Should the Wings go on to win the Cup despite their penalty-killing problems, they'll be defying history. No Cup-winner has killed off less than 80 percent of opposition power plays during the regular season since the 1991-92 Pittsburgh Penguins had a 79.9 percent success rate
Detroit's postseason PK is currently 71.4% overall, 65.5% on the road.
They've allowed a PP goal in 15 out of 19 games during the playoffs.
about 1 year ago
FrankD
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ouch
i guess i know what they’ll be doing in practice today
Lets see if Draper and Datsyuk back in the lineup help them out any…though I think their PK % was bad when those guys were in the earlier series.
"Government is not reason, it is not eloquence, it is force; like fire, a troublesome servant and a fearful master. Never for a moment should it be left to irresponsible action." - George Washington
by Hockey Beard in SLC on Jun 3, 2009 7:16 PM EDT reply actions
Draper’s hasn’t played much this postseason, and yeah, the PK was bad when Datsyuk was in the lineup earlier…
Interesting to think that even though the ’Wings one 2 games already, Babcock wants to change the line up more than a little bit. With the play of Abdelkater (sp?), Helm and Leino, who gets taken out for Dats and Draper?
"Government is not reason, it is not eloquence, it is force; like fire, a troublesome servant and a fearful master. Never for a moment should it be left to irresponsible action." - George Washington
by Hockey Beard in SLC on Jun 3, 2009 7:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Abdelkader and Holmstrom will
probably be the guys out…Holmstrom sliding into the boards in Game 3 looked brutal
2 more wins for back to back on the Pens and a repeat Go Wings!!!
by TuLoRocks2008 on Jun 3, 2009 9:02 PM EDT up reply actions
i agree with holmstrom and that is a big loss but i would keep applicator (his nickname here since its easy to spell). ab has been pretty good this series and you cant discount the goals hes getting, they have both been back brakers
" I AM CAPATIN CHAOS, and this is my trusty Sidekick cato. Say hello Cato"
Dom Deluise 1933-2009, Cannonball run
by oldtimehockey09 on Jun 3, 2009 9:05 PM EDT up reply actions
yea no doubt he has been good
but for some reason i like Leino better of the 2 he just seems to create more chances and already has a highlight reel goal earlier this season and will be very good…i believe Babcock and co. like Leino in there more than Abdelkader as well…either way i guess for me i wouldn’t mind seeing one or the other and yes Homer is a big loss up front for screens but he has been teaching Helm to do that and he did it well in Game 2
2 more wins for back to back on the Pens and a repeat Go Wings!!!
by TuLoRocks2008 on Jun 3, 2009 9:21 PM EDT up reply actions
so long as a penguin doesnt seperate helms brain from his skull with a hit. but the highlight goals dont really appear in the playoffs, particularly the finals.
" I AM CAPATIN CHAOS, and this is my trusty Sidekick cato. Say hello Cato"
Dom Deluise 1933-2009, Cannonball run
by oldtimehockey09 on Jun 3, 2009 9:22 PM EDT up reply actions
no i know...just meant
he has better overall skill from what i see and a lot of red wings fans and personnel would probably agree with me there…and yes Helm is a little guy but he is proving to be very very tough taking those hits and continuing to dish them out…love it.
2 more wins for back to back on the Pens and a repeat Go Wings!!!
by TuLoRocks2008 on Jun 3, 2009 9:24 PM EDT up reply actions
also those 2 Abdelkader goals although i loved seeing em
obviously…his first goal set up by a nice pass behind the net by Leino…2nd one ur defense was just awful and Fleury should of saved it…also Leino’s wrap around yesterday set up a goal by Zetterberg.
2 more wins for back to back on the Pens and a repeat Go Wings!!!
by TuLoRocks2008 on Jun 3, 2009 9:26 PM EDT up reply actions
+1 for not being like the LARGE majority of redwing fans that post on pensburgh
" I AM CAPATIN CHAOS, and this is my trusty Sidekick cato. Say hello Cato"
Dom Deluise 1933-2009, Cannonball run
by oldtimehockey09 on Jun 3, 2009 9:26 PM EDT up reply actions
our fans from W I M
are usually good in here they were saying i believe?
2 more wins for back to back on the Pens and a repeat Go Wings!!!
by TuLoRocks2008 on Jun 3, 2009 9:27 PM EDT up reply actions
they are. its the people from elswhere who call themselves wings fans
" I AM CAPATIN CHAOS, and this is my trusty Sidekick cato. Say hello Cato"
Dom Deluise 1933-2009, Cannonball run
by oldtimehockey09 on Jun 3, 2009 9:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Exactly, its the ugly/flukey goals that win the Cup…as can be seen from last years Finals.
"Government is not reason, it is not eloquence, it is force; like fire, a troublesome servant and a fearful master. Never for a moment should it be left to irresponsible action." - George Washington
by Hockey Beard in SLC on Jun 3, 2009 9:24 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah, we already got our butt goal for the series, the Red Wings need to come up with a new way of fluky scoring….
lol, is that what they are known as now. the perinneal flower butt goals?
