Sidney Crosby vs. Alex Ovechkin: Round 6,831,232
Ever since the lockout, hockey's been largely about two players. Sidney Crosby: the clean-cut, soft-spoken Canadian boy with the vision, playmaking and drive to win. Then the yang to his yin in Alex Ovechkin: the brash, shaggy, emotional Russian with an other-worldly shot, non-stop motor and a tremendous drive of his own.
Through four seasons now they've won three scoring titles (with Evgeni Malkin, the Russian Penguin alway in the background getting the fourth). Crosby's scored 1.37 points per game (regular season), just a hair ahead of Ovechkin's 1.30 points/game. Crosby has one MVP but Ovechkin has the last two. Crosby has helped the Pens to 31 playoff wins, Ovechkin's Capitals have just 10 -- certainly through no fault of AO's 1.42 points/playoff game average. Crosby, for his part, has a 1.29 playoff points/game average, with more games coming in tighter checked late round matches.
So the eternal question: who's better? The goal scoring dyanmo with a sensational individual resume? Or the player 23 months his junior who's won about everything there is to win.
Puck Prospectus breaks it down thusly with the standard each player needs (based statistically) to claim the throne:
If Sidney Crosby is truly the best player in the world, we'll see him score 115 points this season, lead Pittsburgh to the Stanley Cup finals, and Team Canada to the Gold Medal game in Vancouver. This time next year, I think it's fair to say that the debate will be over one way or the other.
Ovechkin's upside potential for next season is 125-129 points.....Scoring 129 points in 2009-2010 would likely make the Moscow-native the winner of the Hart Memorial and Art Ross trophies and could propel Washington to a very high Eastern Conference playoff seed. If Ovechkin can lead Team Russia to a 2010 Vancouver Winter Games Gold medal, lead the Washington Capitals to a Stanley Cup victory and continue putting up the astonishing statistics he has put up in previous seasons, then I believe the debate will be put to rest. He will not only be considered better than Sidney Crosby, but he will be considered the best player in the game.
As you can see, both authors put a high price on the Olympic gold, which may be unfair to boil it down to just two players when both Canada and Russia will ice mega-allstar lineups with potential heroes literally all over the place.
What do you think of their analysis? Personally, I don't see why Crosby needs to score 115 points (which he's done) and go to the Stanley Cup finals (which he's done...twice) to be considered the best player all of a sudden. Does he really have to do it all again to conclusively prove he's the best?
By the same token, Ovechkin supporters will rightly point to all his individual hardware and skills as evidence to his stand-alone greatness. Does he have to win the gold medal to prove that?
No matter how you slice it the debate will continue and rage on for most, if not all of their respective great careers. The bottom line is both are uniquely gifted and incredible hockey players - their styles on and off the ice may be polar opposites, but that doesn't mean one is clearly superior to the other. On any given night either can make a compelling case that he is the best player in the world. But so can Malkin, the man not even mentioned in this article that led the regular season and the playoffs in scoring.
All are fantastic talents, all of them are special, and it's something to enjoy and debate about, even if there's nothing conclusive as to who's the best.
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Eh, I don’t think you can compare these players side-by-side. AO is a puck hog that takes cheap runs at anyone he can hit on the ice, and has no concept of playing defense. He takes umpteen million shots from every angle possible, and had a shooting percentage last year of .106 on 528 shots. Crosby, on the other hand, plays a much more mature game, and makes everyone around him on his team better. He might not have the entertainment value that AO does, but Crosby will easily win more Cups than AO throughout their careers.
My prediction is that AO’s playing style catches up with him sooner than later. He might be able to get away with being able to run through brick walls now because he is 24, but that certainly won’t last. He’ll be done by the time he’s 32 (or sooner). Also, it’ll be interesting to see what happens to Ovie once another superstar emerges in Washington, be it through trade, or internal development. What if it wasn’t all about AO 24/7?
AO will never be better than he is right now. It’s all downhill from here. Crosby? Every year he pushes himself to perfect another aspect of his game. He’s the guy you build an NHL franchise around. Ovechkin? You’d build WWE franchise around…
"Oh, buy Sam a drink and get his dog one too!" - Mike Lange
Good point, gorgalor….Every year Crosby has improved his faceoff percentage. Every year I think he’s dedicated himself to refining his game as a more complete player with and without the puck.
I don’t think Ovechkin’s taken as many steps to improve away from the puck. Totally subjective on my part to say that, but that’s how I see it.
Neither will probably play much PK time as their coach’s don’t want them hurt (see Datsyuk, Pavel breaking his foot blocking a shot) but I think Crosby’s game is more refined and will continue to improve over the years. Crosby also plays a position more conducive to playing defense and the whole length of the rink, which gives him more room for improvement. Wingers don’t have to have that much defensive reponsibility.
Pensburgh.com -- it's like the Max Talbot of blogs*
*not just because we only work for 12 minutes a night
AO is a puck hog that takes cheap runs at anyone he can hit on the ice, and has no concept of playing defense.
You’re a hack. Seriously, get a real argument.
He takes umpteen million shots from every angle possible, and had a shooting percentage last year of .106 on 528 shots.
Is the point to have the highest shooting percentage or the most goals? Cuz I don’t remember anyone scoring more goals than him.
He might not have the entertainment value that AO does, but Crosby will easily win more Cups than AO throughout their careers.
It’s a team game, what’s your point?
Also, it’ll be interesting to see what happens to Ovie once another superstar emerges in Washington, be it through trade, or internal development. What if it wasn’t all about AO 24/7?
This is a great point. Doesn’t everyone remember how he pouted all year long while Mike Green got Norris hype? Or how he Nick Backstrom has consistently been getting more leaguewide attention? Or when Varlamov was singlehandedly (in some circles) given credit for winning the first round of the playoffs? He’s a great teammate that doesn’t hesitate to give credit to other players, whether they be 4th line guys or stars. This is a non-issue that you are creating with your own bias.
AO will never be better than he is right now. It’s all downhill from here.
