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Past 3 games a preview of a Gonchar-less Penguins team?


Sergei Gonchar, resident #1 defenseman on the Pittsburgh Penguins for the five years he's been here, has missed the last three games due to an illness. He's expected to be back soon - probably by Wednesday - but his absence has given the Penguins a sneak peak of what life without Gonch would be like.

Sans Sarge, a lot is going to fall to young defensemen Kris Letang and Alex Goligoski. And that hasn't disappointed yet. Let's look at some particulars over these past three games. It's a very small sample size, but some trends are beginning to emerge.

Star-divide

In the last three games...

  • 2-0-1 --the team's record
  • 15.4% --power play rate (2 for 13)
  • 25:12 -- average ice-time per game for Letang (season average is 21:30)
  • 23:34 -- average ice-time per game for Goligoski (season average is 21:27)
  • 16 -- Letang's shots on goal (5.33 a game)...2.44 is his season average per game
  • 6 -- Goligoski's SOG (2 per game)...1.38 is his season average per game
  • +1 -- combined plus/minus of the two players in this stretch
  • 0 -- points the two players have combined for

So Goligoski and Letang are getting a lot more playing time, and combined they're throwing a lot more rubber to the net than they have been this season.  But they haven't produced any points, and Gonchar's scored an average of .798 points/game during his stint as a Pittsburgh Penguin.  The young players are going to have to get on the scoreboard, but for now they're doing quite well at filling the gaps and keeping the momentum going.

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I don’t mind that they’re not scoring. Defensemen can make a key pass in their own zone that sets up a goal, but they miss out on the assist. Same goes with the power play.

I’ve been very vocal that I don’t think the Pens should re-sign Gonchar at more than 2 years, and now I don’t know if I even want him for that. He’s aging fast, his contract will be on the books regardless if he retires, and he’s lost a step or two (or three).

I’d much rather see Leopold return than Gonchar.

by RCheli on Mar 29, 2010 12:18 PM EDT reply actions  

Goligoski’s shoot/pass ratio is questionable. Sometimes it seems like he’s finding new ways not to shoot the puck.

Other than that, I agree, they’ve done well. The Pens have struggled to bring the puck up the ice on the PP, but when Malkin’s back, he can and will go back to doing it.

I think Gonchar really wants 3-4 more years and Pittsburgh just can’t fit him in if that’s a sticking point.

Pensburgh.com

Wayne Gretzky had it wrong: 100% of the shots Gary Roberts doesn't take DO go in.

by Hooks Orpik on Mar 29, 2010 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think 2 year deal would be ideal since it’ll count as an over 35 contract. And for me I think the reason i’d like him to stay is mainly to keep Malkin happy. I think at the end of the day a 2 year deal for $10 mil should get it done. If it keeps our Russian superstar happy, then I think that’s a major consideration.

by AronV on Mar 29, 2010 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

Malkin’s 24 — he doesn’t need to be appeased any more, especially when it’ll cost the team $5M/year and a nice scoring winger.

by RCheli on Mar 29, 2010 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

Sarge is not THAT old

Draper 38
Lidstrom 39
Holmstrom 37
Maltby 37
Rafalski 36

by CGNC on Mar 29, 2010 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

A lot of those guys are the exceptions to the rule and most of them are even in full and obvious decline.

Rafalski’s still playing well and Lidstrom’s still among the best, but down off of his peak.

Gotta be careful in tying up money in older players, especially ones with Gonchar’s injury history

Pensburgh.com

Wayne Gretzky had it wrong: 100% of the shots Gary Roberts doesn't take DO go in.

by Hooks Orpik on Mar 29, 2010 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree on the tying up money part especially if injuries are a problem. No doubt you can rebound from an injury better at 25 than 35.

by CGNC on Mar 29, 2010 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

Gonch's Contract Negotiations

Agree with Hooks — that list of players 36+ doesn’t inspire one to believe that Gonchar can re-gain his form. There is NO WAY that GMRS gives him a multi-year deal at $5M per year. NO. WAY. Too risky w/ the CBA provision for players >35.

by Diomedes7 on Mar 30, 2010 12:08 AM EDT up reply actions  

Gonchar's #s this year

Games missed: 18
+/- : -7
Goals: 10

Not worth $5M — even w/o the age/CBA risk.
Not. Even. Close.

by Diomedes7 on Mar 30, 2010 12:10 AM EDT up reply actions  

He’s going to be 36 in 2 weeks. I just don’t see his game staying at his current level (as much as it has regressed this year) for another 2 seasons, and when you think of the money he’s going to be asking for, it’s nuts.

