Know your Opponent: Nashville edition
Despite Nashville not really being THAT far away, they're in the Western Conference so most Pens fans don't get to see them too much. So to help us out we enlisted Chris Burton from SB Nation blog On the Forecheck to give us a little about the Predators.
"They started off with a bang, with three straight wins and an elite-looking power play. Upon being asked what was working for the team after their 3rd straight win, Steve Sullivan said "everything's working". It was a pretty crazy first week, as Sullivan lead the NHL in goals for a short time and rookie backup goaltender Anders Lindback acquitted himself amazingly well in relief of Pekka Rinne. This was the team we anticipated coming into the year, but it was still surprising to see everything clicking like it did.
Then the Capitals came to town. Nashville, once again, came out with their hair on fire and jumped out to a 2-0 lead. Then they stopped doing all the things that had made them successful - they couldn't score on the power play, couldn't win the little battles, and weren't moving their feet. They went on to lose the game 3-2, and proceeded to lose the next one to Calgary (in overtime) 1-0. During that stretch, they lost top center Matthew Lombardi to concussion, do-it-all pivot Marcel Goc to a separated shoulder, US Olympian Ryan Suter to a knee injury.
Anyway, that was a little long winded - the point is, tonight's game will be a big test of Nashville's resiliency. They're down key players, and facing one of the league's better teams. I'm guessing they do well, but you never can tell, can you?"
Thanks Chris! Be sure to check out OtF for more coverage, including Frank's take on the Penguins....After the jump the expected lines that the Predators will throw out there.
Dumont - Wilson - Erat
Hornqvist - O'Reilly - Sullivan
Ward - Legwand - Tootoo
Smithson - Spaling - Kostitsyn
Weber/Klein
Franson/Bouillon
O'Brien/Sulzer
Rinne
Lindback
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No no. We don’t play that game around here.
Follow the Penguins on SBN @ Pensburgh.com, twitter and now on the official Pensburgh Facebook page
once again, came out with their hair on fire
CGNC will love that part.
Nashville played us tough in our last meeting, forcing the Pens to settle for a charity point in the shootout loss. I’m sure they won’t be taken lightly tonight. Go Fleury. Go Pens.
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by PensAreYourDaddy on Oct 21, 2010 8:35 AM EDT reply actions
Scouting Report
I always love playing Western Conference teams, albeit not the 10pm start times so thankfully we don’t have any of those this year. There already is a contrast in the way the two conferences play and I love seeing how our style is going to hold up from year to year.
Hooks, I think you made a comment yesterday that Nashville doesn’t score a lot. The great thing about their team is they don’t have to. Pekka Rinne is amazing and his backup held up pretty well over the first few games to keep them at 4th in goals against. They are also one of the least penalized teams The amazing thing about that is they one of the worst teams on the PK. Nashville is definitely a 5-8 playoff seed and no slouch.
I read that Fleury is the expected starter tonight. If that’s the case let’s hope he gets offensive support to make his transition back into the game a good one. The injuries Nashville have taken will be the story of tonight but that is part of hockey.
The way the team has been flying around the ice should make this one a fun one to watch. Here’s hoping Rinne doesn’t stand on his head tonight.
"Right now, Pittsburgh is committed to Wilkes-Barre in ways I don't think we've seen before. You see the signings. Everything that can be put into place over the summer has been put into place." - Tom Grace
Yeah, you’re right, they’re no slouch at all. And even though they don’t have the extreme skill and firepower, it’s always a tough game.
So Ryan Suter being out could be a big time break. Shea Weber is a beast but they’re a little weaker without his usual partner.
"Game's the same. Just got more fierce."
Agree completely on Suter, he is a beast in his own right. Pens forwards will have a little more room out there tonight.
by LastSonOfKrypton on Oct 21, 2010 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions
In all seriousness, Suter may be the better of the two. He’s not as flashy, but he’s an unbelievably good defensive player who still moves the puck very well.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Oct 21, 2010 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions
For those who remember the latest Olympics, Shea Weber can literally shoot the puck THROUGH the net!
I’ve only watched Rinne play two or three games, but like everyone else who sees him I was impressed. He’s so big (6’5" I believe) that when he is on his game there is absolutely nothing to shoot at. If you do manage to catch him out of position he has some impressive Hasek-style flopping fish abilities for a big man.
I recently saw Weber play in person, TV doesn’t do him justice. He’s very very solid, positionally, knows just when to jump in the play and the shot.
It’s the best shot I’ve seen in person since Sheldon Souray.
"Game's the same. Just got more fierce."
by Hooks Orpik on Oct 21, 2010 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions
I also watched Weber play in person against my hometown Brandon Wheatkings in the WHL Final in 2005. Watching him then (won playoff MVP and beat us in 5 games), and at the WJHC, you could tell he had all the tools to become the star he is today. One of the best (and still maybe underrated) defenceman in the league, imo.
by LastSonOfKrypton on Oct 21, 2010 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions
Drew Doughty has all the hype and potential
Mike Green has the gaudy offensive numbers
Duncan Keith is riding the wave of a great playoff
Nicklas Lidstrom has the reputation
But I think I’d take Weber over any of them for my team. Doughty’s young and unproven, Lidstrom’s old and declining, Green’s a trainwreck when the games count and Keith…well it’s hard to say much against him but I’d take Weber anyways.
