Five bold predictions for 2009-10

by Hooks Orpik on Sep 16, 2009 10:06 AM EDT in News

This time of year, seemingly everyone's looking into the crystal ball. Most of the season previews you'll see usually play it safe and name the same old teams to finish at the top and the same old schlubs to suffer at the bottom. Well let's step outside of the comfort zone and give some predictions of some things that could happen.

Join me after the jump for five bold predictions for the Pittsburgh Penguins that you won't see anywhere else...

#1--Sidney Crosby goes for 40+ goals.

He led the NHL in [playoff] goals and now he's attempting to get the feel of a better stick that will give his shots more velocity. Crosby's career high in goals is 39 in his rookie year "all" the way back in 2005-06. With presumably a full-season of the highest caliber line-mates he's had for this long a stretch in Bill Guerin and Chris Kunitz, look for Sid to break his personal best. Also the mentality of players like Kunitz and Guerin, who work hard to dig up loose pucks and throw it to the net has seemed to bring even more of a "nose for the net" for Crosby, he brings his lunch pail when he's playing with guys like that.

#2-- Evgeni Malkin steals the show at the Olympics

Despite winning the scoring title and the playoff MVP, Malkin remains largely in his teammate or countryman's shadow (no need to name either's name, we all know who they are). It may seem like a long time ago but Malkin had a poor "big-time" player reputation for his performance in the 2008 playoffs down the stretch. All those demons were obviously exorcised as he flatly dominated the 2009 playoffs and helped lead the Pens all the way to Lord Stanley. But watch for Geno to really explode at the Olympcs where he's the early expectation is for him to center Ilya Kovalchuk and Alex Frolov. Malkin's going to pull something amazing and it'll be a high profile reason the Russians skate out of Vancouver with the gold. At that point, if for only a moment, Malkin's name won't be behind anyone's.

#3 - Jordan Staal has his best season as a Penguin to date

It'll be tough to statistically top his rookie campaign where he scored 29 goals (playing largely on Malkin's wing) but watch for Jordan Staal to breakout. Petr Sykora was 4th among Penguin forwards with 3:44 a night of power-play time, Miroslav Satan got 2:53 a night, those minutes will need to be replaced. And while guys like Guerin and Kunitz figure to eat into some of that, Staal is the big body perfect for the net to join the super-skilled first unit of Crosby-Malkin-Gonchar-Letang. Praises rung high and wide about Staal's performance at Team Canada's summer camp, even if he's still a long shot to make the team. Watch for Staal to breakout, especially when he gets more power play time and improves on his mark of 2 PP goals in all of 2008-09.

#4- Kris Letang will score more goals than Sergei Gonchar

Letang's seen his goal total modestly rise from 6 in his rookie season to 10 last season. He's settling into the NHL and his role as a power-play mainstay. I got a feeling he's gonna score a lot of goals this season. Even though Gonchar was scoring at a 20 goal pace in his brief regular season (25 games), he's been pretty consistent in his years as a Penguin with season's of 12, 13 and 12 goals. Gonchar ought to do a bit better than 12 or 13, but the young right-handed Letang should eclipse him as the leading goal scorer from the blueline.

#5 - The Penguins have a better year than last

I can hear it now "but they won the Cup last year!!". True, it's impossible really to top that. Perhaps that bold prediction is too bold, but I betcha the Pens end the regular season in a better position than last year's 45-28-9 (99 point) barely 4th place finish in the East. The Penguins were also an uninspiring 19-15-6 on the road, an area they should be able to improve in. Also the goal differential was only +25 over the course of the season (264 goals for, 239 goals allowed). That should be better, especially the goals against figure of 2.91 per game. That would set them up to be better than 4th in the East and give them a better shot entering the playoff drive for the third straight Eastern Conference title.

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Comments

I agree wholeheartedly with the first 3, half-heartedly with the last one, and not at all with the 4th one.

I don’t think Letang will have more goals than Gonchar because: 1) Providing that Gonch stays healthy, he is still…..Gonch. 2) Gogo got some money this past offseason based off of his potential alone. He is going to get every chance to put up points to prove to everyone that he is a bargain. Also, despite Letangs overall better play, Gogo has showed much better powerplay instincts than Tanger. Gogo is a PP natural. 3) Letang, when he is on the PP, still has a tendency to pass, pass, pass like he is too intimidated by taking shots away from Geno and Gonch.