The Pens are strapped as it is with upcoming free agents/raises to restricted free agents/high salaries for their big 4, I don’t want them to do anything stupid.

by RCheli on Mar 29, 2010 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think the Pens can survive without Gonchar. Gogo and Letang will have another year of experience and from the beginning of the season they will take on Gonchs responsibilities. Lets not forget that this is Gogo’s first full year in the NHL. It seems like he has been around for a long time, but I would have to think the 82 games season in the NHL is a lot more of a grind than at the AHL. Gonchars biggest asset is his PP abilities, but to be honest the PP has under achieved for the last couple seasons. With Crosby and Malkin even without Gonchar I still like the Pens chances on the PP. Maybe those two can develop into better PP players. Lets be honest thats just about the only place those two could possibly improve. I just dont think the Pens can afford to keep Gonchars 5 million cap hit around for 3 more years. I think the Pens could resign Leopold for half the money and have him fill a similar role if needed. I dont see the Pens, nor do I want them too, give Gonch a Pronger type deal. Its time to move on give then reigns to the young guys and move on. I think letting Gonch walk a season too early with hurt a lot less than a season or two too late.

by genomachine-O on Mar 29, 2010 12:22 PM EDT reply actions  

How far away is Carl Sneep from playing in the NHL?

by RCheli on Mar 29, 2010 12:36 PM EDT reply actions  

Gotta be a ways away. Most NCAA defensemen need at least 1 full year at the AHL level getting used to the speed of the game, playing 82 games, etc before they’re close to jumping to the NHL.

Pensburgh.com

Wayne Gretzky had it wrong: 100% of the shots Gary Roberts doesn't take DO go in.

by Hooks Orpik on Mar 29, 2010 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

From what I’ve seen, Brian Strait may be ready for the NHL next season. I know Sneep and Strait fill different roles but I think they may use Leopold in Gonchars old roles and bring up Strait as a shutdown d-man.

by stoopidtom on Mar 29, 2010 2:39 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Granted I havent seen much of Strait this season, but Lovejoy seems to be the next one to make the jump permanantly. I’m sure Strait will see some time with the big club next year, but I dont think the Pens break camp with 2 rookies in the top 6

by genomachine-O on Mar 29, 2010 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree Strait is next in the pipeline and is almost ready. Lovejoy is ahead in his development but has limited potential… Strait, I think, will be playing Mark Eaton-like minutes in 2 years

You have to see it for yourself...

by Bla Razor on Mar 29, 2010 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

I am not sold on Gogo. Kreeees (as Poni says) on the other hand is stepping up and enjoying his extra minutes

by CGNC on Mar 29, 2010 12:50 PM EDT reply actions  

While his offense has been in decline all year. He has really stepped up his defensive game which is really the priority anyways.

by PensFan024 on Mar 29, 2010 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

absolutely… he’s really stepped-up with more physical play and cut down on the number of turnover he used to make

You have to see it for yourself...

by Bla Razor on Mar 29, 2010 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

as much as Letang’s offense has disappointed me, I must also agree to the improvement on his defensive side

Follow the Penguins on SBN @ Pensburgh.com and twitter.

by FrankD on Mar 29, 2010 9:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

I’ve always felt that defense is the most important part of a defenseman’s game. If given the choice between a Scott Niedermayer or a Mike Green, to me there really isn’t any choice at all. A Niedermayer-esque defenseman can bring the offense without the defensive liability of a player like Green.

by kellyn on Mar 30, 2010 1:17 AM EDT up reply actions  

Hook we gonna see a Winter Classic post. Its a done deal here Pens vs. Caps at Heinz Field.

by genomachine-O on Mar 29, 2010 1:13 PM EDT reply actions  

link or it didn’t happen?

by katielynn906 on Mar 29, 2010 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

looks to me like there is still no official word yet. They are still the “leading candidate”

by xaryss on Mar 29, 2010 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, it’s not 100% official, but it seems a matter of time.

The NHL usually doesn’t announce this event for sure until more a of a summer month anyways, so we won’t have official word to comment on anyways, just more reports and rumors that don’t get us anywhere.

If you want to put a fanpost up about the latest rumor or your thoughts, go ahead and if it’s good enough and could generate a new discussion I’ll promote it to the front-page, but I really don’t have any new ideas to talk about the subject than what’s previously been up here.