"Game's the same. Just got more fierce."
by Hooks Orpik on Oct 21, 2010 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions
Personally, I would take Doughty over them all, but then I`m right there with ya. Weber would be my 2nd choice easily.
by LastSonOfKrypton on Oct 21, 2010 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah Weber is certainly right up there with the best of the best. Personally I don’t think Green deserves to be mentioned in any conversation about D-men. He’s a 3rd winger and worse in his own end than Goligoski (although, Go-go looks to be improving in his own end this season). You could put a traffic cone on the ice and it’d be better defensively than Green. At least you’d have to go around the cone instead of through it.
by SidgeniMalsby on Oct 21, 2010 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Nah.. just a 3rd winger. A rover has the responsibility (and ability) to getting back in his own zone and play some D when the other team gets the puck :-P
by SidgeniMalsby on Oct 21, 2010 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions
to getting back? obviously that should be minus the ‘ting’
by SidgeniMalsby on Oct 21, 2010 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Since you mentioned it, I noticed in your earlier comment that you ended a sentence with a preposition (“there is absolutely nothing to shoot at”). I’m sure you meant to say there was absolutely nothing at which to shoot.

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by PensAreYourDaddy on Oct 21, 2010 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions
lol….right, English is not Latin! Ending sentences with prepositions is something I have no problem with.
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by PensAreYourDaddy on Oct 21, 2010 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions
English has far too many arcane rules to go by!
by SidgeniMalsby on Oct 21, 2010 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions
The traffic cone would be way more clutch than Mike Green though.
by LastSonOfKrypton on Oct 21, 2010 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Mike Green showed how bad of a defenseman he was last year in the playoffs. When a city gets on someone’s case for not playing d during the playoffs it is a big deal. Here’s the problem….they said that about Semin and he is a forward….when you say one of your d-men can’t play d? Big problems.
And based on Hooks’ list above…my rankings would be, however there are a few extra names I would throw out there.
1. Weber
2. Doughty
3. Lidstrom
4. Keith
Way down the list is Green – not even in the conversation
"Right now, Pittsburgh is committed to Wilkes-Barre in ways I don't think we've seen before. You see the signings. Everything that can be put into place over the summer has been put into place." - Tom Grace
What the hell are you on about with Semin not playing defense? Semin might have the most defensive skill out of any player in the Caps’ lineup. His effort and focus? Not consistent. His defensive abilities, however, are beyond reproach.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Oct 21, 2010 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions
No love for our boys? How about some Tanger love man…
Letestu for Calder!
Staal for Selke
Sid for Everything!
Leave MAF Alone!!!
Just so I never have to answer this again. I'm from Singapore so whenever you see me online, I'm either sleep deprived or just waking up.
Please tell me you’re not serious.
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Rosby sucks! Malkin is lazy! Trade Staal! Flower gives up soff goals, he sucks! One word: adversity. Every team goes through it; let's try and stay calm.
Nash says Malkin's fist has "big taste."
He’s a 3rd winger and worse in his own end than Goligoski (although, Go-go looks to be improving in his own end this season).
Mike Green isn’t a great defensive player by any means, but his style helps. Look at his GAA ON/60 and it’s among the lowest in the league. The other team can’t score when he has the puck and is going up the ice.
That said, we see what happens in the playoffs, he’s standing there watching Crosby score from the doorstep or making bad mistakes in the Montreal game 7, etc. Not a prime time player by any means, but he’s effective in the regular season.
"Game's the same. Just got more fierce."
by Hooks Orpik on Oct 21, 2010 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah there is truth to that. The fact that he more often than not plays D when Ovechkin and Backstrom are on the ice might have more to do with that stat than his skill, but there is definitely truth to that.
by SidgeniMalsby on Oct 21, 2010 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Say what you will...
But there is no doubt about it, Mike Green DOES deserve a spot in this conversation. I’m not a stats expert, but I know that you can look up any of Green’s stats and he holds his own on defense while putting up serious numbers offensively. I’d take him on the pens any day
"90% of the game is physical. The other half is mental." - Yogi Berra
I’m not a stats expert, but I know that you can look up any of Green’s stats and he holds his own on defense while putting up serious numbers offensively.
Just curious, what stats have you seen that make you think he’s a good defender?
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Rosby sucks! Malkin is lazy! Trade Staal! Flower gives up soff goals, he sucks! One word: adversity. Every team goes through it; let's try and stay calm.
Nash says Malkin's fist has "big taste."
I believe his goals against when he was on the ice was like 2.10 last year (or in that range). Considering that he plays 25+ a night, against the other team’s top scorers a lot, that’s very good.
Your eyes will remember the big time blunders, but Green usually builds very impressive work over the course of the season….Just has had physical or mental problems that prove costly to his team (and reputation for the Norris/Team Canada) in the playoffs every year.
"Game's the same. Just got more fierce."
Your eyes will remember the big time blunders, but Green usually builds very impressive work over the course of the season….Just has had physical or mental problems that prove costly to his team (and reputation for the Norris/Team Canada) in the playoffs every year.
Like this?
Twitter
Rosby sucks! Malkin is lazy! Trade Staal! Flower gives up soff goals, he sucks! One word: adversity. Every team goes through it; let's try and stay calm.
