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Stats show the studs and who's better off on the bench

Watch enough games and you might lose the forest through being amongst all the trees.  Using behindthenet's advanced statistics, let's dig into some deep stats and see who's measuring up and bearing a lot of weight, and who's just a passenger, relying on teammates to pick up the slack.  For you non stat-heads, don't worry, we'll explain it every step of the way.

Star-divide

(All looks are at a minimum of 10 games played)

Gf_on_60_medium

(What this means: If Sidney Crosby spent 60 minutes on the ice and play remained 5 on 5 at all times, the Penguins would score 4.01 goals.  based off of how many goals he scores relative to the time he spends on the ice.)

This shows what many believe: the Pens need better scoring wingers.  Pascal Dupuis, Chris Kunitz and Ruslan Fedotenko are usual Top 6 wingers, but they're among the bottom of this metric.  Unsuprisingly, Crosby and Evgeni Malkin are the team leaders.

Ga_on_60_medium  

(What this means: If Ben Lovejoy spent 60 minutes on the ice and play remained 5 on 5 at all times, the opponents would score 0.73 goals against the Penguins.  This is based off of how many goals he scores relative to the time he spends on the ice.)

Impressively, all the Penguin defensemen are under 3 goals a game.  Sergei Gonchar brings up the rear, but he also draws the most difficult assignments, which explains it, also why Malkin and Crosby are at the bottom for the whole team...For all the crap Eric Godard takes, at least goals don't go in against him much on the few moments he spends out there...Also interesting, and probably expected that the usual 3rd line of Jordan Staal, Tyler Kennedy and Matt Cooke all are towards the top of the heap.

Gf_off_60_medium 

(What this means: Not good to be near the top, it's the the number of goals scored per game for every 60 minutes the player is sitting on the bench, assuming all 60 minutes are played at 5 on 5.  For instance, if Eric Godard is glued to the bench for the full 60 minutes -- big stretch, huh? -- the Pens would score 3.29 goals in that game)

Guys who are frequently benched, like Godard and Martin Skoula, lead the way in this metric.  Somewhat surprisingly, the team has seemed to put the puck in the net at even strength when Gonchar isn't out there, and to no one's surprise a lot of offense is generated with Adams and Max Talbot on the bench.

 

 Ga_off_60_medium

(What this means: This is an area you want to be around the top, it means that if Matt Cooke sat on the bench for a ful 60 minutes of 5 on 5 play, the Pens would give up 2.76 goals, while if Bill Guerin rode the pine the whole hypothetical game, the Pens would only yield 2.49 goals)

This stat, perhaps more than any other may be skewed by ice-time.  Would the Pens really be better served if Skoula played a whole game and Gonchar sat the bench the whole time?  No, but it does indicate that goals go in more when Skoula is on the bench, compared to when Gonchar is.  This can obviously be explained by the level of competition and time spent on the ice, but I think it's no coincidence many of the Pens best defensive forwards (Cooke, Staal, Maxime Talbot) are towards the top of the heap.

Differences 

 Difference_ga_gf_medium

(What this means: The graph on the left is the difference of the first two charts, basically showing that the Penguins score 1.06 more goals a game while Tyler Kennedy was out on the ice, compared to when he was benched. The chart on the right here shows the difference of the third and fourth, with the best metrics coming towards the bottom in terms of being off the ice.)

Ben Lovejoy has scored high on about every metric, but he's only played 12 games and has only played 16:37 a night, so he's skewed but he has played well.  Cooke and Staal also look in a good light by this measure while Gonchar and Fedotenko don't.

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i love stats and advanced metrics. I’ve watched most of the Penguins games this year and it surprises me that Gonchar rates so poorly and doesn’t surprise me that Skoula and Adams rate poorly as well. Maybe renewing Gonchar for a couple years would be a bad idea. I think the reverend will be a fine 2nd pairing defenceman next year if he doesn’t get moved for Ray Whitney or another rental.

by AronV on Feb 3, 2010 2:14 PM EST reply actions  

Gonchar (and Crosby and Malkin) all score poorly in some areas too because of how much they play and who they play against…Teams give up goals and it’s a team sport so I don’t know how much you coups blame an individual player…

But then again the numbers don’t lie.

