Adjustments and tweaks: what can happen improve the Pens
by Hooks Orpik on Jan 4, 2010 2:01 PM EST
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Print"Sometimes you're flush and sometimes you're bust; and when you're up, it's never as good as it seems, and when you're down, you never think you'll be up again. But life goes on."
An appropriate quote (from the movie "Blow") for the current situation, huh?
About halfway into the season, and despite being mired in the current five game losing streak, the Pittsburgh Penguins are solidly in 4th place. The big pack of teams is from 5th place to 13th place, with those nine teams separated by just eight points (Boston currently leading them with 49, Philly and Florida at the bottom with 41). The Penguins have a little separation from that shuffle with 53 points.
The danger for Pittsburgh is they're about to lose touch with the top three teams. It's really only of importance that New Jersey is separating, obviously since with the standings system if you're not 1st in your division, you're 4th in the conference, Ricky Bobby. NJ is now six points up on Pittsburgh with three games in hand, so they Pens are in anywhere from a 6-12 point hole. It's too early to concede it, but it sure looks like the Devils will be division winners, once again leaving Pittsburgh in that 4-5 first round playoff matchup, assuming they hold off the pack of teams.
To get the Pens out of the rut and ready for the playoffs, let's look at some potential scenarios for changes behind the jump.
Fire someone. Mike Yeo figures to be the main candidate, since he runs a power-play with Top 10 talent, but #30 results. Dan Bylsma's safe (duh) and Tony Granato's seemed to fit in well too. (Chances of this actually happening: 35%)
Call-up a youngster. It's quite obvious the Penguins don't get a lot of skill performances out of Top 6 forwards other than Crosby, Malkin and Guerin. 21 year old Luca Caputi leads Wilkes-Barre/Scranton with 13 goals and has five games of NHL experience. Mark Letestu, though a natural center, has 31 points in 27 games down on the farm. Dustin Jeffrey is among AHL leaders in points and has 28 assists in 34 games. Jeffrey's also been playing LW lately. An infusion of skill and youthful "happy to be here" energy could jumpstart things.
Young players are also cheap, and though no one has access to the exact capology numbers, the Penguins should be able to afford adding a rookie to the books without having to waive/trade an existing member of the team. (Chances of this happening: 65%)
Make a trade. The most difficult option. We all know that the Bettman point keeps teams in the playoff hunt longer, so there are limited "sellers". Good and established players usually come with good-sized contracts, an issue for a team that needs to basically trade dollar for dollar to stay under the cap. Young, promising players with cheap contracts are too valuable for other teams to trade.
Looking at the possible candidates to be dealt (either to clear salary or be vital parts of the deal), one would have to think a lot of the roster that makes over $1 million could be in jeopardy. Obviously core players (Crosby, Malkin, Staal, Fleury, Goligoski, Orpik, etc) aren't going anywhere and vets like Gonchar, McKee and Cooke that are impending UFA's are too valuable in their roles to trade. But a guy like Pascal Dupuis ($1.4 million hit) or Ruslan Fedotenko ($1.8 million)? Somebody's head is going to be on the chopping block. (Chances of this happening: 10%) (And by that I mean an immediate trade, not a deadline deal)
Ray Shero's seeing the same games we are and isn't content with losing either. But in the big scheme of things, a five game slide in the dog days of winter doesn't mean too much to a two-time defending conference champion. Playoff positioning and staying above the pack of tightly knit teams from 5-13th should be the goal for now. To do that, there may not be any outside changes needed at all, just a renewed work ethic and intensity brought to the games. But it's no fun to baselessly speculate about that.
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thanks for the thread Hooks;)
Here’s my proposal for immediate changes: call up Letestu and Jeffrey (not Caputi) scratch Fedotenko and Adams(or Max) and forward lines to look like this:
Changes on the 2nd and 4th line respectively:
Jeffrey-Malkin-Dupuis (or Dupuis-Jeffrey-Malkin since Jeffrey is actually a better face-off man)
Rupp-Letestu-Talbot
Also I think the D pairings should be put back as they were:
Orpik-Gonchar
Eaton-Letang
McKee-Gogo
You have to see it for yourself...
At least for the immediate future, I’d like to see them shift Malkin to Crosby’s line, just to give him that little boost of confidence.
You come at the king, you best not miss.
I agree. For a while now we’ve always heard about trying to find Crosby someone to playo n his wing. Now it would seem like it’s the same issue with a different guy; Malkin. He did exhibit some good chemistry with Fedotenko last yr, but this time around it doesn’t seem like it’s rollin too well.