Pensburgh.com

Wayne Gretzky had it wrong: 100% of the shots Gary Roberts doesn't take DO go in.

by Hooks Orpik on Mar 29, 2010 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

Let the haters get ready to hate if this is a done deal.

Sample: “Penguins outdoors twice over the span of four seasons? LOLZ Bettman <3’s Crosby”

Follow the Penguins on SBN @ Pensburgh.com and twitter.

by FrankD on Mar 29, 2010 9:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

You give the haters far too much credit, Frank. Their comments won’t be nearly as intelligent as your sample, and will most likely have a complete and utter disregard for proper grammar and spelling. Ah, the butchery of the English language….

by kellyn on Mar 30, 2010 1:26 AM EDT up reply actions  

There will be a ton of people mad about it. The fact is the Pens and Caps gets higher ratings in the US than any other game. Lets not kid ourselves either thats all the winter classic is about, tv ratings in the US.

by genomachine-O on Mar 30, 2010 7:31 AM EDT up reply actions  

This Season
PP with Gonch: 57 Games, 43/217, 19.8%
PP w/o Gonch: 17 Games, 7/79, 8.9%

Last Season
PP with Gonch: 25 games, 22/110, 20.0%
PP w/o Gonch: 57 Games, 40/250, 16.0%

by et_pitt on Mar 29, 2010 1:19 PM EDT reply actions  

wow

very telling stats

www.californiagoldenblogs.com

by CBKWit on Mar 29, 2010 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

That is a great stat, but how many of the games this season are without Malkin AND Gonchar?

Without either one, the Pens lose their puck mover to get the puck into the offensive zone and set up.

Pensburgh.com

Wayne Gretzky had it wrong: 100% of the shots Gary Roberts doesn't take DO go in.

by Hooks Orpik on Mar 29, 2010 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

I thought the power play looked better without Malkin. No more confusion in the right circle.

by PensFan024 on Mar 29, 2010 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

In a way, Malkin and Crosby are both best used in the same spot, so I can buy that. Plus with Malkin out, Crosby’s the “chief” and the rest are “indians”, whereas with more “chiefs” it can be a little more difficult.

But I think they definitely miss their Russian leader to gain entry to the zone and get things setup. Goligoski has struggled there a couple of times.

Pensburgh.com

Wayne Gretzky had it wrong: 100% of the shots Gary Roberts doesn't take DO go in.

by Hooks Orpik on Mar 29, 2010 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think Geno is better on the halfboards than Crosby is. Sids played there the last week or so without Geno and the PP hasnt been impressive. I understand that its been without Geno, but Genos one timer from that spot seems to be the only “set play” that the Pens have. I think Crosby is better down low, working in the corners and sliding out from when a rebound is available. Now they both probably prefer to play that spot, I just think Geno is much better there.

by genomachine-O on Mar 29, 2010 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree with genomachine. Sid is perhaps the most dangerous scorer in the league down low, whereas he is often too predictable when playing the halfboards.

by PensAreYourDaddy on Mar 30, 2010 12:30 AM EDT up reply actions  

Good point. I think he and Gaborik are probably the best guys close to the net, at least from what I’ve seen. I wouldn’t mind seeing him play closer to the net, though that could limit his passing a bit.

by packallday555 on Mar 30, 2010 1:25 AM EDT up reply actions  

That’s a good point, but another of Sid’s amazing abilities is making the “impossible” pass in close quarters (see the assist on Guerin’s goal against the Caps). Not only is he great at deflections and knocking in rebounds, but he can corral those loose rebounds / bounces off the back boards / blocked shots, and make the awesome pass to the open guy.

Yes, at the halfboards he can make the pinpoint cross-ice pass, but all too often the guy on the receiving end is not ready fast enough to do anything with it and the goalie gets time to react.

by PensAreYourDaddy on Mar 30, 2010 3:56 AM EDT up reply actions  

no Gonchar, with Malkin: 9 games, 5/40, 12.5%
no Gonchar, no Malkin: 8 games, 2/39, 5.1%

I usually don’t like stats that look at a team’s performance with and without a player because there’s so many other factors involved and sometimes the sample sizes aren’t very big. That said, it’s clear the Gonchar is incredibly important to the power play and if we lose him, we need either Gogo or Letang to step up big time or find someone else to run the power play.

by et_pitt on Mar 29, 2010 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

Last season, Gonchar came back right when a lot of other things changed for the better (deadline deals, Bylsma getting hired, renewed motivation and energy all around) so to me the difference is pretty small — 4% — considering that some of the change likely comes from other factors. I’m actually surprised that the difference is as small as it is, and my interpretation is that last year Gonchar didn’t make as big of a difference as we thought in terms of power play success.