On what grounds to you base this? Stud players get better through their 20s. His prime will be somewhere between 27-32, just like any other player. Barring injury he’s going to continue to get better, and let’s face it, the injury thing could bite any player at any time. It’s easier to see Crosby’s increase in face off percentage because it’s easy to quantify. It’s harder to see a wing’s defensive addition so people just aren’t going to give AO credit for it. If you watched him every game you’d see he has continued to work and improve in that area.
Ovechkin? You’d build WWE franchise around…
…I coulda sworn that there was an NHL franchise built around him.
A man must have a code.
by Rob Parker on Sep 1, 2009 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I dont really disagree with you except for one point.
Shooting percentage does matter. If AO shoots a poor percentage because his usage is too high, he is hurting his team. That is, he would be best served “using” less shots and allowing others to shoot more. The basic assumption is that shots are negatived correlated with shooting percentages and that the capitals could find a more efficient allocation of shots if AO cuts down on his personal shots.
That is such a difficult proposition to test that I don’t know if it can even be done. The bottom line is he is 2x defending MVP, and Pearson, and Richard, and the Caps are much better with him than without him. I can understand the hypothetical argument that if he shot less there could be more Caps goals but unless there is some evidence to actually support that I have a hard time agreeing with that conclusion in the face of his demonstrated production. AO takes a lot of shots that most players have no business taking, but he gets away with it because his shot is so much better. I’m not sure how the numbers would change if he shot less. To me it’s kind of like a Home Run/Strike Out guy in MLB. Maybe you tell them to take something off the swing and the batting average goes up, but are you really convinced that will offset the decreased Home Runs? It’s a question that is specific to every individual player and I don’t know how you could determine the answer, ex ante. I think you just have to go by a player’s production, and on that count AO does just fine, notwithstanding a low shooting percentage.
A man must have a code.
I don’t know if it does or not. Who’s to say he isn’t shooting into high traffic situations where a deflection is more likely than a goal of his own? A lot of players are told to put the puck on net but guys like Ovechkin are asked more often. If the Caps are working a game plan around a shot into traffic or if they are going to rush the net for a chop at a rebound, I don’t think shot percentage is as big a factor.
However, if he’s taking a shot from the left hash mark when a guy is clearly wide open in the slot, I guess that’s where shot percentage, not to mention goal percentage, will play a factor.
Follow the Penguins on SBN @ Pensburgh.com and twitter.
This is what I was getting at with my comment about testing the hypothesis. Would you want to be the guy to code every shot in the league as a good or bad shot? How would you predict the alternative result? AO plays point on the PP where he’s told to bomb away, and as you know he takes a huge number of shots on the rush (where over-passing is highly frowned upon at the NHL level). I can buy that he shoots sometimes when he shouldn’t, but I also remember game 7 against the Flyers when he passed to Fedorov late in the 3rd and very easily could have just ripped that shot himself.
A man must have a code.
scoreboard says sid one cup 1 ovie 0. that trophy is the only one that matters
" Lord Stanley, etch thier names on your fabled cup" Mike Lange june 12, 2009
by oldtimehockey09 on Sep 1, 2009 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah that’s the only one that matters, but it’s not an individual award.
Scoreboard says Trent Dilfer 1 SB ring, Dan Marino 0. Who you got?
A man must have a code.
by Rob Parker on Sep 1, 2009 6:03 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
doesnt matter, what does matter is the fact that no matter how much talent you surrond AO with, he will still be ao. what makes him so dangerous also makes him a libability. his ability to shoot from rediculous angles at the drop of the hat also means that 9 times outta 10 his team mates arent in the area to get a rebound. throwing it at the net is good, when theres traffic. because sid and geno both have the vision to see defenses shift to them when they get the puck, because they are both fantastic passers i would argue that untill ao consistently puts up more assits then goals he is not on thier level. talented players make those around them better. gret players make those around them exponentially better because there is no stopping them. if you concede the shot they burn the goalie, if your concede the pass thay make a prettly little pass to a wwide open guy. side and geno cant be stopped because of thier passing skills. and i will gladly take 1 cup vs 2 hart trophies and a broken heart in the conferance semi’s
im willing to bet there are plenty of players out there that would trade thier individual awards for one cup.
" Lord Stanley, etch thier names on your fabled cup" Mike Lange june 12, 2009
by oldtimehockey09 on Sep 1, 2009 6:21 PM EDT up reply actions
whole lotta spell fails there
" Lord Stanley, etch thier names on your fabled cup" Mike Lange june 12, 2009
by oldtimehockey09 on Sep 1, 2009 6:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Everyone would trade individual awards for one Cup but that has no bearing on the argument whatsoever. I’d trade all of AO’s trophies for Max Talbot’s but I wouldn’t trade AO for Talbot.
This is just a completely unfounded opinion, and I don’t know that it can be remedied. There are 1.7 assists per goal in the NHL. Thus, it is harder to score than to get an assist. I could argue that until Crosby and Malkin can put up more goals than assists then they aren’t on AO’s level, but I’ll just settle for “they play different styles and are all effective at what they do.” Scoring goals is the hardest thing to do in the game, the name of the game is scoring more goals than the other team, and nobody scores goals better than AO.
How can you say AO doesn’t make his teams better? Except for Viktor Kozlov every player that has ever played consistently with AO put up career numbers playing. When he is on the ice 3 guys are paying attention to him, and that creates a ton of room for other players. Of course, you don’t watch the Caps so you don’t know this, but it’s true. You don’t just make other players better by passing them the puck. He has 7 international medals (and counting); I’m sure he helped those teams. The Caps weren’t even sniffing the playoffs until he showed up, now they are the powerhouse in their division. Your argument is based on a straw man of what kind of player AO is, and there’s not much I can say to that. You sound like you think the Caps would be better off without him, and that is just ludicrous.
A man must have a code.
no im not saying that at all. im saying that if he had a little more restraint he would be better then he is and there would be no arguement. your right you dont make other players better by passing them the puck. you make them better by dishing it off at the right time. ao has made an immeasureable impact to the caps franchise for sure. but the name of the game is not scoring goals, the name of the game is winning and no one has done that better then sid…or geno in thier young careers
" Lord Stanley, etch thier names on your fabled cup" Mike Lange june 12, 2009
by oldtimehockey09 on Sep 1, 2009 7:01 PM EDT up reply actions
ok explain then mr.wizard. your boy knee high seems to think that 54 assists is a grand number. team sport = team player. if the name of the game was scoring goals, then why is it that some of the best offenses in history didnt win a cup? did bonds ever get a WS ring? nope. marino never got a sb ring.
i would gladly take big ben over peyton manning. just win. just like i would gladly take sid or geno over AO. or fluery over luongo.
understanding of team sport fail indeed.