" I AM CAPATIN CHAOS, and this is my trusty Sidekick cato. Say hello Cato"
Dom Deluise 1933-2009, Cannonball run
by oldtimehockey09 on Jun 3, 2009 11:58 PM EDT up reply actions
One thing we need to make sure we do in Game 4 is draw more penalties. Yes it was great that we scored on 2/3 PPs (even if the calls were questionable…blah blah…we’ve hashed and re-hashed this out multiple times, lets move on), but think of how the game could have been with another couple PPs more!
I think the key to the rest of the series is to force the Wings’ take those penalties that will open up the ice for us and allow us to capitalize on one of our strengths and the Wings’ weakness.
"Government is not reason, it is not eloquence, it is force; like fire, a troublesome servant and a fearful master. Never for a moment should it be left to irresponsible action." - George Washington
by Hockey Beard in SLC on Jun 3, 2009 9:14 PM EDT reply actions
we should be more focused on the 5 on 5 play which is starting to balance out in the pens favor. if guerin pots his attempt early in the game on that odd man rush and kunitz punches his in, all of red wing nation is scared because we would have just broken osgood. if the pens keep on keepn on i think the guy will be fine. they are getting more and more chances which will make you especially happy since it will put more pressure on the wings and likely lead to more pp chances
" I AM CAPATIN CHAOS, and this is my trusty Sidekick cato. Say hello Cato"
Dom Deluise 1933-2009, Cannonball run
by oldtimehockey09 on Jun 3, 2009 9:16 PM EDT up reply actions
we should be more focused on the 5 on 5 play which is starting to balance out in the pens favor.
All except for the 2nd Period of Game 3…that’s what worries me. I don’t want the Wings to get on a tear and be on the verge of blowing it out in their favor. PPs help keep the Wings in their own zone and help us with puck possession.
I think you’re right though, if Kunitz and Billy get those pucks in, Ozzie just let in 6 goals in one game a la Varlamov Game 7.
"Government is not reason, it is not eloquence, it is force; like fire, a troublesome servant and a fearful master. Never for a moment should it be left to irresponsible action." - George Washington
by Hockey Beard in SLC on Jun 3, 2009 9:21 PM EDT up reply actions
"it will put more pressure on the wings and likely lead to more pp chances"
good play in general is the best way to generate power plays. players start pushing the envelope & do things more likely to get called cuz they need to and hope they don’t get caught.
I personally think that the refs got fed up with the penalties in the 3rd period of G3 and called Eriksson on a penalty mostly on merit of the compounded ones before. The penalties happened because the Pens kept Detroit holed up in their own zone and there was a tired line out on the ice for the Wings.
"Government is not reason, it is not eloquence, it is force; like fire, a troublesome servant and a fearful master. Never for a moment should it be left to irresponsible action." - George Washington
by Hockey Beard in SLC on Jun 3, 2009 9:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Ok so I keep reading how the Penguins have finally evened out with Detroit after game 3, etc. etc. And you specifically mention 5-on-5 play.
I know you guys are in love with your team, and rightly so, but keep it a bit real. Detroit dominated Pittsburgh at 5-on-5 in game 3. It sucks when it happens, and believe me my own team has been on the wrong end of it before, but it is what it is. The “ifs” you cite are completely overwhelmed by the 4 or 5 posts the Wings hit.
I don’t know about if they got dominated in 5-5 play, cause the first 10 minutes were pretty solid, and the 3rd period was solid for the Pens.
I concede that our squad got their butts handed to them in the 2nd though, but still, the Pens capitalized on the chances they got, while the Red Wings didn’t.
Fleury saved the game in the 2nd, plain and simple.
"Government is not reason, it is not eloquence, it is force; like fire, a troublesome servant and a fearful master. Never for a moment should it be left to irresponsible action." - George Washington
by Hockey Beard in SLC on Jun 4, 2009 12:06 AM EDT up reply actions
Well all I can say is that the Corsi differential is pretty convincing. 16 more shots directed at the Pittsburgh net than against the Detroit net is indicative of a huge edge in meaningful possession. This is what I saw watching the game.
The Pens capitalized on their chances, while the Red Wings didn’t
True, but that’s more luck tha anything. The Wings hitting 4 or 5 posts is…well… it’s what Pitts complained about, especially in game 1. The thing is though, that the Wings had the significant possession edge in both games 1 and 3 (it’s hard to see as a fan, but I’m only mildly cheering for the Wings so I like to think I can be a little more unbiased about it), so you could say that the Wings deserved to win both games 1 and 3.
I thought that the Pens were only out-shot by 9? or are you referring to something else?
"Government is not reason, it is not eloquence, it is force; like fire, a troublesome servant and a fearful master. Never for a moment should it be left to irresponsible action." - George Washington
by Hockey Beard in SLC on Jun 4, 2009 12:19 AM EDT up reply actions
They were, but if you click the link I linked, you get to see the shots-attempted differential, and at even strength. It’s usually more indicative of possession edges than the shots +/- that the box-scores provide, because they include PP shots. PP time is usually unevenly distributed, which skews the counts.
shots attempted differential is skewed also. the pens could be forcing bad shots and shots from the perimiter.
again goes back to your earlier point that stats are misleading
" I AM CAPATIN CHAOS, and this is my trusty Sidekick cato. Say hello Cato"
Dom Deluise 1933-2009, Cannonball run
by oldtimehockey09 on Jun 4, 2009 12:25 AM EDT up reply actions
But they didn’t.