This year, however, the power play has been horrible and when they are so lost to begin with, it makes a bigger difference to have Gonchar. But, the power play problems they had this year are simply unacceptable. They need a better strategy with or without Gonchar. Fixing the powerplay overall will result in a higher success rate without him (and with him, too).

by Cari on Mar 29, 2010 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

4% is a pretty big difference, over the course of a season it comes out to about 15 extra goals. Obviously not all of that difference can be attributed to Gonchar for the reasons you mention, but Gonchar definitely helped the power play quite a bit.

I’m not sure the Pens should resign Gonchar because he is getting up in the years and he might be overpriced. But it should be noted that with Gonchar in the lineup over the past 3 years the Pens PP has clicked at ~20% all 3 seasons, and if they don’t resign him the PP is likely to suffer unless Letang or Gogo improves greatly.

by et_pitt on Mar 29, 2010 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

If it were not for the amount of money he is rumored to be asking I would say keep him. However, I would rather them keep some young talent rather than spending too much for Gonchar.

by xaryss on Mar 29, 2010 1:31 PM EDT reply actions  

Stats for three games don't mean much

I am shocked by these comments. First, stats for only three games are ridiculous; the stats for the Penguins the last two seasons with and without Gonchar are night and day. Second, Gonchar runs the offense. For Malkin and Crosby to score, they need the outlet passes and the timing Gonchar delivers. No way that Letang is in the same league as Gonchar (yet), and Goligoski, are you kidding? If the Pens lose Gonchar, then they will need a top notch defenseman to replace him, and there aren’t many that can, and they won’t come cheap.

The Pens aren’t blowing out opponents this year like last year at this time, and the key reason is the loss of Scuderi and Gill, both of whom are very good defensemen. Without them, the Pens aren’t the same team. Without them, and Gonchar, the Pens will be a marginal playoff team until they repair the defense. Although Letang is top notch,and will get better, the rest of the defensemen the Pens have are below the league average player skill level for this position. And not one of these defensemen are anywhere near Gonchar’s scoring ability from the point.

For the Pens to compete for the Stanley Cup, they need their three centers, Fleury, Letang, and Gonchar. The rest of the players can be swapped as needed, but these guys are the franchise right now. Losing Gonchar will be a serious blow to the Pens ability to stay at the top of the hunt.

by zinfan94 on Mar 29, 2010 2:04 PM EDT reply actions  

I completely disagree with that. In my opinion the Pens best defenseman consistently game in game out has been Brooks Orpik. To say he is a below average defenseman is ridiculous. If you want to throw Eaton, McKee and maybe Leopold in that category thats fine. Although I would argue that Leopold is a above average.
I dont think you can really judge the stats with and w/o Gonchar because it was never just him they were missing at the time. Earlier this year the Pens were missing 3 or 4 other defenseman at the time Gonch was out. The previous year they were missing Whitney too, and Gogo had virtually no NHL experience.
Defenseman dont always develop as quickly as forwards do, Letang and Gogo would have all next season to develop into Gonchars role. Yes when Gonchar is at the top of his game, there arent many who can replace him. Theres no doubting that Gogo and Letang both have the talent to do so.
As far as this years playoffs, yes Scuderi is a big loss to the Pens, but look at the other D-cores is the east. Who has a better top 6? The Flyers maybe, if they even make it. NJ…no way…WASH..I dont think so.
As long as the Pens have Malkin, Crosby and Fleury they will be more than a marginal playoff team.

by genomachine-O on Mar 29, 2010 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

Losing Gonchar after this year will be a blow, but not to the extent you think. His numbers this year — both the standard goals and assists and also the advanced metrics — show that he’s a player going downhill. He’s not the player he was 5 years ago or even last year. 5-5 he’s not even close to being the Pen’s best defenseman (in fact, he’s the worst on the team), and shorthanded he’s struggling mightily.

(And Scuderi and Gill aren’t having great years either.)

Call me crazy, but if I had the choice between 3 years of Gonchar at $4.5 million and 3 years of Leopold at $2.5, I take Leopold in a heartbeat.

by RCheli on Mar 29, 2010 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

Call me crazy, but if I had the choice between 3 years of Gonchar at $4.5 million and 3 years of Leopold at $2.5, I take Leopold in a heartbeat.