" Lord Stanley, etch thier names on your fabled cup" Mike Lange june 12, 2009
by oldtimehockey09 on Sep 1, 2009 7:33 PM EDT up reply actions
You would take those guys because their teams win. They didn’t win anything singlehandedly. Would you have taken Fleury over Luongo on May 1, 2009? Nothing regarding their quality as players has changed. It takes 18+ guys to win a Cup. Yes, the best players have to play well, but nobody does it alone. Ben won SBs with a dominant D, he didn’t do it alone. Talbot scored 2 goals in game 7, Sid and Geno combined for 0. It’s a team sport. Teams win championships. Saying X is better than Y is an absurd argument, and it implies absurd conclusions. Would you take Osgood over MAF? Do you think Osgood is Brodeur’s equal? Would you take Talbot over AO? Would you take Fedostanko over Lecavalier? Would you take Kevyn Adams over Joe Thornton? See where I’m going with this? If the Caps win the next two Cups, does that make AO better than Sid or Geno? No. What matters when comparing individuals is what the individual does. You can’t say AO is worse because his team is worse. If you don’t get that then I don’t know what else to tell you.
A man must have a code.
Sorry, “Saying X is better than Y because X has won a championship” is how it should read.
A man must have a code.
oh i agree. i just said that i would rather take either of our big guys over ao because they know how to win. tsid and geno do things that ao doesnt, that makes both more complete players.
ex, ao blocked a whopping 32 shots during the reg season. sid had 42, malkin had 39. in the playoffs sid had 18, malkin had 12 (and i remember everyone saying GENO WTF U DOIN?!?!?!) while ao had 5…thats right 5. yes obvioulsy there is a game disparity there but lets do the math.
ao blocked shots per game in playoffs, .35/game, reg season average .40…wha? a drop?
sid .75, reg season average is around .55
geno .5, reg season average .47
ao givaways 107 in reg season to 60 takeaways
geno 81 gives to 94 take’s
sid 80 gives to 56 takes
thats why i’ll take either of our two vs ao. because the play both sides of the ice, play better with and with out the puck, and they dont look like jaws from the bond movies
:)
" Lord Stanley, etch thier names on your fabled cup" Mike Lange june 12, 2009
by oldtimehockey09 on Sep 1, 2009 9:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Well that’s not what you originally said, but whatever. Crosby on the Isles or Thrashers or Lightning doesn’t win a Cup because he doesn’t have the supporting cast. In PIT he does. He didn’t do it all alone (or just him and Geno).
To be honest I’m not judging any offensive studs by blocked shots or takeaways. Those are basically worthless stats for me because they vary so much between arenas. They aren’t tracked or defined by the NHL so there is no real meaning for any of them and the numbers aren’t reliable. Even so, Wings are naturally going to block fewer shots than Centers because of where they play in their own zone, so it’s not apples to apples. You’ve bought into the “AO doesn’t play D” thing, and I guess that’s fine. You don’t watch enough of AO to really have an informed opinion of it. If you watch enough hockey, then you do know that good defense is incredibly hard to quantify statistically (that’s why Norris voting get’s so convoluted and S@H D are generally undervalued) so trying to make this case with numbers isn’t going to be very persuasive.
A man must have a code.
i would argue that untill ao consistently puts up more assits then goals he is not on thier level.
Err, Ovechkin still scored more points per game than either of them.
alented players make those around them better. gret players make those around them exponentially better because there is no stopping them. if you concede the shot they burn the goalie, if your concede the pass thay make a prettly little pass to a wwide open guy
Take a look at the stats of Dainus Zubrus and Chris Clark when they played on Ovechkin’s line and when they didn’t. Everyone who plays the Caps has a gameplan: Stop Ovechkin. It’s easier said than done, he either straight-up beats the defense or finds teammates that beat the defense cheating to stop him. Crosby and Malkin are a lot of great things, but comparable snipers to Ovechkin they are not.
i will gladly take 1 cup vs 2 hart trophies and a broken heart in the conferance semi’s
Of course you will, Ovechkin would too and has said as much on multiple occasions. He even said it in his Hart acceptance speech this year. Hockey is a team game, Crosby and Malkin won a cup with their team and Ovechkin didn’t. You can’t honestly go back to the playoffs and tell me that the Capitals lost because 8 wasn’t playing well enough. I mean, you could, but I’d laugh in your face.
by Knee high to a duck on Sep 1, 2009 6:41 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
You can’t honestly go back to the playoffs and tell me that the Capitals lost because 8 wasn’t playing well enough. I mean, you could, but I’d laugh in your face.
ao did play well enough, just his line mates did not. why? i cant remember a game other then game 6 where someone other then ao on that line made a play.
Crosby and Malkin are a lot of great things, but comparable snipers to Ovechkin they are not.
first off, by deffinition a sniper scores on a large percentage of shots. so your arguement holds absolutly no water. but i will humour you.
ao shots 528, goals 56, so on every 100 shots he scores 5 times for a 10%
sid shots 238, sid goals 33, so on every 100 shots he scores 14 times
geno shots 290, geno goals 35, every 100 shots results in 12 goals.
so if we hold to the deffinition of a sniper, sid and geno are well ahead of your beloved ao. but if we want to warp the deffinition of a sniper, ok you win.
" Lord Stanley, etch thier names on your fabled cup" Mike Lange june 12, 2009
by oldtimehockey09 on Sep 1, 2009 6:56 PM EDT up reply actions
The definition of sniper in hockey is a player who scores goals with a lethal shot. Ovechkin is the premiere goal scorer in hockey and he does it primarily with a wicked shot from every angle. He takes shots that others wouldn’t even consider and still makes them.