Nash says Malkin's fist has "big taste."
we aren’t arguing Green’s ability to put up amazing stats during the regular season. When the playoffs come along – he is absolutely awful – his stats drop from more then a point per game average to below 1 – he also drops to a minus player from a plus player. I hope he never ends up on the Pens because a player like that proves he is a liability when d is needed and the games get tighter.
"Right now, Pittsburgh is committed to Wilkes-Barre in ways I don't think we've seen before. You see the signings. Everything that can be put into place over the summer has been put into place." - Tom Grace
by NEPA Pens on Oct 21, 2010 2:36 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
WIthout being in his head, it’s hard to prove anything.
Also, show me a list of players who maintain the same scoring rate during the playoffs that they do in the regular season. As far as I know, that list goes 3 deep with guys who’ve been in the playoffs recently – Crosby, Ovechkin, Franzen. I’m not going to defend his recent play in the playoffs; it was indefensible. That said, there’s plenty of noise in scoring rates and ostensibly you’re matching up against tougher competition in the playoffs — you’d expect scoring to drop as you play tougher opponents more consistently.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Oct 21, 2010 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Add Malkin to that list.
Twitter
Rosby sucks! Malkin is lazy! Trade Staal! Flower gives up soff goals, he sucks! One word: adversity. Every team goes through it; let's try and stay calm.
Nash says Malkin's fist has "big taste."
WIthout being in his head, it’s hard to prove anything
What does that have to do with anything. If I could be in any players head it is hard to prove anything. With that being said, it is proven to us by what we see and what we see from Green in the playoffs is pathetic.
"Right now, Pittsburgh is committed to Wilkes-Barre in ways I don't think we've seen before. You see the signings. Everything that can be put into place over the summer has been put into place." - Tom Grace
I think we’re about to have a semantic argument. I’ve got a formal economics and math background; prove is a very strong word to me. You can say observed or similar, but the bar to clear for proof is very high.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Oct 21, 2010 5:57 PM EDT up reply actions
So how does someone who has a Math background not focus on the statistics over the last few seasons and instead say we can’t know what he is thinking? I prove the case to you statistically and you want to move to psychology. Then when I bring up about the psychology of it…you want to go back to statistics? You sure you don’t have a background in BS too?
"Right now, Pittsburgh is committed to Wilkes-Barre in ways I don't think we've seen before. You see the signings. Everything that can be put into place over the summer has been put into place." - Tom Grace
Because you’re not offering statistical proof. You’re offering very small sample size observations. If you tried to run any kind of confidence interval on those data sets, you’d find they were huge and not at all conclusive. Hence, not proving anything. Evidence? Perhaps. Proof? Hardly.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Oct 21, 2010 6:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Look at his GAA ON/60
Much as I wish it weren’t, some of that is high ES SV% noise. Green is adequate defensively, but that number is artificially low because the Caps’ even-strength goaltending was ridiculous last season. Pucks just weren’t crossing the line that would in other seasons.
You’re 100% right about the breakout, though. Green’s one of the best in the league at skating the puck up the ice and making the opposing forecheck miss, or finding the right outlet pass. For a team like the Caps, it’s crucial to have a D that can carry the puck into the attacking zone and allow the forwards to draw coverage away from the good scoring areas. Once that happens, the puck is in your end and you’re not getting shots or points against the Caps from 200 feet away.
You’re also 100% right about Green being a total headcase. If he ever figures out that he just has to be MIke Green and not what other people want him to be (Rod Langway or Bobby Orr, depending on who you ask), he’s going to light up a playoff.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Oct 21, 2010 5:13 PM EDT up reply actions
He’s a 3rd winger and worse in his own end than Goligoski (although, Go-go looks to be improving in his own end this season).
I watch 85+ Caps games a year; you’re flatly wrong about this. It’s an easy trope and when Green screws up, he screws up hugely, but he’s an above-average defender because of his skating ability. A lot of 50/50 pucks never end up in a battle because he simply outskates the offense getting towards it. He benefits from playing with AO, Backstrom, and Semin, but they also benefit from playing with him.
The playoff decline of the last two seasons is totally inexcusable, though. Believe me, he catches a ton of flack from Caps’ fans about it. That said, he dominated the Flyers’ series the season before that. On a team with Ovechkin and Semin, the Flyers were gameplanning to stop Mike Green. That ought to tell you something.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Oct 21, 2010 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Lot to touch on here…
1. I live outside of Philly. The reason they game planned around Mike Green was also because his play leaves him out of position and with a good opportunity for the other team. Dominated the series? The Caps lost the series. Green had 7pts (2 of which were in a 6-3 loss). He had 15 pim with 5 of them being a fighting major.
2. Yes, I will give you that you play tougher competition in the playoffs. However, when you get knocked out 3 years in a row by lower seeds…and…never get passed the second round? Mike Green is not that good.
3. Mike Green = Great during the regular season. Awful during the playoffs. He statistically takes more penalty minutes in the playoffs.
4. As far as Semin – you may be right being that you watch more of the games, however, there were talks about how he wasn’t the answer because of D and not showing up last year.
Finally…you have to look at this collectively. He does more to hurt his team in the playoffs then to help him. Goes from goals and assists to a negative and more penalties. And the reason? He is not good in his own zone.
"Right now, Pittsburgh is committed to Wilkes-Barre in ways I don't think we've seen before. You see the signings. Everything that can be put into place over the summer has been put into place." - Tom Grace
Dominated the series? The Caps lost the series. Green had 7pts (2 of which were in a 6-3 loss). He had 15 pim with 5 of them being a fighting major.
