. By that, I mean the whole way through the playoffs. I know the Islanders are bad, but a 9-0 beat down is something that I do in NHL 09, not watch on TV. Carolina is playing out of their head’s lately.

PensBurgh penalty - Lavender - 2 minutes for hijynxing.

by Lavender on Apr 8, 2009 4:23 PM EDT reply actions

if your beating teams 9-0 in NHL 09 i think its time to up the difficulty there lavender. lol. and i’ll see what the pens do to the islanders tomorrow before the canes strike that much fear into me.

Lifes rough, wear a helment

by lambofgad on Apr 8, 2009 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions

I’ve not looked into what difficulty settings I’ve got on, never changed it, but I alter the rules by having only icing. Too many random cross checks or trips. Then again, I just play Be A Pro mode…..in which I scored 10 goals in one game. I pin that on some kind of freak occurrence. Please excuse the fact that season resulted in 270 goals and 63 assists….if only Malkin shot more I’d have more A’s!

Also, it’s not so much the Islanders roasting, but their last 10 games have resulted in 9 wins and a SO loss. In that stretch, they’ve been taken to OT twice, and outscored their opponents quite handily.

Though any 9-0 win would do that ;)

PensBurgh penalty - Lavender - 2 minutes for hijynxing.

by Lavender on Apr 8, 2009 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions

270 goals and 63 assists, huh? Ovechkin’s jealous, that’s his dream season too! :)

by Hooks Orpik on Apr 8, 2009 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions

If he did that, there’d be a whole lot of dancing.

He shoots he SCORES! Interpretive Dance Time!

PensBurgh penalty - Lavender - 2 minutes for hijynxing.

by Lavender on Apr 8, 2009 6:36 PM EDT up reply actions

i'm with you

Carolina has been to the Finals twice in the past 6 seasons; they’re more than capable of riding this hot streak right back there.

My spring wish list is as follows:
1. The Pens beat the Devils in the first round, and the Bruins in the second round.
2. Carolina wins a bruising first-round series against Philly, and a bruising second-round series against Washington (because, really, it’s a brighter world when the Pens are the only ex-Patrick Division team left standing).
3. The Pens step up and play with urgency, and the Canes run out of gas, in the conference finals.
4. Pittsburgh beats the Red Wings in the Finals. Marian Hossa held scoreless for the series.

P is for Latrobe.

by holiday park on Apr 8, 2009 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions

If #4 comes true i would just die. your wish list is close to mine but i don’t see the caps pass the first round.

Lifes rough, wear a helment

by lambofgad on Apr 8, 2009 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Well, if you’re wishing out loud, you might as well wish big. :)

I see the Caps getting to the second round, because Montreal would have to win a playoff series to stop that from happening. That series will be quite the tour de force of bad goaltending: why do I think the final score of each game will be something like 19-17?

P is for Latrobe.

by holiday park on Apr 8, 2009 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions

i just think after a dissapointing season the canadians will have more to play for to salvage their pride that they lost pior to the allstar break. And even with only 1 good line the habs will give the caps a run or thier money. There is also a little more play off experiance in the habs dressing room. Jose Theodore might have a fun outting in the montreal press for this post season match-up. i’m expecting some good headlines out of montreal

Lifes rough, wear a helment

by lambofgad on Apr 8, 2009 5:45 PM EDT up reply actions

That series will be quite the tour de force of bad goaltending

So you haven’t watched Theodore since Xmas?

by Fehr and Balanced on Apr 8, 2009 7:40 PM EDT up reply actions

Theodore’s had an up and down season (mainly up) but I think more people are going on his history of playoff meltdowns to project future performance more than anything. Theodore will have his chance to quiet the doubters but until then, fair or not, the knock on him will remain.

by Hooks Orpik on Apr 8, 2009 8:18 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah the knock remains but he was flat out dominant against MIN last season in the playoffs. COL doesn’t face DET if he doesn’t stand on his head. He looked bad v. DET but he was sick (well documented) and DET made a lot of goalies look bad. He was bad early in the season so his numbers don’t look great but since xmas he has been everything the Caps needed and more. I honestly don’t remember him losing us any games. He has had some mediocre outings but they usually coincided with mediocre outings by the team. When people continue to keep reiterating the same old crap about him it pretty much shows that they just aren’t watching him play.

by Fehr and Balanced on Apr 8, 2009 8:34 PM EDT up reply actions

He has had some mediocre outings but they usually coincided with mediocre outings by the team

Good goalies sometimes steal games and get their teams wins they don’t deserve. I don’t think Theodore’s done that too much, even though he has had good stretches this season. I agree with you that most the Theodore naysayers probably haven’t followed his play that closely this season….But the fact remains that Theodore’s NHL playoff record is still 19 wins – 24 losses. We’ll see if he can turn his playoff perception around, like Marian Hossa did last year.

by Hooks Orpik on Apr 8, 2009 9:28 PM EDT up reply actions

Who you got beating the Caps? Montreal with shaky goaltending and missing two of their top 3 D? Or NYR with a questionable D corps, terrible PP, and anemic offense?

by Fehr and Balanced on Apr 8, 2009 7:38 PM EDT up reply actions

The Pens are more than likely going to end up playing the Devils and I am alright with that. It won’t be an easy series by any means, but they will win and carry that momentum forward.

by Smitty 87 on Apr 9, 2009 11:49 AM EDT reply actions