Using shooting percentage is disingenuous and would be relevant if they all took the same shots from the same place. It would also help if they had the same role. They most definitely do not, in either case. Both 87 and 71 are primarily setup-men who can score, 8 is a scorer who can do setups.
ao shots 528, goals 56, so on every 100 shots he scores 5 times for a 10%
sid shots 238, sid goals 33, so on every 100 shots he scores 14 times
geno shots 290, geno goals 35, every 100 shots results in 12 goals.
I can play with numbers too! Ovechkin generated as many shots as Sid and Malkin combined, exactly if your numbers are correct. I’ll quote The Great One, “You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take.”
ao did play well enough, just his line mates did not. why? i cant remember a game other then game 6 where someone other then ao on that line made a play.
Yeah, that Backstrom guy was invisible. Wait, what?
by Knee high to a duck on Sep 1, 2009 9:09 PM EDT up reply actions
You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take
which is different from missing 90% of the ones you do take how exactly?
" Lord Stanley, etch thier names on your fabled cup" Mike Lange june 12, 2009
by oldtimehockey09 on Sep 1, 2009 9:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Err, really? The difference in this case is 56 goals last season.
by Knee high to a duck on Sep 1, 2009 9:34 PM EDT up reply actions
ill take a 35 goal scorer who knows how to put them in big games vs a 56 goal scorer who can’t produce when his seasons on the line any day of the week. hell ill take a 25 goals scorer who can produce in crunch time vs a 56 goal scorer who cant.
" Lord Stanley, etch thier names on your fabled cup" Mike Lange june 12, 2009
by oldtimehockey09 on Sep 1, 2009 9:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Didn’t we just establish that Ovechkin produced hugely in the playoffs? I’m pretty sure we did, in fact.
If that’s not crunch time, I don’t know what is.
by Knee high to a duck on Sep 1, 2009 9:54 PM EDT up reply actions
whatd he do in game 7?
" Lord Stanley, etch thier names on your fabled cup" Mike Lange june 12, 2009
by oldtimehockey09 on Sep 1, 2009 9:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Scored a goal. We’re back to the team versus individual argument again.
In the vein that Fehr and Balanced used, would you trade Adams for Ovechkin? They had the same production in that game. No, of course you wouldn’t. You’d have to be an idiot to do that.
by Knee high to a duck on Sep 1, 2009 10:01 PM EDT up reply actions
were only back there because you want to go there. bigest game of his nhl career and i would expect someone of his capabilities to not only light up the scoreboard but light up his teammates.
" Lord Stanley, etch thier names on your fabled cup" Mike Lange june 12, 2009
by oldtimehockey09 on Sep 1, 2009 10:05 PM EDT up reply actions
No, we’re there because you asserted that Ovechkin can’t produce in crunch time, which is blantantly ridiculous. I rebutted it casually, since that’s all it merited.
by Knee high to a duck on Sep 1, 2009 10:12 PM EDT up reply actions
game 7, at home, against a team that went to the finals the year before. and it gets more crunch how exactly?
ps keep throwing your sinde jabs out there, its hysterical
" Lord Stanley, etch thier names on your fabled cup" Mike Lange june 12, 2009
by oldtimehockey09 on Sep 1, 2009 10:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Stanley Cup finals against the team that demolished yours the year before, get 1 goal and 3 assists, all of which came in 2 games at home. That’s how it gets more crunch.
Ovechkin played well enough that game, but the Capitals didn’t. Just like the Penguins, as a team, played well enough to win the Cup even though Crosby was shut down by Zetterberg and Lidstrom.
by Knee high to a duck on Sep 1, 2009 10:27 PM EDT up reply actions
correct, crosby didnt step up his game. staal, tenk, talbot and geno did. and what do third period goals matter if your team is still loosing at the end of the day. bottom line is stats are decieving. the same weight is given to a gw goal as is any other goal. its still a goal. but great players figure out a way to come through in the crunch. sid did in game 7 vs was. geno did in the finals and talbot did in game 7.
and having the puck skirt the line in the dying seconds of game 6 is not a demolishment of a team. game 7 vs you guys was a demolishment
" Lord Stanley, etch thier names on your fabled cup" Mike Lange june 12, 2009
by oldtimehockey09 on Sep 1, 2009 10:35 PM EDT up reply actions
and having the puck skirt the line in the dying seconds of game 6 is not a demolishment of a team.
Let’s be real. Games 1 and 2 were a flat-out annihilation and MAF stole game 5 in 3 overtimes. Game 6 was tightly contested, but still a win for the Wings. 6 games was not at all reflective of how bad that series actually was.
correct, crosby didnt step up his game. staal, tenk, talbot and geno did. and what do third period goals matter if your team is still loosing at the end of the day. bottom line is stats are decieving. the same weight is given to a gw goal as is any other goal. its still a goal. but great players figure out a way to come through in the crunch. sid did in game 7 vs was. geno did in the finals and talbot did in game 7.
You’re arguing my team point for me here. The team stepped up in a team game, in spite of the non-productivity of a single star, the converse of the Capital’s situation.
by Knee high to a duck on Sep 1, 2009 10:43 PM EDT up reply actions
no, im argueing that ao is not gods gift to hockey which is in stark contrast to everything that comes out of capnation. if ao was all worldly how is it that he couldnt step it up a notch like geno, or any number of penguins?
" Lord Stanley, etch thier names on your fabled cup" Mike Lange june 12, 2009
by oldtimehockey09 on Sep 1, 2009 10:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Name me a better left wing than Alex Ovechkin. There isn’t one. That is, by definition, all-world.
Attribute to me my own opinions please, not those of Capnation, whatever that is.
How is 21 points in 14 playoff games not stepping it up? It wasn’t Ovechkin that didn’t step up in game 7, it was the entire roster.
Similarly, the checking unit stepped up for you guys in the finals this year, members of the team, rather than an unbelievable performance from one of your two admittedly stellar players.
by Knee high to a duck on Sep 1, 2009 10:52 PM EDT up reply actions
P.S. I called it ridiculous because it was. 1.5 points per game in the playoffs, lead the league by far in 3rd period goals.
by Knee high to a duck on Sep 1, 2009 10:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Nick Backstrom scored the game tying goal in game 3 in crunch time. Pretty big play I’d say. Kozlov sucks so even with his 2 goal game I’ll never stick up for him.