My earlier point was that the PK stat thing was misleading. That’s only in this case though. In most instances a team with such a horrendous PK would probably not even be in the finals – it wouldn’t be because of the PK though, but because their defence is horrible (and the PK is correspondingly bad).
But PP shots are valid, because they still count if its a goal. You can’t just say: “Oh, well…they scored on a PP, but it doesn’t really count because it skews the even strength shot differential”.
The Penguins made the Red Wings pay on the PP, its what won the game.
"Government is not reason, it is not eloquence, it is force; like fire, a troublesome servant and a fearful master. Never for a moment should it be left to irresponsible action." - George Washington
by Hockey Beard in SLC on Jun 4, 2009 12:26 AM EDT up reply actions
Look I understand that, but as you have experienced, the officiating in this series has been, wonky, at best. And that’s not something that either team really controls (outside them not taking the really obvious penalties). Y’know?
And including PP time REALLY tilts the ice towards the team who got more PPs. ES is really the only ice time context where both ends of the ice matter. And when you’re talking about hockey fundamentals (defending, transitioning, driving the puck north, maintaining offensive zone presence)… you only get ALL of that at even strength.
the officiating in this series has been, wonky,
wonky…great word
" I AM CAPATIN CHAOS, and this is my trusty Sidekick cato. Say hello Cato"
Dom Deluise 1933-2009, Cannonball run
by oldtimehockey09 on Jun 4, 2009 12:31 AM EDT up reply actions
correct. but again my contention is that there is a huge disparit between shots on goal and shots attempted it is largely due to the pens getting in shooting alnes and bad angle shots.
" I AM CAPATIN CHAOS, and this is my trusty Sidekick cato. Say hello Cato"
Dom Deluise 1933-2009, Cannonball run
by oldtimehockey09 on Jun 4, 2009 12:33 AM EDT up reply actions
spell fail
that IF there is a huge disparity between
" I AM CAPATIN CHAOS, and this is my trusty Sidekick cato. Say hello Cato"
Dom Deluise 1933-2009, Cannonball run
by oldtimehockey09 on Jun 4, 2009 12:34 AM EDT up reply actions
Did you think that happened though? I don’t think so. I saw a lot of awesome Detroit scoring chances in close, but they were ultimately driven wide the majority of the time.
The Pens had something like 18 shots blocked…so I think you could argue that it did.
"Government is not reason, it is not eloquence, it is force; like fire, a troublesome servant and a fearful master. Never for a moment should it be left to irresponsible action." - George Washington
by Hockey Beard in SLC on Jun 4, 2009 12:36 AM EDT up reply actions
I thought the Pens applied the shot block on a lot of attempted shots that were great scoring chances.
they did but doesnt that go in the shot attmpted coloumn but if its blocked it doesnt get credited as a shot on goal?
" I AM CAPATIN CHAOS, and this is my trusty Sidekick cato. Say hello Cato"
Dom Deluise 1933-2009, Cannonball run
by oldtimehockey09 on Jun 4, 2009 12:37 AM EDT up reply actions
so now we are getting to the meat and potatoes portion of the convo. or fish and chips if your english
so is there a large disparity. if so then we need to look at why there is a large disparity b/w shots attempted and shots on goal. to bad there isnt a stat for block shots attempted and suceeded or something. really good convo to this point
" I AM CAPATIN CHAOS, and this is my trusty Sidekick cato. Say hello Cato"
Dom Deluise 1933-2009, Cannonball run
by oldtimehockey09 on Jun 4, 2009 12:40 AM EDT up reply actions
see with out the block shots/attempts stat line one can easily say that they were either attempting bad shots or there were just horrible shooters shooting the puck. yes i know being in the finals this is a bit of an insane arguement point but it still is a valid one. no matter how dumb
" I AM CAPATIN CHAOS, and this is my trusty Sidekick cato. Say hello Cato"
Dom Deluise 1933-2009, Cannonball run
by oldtimehockey09 on Jun 4, 2009 12:42 AM EDT up reply actions
Well, big-picture looking isn’t my forte. BUT, luckily, there are Edmonton Oilers bloggers who look at this stuff in great great detail. I’m not sure if you are familair with them. If you aren’t, I’d direct you to vhockey.blogspot.com – lots of great stuff there including stuff like correlations between Corsi and scoring chances. Obviously not every attempted shot is a scoring chance, and not every scoring chance is even an attempted shot, y’know? But both are driven by possession, so it makes sense that both are correlated.
I agree, good convo. Thanks for this.
I agree that they are logically correlated, but Hockey is so much more than numbers and statistical analysis (I know you’d agree with that).
On paper, a team may ‘look’ better, or have better stats than another, but it simply comes down to when they strap on their gear and go out and battle, who ends up with the better score at the end of the night. Stats help us to look at trends and why a certain team may have a better chance, but thats just what it is, trends and chances not a prophecy for the future.
I’m gonna go ahead and third the opinion of a high quality debate goin’ on…Man, how did I ever survive without this place.
"Government is not reason, it is not eloquence, it is force; like fire, a troublesome servant and a fearful master. Never for a moment should it be left to irresponsible action." - George Washington
by Hockey Beard in SLC on Jun 4, 2009 12:53 AM EDT up reply actions
I don’t hail myself as a big stat guy. I mean, I definitely thing there are certain things you can’t dispute in terms of stats like, well, the obvious goals and points. Can you imagine someone saying, “Nuh uh. His 50 goals were more like 22. Those other 28 were complete BS.”