I agree, because if Gonchar is signed for that kind of money, Letang is a gonzer. There’s simply not enough room for everyone to get a piece of the pie.

I’d give the money to the young guy and not the injury-riddled 36 year old.

Nothing against Gonchar, he’s a piller of the team and very important, but if he prices himself out with a contract too rich or too long, Shero can’t (and won’t) make the decision of giving it to him.

It’d suck to lose Gonchar, it’d suck more to be locked into a long, bad deal with #55.

Pensburgh.com

Wayne Gretzky had it wrong: 100% of the shots Gary Roberts doesn't take DO go in.

by Hooks Orpik on Mar 29, 2010 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

Agreed too that goes back to my point earlier I’d rather let Gonch go a year too soon than 2 or 3 years too late. He’s not going to be around forever, eventually the Pens will have to replace him. They have a pretty good chance of either Letang and or Gogo developing into that role. The Pens cant afford any bad contracts.

by genomachine-O on Mar 29, 2010 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

4.5 Mill for Sarge?!?… with all my sympathy for him I wouldn’t pay him more than 3 Mill for 2 years

You have to see it for yourself...

by Bla Razor on Mar 29, 2010 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

Right, but that’s what he wants — and someone may give it to him.

The dollars may be less demanding than the years, though.

by RCheli on Mar 29, 2010 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

yes, yes… someone definitely will… but I doubt (and hope not) it’ll be RS

You have to see it for yourself...

by Bla Razor on Mar 29, 2010 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

Shero has proven loyalty to the younger guys in terms of locking guys up in any kind of a deal. I don’t think he’d take a ridiculous deal (or request) like that and give it to Gonchar over the option to dish Letang or Leopold a lil more money to keep them around. As disappointed as I am in Letang’s play this season, I think he can be talked down from his request of $4 mill per…

Follow the Penguins on SBN @ Pensburgh.com and twitter.

by FrankD on Mar 29, 2010 9:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

Leopold at 2.5

would be great. Then you can take care of Letang and, depending on next year’s cap figure and other roster moves, you might be able to take a shot at Hamhuis. He would help offset the clear hole left by the departure of Scuderi. It would take some things falling almost magically together to make that happen. Not the least of which would be Hamhuis taking an Orpikesque deal.

"Never mistake motion for action." - Ernest Hemingway

by SubLime on Mar 29, 2010 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yes to all this, and Goligoski is atrocious(spelling?).

by JasonGoPens on Mar 29, 2010 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

Really? You couldn’t be more wrong.

by RCheli on Mar 29, 2010 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

I consistently say, damnit man what are you doing, when watching him. I know he’s young and i’m hoping that he improves but i don’t care for him much.

by JasonGoPens on Mar 29, 2010 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

There’s a lot of truth in what you’re saying, but it’d be a cap suicide to sign Gonchar 3-4 years at $5 million or so a year, especially when there’s only 2 defensemen signed for next year and guys like Letang, Leopold and Eaton need re-signed.

Welcome around though, good to hear your thoughts and it is well thought out.

Pensburgh.com

Wayne Gretzky had it wrong: 100% of the shots Gary Roberts doesn't take DO go in.

by Hooks Orpik on Mar 29, 2010 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

Injury clock needs reset for Malkin/Gonch

by BDON911 on Mar 29, 2010 3:31 PM EDT reply actions  

It does. I’ll remind Frank. Now that people aren’t seemingly dropping by the day maybe we could take it down altogether.

Pensburgh.com

Wayne Gretzky had it wrong: 100% of the shots Gary Roberts doesn't take DO go in.

by Hooks Orpik on Mar 29, 2010 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

sadly it’s kinda hard to keep up with at this point. It has been removed.

Follow the Penguins on SBN @ Pensburgh.com and twitter.

by FrankD on Mar 29, 2010 9:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

This is kind of a reply to a bunch of comments, so I’ll just post it as a new thread…

I think everyone knows that without Gonch they have trouble entering the zone, and they move around a lot less when he’s not there to direct traffic. With some work, Letang and Goligoski will improve on this. But in other news, on Sunday I noticed that their passing was almost always through the guy up top. They did a lot of standing still, and they would pass from down low on one side, to the top (where Gonch often is), and then down low on the other side. If you watch what a team like Washington (ugh!) does, they have lots of quick passes, east to west. Then, while the goalie is falling all over himself trying to keep up, someone unleashes a wrister (through traffic) and scores — or generates a quality rebound opportunity. Maybe there’s a lesson in there somewhere?

by PopRocks on Mar 29, 2010 3:41 PM EDT reply actions  

I have always thought that we don’t do enough down low/behind the net on the PP. With our quality guys able to control the puck (i.e. Crosby, Malkin, Staal) we should be able to turn the D around and force them to cover the slot while facing the net.