Pensburgh.com

"I'm glad I got drafted first, because no one remembers number two." -- Alexandre Daigle

by Hooks Orpik on Feb 3, 2010 2:24 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

No matter how you slice it

Great analysis, more significant than the +/- . However no matter how you slice it you end up with Adams and Skoula showing what anyone who watches the games and knows hockey already know. They are of no use, at least with the Pens Jersey. Everytime I post this somebody tells me , yeah, but Adams kills penalties, I say who cares , if he was so good at it he’ll be in the top Pk uni. His stats show that he is no good which corroborates what is seen on the ice. I’ll say, good bye to this 2 bring up some guys from the baby Pens (Lovejoy and Letescu) come to mind and we’ll all be better off. Great job Hooks.

by Outcast on Feb 3, 2010 2:36 PM EST reply actions  

I get what you’re saying, and I agree…to an extent. I think that Adams is exactly what he is…meaning a 4th line center. He isn’t particularly skilled, but we’ve got him for a cheap price at $0.55m (only $50,000 more than Letestu). He’s on the 2nd PK because we need to give Crosby time to rest, and it also seems like Coach Bylsma likes to throw out a counter punch after a PK with Crosby and/or Malkin.

I don’t discredit what you’re saying, Adams is not a very skilled player, and I wouldn’t mind trading him to make room for another DD-man and bringing up Lets…I just can’t fault him more than I fault Godard right now…

"Government is not reason, it is not eloquence, it is force; like fire, a troublesome servant and a fearful master. Never for a moment should it be left to irresponsible action." - George Washington

by Hockey Beard in SLC on Feb 3, 2010 2:42 PM EST up reply actions  

Can we please stop talking about the Pens shopping for a D-man? It’s not likely to happen, their need is at wing. The D play very well together when they’re all at full health, so the Olympic break should help for that. Also, I wouldn’t want to lose any of our top 6 or see any of them benched.

by ipenguin67 on Feb 3, 2010 7:18 PM EST up reply actions  

I think depth on Defense is a legit concern. And whose to say that the olympics won’t end up being bad for us on the injury front…it’s not like we have no one playing.

We have the ability to score, the void at winger isn’t as critical as fleshing out our defensive roster.

"Government is not reason, it is not eloquence, it is force; like fire, a troublesome servant and a fearful master. Never for a moment should it be left to irresponsible action." - George Washington

by Hockey Beard in SLC on Feb 3, 2010 8:55 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

If someone manages to shut down Sid or Geno, or one or both have a slump, we’re screwed. The D is more than adequate when healthy, just look at the praise they were getting before the injury plague happened in late October?

by ipenguin67 on Feb 3, 2010 9:19 PM EST up reply actions  

But that is my point, the injury bug hit the forwards too, but the scoring didn’t dip as much as the GA spiked (minus the odd NJ game or two…ech).

When that injury bug hit, we saw that our weakness wasn’t scoring, it was depth at Defensemen. We need a solid 7th D-man who can step in and play square, not mess up and cost goals like Skoula has been seeming to. The best scenario would be to get a top 4 physical, shut down D man to augment Letang or Gogo (like Orpik pairs with Gonch), this way we can shuffle down the pairings and have McKee as our 7th. He isn’t going to be around much longer, and so then we can use Lovejoy or Engelland (haven’t seen his play this year, but I believe I’ve heard good things).

But ultimately it doesn’t matter what you or I think, it only matters what Mr. Shero and Coach Bylsma think their needs are.