And that was with the Flyers planning their play around stopping him. I suppose I should have written that he was dominant in that series and you’d be hard pressed to show me any metric that said otherwise. What do the points in a lose have to do with anything? That says he was one of the few to show up during that game.
Yes, I will give you that you play tougher competition in the playoffs. However, when you get knocked out 3 years in a row by lower seeds…and…never get passed the second round? Mike Green is not that good.
Terrible argument if you’re going to acknowledge that hockey is a team game. You can lay some of the blame at Green’s feet, but you have to lay the rest, and by far the bulk, at the feet of the rest of the team, including Bruce Boudreau.
3. Mike Green = Great during the regular season. Awful during the playoffs. He statistically takes more penalty minutes in the playoffs.
If you’re looking for someone to defend his play in recent playoffs, you’re not going to find it from me.
4. As far as Semin – you may be right being that you watch more of the games, however, there were talks about how he wasn’t the answer because of D and not showing up last year.
He pressed too hard in the MTL series, but he was averaging more than six shots a game. He showed up and like I said, if you want to knock Semin’s focus, consistency, or effort level at times, I won’t argue. But he’s a monster on defense.
Finally…you have to look at this collectively. He does more to hurt his team in the playoffs then to help him. Goes from goals and assists to a negative and more penalties. And the reason? He is not good in his own zone./blockquote>
I’m not sure how you came from those premises to that conclusion, but it’s wrong, unless you’re talking strictest possible sense. He’s average away from the puck and stellar with it or moving towards it.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Oct 21, 2010 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Also, if you want to argue that he is better than the players mentioned a few posts up….try to make the point. But if you are going to come on and try to pick everything apart and not give me any reason why he should be listed as let’s say a Top 10 all around d-man or that he even compares to Lidstrom, Doughty, Keith, or Weber…please make a case. I would take a ton of defensemen before Green except in my fantasy leagues.
Weber, Doughty, Keith, Lidstrom, Pronger, Boyle, Chara, Phaneuf, Streit – just to name a few.
"Right now, Pittsburgh is committed to Wilkes-Barre in ways I don't think we've seen before. You see the signings. Everything that can be put into place over the summer has been put into place." - Tom Grace
I’ll start with Boyle. You’ve gotta be freakin’ kidding me. Boyle is Mike Green Lite; I can’t think of a single aspect of play that Dan Boyle does better than Green with the exception of slew-footing Russians.
Chara: If you’re going to count penalties as a negative (and you do above), Green takes about half the number that Chara does, which cancels a lot of Chara’s defensive advantages. It’s not even close in the offensive end and it’s not even close in the transition from the defensive zone to the offensive zone. I’d take Green.
Streit is underrated, but he’s still not as good as Green. He’s a little better in his own zone and while he’s good on the powerplay, he’s not Green; no one is.
Phaneuf?!?! What could possibly lead you to this conclusion? Seriously? What’s the justification? He makes big hits in open ice and takes himself out of position. If you’re going to complain about Green’s defensive deficiencies, Dion Phaneuf is so bad on defense that he made Robyn Regehr look bad in his own end trying to cover for Phaneuf’s adventures.
Keith is pretty clearly the best D in the league right now, you’ll find no argument from me there.
Jury out on Weber; we’ll see how he does this year, but Green’s rate stats have been better throughout their career and Green hasn’t had anyone near Suter’s quality to play with on the backend.
Lidstrom is still the smartest player in the league and unbelievably well positioned. But he’s old. He doesn’t give you the same offense from the back-end that he used to, although it’s still good, he doesn’t have the skating to get to the spots anymore. Green gives you more offense, Lidstrom gives you more defense. In terms of total goal differential, which is what’s really important, it’s about a push.
Pronger was probably the second best D in the league last season after Keith; like Lidstrom, he always seems to be in the right place at the right time. Wicked smart and conserves energy like nobody else. If you’re looking for a guy to drag your team, kicking and screaming, to the Stanley Cup Final, you couldn’t do better than Chris Pronger. For one more year, I’d take him ahead of Green, but that’s a year-to-year thing.
Doughty has all the tools to join Lidstrom and Doug Harvey in the discussion for second-best defender ever. How much he develops and grows from here determines how far he goes. I don’t have a good enough read on where his play is this year to make the choice between he and Green this season.
Your turn.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Oct 21, 2010 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions
We talking in playoffs?
"Right now, Pittsburgh is committed to Wilkes-Barre in ways I don't think we've seen before. You see the signings. Everything that can be put into place over the summer has been put into place." - Tom Grace
We talking reasonable sample sizes? Because the only two you can throw in out of that list are Pronger and LIdstrom, who are first-ballot hall of famers.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Oct 21, 2010 6:26 PM EDT up reply actions
So far you have moved from statistics to psychology back to statistics and then to statistics not having a large enough sample size.
"Right now, Pittsburgh is committed to Wilkes-Barre in ways I don't think we've seen before. You see the signings. Everything that can be put into place over the summer has been put into place." - Tom Grace
Seems to me you just like to argue and try to pick things apart.