So do you boost Malkin to L1 with Crosby and Guerin? If so, then what do you think L2 would look like? I’m all for Kunitz-Staal-Fedotenko, but I’m concerned about moving Staal off line three.
Thoughts?
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Staal seems like he’s having some success on the third line because the top opposing d pairings are already used on sid and geno. I’d be hesitant to take him off there
by stoopidtom on Jan 4, 2010 6:18 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I don’t really think we will see any call ups unless this current skid continues to at least the 8 plus game range, but its fun to speculate. I still think if anyone gets called up though its going to be Caputi. Jeffery may be playing better right now, but Caputi is the Pens top6 winger of the future. Jeffery doesn’t seem to be thought of in the same way. Part of me still thinks they don’t want to call Caputi up again until the Pens believe hes ready to stay with the big club. Whether that will be this season or not until next season remains to be seen. I wouldn’t mind seeing Jeffery getting called up to maybe take Max’s place. I’m sorry, but the “Superstar” well Hooks referenced the appropriate movie for his play since hes been back. Who knows but I just dont see Jeffery getting a shot in the big clubs top6
Jeffery may be playing better right now, but Caputi is the Pens top6 winger of the future. Jeffery doesn’t seem to be thought of in the same way.
You’re right, they have used Jeffrey in a much more defensive role at the NHL. But really, to learn the speed of the game and not make a guy look foolish, you have to protect the young guys that are a little out of their element, at least at first.
I’d love to see Jeffrey get a shot again, but I think Caputi’s playing very well too and could add something. We’ll see if they decide to let them keep growing at the AHL level or if perhaps it’s time to see if they can contribute anything in the NHL.
You come at the king, you best not miss.
since this season is the first when I’m able to follow some of the WBS games too I’d like to share my opinion on the boys down there…
there’s been a certain degree of hype about Caputi for a while now but honestly from what I’ve seen in the AHL this year, I believe he still needs to develop more. Yes, he’s one of the go-to guys down in WBS, but definitely not the most NHL ready.
Jeffrey will not be pressed into a goal-scoring role in the NHL, so he’ll adapt easier. I see him as a poor man’s Jordan Staal (OK, a very poor man’s may be;). And why no love for Letestu… he has, I think, showed he can contribute and make plays in the few games he played.
You have to see it for yourself...
The last game Letetsu played with the big club he played great, but hes a center. The Pens are pretty well set at that position.
“Jeffrey will not be pressed into a goal-scoring role in the NHL” but the Pens need someone to fit a goal scoring role. Third and fourth lines arent the problem.
by genomachine-O on Jan 5, 2010 9:19 AM EST up reply actions
I see Gonchar being traded by the time the deadline’s here. I agree, though, that it won’t happen too long before that.
I also have a FanPost (or two!) rolling around in my head related to the power play. If I get some time, I’ll put them together, or at least the first one.
The Pens will have to be blown away by an offer for Gonchar to trade him at the deadline. They need Gonchar for another playoff run. Hes still their best defensemen, and you just dont trade your #1 defensemen heading into the playoffs. If he plays out the season then walks its not the end of the world because it will free up some cap space to sign other guys. Remember Goligoski and Orpik are the only current defensemen under contract for next year.
by genomachine-O on Jan 4, 2010 3:15 PM EST up reply actions
Letang has a huge upside too, and even though they consider him a “core” guy, he’s not going to come cheap. They obviously have to pick between him and Gonchar after the season, but Letang could bring someone or something huge if they can’t find anything else.
I’d hate to see that, since I think He and Orpik will be the top D-men after this year. I think Gonchar might be a bit fragile to depend on long term.
I think it all depends on what both are asking. If Letang won’t budge from a price that’s too high, I think they’d keep Gonchar over him and deal the younger player.
If Gonchar wants too much/too long I think they’d let him walk at the end of the year and focus on signing Letang.
You come at the king, you best not miss.
I have a completely unrrelated question Does anyone one else have a picture quality issues with FSN HD lately? Saturdays game at Tampa was just a terrible picture on my tv. Its a brand new tv so id like to think thats not the problem. FSN HD has not looked good since i bought it. Ive watched games on versus and they look amazing, fsn HD tho Garbage. The regular FSN channel looks better than FSN HD to me. Anyone else have this problem?
Really, boy for what center ice costs that sucks. It seems like even the studio pre and post game shows look bad. None of the other channels do though. I cant figure it out.
by genomachine-O on Jan 4, 2010 3:49 PM EST up reply actions
Sometimes I think FSN just made the picture bigger and aren’t really broadcasting in HD. VS’ neon white ice is definitely in HD.