Just my $0.02…

Pensburgh.com
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an ACME anvil, then expanded – accordion-style – back to full stature, without
any lasting side effect.
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by Hockey Beard in SLC on Mar 29, 2010 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yes! And when it’s going well they sort of close in on the net and force everyone into a condensed area. Then someone passes the puck out to Gonchar, and he shoots through traffic (that is otherwise occupied). Or Crosby/Malkin puts a great shot in from the side of the net. Or …

by PopRocks on Mar 29, 2010 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

Remember what Geno said

when he accepted his Dapper Dan award. Gonchar has made a big impact on his transition to the NHL and his comfort level. Bringing back Gonchar might not be an issue of points and production. I’m guessing Geno will be vocal about wanting him back. Probably a good move for another 2 years or so.

by SteelersPensPirates on Mar 29, 2010 4:26 PM EDT reply actions  

Gonchar was valuable when Geno could barely communicate with everyone, but he’s friendly with a lot of guys who’ve been on the team a while (Talbot, Orpik, etc) and has more friends than just one.

It’d be nice to keep someone around that spoke Malkin’s language, but that should be a very, very small factor. It’s not good business sense to think otherwise.

Pensburgh.com

Wayne Gretzky had it wrong: 100% of the shots Gary Roberts doesn't take DO go in.

by Hooks Orpik on Mar 29, 2010 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don’t disagree with you. And I’d rather be able to re-sign Letang and possibly Leopold than focusing too much on Gonchar. So it becomes a matter of price – are we going to find a comparable player at a price lower than what we would pay Sarge? I think the front office will do a good job of evaluating that and making the call. I would say that Gochar’s relationship with Malkin shouldn’t be discounted, though. Geno is still a kid, and there’s a reason Sid still lives in Mario’s basement. There is something to be said about familiarity and continuity. Obviously not at the cost of doing what’s best for the team, but definitely a consideration.

by SteelersPensPirates on Mar 29, 2010 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

Shots on goal is a better predictor of future scoring success than past scoring success is. I’ll take Letang’s increased shot total as an indication of what’s to come any day.

by JustinM on Mar 29, 2010 4:31 PM EDT reply actions  

No question, Letang’s been snake bit this year, and he’s gonna start putting the puck in the net. Hopefully sooner than later. He’s still only 22, and the Pens have to re-sign him. He does need to improve his play on the PP, though, especially if Gonchar is going to be gone next year.

by et_pitt on Mar 29, 2010 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

DO NOT SIGN GONCHAR

There well be other younger/cheaper pucking moving defensemen available on the market. If i were the Pens i would let Letang go too, to me he is just not worth what would be at least 3mil/yr. Also off the books i believe is Feds, Billy G. Cooke and Talbot im not sure about but we should lets Feds and Geurin go, i would like to keep Cooke and Talbot and i think the pens will have enough money to get a good winger in FA.

by C Shint on Mar 29, 2010 5:02 PM EDT reply actions  

Talbot’s locked up for another year, I think (after which he’s a restricted free agent, not unrestricted). And this season so far is not a great one to judge him on, given his injury trouble.

I disagree with your Letang assessment, though, and I wonder if he will be willing to take a bit of a hometown discount. We’ll see. And performance during the playoffs will also have a lot to say about what sorts of contracts are available, and what sort of money the Pens are willing to offer.

by PopRocks on Mar 29, 2010 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

i believe

i read somewhere before he rejected some type of deal for like 2.5-3mil/yr. i think he wants 3.5/4 mil/yr. i would never want to pay letang that kind of money.

by C Shint on Mar 29, 2010 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

Don’t believe everything that’s out there. The Pens haven’t made any firm offers to Letang. They’re waiting on Gonchar as priority #1, and even that’s not on the front burner right now

Pensburgh.com

Wayne Gretzky had it wrong: 100% of the shots Gary Roberts doesn't take DO go in.

by Hooks Orpik on Mar 29, 2010 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

I’d definitely vote for Legame over gogo, but i am obviously in the minority here and that’s ok. I just like what i see out of Letang more than gogo. Cooke is iffy, he is a pest and you need someone like that on your team, but that pest has to know the line he is riding and sometimes Cooke crosses it like with Savard, if Boston were Philly we may have seen Crosby go down that game, if Disco can get him under control he would be an asset but he also may be a liability.

by JasonGoPens on Mar 30, 2010 1:57 AM EDT up reply actions  

main players we need back gonchar and malkin we need both for playoffs so we can repeat yea back to back back to back

by pensfan87 on Mar 29, 2010 6:16 PM EDT reply actions  

No matter what...