Also, I’m not sure the Pens will have a better season than last, just because of the amount of games they’ve played the last 2 seasons. Add in the Olympics this year, and it may be tough for the Pens to get to the 100-point plateau this year.

by Link_Gaetz on Sep 16, 2009 10:42 AM EDT reply actions

Goligoski may well take some of Letang’s ice, but Letang offers that right handed shot that could buy him a little time…Also, even with a pretty bad shoulder injury, Letang was “wandering” up the ice more and more, I think he’s showing his comfort in pinching in and could really thrive under a full season of Bylsma’s aggressive strategy.

Just you watch, I wouldn’t be surprised if ’Tang nets 15+ this year.

Pensburgh.com -- it's like the Max Talbot of blogs*

*not just because we only work for 12 minutes a night

by Hooks Orpik on Sep 16, 2009 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions

I hope you’re right about Tanger. Unfortunately, if he scores 15+ this year, that will probably mean at least 45 points….

….which will also mean at least $4m or $4.5m per year.

by Link_Gaetz on Sep 16, 2009 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions

Which is roughly $100,000 per point. What a pay scale…

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by FrankD on Sep 16, 2009 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions

Yea it really sucks.

Damn you and your contract, Brent Seabrook!!!

by Link_Gaetz on Sep 16, 2009 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions

Hmmm...

Actually good point. Letang will be due a lot more money after next season and a breakout season will make him very pricey. I’d prefer a decent season, followed by a more manageable pay raise followed by a real breakout. Have to see, certainly he has the talent to score, someone has to take over for Gonch sooner or later.

by Dutch71 on Sep 16, 2009 10:07 PM EDT up reply actions

Factor in...

…a pay cut for Gonch. Gonch won’t be at $5.5M in his next deal. Tanger will be a Pen for a long time.

WE ARE.......PENN STATE!

by Nick7 on Sep 18, 2009 9:16 AM EDT up reply actions

Olympics

You touch on my worry here. The Olympics is the thing that really concerns me. Lots of potential there for injury and for bad blood to develop between teammates. I hope they can leave anything done or said at the Olympics behind when everyone gets back to Pittsburgh.

As for the rest…well, I hope Hooks is right, but I’m too superstitious to try making predictions this early! I just know to stick with the Penguins through thick and thin, and I think anyone who followed them last season understands that.

"Darling, you say Brooks Orpik 'checked' that guy. He did not 'get under him and put him into the wall'."--Beloved to me, Winter 2007

by GreenEyedLilo on Sep 17, 2009 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions

Per #3...

So you are proposing playing our top three centers on the same power play unit? And Staal will score more goals/points with lesser talent on his line, at least until Max gets back? I agree he has his best year as a Pen, but it will be due to his defensive prowess and Penalty killing leading to consideration for the Selke, not the number of times he lights the lamp. If Staal EVER breaks 30 goals as the third-line center, I will be shocked.

I generally agree with the rest. Thanks!

by Ulf Murphy on Sep 16, 2009 11:11 AM EDT reply actions

So you are proposing playing our top three centers on the same power play unit?

Good point. I think the Pens WILL do it some, whether or not it’s a good idea remains to be seen. I don’t think Staal will be playing the full 2 minutes and guys like Adams and Kennedy can take some faceoffs.

It might wreak havoc on lines for a little to use the centers from the top 3 lines, but if they keep quick PP shifts (hopefully from scoring) then it could work. Good topic to debate

Pensburgh.com -- it's like the Max Talbot of blogs*

*not just because we only work for 12 minutes a night

by Hooks Orpik on Sep 16, 2009 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions

I just don’t see it. You are then relegating the 4th line to be the next even-strength line every time, considering the 2nd PP unit will consist of Guerin, Kunitz and Feds/TK/Max (?). Or we have a hybrid line consisting of remaining parts or almost double shifts? I think continuity on special teams breeds success and putting Staal on a 2nd PP unit would be good for him, but in the long run, where would I rather see him play…on the PK.

He has proven to be a dominant PK guy that has the ability to pull off a Madden type season of double digit shorties. If you can score a short-handed goal in the Finals, you are damn good at what you do. Bylsma needs to loosen the reins on the PK to make this work.

by Ulf Murphy on Sep 16, 2009 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions

Sid is shooting more. He has a new stick, put almost seven shots on net last night and scored on two of them. I don’t think 40+ goals for a healthy Sid is impossible.

National pride aside, I’m really looking forward to seeing the Russian national team in the Olympics. The forwards are easily some of the best in the world – Ovechkin – Malkin – Kovalchuk. Whether it’s Malkin or Ovechkin stealing the show, I still think it’s going to be a good outing for them.