I agree I don’t know what it is about FSN their HD just does not look good at all. I watched the Rangers Bruins game on versus last night and it looked great. Glad I’m not the only one that has an issue with this.
by genomachine-O on Jan 5, 2010 7:48 AM EST up reply actions
I don’t see any way that is possible. That’s not me being a pessimist, but instead I just think it’s impossible on so many levels; money and sacrifice being just two of those things.
Follow the Penguins on SBN @ Pensburgh.com and twitter.
by FrankD on Jan 4, 2010 6:48 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I know I figured I’d just throw that out there
by stoopidtom on Jan 4, 2010 8:06 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Is anybody watching the same Pens team I am. Why keep Letang? Sign Gonchar – He runs the power play and it obviously struggles without him even though it is struggling in general this year. Letang cant even hit the net on his shot in general and the only good defensive job he does is skate the puck out of the zone. Come on – Trade Letang for a decent winger, sign Gonchar for a couple more seasons and bring up these young d-men. Engelland and Lovejoy didn’t play bad at all when they were here. Waive Skoula NOW!!
While I’ve never been a big Letang fan I’m worried that good offensive Dmen don’t come around too often, and especially in the current Pittsburgh prospects.
Say we trade Letang (which I hope we do if he really wants 4 or more mil/year) and sign Sarge for the next 2 years (which I think is the most he would be able to keep his top-level game). Then what? We really have to hope and pray Despres develops rapidly into a good overall Dman or we’ll be very short on offensively gifted players in the back end.
So what could RS actually do if he waits for the summer before starting negotiations with Letang and he wants too much? can we trade rights and get something in return? That RFA situation has never been quite clear to me…
You have to see it for yourself...
Letang has played his way out of asking for 4 mil a year. Yes his upside is huge, but his point totals are not where they should be at this point of his career. However if you have to decide between Letang and Gonchar, you take Letang…everytime. Gonchar has 2 maybe 3 good years left. Letang has a whole career ahead of him. Right now with the way Letang is playing I think the most he will get from the Pens in 3 mil. He would be overpaid in the early years, but could end up being a bargain in the future. I think Goligoskis new deal should give Shero some reference point as to what he should pay Letang. I think GoGo’s cap hit is 1.875 a year (which was an awsome deal on Sheros part) Letang shouldn’t get more than that. Goligoski is a better defenseman right now. Though I’m sure Letang is still going to ask for a lot more.
by genomachine-O on Jan 5, 2010 7:45 AM EST up reply actions
Why keep Letang? What?!? Perhaps because young puck moving defensmen don’t grow on trees. Maybe because Gonchar has become a liability with significant time missed the past two seasons. Who knows? Maybe because Gonchar doesn’t have many productive years left. I don’t see him running the powerplay too effectively right now either. Engelland and Lovejoy couldn’t carry Tanger’s jock strap. Trading Letang would really hurt the team in the future if those two are our options. Furthermore, Skoula has proved to be more effective than both of those two.
I don’t see trading Letang hurting the future of this team one bit. He’s not worth more than Goligoski and he says he’s going to ask for $4 mil/year. Trade him for a good return. Bring up Lovejoy and let him develop. So PensFan024 – Gonchar is not running the power play effecitvely. If he’s not out there – who is? Goligoski – NOT LETANG!! Letang can’t hit a blind side of a barn with that stupid shot he has. All his job is on the power play is to shoot the puck and hit the freakin net. And your saying Skoula is more effective than Lovejoy and Engelland?? Are you kidding?? Let’s just say I’m glad your not involved in the Penguins roster.
Letangs 4 mil is a starting point for negotiations. He and his agent know that he is not going to get that much a year yet, at least not from the Penguins. If you dont see trading Letang hurting the team in the future, then I’m glad your not in charge of rosters decisions. He has the biggest upside of any defensmen in the Penguins system. I find his missing the net on nearly every shot as frustrating as you do, however you can’t trade him unless you really cant work out a reasonable deal for him. It doesn’t happen very often, but I could see a team putting in an offer sheet for Letang that the Pens simply couldn’t match. That worries me a little seeing how a new deal for him doesn’t seem to be coming until the offseason when he’ll be a RFA.
by genomachine-O on Jan 5, 2010 9:36 AM EST up reply actions
I’m not impressed by Letang’s work this year. And frankly even last year I was a bit apprehensive to jump on the Letang wagon. He can move the puck but lacks a physical presence. He can shoot but lacks accuracy. Maybe these things are areas he can focus on down the road. No way in hell you give him $4 mill a year after a season like this, but he and Goligoski both have a chance of being the future of this blue line. Some d-men, especially offensive ones, take a while to come along. On a similar note, sometimes offensive d-men may hit that wall late in their career. Is that where Gonchar comes into play?