Next year’s roster is going to be noticeably different. This year’s team is is largely the same as the group the hoisted Lord Stanley last year, minus “The Piece” and Hall Gill. This year’s team is certainly one of 5 or 6 teams that should be considered the favorites. Next year will be different.

I can see a situation where Tenks, Guerin, Gonchar, McKee, Johnson (goalie), and maybe in even Cooke and Eaton will not be here. I see the Pens signing Poni, Leopold, and Letang with the money saved by not resigning the before mentioned. What does that mean though?

Kunitz – Crosby – ?
Dupuis – Malkin – Poni
Cooke – Staal – Kennedy
Rupp – Talbot – Adams/Godard

Connor, Letestu, Wallace, Nick Johnson, and maybe Tangredi (if ready) ready in WBS
Do you move Staal to wing?

Orpik – Letang
Leopold – Gogo
Lovejoy – Eaton and a UFA for the 6-7 D-man role

Sneep and Stait in the system but no “real” 7th defenseman ready to play yet.

Life is about one simple choice, get busy living or get busy dying

by Dr Tre on Mar 29, 2010 8:32 PM EDT reply actions  

I think that’s as good of an outlook as you could make right now…Who knows if Poni, Cooke and Leopold will/can be brought back, but it doesn’t look that out of sorts.

Ideally a guy like Johnson could be able to jump, but making the turn to a full time top 6 winger in the NHL would be tough. Tangradi shouldn’t be rushed, if he’s good enough he’s ready (which could be possible) but when you look at guys like Armstrong, Orpik, Whitney, Letang, Kennedy and Goligoski, there’s been tons of young players good enough to make the NHL out of strong training camps that end up in the minors for a little longer.

And the Pens have shown they’ll err on the side of giving it a little more time….When you get to Pittsburgh to stay, you have to be able to slide into a winning NHL roster. There can be no time to get saturated or have rookie mistakes cost the team games. Franchises at the level Pittsburgh’s at have to be very careful on the reload

Pensburgh.com

Wayne Gretzky had it wrong: 100% of the shots Gary Roberts doesn't take DO go in.

by Hooks Orpik on Mar 29, 2010 10:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think u could move Staal to wing because, correct me if I’m wrong, he’s not that great on
faceoffs and he could be a strong power forward next to sid or geno. If that doesn’t happen, I think the Pens should make a run at Andrew Ladd in the offseason. He will be an RFA and with the cleared up cap space I could see the pens making a run at him. He makes 1.55 mill this year but I could see the pens giving him a deal in the neighborhood of 2.5
Here’s how I see next years lines:

Kunitz-Crosby-Ladd
Dups-Geno-Poni
Cooke-Staal-TK
Rupp-Talbot-Adams

Orpik-Tanger
Leo-Goose
Lovejoy-Eaton

Fleury
Curry

I could see Nick Johnson, Simon Depres, Brian Strait, Dustin Jeffrey, or Tangradi making it. A lot depends on training camp

by stoopidtom on Mar 29, 2010 10:52 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

I see what your saying, but what happens if Tenk shows up in the playoffs again? I understand that’s a roster spot for 82 games sucked up for the playoffs but he is known to perform in the playoffs and did last year quite well. I’d love to see Poni signed and see what happens when he has a season getting some chemistry going, maybe he can shake that not showing up for spans of game thing, i think playing with Malkin can shake that. Lovejoy, i’ve been wondering why he isn’t up here yet, i really like what i saw in the games he did get called up for, we can drop Eaton for him, and maybe change his last name…but that’s another story.

by JasonGoPens on Mar 30, 2010 1:52 AM EDT up reply actions  

Tenks has looked good playing with Sid, perhaps we have him with the wrong guy? Also, Staal looked great that rookie year playing with Malkin. I know Staal is the quintessential 3rd center, but do you sacrifice a scoring line for a checking line, especially with Adams and Talbot on the team, two guys that could take the 3rd line over?