A man must have a code.
Haha. I think you’ve seen me around enough to know that I try to be. But seriously, Kozlov is one of the biggest wastes of natural skill I’ve seen in the NHL during my life.
A man must have a code.
Oh I’m not doubting your honesty. Just happy to see it never falters. hah
Kozlov a bum. That seems to be the common method of thought for Caps fans, huh?
Follow the Penguins on SBN @ Pensburgh.com and twitter.
Maybe now that he’s gone people are on the bumwagon. But during the season there was a ton of support for him. Some people though somehow he was the key to the AO/Backstrom line (I’m not sure why). The common analogies were that “Kozlov is the round peg in the round hole on the first line” or “Kozlov is the rug that ties the room together” (Big Lebowski reference started that one). I don’t think Kozlov did anything special on that line. I think just about anyone with balls that would win pucks in the corner and charge the front of the net (not to mention playing every night like he cared) would have probably done better than Kozlov. Knuble doesn’t have Kozlov’s skill but IMO he’s a HUGE upgrade on the first line RW.
A man must have a code.
by Rob Parker on Sep 2, 2009 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
The Big Lebowski reference is rec worthy on its own.
So is Washington looking for the replacement peg for that line now that he’s gone? Who do they have in mind? I’m genuinely curious.
Follow the Penguins on SBN @ Pensburgh.com and twitter.
Everyone who plays the Caps has a gameplan: Stop Ovechkin. It’s easier said than done, he either straight-up beats the defense or finds teammates that beat the defense cheating to stop him.
then why oh great sear of sears did he only have 54 assists the entire reg season? if hes finding teammates to beat the d he should have double that.
" Lord Stanley, etch thier names on your fabled cup" Mike Lange june 12, 2009
by oldtimehockey09 on Sep 1, 2009 7:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Only 54 assists? You understand that ties him for 10th in the league with Jarome Iginla, which gives them the highest assist totals for a non-center in the league, right? Where does this supposition that he should have 108 assists (seriously?!) if he’s finding teammates to beat the defense come from?
by Knee high to a duck on Sep 1, 2009 8:53 PM EDT up reply actions
you cant have your cake and eat it too. if he makes everyone around him sooo much better, why is his goals to assist margin so out of whack with the rest of the league?
" Lord Stanley, etch thier names on your fabled cup" Mike Lange june 12, 2009
by oldtimehockey09 on Sep 1, 2009 9:23 PM EDT up reply actions
For an elite left-wing who’s primary responsibility is scoring goals, that’s a pretty normal G/A ratio.
His lines and linemates perform better, in many cases dramatically so, I don’t see how this is having my cake and eating it too.
by Knee high to a duck on Sep 1, 2009 9:40 PM EDT up reply actions
But to answer your question, the reason is that he scores so many more goals than everyone else. He beat Jeff Carter for 1st place by 10 goals last season. He had 21 more than Malkin and 23 more than Crosby, both of whom had more assists.
54 assists doesn’t happen by accident. The defense keys and shifts towards Ovechkin and he moves it accordingly, especially on the powerplay.
by Knee high to a duck on Sep 1, 2009 9:46 PM EDT up reply actions
but thats my point. the leagues d has been doing it for years and he cant seem to get above 57 assists. its not because his wingers cant score thats for sure. so again how is he making his linemates better? its not by opening up the ice so they can score. if that was the case both semin and back would be 40 goal scorers.
" Lord Stanley, etch thier names on your fabled cup" Mike Lange june 12, 2009
by oldtimehockey09 on Sep 1, 2009 9:53 PM EDT up reply actions
1) He only has one winger, because he’s a left wing.
2) Backstrom is a pass-first center who finished with 66 assists and 22 goals. He’s not a finisher, but that will come in time.
3) He and Semin normally play on different lines.
4) If Semin had played a full season scoring at the same rate, he’d have had 45 goals and 60 assists. He only played 62 games, due to injury.
by Knee high to a duck on Sep 1, 2009 9:58 PM EDT up reply actions
4) If Semin had played a full season scoring at the same rate, he’d have had 45 goals and 60 assists. He only played 62 games, due to injury.
the exact same arguement could be made for sids wingers guerin and kuntiz. spend a full season with him and your playing like a mad man. and just because he plays on a wing doesnt mean his other two forwards arent in the picture.
" Lord Stanley, etch thier names on your fabled cup" Mike Lange june 12, 2009
by oldtimehockey09 on Sep 1, 2009 10:07 PM EDT up reply actions
the exact same arguement could be made for sids wingers guerin and kuntiz
No, the exact same argument would be both of them missing 20 games of the season with injuries and extrapolating their production from there. Guerin continued to produce, but Kunitz dropped off the face of the earth when the playoffs rolled around, production-wise. Backstrom kept scoring a point per game.
just because he plays on a wing doesnt mean his other two forwards arent in the picture.
While true, you specifically pluralized winger. A center has wingers, a wing has an opposite wing. He’s playing with someone who’s job it is to set him up. He makes Backstrom better at that by being the best goal scorer in the league and he opens opportunites at ES and the power-play for his other linemates.
by Knee high to a duck on Sep 1, 2009 10:21 PM EDT up reply actions
No, the exact same argument would be both of them missing 20 games of the season with injuries and extrapolating their production from there. Guerin continued to produce, but Kunitz dropped off the face of the earth when the playoffs rolled around, production-wise. Backstrom kept scoring a point per game.
really so those guys being picked up at the trade deadline and only playing about 20 games on the same line would not have an impact on thier final numbers? huh? it was kunitz job to hit. but still, having a 14 point playoff run isnt too shabby. yes only one of those 14 was a goal but it was kunitz who set up the 2-1 for talbots gw goal in game 7.
" Lord Stanley, etch thier names on your fabled cup" Mike Lange june 12, 2009
by oldtimehockey09 on Sep 1, 2009 10:39 PM EDT up reply actions
maybe ao could use some passing lessons from kunitz
:P
" Lord Stanley, etch thier names on your fabled cup" Mike Lange june 12, 2009
by oldtimehockey09 on Sep 1, 2009 10:40 PM EDT up reply actions
AO still had more A/gm than Kunitz did in the playoffs.