I agree. Time for Staal to break through. Judging by his shot sometimes you’d think the nets in Thunder Bay were wider and taller. But you can’t knock how he came through for the Pens in the playoffs, especially with that big shorty against the Wings.

I would love to see Letang score more goals than Gonch. That doesn’t mean I have anything against Gonch. On the contrary, that means they’ll each have over 20 a piece and I won’t hold anyone back from that kind of performance.

The Pens have to have a better year. Like you said, they only tossed up 99 points. That’s really not that good. Sure, they got hot at the right time and really had to fight their way into a playoff spot back in February, but they can do much better than 99 points. Let’s see them take the division this year. It’s not out of the question.

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by FrankD on Sep 16, 2009 11:32 AM EDT reply actions

Beware what you wish for

I certainly think an improvement in point total is in line for the Pens provided that they stay healthy, but their 3 Cups were won in years their point totals were less than stellar. I believe they had 88pts and 87pts in the 91 and 92 Cup years (probably equal to about 97-100pts in todays scoring) and 99 last year. They had better teams point wise and probably overall talent wise in other years in the 90s (especially 93) and didn’t get the Cup which is really all that matters. My pick for the season is 103pts, 4th place.

by Dutch71 on Sep 16, 2009 10:19 PM EDT up reply actions

Says Crosby led the NHL in goals… that is not true. He didn’t even lead the team is goals (unless you meant playoffs, and not regular season). But otherwise, solid points. Should be a good year. Go Pens!

by BuriesIt on Sep 16, 2009 2:25 PM EDT reply actions

Delusion?

Sidney Crosby led the NHL in goals? Dont think so.

The Pens are definitely favorites to take another conference title. I cant wait for the Flyers games, adding Chris Pronger to the mix should inject a lot more fire in the rivalry.

by Walshimania on Sep 16, 2009 2:26 PM EDT reply actions

I’m sure Hooks knows that Sid didn’t lead the league in goals. Dunno what he was trying to say exactly but aside from it being a typo I can assure you Hooks knows what’s up with the top goal scorers in the league.

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by FrankD on Sep 16, 2009 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions

I’m betting he meant the playoffs…

Mark
pensomniac.blogspot.com
don't waste your time.

by pensomniac on Sep 16, 2009 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions

Which would be accurate, since Sid had 15 to Geno’s 14.

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by FrankD on Sep 16, 2009 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions

I did mean playoffs.

Pensburgh.com -- it's like the Max Talbot of blogs*

*not just because we only work for 12 minutes a night

by Hooks Orpik on Sep 16, 2009 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions

eh i put the edit up for you a few seconds ago

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by FrankD on Sep 16, 2009 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions

My Take on the Predictions as a Caps Fan

1) Very likey, about 75% that Sid nets 40… he’s got great hands and a great shot, and I think he will learn he needs to be a little bit more selfish. All this is contingent on him staying healthy….

2) Malkin stealing the Olympic show… dunno. With Russia going in as a co-favorite, they’re really not stealing the show, like Hasek did in 1998 in Japan, or like Kari Lehtonen almost did in 2006 in Italy, when he carried Finland to a silver medal. Let’s say Russia wins gold and both Ovechkin and Malkin are on the all-tournament team.

3) Jordin Staal having his best season makes sense to me… he’s just entering his prime years as a player…

4) I agree Letang will outscore Gonchar. Gonch is not as young as he used to be, and I would not bet on him playing more than 60 or so games. Letang, if he plays all 82, will definitely outscore Gonch.

5) I can see the Pens adding 5-7 points to their record and competing for the top seed in the East. I don’t think they win that because they have a slightly tougher schedule than the Caps. The Pens play an extra 8 games against teams in the Atlantic Division, while the Caps play those 8 extra games against the Southeast. Both divisions have a very good second place team (Southeast has Carolina, Atlantic has Philly), but the quality further down in the Atlantic is better. The Rangers and Devils are clearly better than Atlanta, Florida or Tampa Bay. The Islanders are pretty bad too. I can see the Caps having a better record in their own division than the Pens and that pushes them just ahead of the Pens.

If the Pens were in the Southeast and the Caps were in the Atlantic, the roles would be reversed, and the Pens would be my pick for the top spot in the East.

As for playoffs… a lot depends on who is healthy and who isn’t, but I would expect the Pens to go deep, likely to the Eastern Final where they’ll square off in another epic vs. the Caps (no prediction here… we’ll see what happens)

Let's go Caps!

by MikeL-Pivonka on Sep 16, 2009 2:41 PM EDT reply actions

Good Analysis...

and suprisingly open minded for a Caps fan!! :)

by Ulf Murphy on Sep 16, 2009 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions

Now now...