But in all seriousness, I’ve never banked much in Corsi numbers. I get the whole Corsi thing but I dunno – I just think perception is reality in some things. Stats only weigh in so much. Just my two cents.
Follow the Penguins on SBN @ Pensburgh.com and twitter.
Actually I think some 50 goal scorers are horrible players. One would be Ilya Kovalchuk (at least before this season). The key to hockey is not scoring but outscoring, and I’m always more impressed by the +/- leaders than the scoreboard leaders.
by R O on Jun 4, 2009 1:20 AM EDT up reply actions
good lord what did i miss. theres like 100 comments on this thread now.
" I AM CAPATIN CHAOS, and this is my trusty Sidekick cato. Say hello Cato"
Dom Deluise 1933-2009, Cannonball run
by oldtimehockey09 on Jun 4, 2009 1:29 AM EDT up reply actions
nearly every shot from the top of the circle out is blocked or deflected. in tight yes there are great oppertunities. i havent looked at the stat but by your reasoning the pens then got out played several times by the canes who thre the puck at the net. in one game the pens blocked or forced 41 shots wide
" I AM CAPATIN CHAOS, and this is my trusty Sidekick cato. Say hello Cato"
Dom Deluise 1933-2009, Cannonball run
by oldtimehockey09 on Jun 4, 2009 12:36 AM EDT up reply actions
Are you talking about game 3 and game 4? I thought Carolina was the better team in those two games too. But, shit happens.
ah but should the better team not be able to figure a way to get the darn puck on net?
" I AM CAPATIN CHAOS, and this is my trusty Sidekick cato. Say hello Cato"
Dom Deluise 1933-2009, Cannonball run
by oldtimehockey09 on Jun 4, 2009 12:41 AM EDT up reply actions
Exactly. The term “better team” is subjective, unless you look at the final score, which would say that the Penguins were the better team in those two games.
"Government is not reason, it is not eloquence, it is force; like fire, a troublesome servant and a fearful master. Never for a moment should it be left to irresponsible action." - George Washington
by Hockey Beard in SLC on Jun 4, 2009 12:43 AM EDT up reply actions
Well yeah but the problem with that outlook is an argument like this:
“The Pens won the last game. Thus they were the better team. Thus they will likely win the next game.”
Now, that doesn’t really mesh with what you saw in game 3, does it? If you repeat game 3 a thousand times (and then copy the results to game 4), are you confident that Pittsburgh will win?
yes, we have mad max talbot :P
" I AM CAPATIN CHAOS, and this is my trusty Sidekick cato. Say hello Cato"
Dom Deluise 1933-2009, Cannonball run
by oldtimehockey09 on Jun 4, 2009 12:47 AM EDT up reply actions
i give it a 8-10 at home and a 50 50 on the road in all seriousness
" I AM CAPATIN CHAOS, and this is my trusty Sidekick cato. Say hello Cato"
Dom Deluise 1933-2009, Cannonball run
by oldtimehockey09 on Jun 4, 2009 12:47 AM EDT up reply actions
I’m not trying to determine factually whether Pittsburgh will win Game 4, I am rehashing Game 3 and saying that intangible things (like lucky bounces, and the refs calling penalties at certain times) were in favor of the Penguins, which helped them to win.
"Government is not reason, it is not eloquence, it is force; like fire, a troublesome servant and a fearful master. Never for a moment should it be left to irresponsible action." - George Washington
by Hockey Beard in SLC on Jun 4, 2009 12:48 AM EDT up reply actions
Of course. What’s done is done. But originally I commented because I read that “the tide had turned at 5-on-5”, with the prediction that the Pens would win in 6 if Sid starts scoring. So I am debating, really, that predicition going forward.
i think it has a huge impact. we have seen in the games that the wings are haveing a hard time answering genos play as well as jordan staals line. particularly last game. sid gets on track and there is a problem in motown
" I AM CAPATIN CHAOS, and this is my trusty Sidekick cato. Say hello Cato"
Dom Deluise 1933-2009, Cannonball run
by oldtimehockey09 on Jun 4, 2009 12:58 AM EDT up reply actions
But that debate is based on the ‘what if’ of Sidney starting to produce at or near his pre-finals numbers…which is another debate entirely.
I am not going to debate the validity of that prediction, because the thought of beating Detroit 4 in a row (with 1 at Detroit) seems much more daunting than just focusing on Game 4.
"Government is not reason, it is not eloquence, it is force; like fire, a troublesome servant and a fearful master. Never for a moment should it be left to irresponsible action." - George Washington
by Hockey Beard in SLC on Jun 4, 2009 1:00 AM EDT up reply actions
Fair enough. I had this long-winded debate at FromTheRink about Sid’s production. Don’t get me wrong, I think Sid is a difference maker, but his pre-finals numbers were propped up by huge shooting percentages that he hasn’t been able to sustain over the last two regular seasons.
Suffice to say, I think this is also luck. I don’t believe in “clutch play” insofar as I think a lot of it is based on faulty assumptions (e.g. “Sid wants it more now” – you mean he didn’t want it before? etc.)
by R O on Jun 4, 2009 1:02 AM EDT up reply actions
Agreed. It all goes back to those intangible ‘lucky bounces’ that aren’t correlated by statistic numbers.