:P
by Knee high to a duck on Sep 1, 2009 10:46 PM EDT up reply actions
how many were passes vs rebounds from one of his many stopped shots
" Lord Stanley, etch thier names on your fabled cup" Mike Lange june 12, 2009
by oldtimehockey09 on Sep 1, 2009 10:51 PM EDT up reply actions
I really have no way of knowing that and you have no way of knowing how many of Kunitz’s assists were rebounds, or feeds to Crosby that he made a brilliant pass with, without some kind of exhaustive video study.
Regardless, is a goal only a goal if it comes from a pretty pass? I thought goals off rebounds still counted – if so, AO is making his teammates better.
by Knee high to a duck on Sep 1, 2009 10:55 PM EDT up reply actions
now we are at the root of the discussion
because of their passing abilities, imo sid and geno will always be at the top of the list as far as best in the leauge. ao sprnkled in one year second, one year third, maybe he can dethrone geno or sid this olympics because the support arguement will be out the window.
" Lord Stanley, etch thier names on your fabled cup" Mike Lange june 12, 2009
by oldtimehockey09 on Sep 1, 2009 11:07 PM EDT up reply actions
I disagree, there’s a reason that Vanek got paid like he did in the offseason last year and that the Sabres dropped off a cliff when he was out. Miller being hurt definitely didn’t help, but they had no one who could consistently get the puck in the net.
Scoring goals is harder than making assists, typically. It’s generally considered more valuable and before you jump in with the Mario and Wayne argument, let me point out that they were both excellent goal-scorers as well as premiere setup men. Those two are a true example of what you were talking about earlier, a guy that will pick your goalie to pieces if left alone, but still able to find that open teammate when help comes. Better than just about anyone else, actually.
AO was voted the best player in the league two years in a row by his fellow players in overwhelming numbers. The media agreed – that should tell you something.
by Knee high to a duck on Sep 1, 2009 11:16 PM EDT up reply actions
As soon as they got there, they exploded and so did Sid. To Sid’s credit, he continued with that through the playoffs up until the finals, as did Guerin, which is a different situation from missing games due to injury.
If you’re trying to say that extrapolation is the same argument, it kind of is, but we have 3 times as large a sample size for Semin in the regular season as we have for Guerin and Kunitz.
by Knee high to a duck on Sep 1, 2009 10:48 PM EDT up reply actions
its very different when your playing for the AAA islanders and a ducks team with no bonafide setup man.
" Lord Stanley, etch thier names on your fabled cup" Mike Lange june 12, 2009
by oldtimehockey09 on Sep 1, 2009 10:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Getzlaf is a pretty bonafide setup man. I would rank him behind only the two centers from Pittsburgh and Jumbo Joe on pure setup ability, maybe Datsyuk but it’s close.
by Knee high to a duck on Sep 1, 2009 10:53 PM EDT up reply actions
no way. getzlaf is maybe a top 10 center, not a top 5 and certinly not a top 3. hell i would take little vomit in my throat backstrom over getzlaf
" Lord Stanley, etch thier names on your fabled cup" Mike Lange june 12, 2009
by oldtimehockey09 on Sep 1, 2009 10:57 PM EDT up reply actions
In terms of overall ability, he’s not top 3. Sid, Geno and Pavs have that more or less on lockdown. I was talking about pure setup ability and even so, I had him as 4th and possibly 5th.
I have Getzlaf as slightly ahead of Backstrom in overall ability at this point and he’s definitely top 10. You could make a case for Lecavalier ahead of him, or Thornton, but that’s really about it. Thornton has trouble in the playoffs, too. Getzlaf most emphatically does not.
by Knee high to a duck on Sep 1, 2009 11:01 PM EDT up reply actions
while a fruitfull and entertaining discussion with the enemy, i must return to work…
" Lord Stanley, etch thier names on your fabled cup" Mike Lange june 12, 2009
by oldtimehockey09 on Sep 1, 2009 11:08 PM EDT up reply actions
but thats my point. the leagues d has been doing it for years and he cant seem to get above 57 assists.
How about why can’t the league keep him from scoring 50+ when they are keying on him? He’s still beating them at his game (scoring goals) while finding a way to incorporate his linemates to the tune of 50+ more assists (tied for most by a non-C in the league bears repeating).
A man must have a code.
This whole argument about his shot totals hurting the team don’t make any sense whatsoever.
Ovechkin scores a lot on the rush, because he is able to get shots off through and around defensemen that lesser forwards can’t manage. Many of those shots on goal lead to a goal or offensive zone draws which lead to even more chances.
Because now I can justify browsing and commenting during the work day with the argument that I am promoting my business.
Shot percentage can be indicative of a player’s shot selectiveness, or quality of a player’s shot. For instance, a guy that has a lousy shot will have a low shooting percentage regardless of where on the ice he chooses to shoot from. A guy that has a great shot, but chooses to shoot from low percentage angles will similarly have a low shot percentage. AO definitely falls in the later category. How does that affect a team?
If AO is taking low percentage shot with a conversion rate of less than 5%, and has a teammate in shooting position ready to take a shot at a 15% conversion rate that he could pass to, handing off the puck to a teammate will result in more goals for the Caps overall. That’s the simplistic way to prove that shooting percentage is an argument that does make sense.
As to your other points about AO getting shots off that others can’t manage, or the result of AO’s shots leading to more offensive zone faceoffs, and rebounds that result in goals, those points are also easily countered:
- AO might be able to get shots off that “lesser forwards” can’t manage, but defenses know that it really is all about Alex, and he’s the only player on the ice they need to shut down. It’s almost like the insane defensive shifts in baseball used against Barry Bonds (and other power hitters) when a third baseman rotates over to second base, the shortstop heads out to mid-right center, etc. There could be a whole field open to hit to, but Barry wasn’t going to dink a ball to the opposite field. AO is one dimensional, and the 29 other teams in the league know that, and adjust accordingly. Imagine how much more effective AO would be if improved his shot selection, and used his teammates more effectively?
Many of those shots on goal lead to a goal or offensive zone draws which lead to even more chances.
