You know, I started scribbling this post on like three different occasions, was gonna make a total joke out of it, like, “This is me shifting into enemy mode!” and all that, complete with nicknames (Fedestink-o!), and eventually ended up canning the idea in favor of, well, whatever the rest of this post becomes.

And it isn’t because of any respect for you guys, cuz how much respect can you have for a bunch of militant pengweeners (cookie for whoever gets the reference)…actually, it’s all about that, I do appreciate your letting me hang around Frank, both in the first place as a hostile, and then over the course of the season, and your thoughts, along with those of Hooks and JDunman (send out an APB!), and the rest of the clowns populating this site became a must read daily stop for me.

Frankly, start or middle of this season, I, nor most of you, saw this rematch coming. When the Pens traded for Guerin, I started calling him third round immediately, because I figured he’dhelp get you past the first round, NO MATTER WHO YOU PLAYED, and I figured that the Pens had a ceiling of the ECF. I also was scared of Cam Ward and Carolina going into the playoffs, and, well, you saw how that turned out.

So, what I’m about to predict might just be homeristic blowhardiness. There’s always some of that on both sides of the equation. But then again, I hope I’ve proven not-clueless enough for this analysis to merit a nanosecond of actual thought, and not just a knee jerk “but what about this, you’re WRONG!’ reaction.

Bettman’s baby boy Cindy ain’t gonna win a cup this year!

(Umm…err..woops, that’s the frenemy post I wanted to scribble coming out again….let’s try that again…)

There’s been a lot of focus on how much the Pens have improved, and whether that will be enough to overcome the perceived talent advantage of the Red Wings. Some Pens fans say (using a BS strawman frame, which I usually hate, so I’m calling myself out on it), sure, we lost Hossa, BUT THAT JUST MEANS OUR WHOLE TEAM WILL BE GUNNING FOR HIM! WOOOO! Except, as Malsby points out in his excellent frontpaged post, a significant portion of the current Pens weren’t there last year. For those who were, maybe they get the idea that when you rent a player, there’s a chance that player will walk, witness the Milwaukee Brewers and CC Sabathia last year. Perhaps, in comparison to that situation, there are players in that locker room who don’t look askance at a guy foregoing the biggest money (Sabathia going to the Yankees) to take a shot where he thinks he’s got the best chance for a Cup.

Put it this way, I’m of the opinion that the Pens vs Hossa hype is overblown, and while each would love the chance to show that the other is wrong, it’s a side issue to the circus that is the SCF.

If the Pens are gonna win, Detroit injuries will play a role. Last year, Detroit cruised to an easy victory (the Pens taking it to the 6th game notwithstanding) in large part because Sid was hurt and Geno hit the wall. This year, it’s the Pens that are largely intact, with Gonchar’s knee perhaps equal to Franzen’s concussion issue from last year, and it’s Detroit that are the walking wounded going into the Finals. I mean, at this point, who know what a “lower body injury” means? Did Lidstrom take a puck to the groin at any point of the ECF game 3? But not knowing how well Lidstrom or Datsyuk are going to play…or not being able to count on their usual, high level performances, anyway, should give every Red Wings fan pause.

More than that, however, the Pens hopes will rise because they’ve been here before, and they’ve seen close at hand what it takes to win the Stanley Cup. Last year, it was being done to them, and Pens fans have to hope that they take those lessons learned, and use them against the teachers from last year. Add to that the change in guiding philosophies, from Therrien’s tighter styles, to Bylsma’s more aggressive, more attacking hockey, which better fits the personnel the Pens have, including the 2 stars, and the Pens overall product at this point of the playoffs is better than what they had going into the SCF last year. I’d even argue the product is significantly improved, for reasons pointed out in other posts on this site.

The question, then, as everyone seems to acknowledge, is whether it’s enough to overcome the Red Wings, still the acknowledged masters. As are the Pens more experienced, so too are the Red Wings. And I’m not talking about the old goats, the Lidstroms or the Drapers of the world. I’m not even talking about the middle aged (for hockey) stars and superstars, the likes of Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Holmstrom, but rather the depth of the Red Wings, the still in their 20s types like Filpula and Stuart (actually, I just realized I have no idea what age Brad Stuart is) and the gang, including Darren Helm who put on an absolute clinic on the penalty kill against the Hawks on Wednesday before burying the WCF winning goals. This is a kid who has ZERO regular season goals, and now 5 career playoff goals. He’s not on your radars, and yet, he’s going to be an important part of the equation over the next week and change. The time he gets on the ice will necessary fall if Draper and Datsyuk come back healthy, but when he’s out there, Helm is a speed demon and an enthusiastic, if not particularly huge hitter, and as shown Wednesday, he can light the lamp, too. When one of you guys cite Satan as a reason the Pens can win, I mentally cancel him out with Darren Helm.

I go on at length about Helm because he’s a perfect example of the still unparalleled depth the Wings bring to this party, another facet of which becomes clear when you consider that in the WCF, Dan Cleary was the leading goal scorer for the Red Wings. In the course of a year, this guy has gone from a pretty decent trivia answer (First guy from Newfoundland to get his name on the Cup) to a player who’s contributing big goals at opportune times. This binge in the WCF actually started at the end of the Anaheim series, when he was credited/did the dirty work (no matter what you think of the goal (shoulda been waived, but I’ll take it! Especially after the Hossa non goal stolen (by Brad Watson blowing the whistle) earlier in the series) do I have enough parentheses in this sentence? No? How about one more!) to score the series clincher against the Ducks.

I definitely agree with whoever it was on this site that posited that the series will ultimately come down to the winner between the Pens aggression game vs the Wings possession game. But there are enough peripheral pieces in the Wings arsenal to disturb that neat little formula, enough so that I think we might be in for a repeat performance of last year’s end result. I foresee the Red Wings, much to your chagrin, once again parading around the ice at Mellon Arena, holding aloft Lord Stanley’s Cup, having finished the Pens in 6 games.

This is thoroughly a guess, but I see the Pens taking game 1, the Red Wings striking back in games 2 and 3, Pens evening things out at Mellon in 4, before the Red Wings taking care of business at home for game 5, and finishing the season in Pittsburgh.  Since this is precisely how I predicted the WCF to go, pardon me for hoping a similar series takes place in the SCF….

All that said, I’ve been able to argue for a Wings win in 7, or a Pens win in 7, too. Frankly, I’ve been able to convince myself that the Pens could win in 6, but as we’ve seen so far these playoffs, the Pens don’t seem to have that home ice closeout in them this year, so if Pittsburgh is going to win, it’ll be in 5 or 7 at JLA. Since I haven’t been able to convince myself of the 5 game scenario, either way, if the Pens win, it’ll have to be a game 7….

Have at it, droogies.