"Government is not reason, it is not eloquence, it is force; like fire, a troublesome servant and a fearful master. Never for a moment should it be left to irresponsible action." - George Washington
by Hockey Beard in SLC on Jun 4, 2009 1:03 AM EDT up reply actions
But that’s the point. When I want to analyze a team’s performance, it’s always to predict forward. So a stat that remove lucky bounces is actually awesome, because going forward the bounces can be totally different.
by R O on Jun 4, 2009 1:07 AM EDT up reply actions
Part of the reason for a 7 game series is to negate the influence that lucky bounces have in determining the winner of the series.
Lucky bounces aren’t correlated with any statistics I know, so how would you need to eliminate them from statistical analysis?
"Government is not reason, it is not eloquence, it is force; like fire, a troublesome servant and a fearful master. Never for a moment should it be left to irresponsible action." - George Washington
by Hockey Beard in SLC on Jun 4, 2009 1:09 AM EDT up reply actions
As a guy who has been really fascinated by this stuff, let me say this – 7 games is not at all enough to negate lucky bounces. Sometimes 82 games aren’t enough (see Canucks, Vancouver).
Goal differential over the short term is hugely affected by luck. It all stems from small sample size and how changing the outcome of a single event (i.e. goal vs. post) affects the end result so profoundly.
by R O on Jun 4, 2009 1:13 AM EDT up reply actions
To follow up to this, predicting the results of single games going forward is really a fool’s errand (and yet, like all hockey fans, I engage in it). Luck plays an absolutely huge role. Playing good hockey gives you an edge for sure. But the edge is always smaller than the difference between two teams’ skill levels.
by R O on Jun 4, 2009 1:16 AM EDT up reply actions
predicting the results of single games going forward is really a fool’s errand (and yet, like all hockey fans, I engage in it)
As do all fans I believe.
Thanks for the conversation, I’m off to bed.
"Government is not reason, it is not eloquence, it is force; like fire, a troublesome servant and a fearful master. Never for a moment should it be left to irresponsible action." - George Washington
by Hockey Beard in SLC on Jun 4, 2009 1:17 AM EDT up reply actions
exactly
that is exactly what I have seen in this series: the difference between these two teams has been less than luck in each of the three games. The teams are closely matched, and thus the bounces have determined the games.
www.californiagoldenblogs.com
Agreed, Goal differential is not a good stat for playoff hockey (or even regular season matchups). For example, Team A vs. Team B.
Game 1: 5-1 Team A
Game 2: 1-0 Team B
Game 3: 6-1 Team A
Game 4: 1-0 Team B
Game 5: 1-0 Team B
Game 6: 1-0 Team B
Team B wins the series but loses Goal Differential by -5.
(overly simplified I know…but hey)
"Government is not reason, it is not eloquence, it is force; like fire, a troublesome servant and a fearful master. Never for a moment should it be left to irresponsible action." - George Washington
by Hockey Beard in SLC on Jun 4, 2009 1:17 AM EDT up reply actions
Depends on how you define “better”, I guess. My definition really hinges on possession – denying the opponent the puck, getting the puck, keeping the puck, and turning possession of the puck into opportunities to score.
heres a hypothetical. say you have sid, geno, mario, wayne, roenick, brett hull on a team. the other siade has some middle of the road players. the middle of the road guys throw 40 SOG. while the dream team throws 15 on goal and wins 4-1. in the prosses the dream team rack up a whopping 20 minutes of possession vs 40 for the wanna be’s. clearly because of the names the dream team is better. some times puck possesion can be misleading also. not often, but sometimes
" I AM CAPATIN CHAOS, and this is my trusty Sidekick cato. Say hello Cato"
Dom Deluise 1933-2009, Cannonball run
by oldtimehockey09 on Jun 4, 2009 12:46 AM EDT up reply actions
That’s not exactly a realistic scenario though. No team will have that much talent at once (not even Detroit and Pittsburgh, both of whom are surfeit with talent).
And 40 vs. 20 minutes of possession is a huge disparity. In that scenario I’d question:
- How did the dream team players not dominate their opponents in defensive zone puck battles and get the puck out of the zone, thus preventing such a high possession edge?
- How were the dream team players denied access to the offensive zone in such a successful manner?
- How did the dream team players lose so many faceoffs (as they must have in order to have been pinned in their own end so much) against scrubs?
If this hypothetical were actually realizable, then I’d have to conclude that Wayne et al were actually not very good hockey players.
lol you guys suck dream team!
what im trying to get at with the hypo is that time on attack (inside the opponents blue line) and a low shot attmpted/SOG differintial as far mor indicative of a teams domminance rather the solely TOP and shots attempted
" I AM CAPATIN CHAOS, and this is my trusty Sidekick cato. Say hello Cato"
Dom Deluise 1933-2009, Cannonball run
by oldtimehockey09 on Jun 4, 2009 12:56 AM EDT up reply actions
In the extreme case you would be correct. However I doubt the case can be made that Detroit v. Pittsburgh is a re-enactment of Dream Team vs. Scrubs, y’know? And the above points (how the heck did those guys not win the puck battles in order to regain possession, etc.) still stand.