- You’re right, some of those shots will lead to garbage goals picked up by other forwards crashing the net, or will lead to offensive zone faceoffs when a goalie freezes the puck. However, many shot attempts that do (or don’t) reach the net will also result in easy clears, offensive zone draw losses at about a 48.3% rate (Caps FO% was 51.7% last year), or shot blocks which can result in odd man rushes the other way. This is not to say that shooting the puck is a bad thing by any means, but taking bad shots is a sure fire way to self-destruct your offense. There’s a huge difference between quality shots, and garbage shots. I’ve seen AO play quite a bit, and he’s far too eager to blast away from the blue line just because he can take a shot instead of pulling up, and looking for an open teammate, or looking to set up the offense.
"Oh, buy Sam a drink and get his dog one too!" - Mike Lange
If AO is taking low percentage shot with a conversion rate of less than 5%, and has a teammate in shooting position ready to take a shot at a 15% conversion rate that he could pass to, handing off the puck to a teammate will result in more goals for the Caps overall. That’s the simplistic way to prove that shooting percentage is an argument that does make sense.
You can’t assume that the teammate is there for a 15% shot because a lot of those shots came on the rush, not a set offense. The scenario you just outlined is a specific case with a couple of assumptions about positioning and relative shooting percentages and it doesn’t actually prove anything.
You’re also assuming with that math that the player with the lousy shot will create the same number of shots as the player with the great shot and lousy selection – it’s simply not true in AO’s case. There are simply more opportunities for shots and even if they aren’t picture perfect ones, they result in more goals.
This is not to say that shooting the puck is a bad thing by any means, but taking bad shots is a sure fire way to self-destruct your offense.
This is true on it’s own, but not in the context in which you used it. The Capitals had no trouble scoring bunches of goals on what you call bad shots, but there’s really no such thing when that shot results in a goal. The system the Caps play doesn’t emphasize setting up the offense in the zone so much as rushing up the ice and creating chances before the defense has a chance to fully set, which means there are some unconventional shots.
by Knee high to a duck on Sep 2, 2009 9:21 PM EDT up reply actions
About using team results as criteria
I agree with you that, in a case like this, it is really impossible to make an objective case in favor of any of these three players being “the best”. Crosby, Malkin, and Ovechkin all have different strengths and weaknesses, and which one you are going to pick depends on which type of player you prefer. At that point, it’s a matter of taste. Personally, I think Ovechkin is the best (and I am a Penguins fan all the way). But that’s just me.
I do object to the suggestion that team results (Stanley Cups, Olympic Golds) should be determine who is the best. Hockey is a team game, and one player can’t do it all himself. I would say that the reason Crosby has won more playoff games and a Stanley Cup is not because he is better than Ovechkin, but because Malkin and Fleury are better than Ovechkin’s teammates. Remember, Malkin was deservedly the playoff MVP, not Crosby.
I would say that the reason Crosby has won more playoff games and a Stanley Cup is not because he is better than Ovechkin, but because Malkin and Fleury are better than Ovechkin’s teammates. Remember, Malkin was deservedly the playoff MVP, not Crosby.
I definitely agree. Hockey is too much of a team sport and has too many moving pieces to pin all the success (or blame) on just one guy in most cases. “Your best players have to be your best players” as they say, but you also need the support players (Fedotenko, Talbot, Eaton, Scuderi, etc) to come through or you have no chance of winning it all.
Crosby could score 0 points in the Olympics and Canada’s stacked enough to win the gold. Probably the same for AO and Russia. Would either be deserving of ultimate credit in that scenario?
Pensburgh.com -- it's like the Max Talbot of blogs*
*not just because we only work for 12 minutes a night
I completely agree with your assessment that all three players play different games, and most of who we might determine is the “best player” comes down to personal preference. The only point that I do have an issue with is the assertion that team results should not matter.
You are right in point out that the Pens assortment of players were better than the Caps’ equivalents, which partly has resulted in Crosby/Malkin > Ovechkin in the Cup department. However, hockey is a team game, and selecting a “best player” should also include an assessment of how that player performs in a team capacity, and affects the players around them. Unfortunately, determination of such team leading skills/attributes are subjective and difficult to measure without having your name firmly etched in the Stanley Cup. In the Pens’ post season run last year that culminated in a Game 7 win over the Red Wings in Detroit, the Pens stars (Crosby, Malkin, et al) were able to overcome a 2-0 deficit, and a Game 7 in Washington to defeat the second seeded Caps. Simply put, if Crosby/Malkin have similarly great seasons to Ovechkin, tie goes to the player with the most rings. After all, it takes more than just talent to win the Cup.
"Oh, buy Sam a drink and get his dog one too!" - Mike Lange
Unfortunately, determination of such team leading skills/attributes are subjective and difficult to measure without having your name firmly etched in the Stanley Cup.
The Stanley Cup doesn’t magically make it easier to measure, it’s still just as difficult and subjective. There’s really no refutation of the team argument there and any measurement would be conflated with the return of Gonchar and the ascendancy of Bylsma. Remember that at nadir, the Penguins were sitting two spots out of 8th – you could just as easily use that as a measuring stick.
Simply put, the guy with the most rings played on teams with some combination of a better supporting cast, better coaching, or better luck, be it with injuries, opponent draw in the playoffs or just a puck bouncing off the boards to the right player.
by Knee high to a duck on Sep 2, 2009 9:34 PM EDT up reply actions
I still think the real debate is Crosby/Datsyuk. Ocho and Geno are fantastic in their own right, and my find themselves with more goals or personal hardware like hart trophies, but Crosby and Datsyuk make their teams better. They are students of the game relying on far more than just skill. Both Malkin and Ocho have said no one sees the ice like Crosby. Crosby and Dats can make the entire opposing teams box collapse or rotate with a single headfake knowing that it will leave one of their wingers wide open with a clear shot at an empty net. Ocho and Geno beat opponents on pure skill and power.
by PensFan024 on Sep 1, 2009 1:53 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
You know, I haven’t thought about that, but now it seems so obvious I want to slap my own forehead for missing it!