"Right now, Pittsburgh is committed to Wilkes-Barre in ways I don't think we've seen before. You see the signings. Everything that can be put into place over the summer has been put into place." - Tom Grace
Still not seeing a refutation.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Oct 21, 2010 6:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Don’t worry, just 26 minutes ’til his game starts ;-)
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by PensAreYourDaddy on Oct 21, 2010 6:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Well when I use stats…the sample size is too smal
"Right now, Pittsburgh is committed to Wilkes-Barre in ways I don't think we've seen before. You see the signings. Everything that can be put into place over the summer has been put into place." - Tom Grace
I don’t understand what that has to do with anything. There’s a lot of noise in small samples. If you’re going to use statistics, you need to at least understand that.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Oct 21, 2010 6:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Fortunately for you my wife is an actuary and I have a finance/economics background. This is not a statistical survey where we need a large sample size. This is a sport where statistics are generated as the season of playoffs go on. Tell me that Mike Green is good in the playoffs. Show me it in numbers or however you want.
"Right now, Pittsburgh is committed to Wilkes-Barre in ways I don't think we've seen before. You see the signings. Everything that can be put into place over the summer has been put into place." - Tom Grace
Tell me he how he has helped his team in the playoffs and not hurt them. Was it not Mike Green who said that he and the team may need a sports psychologist?
"Right now, Pittsburgh is committed to Wilkes-Barre in ways I don't think we've seen before. You see the signings. Everything that can be put into place over the summer has been put into place." - Tom Grace
I deal with numbers and trends everyday. Statistically in the playoffs, Green is trending down. Not up.
"Right now, Pittsburgh is committed to Wilkes-Barre in ways I don't think we've seen before. You see the signings. Everything that can be put into place over the summer has been put into place." - Tom Grace
You have to go back 3 seasons to talk about Mike Green being dominant in a series? Funny how that sample size of 7 games that season is relatively low but you use it to make a point.
"Right now, Pittsburgh is committed to Wilkes-Barre in ways I don't think we've seen before. You see the signings. Everything that can be put into place over the summer has been put into place." - Tom Grace
And so far you’ve done nothing at all to refute any of my points.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Oct 21, 2010 6:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Not interested in getting involved (everyone knows Mike Green sucks ;) lol ) but nice to see someone give Doug Harvey some props. I argue for that guy as #2 all the time…
by LastSonOfKrypton on Oct 21, 2010 6:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Don’t forget about Shea Weber. Very underrated because he plays in Nashville. My first impression of Weber came in the Olympics when his shot went right through the net for a goal. Weber is obviously a good leader. He would not be the captain if he wasn’t. A solid two-way defensemen. A Norris Trophy Canidate in my opinion if he plays well this year. In my opinion along with Ryan Suter one of the best defensive pairings in the league. They are very comparible to the Keith-Seabrook pairing in Chicago. They’re that good. But not many know because they play in Nashville. Which is not a hockey hot bed. True NHL fans know about Weber & Suter. But the occasional fan does not.
Which continues to show the NHL’s horrible advertisement of their league. The NHL only advertises players from 7-8 teams (Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Chicago, Detroit, Washington, Boston, New Jersey & maybe San Jose) in 30 team league.
I’ll be willing to guess that all 30 teams have 3-5 players that are marketable. For instance in Los Angeles Doughty, Brown and Kopitar. In Anaheim Getzlaf, Perry and Ryan.(I did like the NHL Awards show skit Getzlaf & Ryan did. They should do more.) Edmonton has Hall, Paajarvi and Eberle. In Dallas Neal, Richards, Eriksson and Morrow. In St. Louis Erik Johnson, Jack Johnson, Oshie, Backes and now Halak. There is so much especially on the West Coast that even hardcore NHL fans do not know about because they are not shown on t.v. or in advertisments.
While true that the NHL emphasizes certain markets and players, there just isn’t enough time in ads to show guys like Loui Erikson or TJ Oshie. The casual sports fan would forget that in a second.
You have to highlight the recognizable guys (Crosby, Ovechkin, Ryan Miller, Brodeur, etc) that casual sports fans may be fimiliar with. Hockey fans know Jack Johnson isn’t just some dope with a guitar, but 95% of general sports fans probably would not, even if the NHL featured him.
At some point you have to focus on the brightest stars and that’s what they’ve done.
"Game's the same. Just got more fierce."
by Hooks Orpik on Oct 21, 2010 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions
While I do agree. What if the Stanley Cup finals this year is Nashville vs Tampa Bay or Anaheim vs Carolina.(May be impossible but we never know.) Whould anyone besides true hockey fans know any of the players? No. I know the league has to market the stars and they do that well. But if they took the time to market some other great players the league would be better for it. There is more than 5-10 great players in this league.
The problem isn’t that the league doesn’t want to market the other great players in the league, it’s just that they only have the time to market the elite ones.
Honestly, the really casual fans aren’t going to know anybody besides maybe Ovechkin and Crosby, so their marketing strategy actually shows good awareness about who their casual fans are.
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Go get us some pucks, silver.
The Getzlaf and Ryan skit was classic.
by LastSonOfKrypton on Oct 21, 2010 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions
It’s difficult to market a wide variety of players when the NHL only has a very limited time to market itself on basic television (NBC). I don’t like the way they do it either, but I feel like the NHL is dealing with what they’ve got.
If you notice, the teams you listed are legit Cup contenders. Not that Nashville isn’t, but they’re pretty borderline, in my opinion. Again, with the limited time the NHL has, they have to showcase their best (the elite teams).