Most Caps fans are open minded, and don’t forget your lead blogger here lives in the DC area. ;-)

We’ll convert him yet… bwa hah hah!

Let's go Caps!

by MikeL-Pivonka on Sep 16, 2009 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions

He is one of the many black and gold jerseys I see when I watch the away games versus the Caps! I remember going to a Pens game at the Caps Center where the Pens fans outnumbered the Caps fans, or seemed like it. It was like home away from home. :)

Say it ain’t so Frank, say it ain’t so. (Did you do it for the money?)

by Ulf Murphy on Sep 16, 2009 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions

No it’s me who lives in the shadow of the nation’s capital. Thanks though for thinking of me as the lead, but it’s Frank’s show. I’m just the guy sitting in his basement churning out posts.

/doesn’t actually have a basement

Pensburgh.com -- it's like the Max Talbot of blogs*

*not just because we only work for 12 minutes a night

by Hooks Orpik on Sep 16, 2009 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions

It’s not necessarily my show. We have four guys who contribute here.

I’m actually the guy sitting in the basement crying himself to sleep every night though.

/entirely true

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by FrankD on Sep 16, 2009 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions

Crying yourself to sleep with the Stanley Cup? Sheesh…

Let's go Caps!

by MikeL-Pivonka on Sep 17, 2009 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions

It’s a tragic life I live

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by FrankD on Sep 17, 2009 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions

O for such woe here in DC…

Let's go Caps!

by MikeL-Pivonka on Sep 18, 2009 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions

Well...

…it’s natural to think of you as the lead as we see you more at Japers’ than anyone else from these parts. ;-)

Let's go Caps!

by MikeL-Pivonka on Sep 17, 2009 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions

Wouldn’t that perceive him as being more of a contributor at Japers’?

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by FrankD on Sep 17, 2009 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions

True, but Hooks posts a lot here and there, so it was a natural mistake on my part…

Let's go Caps!

by MikeL-Pivonka on Sep 18, 2009 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions

Bloated Heads in Pissburgh

Wow! The Pens managed to win one cup and someone smoking something comes up with these preditions. Here are some predictions that are more likely to come to fruition than this fantasy dribble above. 1) Pronger is going to pound Crosby everytime he takes the ice against the flyers. 2) Just like the Tampa Bay Lightning of a few years ago, the Pens will fade away with their bloated heads. 3) A 9th place conference finish in 2009-10. 4) If the team manages to squeek out an 8th spot, the Pens will never get past the Flyers this year (Philly is resentful of the last two years). 5) Pissburg won’t raise the stanley cup for another 15 years.

by DuckBasher on Sep 17, 2009 3:47 PM EDT reply actions

All of the predictions Hooks lays out are justified considering yes, they did just win the Cup. Yours, however, are bolder than any, seeing as how Pittsburgh has dominated Philly for years and will continue to do so, with or without Pronger. Emery? Really? Come on.

15 years? Doubt it. But even then, 15 years is sooner than Philly’s chance of raising it.

Thank you for trolling.

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by FrankD on Sep 17, 2009 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions

And that 15 years would be only a fraction of the time since Philly last won the Cup.

by PensFan024 on Sep 17, 2009 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions

The last time the Flyers won the Cup...

…the Caps were in their first year of existence.

I can’t see the Flyers winning the Cup unless they improve their goaltending right quick, as Emery is likely not the answer (he’s got these annyong, self-destructive habits.) Going into this season among likely playoff teams in the East, the Rangers probably have the best goaltending, followed by either Carolina or New Jersey, then the Pens, Boston, with the Caps behind them, and then Philly. And there are teams in the conference with better goaltending situations (Florida, Atlanta, Ottawa) that are likely better off in net than Philly as well…

The Flyers are going to have to win a lot of games by outscoring the opponent, and that’s tough to do 4 out of 7 against Washington, Boston or Pittsburgh…

Let's go Caps!

by MikeL-Pivonka on Sep 18, 2009 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions

Is Varly the guaranteed starter for Washington or is it still up in the air?

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by FrankD on Sep 18, 2009 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions

As of now...

…Theodore is the starter according to the coaching staff, meaning they want either Varlamov or Neuvirth to unseat him clearly. This serves two purposes, in that the kids will have to work hard to unseat him, and it also means that they’re saying that Theo has some value.

Let's go Caps!

by MikeL-Pivonka on Sep 18, 2009 11:39 PM EDT up reply actions