TOP is misleading, one team can get bottled up in the nuetral zone and just throw a puck at the net from the red line and still get cred for a sog. we have seen it alot this series where a team particularly the pens have gotten bottled up and lob a sfotie in on goal, or you can look at abdkaldmewlnfknrg’s goal in game 2. not a real good opertunitie there that still went in due to mafs inability to play second base
" I AM CAPATIN CHAOS, and this is my trusty Sidekick cato. Say hello Cato"
Dom Deluise 1933-2009, Cannonball run
by oldtimehockey09 on Jun 4, 2009 1:01 AM EDT up reply actions
That brings up another aspect, that of Goalie play. You have a superstar in the net and puck possession and SOG or Scoring chances aren’t going to correlate with the end score.
"Government is not reason, it is not eloquence, it is force; like fire, a troublesome servant and a fearful master. Never for a moment should it be left to irresponsible action." - George Washington
by Hockey Beard in SLC on Jun 4, 2009 1:03 AM EDT up reply actions
Goalie play is, unfortunately, ignored in this particular analysis. It’s certainly not perfect.
by R O on Jun 4, 2009 1:06 AM EDT up reply actions
Yes, but when a team can’t maintain meaningful possession (e.g. bottled up in the neutral zone), they can get occasional shot on goal but they’re not going to get to accumulate a large volume of shots (either on goal or attempted). It just doesn’t happen.
by R O on Jun 4, 2009 1:04 AM EDT up reply actions
Right, but as oldtime stated, you can still get some softies thrown at the net from the neutral zone (though they won’t be accumulating as fast as with sustained puck pressure).
I guess my point is that there are other things beside ES puck possession and
SOG that go into determining dominant play.
"Government is not reason, it is not eloquence, it is force; like fire, a troublesome servant and a fearful master. Never for a moment should it be left to irresponsible action." - George Washington
by Hockey Beard in SLC on Jun 4, 2009 1:07 AM EDT up reply actions
In a macro view, absolutely. In fact, when you look at, say, a multiple-season snapshot of a team (that has stayed relatively constant in its roster), then goal differential is actually the best stat.
But, in a single-game analysis, where luck plays a huge role in one game and an equally huge but completely different role in another game, I think ES possession is the “best” (maybe least luck-affected, or most luck-free) metric or quality you can look at.
by R O on Jun 4, 2009 1:11 AM EDT up reply actions
But at the same time (as has been argued before), the special teams aspect of the game can’t be entirely ignored either. Especially with Detroits PK being so atrocious.
If (huge if there) the Penguins continue to capitalize on 1 or 2 PP a night, then should that be considered “luck”? I don’t think so, in fact, the ability to capitalize on the PP is a legit stat that has bearing on future games as well.
"Government is not reason, it is not eloquence, it is force; like fire, a troublesome servant and a fearful master. Never for a moment should it be left to irresponsible action." - George Washington
by Hockey Beard in SLC on Jun 4, 2009 1:14 AM EDT up reply actions
You are right, capitalizing on the PP is absolutely not luck (caveat: there’s always the weird two-leg deflection option, but you get my drift). The luck aspect comes from getting the edge in the number of calls. As I said earlier, the difference between the team with the most and the team with the least 5-on-4 powerplay time is 100 minutes (over 82 games). So if you get say, a 2 PP edge, there is often (not always) some luck to that.
by R O on Jun 4, 2009 1:18 AM EDT up reply actions
see the goal that geno got in the caps series where it bounced off a defensman then off genos knee and into the net
" I AM CAPATIN CHAOS, and this is my trusty Sidekick cato. Say hello Cato"
Dom Deluise 1933-2009, Cannonball run
by oldtimehockey09 on Jun 4, 2009 1:24 AM EDT up reply actions
or as i like to call it, the magic shot
" I AM CAPATIN CHAOS, and this is my trusty Sidekick cato. Say hello Cato"
Dom Deluise 1933-2009, Cannonball run
by oldtimehockey09 on Jun 4, 2009 1:35 AM EDT up reply actions
Although true, I still think you discount PP time to easily. Part of the reason for penalties in the first place is to PENALIZE the team committing the foul. I believe PKs and PPs are just as fundamental as those skills you mention.
Even strength scoring chances are very important, I am not disagreeing, but at the same time, a PP goal counts just the same as an ES goal at the end of the day.
"Government is not reason, it is not eloquence, it is force; like fire, a troublesome servant and a fearful master. Never for a moment should it be left to irresponsible action." - George Washington
by Hockey Beard in SLC on Jun 4, 2009 12:34 AM EDT up reply actions
For “macro” things like predicting expected wins from goal differential, I agree that PP goals need to be taken into account.
But for single-game analysis to try and divine who played better, I usually discount PP time. Maybe it’s an incomplete look but seeing as how even a single PP skews the outlook so much, and how PPs on a per-game basis are not exactly handed out with much consistency, I would rather just look at the ES counts.
some teams are better at drawing penalties through puck possesion then other.
wings and pens are great at it. (drawing penalties)
" I AM CAPATIN CHAOS, and this is my trusty Sidekick cato. Say hello Cato"
Dom Deluise 1933-2009, Cannonball run
by oldtimehockey09 on Jun 4, 2009 12:43 AM EDT up reply actions
This is part of my point. The PP is integral to Pittsburghs play because they have an uptempo puck possession type of offense that wears out the other team, and sometimes forces them to take a penalty.