"Government is not reason, it is not eloquence, it is force; like fire, a troublesome servant and a fearful master. Never for a moment should it be left to irresponsible action." - George Washington

by Hockey Beard in SLC on Feb 3, 2010 9:38 PM EST up reply actions  

Adams is a right handed face-off guy. The guy that Zigomanis was supposed to be last year. The 4th line center isn’t going to be racking up points, plus he’s cheap for the job he does do. The only reason he’s not on the top pk unit is Staal and Talbot.

by Max Powers on Feb 3, 2010 2:43 PM EST up reply actions  

His faceoffs stats are horrible,Cheap means just that, cvheap, no skills wahtsoever to be in the linup. A call up in case of emergency, yes. Letescu would play, just as “cheap”, but with more desire and skills.

by Outcast on Feb 3, 2010 2:46 PM EST up reply actions  

Agreed. Only question would be would Lets be as consistent (meaning not making bad plays, rookie mistakes, etc.)

"Government is not reason, it is not eloquence, it is force; like fire, a troublesome servant and a fearful master. Never for a moment should it be left to irresponsible action." - George Washington

by Hockey Beard in SLC on Feb 3, 2010 2:51 PM EST up reply actions  

As much time as Adams spends on the ice he would be making I say less mistakes. I’ve seen Adams, give away pucks galore lately. He wasn’t doing that last year, but he seems to be losing the battle for the puck against the boards pretty consistently. Remember we are talking aboout a guy with limited ice time. Which actually would somewhat detrimental to Letescu.

by Outcast on Feb 3, 2010 2:59 PM EST up reply actions  

So, to summarize, we need to call up Ben Lovejoy?

Great stats, by the way, mostly what I would expect but it’s nice to see it all laid out in black and white. Good food for thought.

by OlenWhitaker on Feb 3, 2010 10:35 PM EST reply actions  

heh I think his limited action may have an affect on that, but how much of one I can’t really say…

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by FrankD on Feb 3, 2010 10:51 PM EST up reply actions  

What about Witt?

I posted this in another thread, but I don’t know if anyone saw it (or maybe they just didn’t care.)

Brendan Witt was placed on waivers by the Islanders. He’s big, he’s physical, he’s tough, though his plus/minus is god awful, I thin he would be better than Skoula. What do you guys think? I don’t know too much else about him though. Oh, he’s around 3 mill which might be a problem though.

A bee in a bird's nest never made no honey, and a bird in a hive sang no song.

by AlexStitch on Feb 4, 2010 12:58 AM EST reply actions  

If picked up off waivers, we assume his contract, correct? There is a reason he was put on waivers and cleared.

by Ulf Murphy on Feb 4, 2010 10:32 AM EST up reply actions  

Witt has a cap hit of $3 million next season…And he’s not exactly at his peak.

He’s not worth it.

Pensburgh.com

"I'm glad I got drafted first, because no one remembers number two." -- Alexandre Daigle

by Hooks Orpik on Feb 4, 2010 11:08 PM EST up reply actions  

wow, Hooks, I knew I can count on you for advanced stats analysis! Thanks!

Lovejoy’s ice time is limited, but still these are pretty impressive numbers. I’d much rather have him around rather than Skoula.

Malkin’s line has been quite bad on defense and I think it shows also in the numbers.

You have to see it for yourself...

by Bla Razor on Feb 4, 2010 1:04 AM EST reply actions  

Maybe that is the reason Coach moved Staal up into the center of his line…ease the defensive responsibility on Geno, and add a banger of a two-way player.

"Government is not reason, it is not eloquence, it is force; like fire, a troublesome servant and a fearful master. Never for a moment should it be left to irresponsible action." - George Washington

by Hockey Beard in SLC on Feb 4, 2010 1:17 AM EST up reply actions  

Thanks for the nice words, Bla, glad you enjoyed.

Pensburgh.com

"I'm glad I got drafted first, because no one remembers number two." -- Alexandre Daigle

by Hooks Orpik on Feb 4, 2010 11:10 PM EST up reply actions  

By the way....

when did 16:37 minutes become “only” as in, Lovejoy “has only played 16:37 a night.” I understand the small sample size of 12 games, but 16:37 with no power play minutes is a full load.

by David Todd on Feb 6, 2010 12:20 PM EST reply actions  

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