"Darling, you say Brooks Orpik 'checked' that guy. He did not 'get under him and put him into the wall'."--Beloved to me, Winter 2007
by GreenEyedLilo on Sep 1, 2009 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions
My biggest problem with the debate is the difference in their positions…
Ovechkin is expected to perform a completely different role on the Capitals then Crosby is on the Penguins… and this seems to be something over looked by almost everyone…
Solid point. A center’s role on the ice is entirely different of that expected from a winger.
Follow the Penguins on SBN @ Pensburgh.com and twitter.
I also fail to see how this debate is officially over given the notion that either player reaches those expectations that Hockey Prospectus lays out for us. If Crosby wins gold, returns to the Finals and takes another Cup, what’s stopping people from saying next year, “Well, if Ovechkin wins two straight Cups, is MVP, and wins the Art Ross a few more times in his career, why isn’t HE the best player?” Regardless of who actually attains those goals (given the idea that at least one of them will), the future will continue to be full of scenarios like the ones presented above.
It’s safe to say this debate will never end, and may very well go on long after both of these guys are done playing. In a way it even happened with Lemieux. No one can really argue how great a player Gretzky was, but remember how people made the Lemieux comparison? “He would’ve been better if he stayed healthy.” Pens fans won’t argue that, but it’s all based on hypotheticals that, needless to say, never came to fruition.
Follow the Penguins on SBN @ Pensburgh.com and twitter.
I agree with this. It’s going to be a debate that follows their careers (hopefully long, healthy careers for all parties involved; for the sake of the players, fans of the teams, and anybody that just enjoys good hockey) and I don’t think there will ever be a definitive year that people will say “this is conclusive.” They are all awesome players. No team would turn them down and torturing numbers won’t ever change that.
A man must have a code.
The leaves ain't changed yet, but...
…look, it’s a sign of autumn! The Crosby/Ovechkin debate is back!
I find these kinds of articles boring, but I’ll bookmark them for next time Future Stepdad’s on the phone and wants to get into it. (As you can imagine, I get roped into taking Crosby’s side, though I think they’re both awesome in really different ways.)
"Darling, you say Brooks Orpik 'checked' that guy. He did not 'get under him and put him into the wall'."--Beloved to me, Winter 2007
?
When will malkin be included in this debate? here is a guy who has carried this team during rough stretches, like when sid goes down. heres a guy with the highest +/- of the big three during the reg season, a better road performer then both sid and ao by a mile, as well as being a much better even strangth player then both.
" Lord Stanley, etch thier names on your fabled cup" Mike Lange june 12, 2009
by oldtimehockey09 on Sep 1, 2009 6:09 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Check your facts
Joe Thornton won the scoring title in Sid’s rookie year. Between Sid and Ovie, they’ve only won two scoring titles.
Where hockey injuries in San Diego are thumb blisters from playing too much NHL 09
and?
" Lord Stanley, etch thier names on your fabled cup" Mike Lange june 12, 2009
by oldtimehockey09 on Sep 1, 2009 7:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Wow, step away from the conversation for a few hours and it really gets good. Seems like you guys settled your difference though.
Kinda.
Sorta.
Ok, probably not.
Follow the Penguins on SBN @ Pensburgh.com and twitter.
Okay so, Fehr and Balanced is cool and smart. Great.
First Jagr to the Caps and where did that go. Then AO, and where is that going… He will never win a CUP with the Caps….
No comparison between the two players as individuals. AO is much more talented individually (ie. Crosby is terrible in shootouts…), but Crosby knows how to play the team game and continues to work on his weaknesses (ie. faceoffs…) which in the end, is much more important to the team, city, franchise, and yes to Bettman and the NHL.
As long as we can pronounce “Gretzky” and “Lemieux”, we are wasting our breath…..
F&B, if you can’t see that, then you will confirm my suspicion that you are my fat friend from H.S. who used to watch me play my games down at the igloo, dissect the whole WPIHL, but never played the game himself…. I see you are still doing the same stuff that everyone hated for during H.S.!!!!! HAHAHAHAHHA!!!
There’s no comparison between Jagr and AO so I don’t know what your point is with that. AO has played 4 seasons and been the cornerstone of a rebuild. There’s still time; I don’t see how Crosby/Malkin winning a Cup first is at all definitive in respect to the argument about their respective talents. Hopefully this story is going to play out over 15-20 years with all parties staying healthy.
If you look at the list of successful shootout artists AO isn’t anywhere near the top; and I think if you look at the list of best shootout scorers you’ll see that most of them aren’t what you’d consider elite talents. It’s not really a correlation. I actually disagree that AO has much more individual talent than Crosby, but ok. To say that AO doesn’t play a team game or work on his weaknesses is just not accurate. You played the game so I assume you realize you can’t get to the level he’s at without a ton of hard work. He’s one of the hardest workers on the ice and always gives his all.
I’m not sure what you meant by the “Gretzky” and “Lemieux” comment. If you mean that they are both elite talents and it comes down to a matter of taste and people will always argue about who they like more, then I completely agree with you. Notice how I haven’t once tried to convince anyone that they should think AO is better than Crosby/Malkin (and I seconded b_rider when he said it’s a matter of preference, as well). I’m over that. I’m responding to ridiculous characterizations of AO that make him sound like he’s lucky to even be in the league. Look at the comment that drew me out of the shadows of internet lurking and ask if you really think that’s an honest evaluation of AO. He won two straight MVPs as voted by the media and the players; you can disagree with the most recent one (I don’t think you can really disagree with the 07-08 one) but you can’t really think that the players and media are so ignorant as to grant the MVP award to such a deficient player, with such glaring weaknesses and flaws, can you?
I’ve actually played the game for many years and still play the game (and, fwiw because i guess it matters I’ve skated on NHL ice as well). At least you can recognize that I am cool and smart. I also speak French – in Russian
A man must have a code.
Comparing
You do know that when comparing individuals, you can not add in their team awards right? I mean I read this whole topic and see nothing but “Sid and Geno are better because they win”
It comes down to this. The evidence is clear. Ovechkin is the better player, right now, and Crosby and Malkin are on a better team right now.
The reason I say the evidence is clear, because the NHL PLAYERS VOTED OVECHKIN THE LEAGUE MVP. Plain and Simple.
The NHL players would have a better Idea of who is the best player in the league.