They shouldn’t be dinged for it in a statistical analysis…though my stat teacher always said you can get statistics to say whatever you want.
"Government is not reason, it is not eloquence, it is force; like fire, a troublesome servant and a fearful master. Never for a moment should it be left to irresponsible action." - George Washington
by Hockey Beard in SLC on Jun 4, 2009 12:47 AM EDT up reply actions
It’s true, but the advantage is not as large as you think. The difference between the top team and the bottom team is about 100 penalty minutes, which is about a minute a game. That’s less than one extra minor PP in any given game. So you can see how individual PP edges per game, when analyzing games one-at-a-time, can really skew the results.
The "ifs" you cite are completely overwhelmed by the 4 or 5 posts the Wings hit.
hmm, this sounds familiar.
" I AM CAPATIN CHAOS, and this is my trusty Sidekick cato. Say hello Cato"
Dom Deluise 1933-2009, Cannonball run
by oldtimehockey09 on Jun 4, 2009 12:12 AM EDT up reply actions
Yes, EXCEPT. As I said above. The Wings outplayed the Pens in game 3 while getting jobbed by the bounces. Whereas even though Pitts got jobbed by the bounces in game 1, they were still schooled at even strength in terms of possession. It’s not really fair to complain about not getting the lucky win in a game that you got outplayed in (i.e. game 1).
it is a game of bounces and luck. particularly when the teams are as evenly matched as now. i think the whole western conferance glasses are fooling you a bit
" I AM CAPATIN CHAOS, and this is my trusty Sidekick cato. Say hello Cato"
Dom Deluise 1933-2009, Cannonball run
by oldtimehockey09 on Jun 4, 2009 12:19 AM EDT up reply actions
When you use the term “outplayed” you are being subjective. The Penguins outshot Detroit in both Games 1 and 2, does that mean that they outplayed the Wings? Probably not, but you can’t discount it.
The lucky bounces are indeed what cost the Penguins Game 1 (Game 2 is another story), but I’m not complaining, because the point of a 7 game series is to even out the lucky bounces so the truly better team wins.
"Government is not reason, it is not eloquence, it is force; like fire, a troublesome servant and a fearful master. Never for a moment should it be left to irresponsible action." - George Washington
by Hockey Beard in SLC on Jun 4, 2009 12:21 AM EDT up reply actions
need a chat room. it is such a pain to chase threads looking for talking points and such
" I AM CAPATIN CHAOS, and this is my trusty Sidekick cato. Say hello Cato"
Dom Deluise 1933-2009, Cannonball run
by oldtimehockey09 on Jun 4, 2009 12:22 AM EDT up reply actions
Most definitely…
So let it be written, so let it be done!
"Government is not reason, it is not eloquence, it is force; like fire, a troublesome servant and a fearful master. Never for a moment should it be left to irresponsible action." - George Washington
by Hockey Beard in SLC on Jun 4, 2009 12:26 AM EDT up reply actions
click on the door for the chat room
" I AM CAPATIN CHAOS, and this is my trusty Sidekick cato. Say hello Cato"
Dom Deluise 1933-2009, Cannonball run
by oldtimehockey09 on Jun 4, 2009 12:27 AM EDT up reply actions
DOH!
" I AM CAPATIN CHAOS, and this is my trusty Sidekick cato. Say hello Cato"
Dom Deluise 1933-2009, Cannonball run
by oldtimehockey09 on Jun 4, 2009 12:27 AM EDT up reply actions
Ok so let me just set the record straight on this: I think the Pens deserved game 2. So I’m only going to talk about game 1.
Game 1, Pens outshot Detroit. But, they also had more PPs. I usually only talk even strength because it’s the only ice-tme context that both teams get the exact same amount of (and most of the game is played at ES, and both ends of the ice come into play). So at ES, and when you look at stats like Corsi (which is basically shots directed at net) then Detroit comes out +9. And that corresponds, really well, with how I saw the game, which was that Detroit was just consistently better at driving the puck towards the Pittsburgh end of the ice.
I mean, it’s possible that my eyes played tricks on me, but that’s why I check the stats sheets, to confirm (or refute) what I saw.
oh we dont deny that game one the pens were out played. but at the same time it really came down to bounces and goofy butt goals
" I AM CAPATIN CHAOS, and this is my trusty Sidekick cato. Say hello Cato"
Dom Deluise 1933-2009, Cannonball run
by oldtimehockey09 on Jun 4, 2009 12:28 AM EDT up reply actions
hitting a post can be considered a bad break for the shooter OR
good positioning by the goalie. Osgood forced at least a few of those shots wide by good positioning, as did MAF in G3. That ‘eephus pitch’ that landed on top of the cage behind MAF in G3 was neither a good chance or a good stop — it was just fluky (but I’ll concede fluky usually favor the team deep in their opponent’s zone)
by chicos_pants on Jun 4, 2009 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions
Usually outside-the-post hits from bad angles result from good goaltending positioning – there’s just no gap for the puck to go in. But when the puck hits the face (or worse, the inside) of the post, there’s almost always room for the puck to go in. And a few cm or even mm can often be the difference between the puck deflecting off the post and in or off the post and out. Given how that kind of puck position difference can come from the orientation of the puck itself – I am inclined to think it’s luck.