Life is about one simple choice, get busy living or get busy dying

by Dr Tre on Mar 30, 2010 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions  

I know Staal is the quintessential 3rd center, but do you sacrifice a scoring line for a checking line

In this case, I would say yes. I have heard too much anecdotal evidence about how feared Jordan Staal is by other teams due to his shutdown role on that 3rd line. I think you lose more than you gain by moving him to a wing.

by PensAreYourDaddy on Mar 30, 2010 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions  

Line Combos - Next Year's Roster

Agree w/ most of what’s been written above.
Gone: Gonchar, Guerin, Tenk, and McKee.

They won’t sign a new Top 6 FA winger. Rather, I think Shero continues in his practice of starting the season down a wing and adding one at the deadline — it gives playing time to younger guys, some Top 6 time to guys like Talbot, Rupp, Kennedy, most importantly, it saves $ under the cap.

Here’s how I see the lines out of camp…
This assumes they can/will re-sign Poni, Cooke, Letang, Leopold, and Eaton
(if the cap doesn’t change they’ll have about $16M for these 5 players, so its possible):

Kunitz-Crosby-Dupuis
Poni-Geno-Talbot
Cooke-Staal-Kennedy
Rupp-Adams-Godard

Orpik-Letang
Leopold-Goligoski
Eaton-Lovejoy

Fleury-Johnson — I’d like to see Johnny back, and I dont’ think he’ll get starter offers.

by Diomedes7 on Mar 30, 2010 12:34 AM EDT reply actions  

I’m really looking forward to Geno getting back so that we can see if he and Poni can make some magic. It would be nice to see (and it will also be interesting to see exactly how the lines settle down for the playoffs).

As for Talbot: I’m not convinced that he’s top-six material at any time other than during the playoffs and other higher intensity games.

Also: just wondering if anyone has any thoughts about Engelland. He played alright when he was called up, but I don’t have a sense of whether he might become a regular NHL-er.

by PopRocks on Mar 30, 2010 1:01 AM EDT up reply actions  

Pop — I agree. Talbot isn’t Top 6, but the Pens will be 1 Top 6 forward “short” again coming out of camp.

by Diomedes7 on Mar 30, 2010 2:58 AM EDT up reply actions  

I dont know how you break up Poni-Crosby-Dupuis at this point though. I think the “magic” has already been found with that line there. .

by genomachine-O on Mar 30, 2010 7:42 AM EDT up reply actions  

Now that i look at the UFA list for next year if we drop sarge i see two dmen we should pick up. Seidenberg was at 2.25 mil last year and Volchenkov was at 3.2 mil, without gonchars 5.5 mil those two come in 50k less, now thats not much, but two guys, both 27, who would be leaving boston and ottowa may wanna play with Crosby and Malkin and sniff another cup. Just an idea, not that i’m Shero or anything, but they are UFA’s.

by JasonGoPens on Mar 30, 2010 1:42 AM EDT reply actions  

Jason - there is no money. $16M to sign Poni, Cooke, Letang, Leopold, and Eaton is stretching it already.
If you want to sign one of those guys as FA you have to drop one of those 5
-if you drop a D, it’ll prob have to be Letang, b/c I think both Volchenkov and Seindenberg will require more $ than Eaton or Leopold.

by Diomedes7 on Mar 30, 2010 3:01 AM EDT up reply actions  

Ya as soon as i hit post on that i realized that we too will have free agents we have to resign, i guess that would be some wishful thinking in a perfect world. But i don’t think letang is gonna command, or let me rephrase, i don’t think we will give him as much as he thinks he’s worth. It’s just not the Pittsburgh way, which i think stems from the Steelers not paying people.

by JasonGoPens on Mar 30, 2010 5:02 AM EDT up reply actions  

I <3 Letang…he’s got great hair…much like me!

"Let the Rabbits wear glasses"

by tehchico on Mar 30, 2010 1:55 PM EDT reply actions  

Hair is the reason to keep guys…

Trade Goligoski!

Pensburgh.com

Wayne Gretzky had it wrong: 100% of the shots Gary Roberts doesn't take DO go in.

by Hooks Orpik on Mar 30, 2010 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

Hair and the accent. Letang is perhaps my favourite French-Canadian to listen to. Aside from Fleury, maybe — but that’s just because Fleury almost always looks & sounds like he’s about to burst out laughing.

Regardless, it all adds up to what you said. No hair + no accent = trade

by PopRocks on Mar 30, 2010 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

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