Follow the Penguins on SBN @ Pensburgh.com and twitter.
Letangs not going to be a physical presence on the ice though. For his size you don’t see him shying away from making a play because hes going to get hit. I think he is physical enough in the corners. Thats why you pair him with a guy that is a more of a stay home guy and more of a physical presence. His offensive abilities really started to show at the end of last season and some in the playoffs. I agree he hasn’t been playing well this year, and still needs to assert himself more on the attack. There may be no way in hell you want to pay him 4 mil and you shouldn’t. But someone will give him 3-3.5 mil.
by genomachine-O on Jan 5, 2010 12:15 PM EST up reply actions
yeah, Skoula is really not a player who excels in some specific aspect of the game. I dug up some stats and he hasn’t been better than Lovejoy and Engelland in either points, shot blocking, hitting and has an unimpressive +/- rating. The only thing is that he takes considerably less penalties per minute played.
Nevertheless I think RS and the coaching staff will keep him so that they have an experience Dman to spare come playoff time (see Boucher). Yes, it’ll be great to give some time for our younger players to develop, but in the cap days it’s difficult… so I agree with genomachine that they’re due to see more ice time next season.
You have to see it for yourself...
I see Lovejoy coming up next year. But I am not at all impressed with Engelland. Too many penalties. We don’t need one of our defensemen getting a fighting major every game and messing up the pairings temporarily.
Yea I’m not crazy about a fighting defenseman either, most fighting defenseman get turned into 4th line forwards ex. Biz Nasty. Im not saying they should turn him into a forward, but its harder to survive in the NHL with 5 dman than in the AHL.
by genomachine-O on Jan 5, 2010 11:53 AM EST up reply actions
I don’t understand all the hate for Skoula. Yea hes not great, but hes a pretty solid defenseman…especially when you consider hes our 7th dman. Sure I would like to see Lovejoy here still cuz he seemed to look like the only WBS callup that looked like he could play in the NHL on a consistent basis right now. He’ll get plenty of that next year though. The Pens don’t have much cap space & carrying 8 defenseman wouldn’t be an ideal situation. Def. not if you want to see a trade at the deadline. They are paying Skoula hes going to be the guy to step in for an injured D.
The Letang or Gonchar debate is a good one. As Shero will definitely have some decisions to make. My guess is the priority will be to keep Gonchar as long as he can be afforded. Letang has not impressed anyone this season so far and Goligoski has been very good (especially before he got hurt). With Goligoski signed for the next 3 years and at a cheap pay rate, it makes Letang expendable. Also, Letang definitely has trade value too as he is young and has lots of upside. I do not think any team needs 3 offensive defenseman of the caliber of Gonchar, Goligoski and Letang. The real factor for Shero’s decision making will be who we have in the system and if any of them will able to fill in the roles both sooner and later. This defense will need them when/if Letang is traded maybe this season (sooner) and in 3 or so years when Gonchar is done (later).
I can’t believe how many people would keep Gonchar over Letang. Gonchar 35, Letang 22. That right there should be enough to make up your mind. So if you trade Letang then sign Gonchar for what he wants which is 5mil still some how. Where are your other dman coming from? I can see bringing up Lovejoy, but not Engelland and Guenin. Thats not going to leave much money for a solid d-core 1-6. Gonchar has not shown the ability to stay healthy the last few years. The Pens just cant afford that big of a risk, and resigning him for the money he wants is a big risk. I will guarantee right now that if the Pens have to choose between 55 and 58 they are going to pick Letang.
by genomachine-O on Jan 5, 2010 3:43 PM EST up reply actions
I will agree with you it would be hard to keep Gonchar over Letang if Gonchar wants 5 mil a year. I was thinking 3.5 to 4 million at the most. I guess it will come down to how much we can get each player for. I definately would not pay Letang 4 million a year. With Goligoski’s contract in place, it would be hard to justify paying Letang anything over 2.5 to 3 million. Even that is a stretch in my opinion.
Everybody is down on Letangs play, I’m a little dissapointed too, but hes only 22. Not everyone can jump right into the NHL and be one of the best in the game…pens fans are spoiled that way. Letang was great in the playoffs last year, seems like a lot of people forget that. Hes struggling right now, but so are a lot of penguins.
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