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If you contend that Nashville is a borderline contender, then I’d say so is Pittsburgh. Look at these numbers:
Team A (2009-10): 47-28-7, 101 points
Team B (09-10): 47-29-6, 100 points
Team A is the Penguins, team B the Predators. This is not a middle of the road hockey club. Overshadowed by Chicago and Detroit, sure, but a formidable squad nonetheless.
by Chris Burton on Oct 21, 2010 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Nashville was 7th in the West with that record, while Pittsburgh was 4th in the East. Better yet, compare Nashville and Pittsburgh places in their respective conference standings for the past 4 seasons.
Bottom line: it’s difficult to be considered a Cup contender when, on average, there are 6 other teams ahead of you in your own conference.
No offense to your club because it’s really anyone’s Cup once you make the post season; being called a “Cup contender” doesn’t mean shit if you don’t do anything that proves it.
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Interestingly, Nashville would’ve won the Northeast Division last year in the East. Surely you recognize the gap in quality between conferences, yes? Nashville gained 100 points playing better opponents than Pittsburgh, who only earned 1 more point.
by Chris Burton on Oct 21, 2010 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Regular season points are entirely irrelevant when discussing whether a team is a cup contender, just look at the Sharks and the Caps. If you wish to form an accurate image based on stats from previous seasons, you need to look at playoff series won and lost.
That said, Nashville is definitely an underdog. If everything is clicking at the right time, their chances of winning the cup is as good as any in the league.
Regular season points are entirely irrelevant when discussing whether a team is a cup contender, just look at the Sharks and the Caps. If you wish to form an accurate image based on stats from previous seasons, you need to look at playoff series won and lost.
Cheap throwaway line and flatly wrong. You know what the teams that knocked off the Sharks and Caps have in common over the last two seasons? A goalie playing out of his goddamn mind. Jonas Hiller had a .940+ save percentage in that series and Halak had a .970+ save percentage over the last three games of the Caps series. Sometimes you simply run into a hot goaltender and get unlucky, even if your team is overwhelmingly talented. I don’t think Crosby changed all that much between the Ottawa and Montreal series, do you?
The Western Conference always has some teams in it that are seeded far lower than they would be in the East because of how much better the West has been over the last decade-plus. Last season, the Sharks beat a very good Red Wings team in 5 games and survived Craig Anderson in the first round. They got some unlucky bounces against the Hawks and ended up losing in a sweep, but those games were extremely tight. Thornton didn’t choke, the Sharks continued to produce, but that Chicago team was historically good, whether people realize it based on standings points or not. Chicago was by far the best team in the league last season; they outshoot their opponents by something like 13 per game. Totally and absolutely ridiculous.
Nashville was a Marian Hossa non-ejection away from taking the Hawks to seven in the opening round. That team was better than you think it was.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Oct 21, 2010 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions
If Hossa gets ejected we win that series in six. I’ll believe that till the day I die.
by Chris Burton on Oct 21, 2010 6:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Let’s assume you are right that the West was stronger last year. That really just bolsters PF8725’s point. If you’re 7th in a stronger conference, you’re much farther from contending for the Cup than a team that is 4th in a weaker conference. Also, I think I saw a graphic last year that showed that no team lower than 9th overall going into the playoffs (out of 16 teams) has even won the Cup, so at 10th last year, it definitely seems fair, maybe even generous, to say Nashville was a borderline Cup contender.
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by PensAreYourDaddy on Oct 21, 2010 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions
If you’re 7th in a stronger conference, you’re much farther from contending for the Cup than a team that is 4th in a weaker conference
Exactly.
Getting past your own conference on the way to the Finals is 3/4ths of the battle.
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Um, if they accumulated the same number of standings points in the tougher conference, they’re nominally better cup contenders than the team from the weaker conference. Just because they’re going to have a tougher draw doesn’t mean they’re a weaker team, it just means they’re not as lucky.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Oct 21, 2010 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Maybe the problem is that you are drawing the conclusion that by saying they are not a strong contender then they must be a weaker team. A lot goes into your chances of winning the Cup and yes, a tougher draw can be one of those factors.
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by PensAreYourDaddy on Oct 21, 2010 5:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Right, but that’s an exogenous factor that Nashville has no control over. If you want absolute chances of winning a Cup, much better to play in the East. If you want best chances on their merits, the team with the same record in a tougher conference is nominally a better contendah’.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Oct 21, 2010 6:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Getting back to what started the discussion (I think….I’m not going to look up there to find out), Nashville went into the playoffs 7th best in the West and 10th best overall. Do you really think there are 10 teams out of 16 each year that should be considered as “strong” contenders to win the Cup? History says otherwise. Do you disagree with the statement that they were borderline contenders? Do you think it would be fair to say that Pittsburgh and Detroit, while only 1 and 2 points better in the regular season, should be considered as stronger contenders than Nashville given that they had a track record of recent playoff success versus no such proof that the Preds could be a championship team?
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by PensAreYourDaddy on Oct 21, 2010 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions
I think the West was historically deep last season, so you could call them a borderline contender. I’m certainly not going any further than that.
That Pittsburgh team was very good, but not as good as the one that won the Cup. Losing Scuderi hurt, Gonchar getting a year older hurt, Geno getting hurt hurt, as it were. Detroit was a better team than its record indicated; they lost a huge number of man games to injury in key positions, then got healthy right as the season ended.