or it's just limited space
there is a point where a puck can either go in or out, and that’s largely luck. However, shooting at a limited space increases the chances of outright miss or deflection away. Some of it depends on the quality of scoring opportunity and skill getting it on net with accuracy. Not all good scoring chances result in a goal either, so why should a post shot get such disproportionate attention.
by chicos_pants on Jun 4, 2009 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Agreed. If you hit the post there is probably space but it is limited by the goalie, and that’s a skill thing. But, the orientation of the puck (when it’s rolling – which is often) is a huge determining factor too, and one that the player doesn’t have much control over. He can settle the puck down or get it rolling how he wants or what not but that takes time and usually the time required will take away the scoring chance.
I don’t think posts really deserve disproportinate attention per se, it’s just that they are the best and easiest-to-identify example of a missed scoring chance. So the first layer of conversation when debating results vs. performance will probably contain discussions about posts.
thats a nice stat and all
but its only a stat. its only shots on net. it doesnt account for one team shooting more accurately one day. or one goalie being better.
you can’t look at that single stat and say the wings out played the pens the entire game. cuz if you watched the 3rd period you’d know that wasnt true
just realized i completely missed the stats debate
and i’m completely bummed
I did watch the game, and I think the Wings did dominate the game. Not every minute of ice-time was domination (I never see that anyway) but the vast majority. I’m not going to put a firm number on the number of minutes Detroit was outplaying Pitts it but I’m confident it was at least 45-15.
as much as you made a good point about how corsi numbers can be sometimes be more relevant than i thought, i’m gonna have disagree with you there. just no way you can say you dominated the entire game with 3 shots on goal in the third
But they are the red wings, they are superior in every facet of the game, of course they dominated it.
Facetiousniess aside, the Wings actually have a weakness in net. Although it hasn’t manifested itself often in these playoffs.
by R O on Jun 4, 2009 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh my god, you are seriously the only wing fan i’ve ever met who dosen’t think Osgood is the greatest goalie ever born.
A.) I’m not primarily a Wings fan. I’m cheering for them now for a number of reasons.
B.) Osgood’s a career mediocre goaltender who’s played most of his games behind an awesome team defence. I’d say more but it’s all been said by CG at brodeurisafraud.blogspot.com, with more detailed analysis than I can put together. I’m not fooled by this hot run of his.
by R O on Jun 4, 2009 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Cooke: “That’s my Jar!!! RAWR!”
"Government is not reason, it is not eloquence, it is force; like fire, a troublesome servant and a fearful master. Never for a moment should it be left to irresponsible action." - George Washington
by Hockey Beard in SLC on Jun 3, 2009 9:59 PM EDT reply actions
Should the Wings go on to win the Cup despite their penalty-killing problems, they’ll be defying history. No Cup-winner has killed off less than 80 percent of opposition power plays during the regular season since the 1991-92 Pittsburgh Penguins had a 79.9 percent success rate
This whole bit about the PK is a bit misleading. The PK rate is usually indicative (or at least correlated) with defense, and defense is one half of the goal differential equation. So teams that are bad at defense will typically not have the ability to maintain high goal differentials. At the end of the day, all that matters in any hockey game is goal differential, and behind that, possession differential.
With Detroit it’s fairly obvious that their defense is outstanding, especially at even strength. I don’t know why their PK is so bad (although I suspect it’s Osgood) and obviously that has a real cost in terms of GD (and ultimately wins). But, the Wings are so outstanding at even strength and the PP, that I think it’s more than enough to overcome the poor PK.
Especially when they stay out of the box. I think they are the least penalized team in the NHL…
"Government is not reason, it is not eloquence, it is force; like fire, a troublesome servant and a fearful master. Never for a moment should it be left to irresponsible action." - George Washington
by Hockey Beard in SLC on Jun 3, 2009 11:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Good to know. Thanks.
Where does Detroit rank then? or where can I find it?
"Government is not reason, it is not eloquence, it is force; like fire, a troublesome servant and a fearful master. Never for a moment should it be left to irresponsible action." - George Washington
by Hockey Beard in SLC on Jun 4, 2009 12:07 AM EDT reply actions
Argh…hate it when i don’t reply to the comment that I want.
"Government is not reason, it is not eloquence, it is force; like fire, a troublesome servant and a fearful master. Never for a moment should it be left to irresponsible action." - George Washington
by Hockey Beard in SLC on Jun 4, 2009 12:08 AM EDT up reply actions
All this info is on NHL.com. It’s under the Stats menu, then teams, then pick Penalties.
Although I am looking at it now and while Carolina does have the least PIMs, that includes fights as well. So it’s not really representative. I’m looking at Behind the Net and it shows Phoenix as having the least 4-on-5 time. Carolina is third in that metric, and Detroit is 9th. That doesn’t include 2-man advantages and 4-on-3’s, but I’m too lazy to look at that right now.
No worries, just needed a ballpark. Thanks.
"Government is not reason, it is not eloquence, it is force; like fire, a troublesome servant and a fearful master. Never for a moment should it be left to irresponsible action." - George Washington
by Hockey Beard in SLC on Jun 4, 2009 12:27 AM EDT up reply actions
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