I’m not so much objecting to the idea that Pittsburgh and Detroit aren’t better contenders than to the idea that seeding in the respective conferences is equivalent, or that a one-point standings difference between the ninth-place overall team and the tenth-place overall team means much, especially when the tenth-place team had a tougher schedule. I think in this specific case, Pitt was a better team, but in the general case, it’s not much proof of difference.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Oct 21, 2010 6:21 PM EDT up reply actions
If the West was so deep, wouldn’t there have been more than one first round upset, and even that was only 5 beating 4? I mean, if deep means more good teams, then why were the top teams so dominant?
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by PensAreYourDaddy on Oct 21, 2010 6:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Interestingly, last time I checked, Nashville played in the Western conference. Surely you recognize that getting past your own conference is 3/4ths of the battle in the playoffs, yes? Nashville had 6 other teams in front of them to get by.
Also, you say that Pittsburgh played weaker opponents. Wouldn’t the stronger conference, facing overall tougher competition, have lesser point totals because the teams aren’t easily beat? I really have no idea, and I’m not sure if there’s a way to definitively say that one conference is stronger than the other. All I’m saying is the argument that Nashville is part of a stronger conference can easily be countered.
Like I said in my previous comment, being called a “Cup contender” doesn’t mean shit unless you do something about it. Not very many people would call Nashville a Cup contender because they haven’t shown much to prove it – regular season or playoffs.
Also, this is completely beside my entire point. My original point was that with the limited time the NHL has to promote it’s teams/players on basic TV (NBC), they almost have to take only the elite teams. Nashville was used as an example only because kirblu22 was talking about them.
At no point did I say that they weren’t a good team. I know they’re a great team, but they’re not an elite team.
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Wouldn’t the stronger conference, facing overall tougher competition, have lesser point totals because the teams aren’t easily beat?
No, if one conference is uniformly stronger than the other, or mostly so, then their distribution of intraconference points is going to be roughly similar. The difference is that, in interconference play over the last decade, the West has owned the East in-fee-simple. It’s not even close. The West is simply better right now.
The top teams in the East can play with anyone, but the decline from the top is much, much sharper and the bottom is worse, with the exception of EDM last season.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Oct 21, 2010 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions
The difference is that, in interconference play over the last decade, the West has owned the East in-fee-simple.
Since two season ago, every team in the East played every team in the West at least once. Furthermore, if I’m not mistaken, before the schedule change, not every team in East played every team in the West at least once a season. Even with the new schedule change in place, can you really say that playing a team each team in the opposite conference once a year is an adequate sample size to definitively say that one conference is stronger than the other?
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15 squared is 225 games, or just shy of 3 total seasons. It’s a pretty solid sample size and when it’s repeatable year over year, it’s pretty conclusive. The West is a better conference.
Obviously, this is not to say that Eastern teams can’t win the Cup. This is a Pittsburgh board, afterall.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Oct 21, 2010 5:59 PM EDT up reply actions
when it’s repeatable year over year
Two seasons is enough to say that conclusively?
225 games is only 9% of the NHL season. So, saying that 225 games is enough to determine that one conference is better than the other is like saying that 7 games (9% of an 82 game season) of the regular season is enough to determine which teams are the best in the league.
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550 games over two years is a huge sample. Think of sampling in this way; if you’re making soup, you’re going to taste it with the same spoon if you’re making a liter or a gallon. If the spoon is big enough to get a good taste, it doesn’t matter how much of total population it is.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Oct 21, 2010 6:23 PM EDT up reply actions
550 games over two years is a huge sample.
If you want to say that it’s a huge sample, then my comment below definitely proves that that neither conference is stronger than the other.
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I don’t think I agree, but I have to run out the door; I’ll try to address this more fully tomorrow.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Oct 21, 2010 6:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Ok ok, so now a “huge” sample size is not enough to make you agree that neither conference is stronger than the other?
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FYI here’s the East’s record against the West since the schedule change was adopted.
08-09: 129-113-28
09-10: 115-118-37
That’s not exactly dominance by either conference.
If the small sample size doesn’t prove that you can’t really say which conference is stronger than the other, then the records between them the past two years definitely puts the nail in the coffin.
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Don’t throw statistics out there – first math person not to like them.
"Right now, Pittsburgh is committed to Wilkes-Barre in ways I don't think we've seen before. You see the signings. Everything that can be put into place over the summer has been put into place." - Tom Grace
I think I’m missing something because that statement made no sense to me.
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different discussion from posts above
"Right now, Pittsburgh is committed to Wilkes-Barre in ways I don't think we've seen before. You see the signings. Everything that can be put into place over the summer has been put into place." - Tom Grace
So are you going to argue against my points or are you going to take petulant potshots?
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Oct 21, 2010 6:29 PM EDT up reply actions
The 09-10 numbers are certainly more one-sided, given that the West’s record would be at least 152-118 (not sure how many were OT losses). Even still, I have trouble with the argument that strength of conference can be applied when comparing individual teams.
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by PensAreYourDaddy on Oct 21, 2010 6:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Still, that record is not nearly enough to say that the West is better than the East. None of the records are. You need to play many more games against each other to definitively say that.
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No, that just makes it less conclusive. The West’s point percentage in the aggregate puts them squarely in the playoffs in the East and that includes the bottom feeders like CBJ and EDM.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Oct 21, 2010 6:32 PM EDT up reply actions
How’d you come to that conclusion?
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I have to run, but I’ll get back to this tomorrow.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Oct 21, 2010 6:36 PM EDT up reply actions
And to add to that, the point totals are all relative to each conference.
What was a 4th place finish in the East was a 7th place finish in the West. The point here is that, since no one can really prove that one conference is stronger than the other, you have to look at things relatively if you want to make a comparison.
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This is not a middle of the road hockey club. Overshadowed by Chicago and Detroit, sure, but a formidable squad nonetheless.
The original point is why weren’t they on NBC a lot. And that’s because the market it small, not many people know or really care about the Predators. (Which is a shame, but just the way it is).
Also, Team A finished 5th in the league in goals for last year…Team B, 18th.
Small hockey market, in the south, not exciting offense. That’s three strikes for national exposure.
"Game's the same. Just got more fierce."
Is Weber hurt at all? I thought I read somwhere or maybe I heard it during their (Nashville) game against Calgary tuesday night. Anyone know if he’s 100% or what?
This Nashville team is very talented. Yet nobody talks about them. They have Sullivan, Legwand, Goc, Hornqvist, Erat, Dumont, Tootoo, Wilson, Lombardi(finally showed his potential), Weber, Suter, Klein, O’Brien(good pick up from Vancouver recently and Rinne is a very good goalie.
Nobody talks about them because it is a very small hockey market. But they do have great talent and are fun to watch. I believe it was Erat who hurt us last year. They played very tough in the playoffs last year.
The next two games are going to be a good test. Both teams are in the top 5 in goals against and they don’t take a lot of penalties. These will be games where a net presence is going to be a huge key. We need screens and cheap goals. If Pens go up by 2 against either team, it will be interesting due to the Blues and Predators low scoring nature.
"Right now, Pittsburgh is committed to Wilkes-Barre in ways I don't think we've seen before. You see the signings. Everything that can be put into place over the summer has been put into place." - Tom Grace
so…on a far less decisive note (maybe), do any of y’all know of any articles or books that discuss government funding of sports stadiums? i have to write a ten page paper on it and y’all are far smarter than i am. thanks in advance.
TANGRADI FOR CALDER.
http://www.cppa.utah.edu/publications/finance_tax/Sports_Stadiums.pdf
Googled your topic and that’s the first thing that came up. Obviously, you’re going to need more than that, but it’s a start.
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all I can say is wow.
"Right now, Pittsburgh is committed to Wilkes-Barre in ways I don't think we've seen before. You see the signings. Everything that can be put into place over the summer has been put into place." - Tom Grace
to previous conversations
"Right now, Pittsburgh is committed to Wilkes-Barre in ways I don't think we've seen before. You see the signings. Everything that can be put into place over the summer has been put into place." - Tom Grace
To mine?
Because yours was much more…hostile.
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Nash says Malkin's fist has "big taste."
thanks! i could have sworn i’d seen articles on here recently about it, but i could be wrong/crazy. it’s been a long day.
TANGRADI FOR CALDER.
by katielynn906 on Oct 21, 2010 6:49 PM EDT up reply actions
people who argue just to argue and throw credentials around…lucky I have an extra hour to kill before games
"Right now, Pittsburgh is committed to Wilkes-Barre in ways I don't think we've seen before. You see the signings. Everything that can be put into place over the summer has been put into place." - Tom Grace
I agree that him mentioning the degree in math came off as pompous, whether or not intended, was not a nice thing to say. However, Knee High usually makes pretty good arguments. I think in this particular one, he’s trying to get you to realize that Green is a better player than we all give him credit for, which is probably true. However, in order to do that, he has to nitpick because you weren’t even really talking his play in the regular season. And that’s why it gets so frustrating.
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By the way, if you want comprehensive stats, this is the link to go to:
http://www.behindthenet.ca/
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not going to have my time wasted again.
"Right now, Pittsburgh is committed to Wilkes-Barre in ways I don't think we've seen before. You see the signings. Everything that can be put into place over the summer has been put into place." - Tom Grace
Knee High loves a good debate.
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by PensAreYourDaddy on Oct 21, 2010 6:52 PM EDT up reply actions
He and I should just follow each other around and discuss.
I think we’d have a lot of interesting stuff for y’all to read.
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I probably could do the same..you said you would see how I do during the course of the year since joining. Should be interesting….
"Right now, Pittsburgh is committed to Wilkes-Barre in ways I don't think we've seen before. You see the signings. Everything that can be put into place over the summer has been put into place." - Tom Grace
What are you talking about?
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I said to Frank D…
Just Wait…For how much I talk it up….you’re going to wish that the email stayed there.
And you said…
All long as you don’t talk out of your ass, I don’t think there will be any problems. ;]
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by PensFan8725 on Oct 18, 2010 6:17 PM EDT up reply acti
"Right now, Pittsburgh is committed to Wilkes-Barre in ways I don't think we've seen before. You see the signings. Everything that can be put into place over the summer has been put into place." - Tom Grace
Oh lol…I forgot about that.
If you notice, the guy who was responding to you was a Caps fan, so I think we Pens fans can live with you haha. Their heads don’t explode reading what I write!
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thanks for the link btw
"Right now, Pittsburgh is committed to Wilkes-Barre in ways I don't think we've seen before. You see the signings. Everything that can be put into place over the summer has been put into place." - Tom Grace
Your welcome. It’s a great site, but I get confused by it easily. If I took the time to read how they come up with the stats, I would have a better time with it though.
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