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2009 vs. 2010 on paper. Can the Pens do it again?

Totally stealing this from our buddy The Peerless Prognosticator, but how does this incarnation of the Pittsburgh Penguins compare to the unit that won the Stanley Cup last season?  Let's break it down line by line:

1stline_medium

The first line is the same in terms of personnel, but the players are no doubt different.  Sidney Crosby has already set a personal high in goals scored and Chris Kunitz and Bill Guerin are two-time Cup winners that are capable of opening up holes, creating turnovers off the forecheck and both under-rated in dishing pucks off.  All in all, it's largely the same, but if nothing else that they're more comfortable with each other makes the 2010 version more in sync than the 2009 unit.  Guerin might be in his twilight, but he's capable of rising to the situation.  As a Penguin, when healthy (as he is now) Kunitz has been a very productive point producer.  Add those two to the best player in hockey and you've got yourself a dangerous line.

2ndline_medium  

Call this the wildcard.  With Pascal Dupuis playing very well, and Maxime Talbot trying to get back on track, there's no guarantee that Ruslan Fedotenko will hold on to this prize position on the second line.  Feds might just have 25 points so far this season playing with Malkin, but he's been skating with a purpose lately.  Add fellow Ukrainian and trading deadline addition of Alexei Ponikarovsky and Rusty might be back on track.  How Ponikarovsky fits in might be the whole key to the 2010 playoff run -- he has the size (6'4, 225) and the previous NHL experience (63 points in the 2006-07 season) to be a difference maker.  Will Poni fit in with Geno?  Will it work well?  That's the million dollar question, but Ponikarovsky could be the key addition to fuel Malkin and Fedotenko to another long run.

3rdline_medium 

Widely recognized as one of (if not THE) best third lines in the league, the 'Sesame Street Line' will be back in tact.  Matt Cooke adds some grit on the forecheck, Jordan Staal seems to get better and more forceful with every shift, and a hard-worker like Tyler Kennedy is hardly an anchor here.  These guys can grind and show hesitiation in getting the puck to the net when they have the chance.  Few 3rd lines in the league have the skill, work ethic and intensity to match them, and being together for another season should make them more of a force in 2010 than they were in 2009.

4thline_medium 

As last year, the Penguins will have some flexibility.  Often times, Crosby or Malkin will double shift with 2 players to try and catch the opponents weaker players off the ice.  Craig Adams is the team's only right-handed faceoff man, he may very well dress.  Michael Rupp has a career high 12 goals this season, Pascal Dupuis has 14 goals this season and Maxime Talbot's post-season performance needs no introduction.  The moves the Pens have made has increased their depth this season and even the 4th liners can be viable contributors now.

And for the defense...

1std_medium 

In an effort for more balance, the Pens have put Mark Eaton up with Sergei Gonchar.  Can Eaton stay healthy and play positionally well enough to help Gonchar out?  Gonchar will still skate about 25 minutes a night no matter what the situation, and this pair will usually play with the Crosby line, so moving the puck smartly up to the forwards to skate it through the zone will be their challenge.

2ndd_medium 

Last season the "shutdown" unit of Hal Gill and Rob Scuderi did some work against Jeff Carter, Alex Ovechkin (kind of), Eric Staal and Henrik Zetterberg, limiting all of those stars at even strength.  This season the Pens have switched it up, giving Brooks Orpik and Kris Letang that duty.  Brooksy and Tang are both better skaters and a little more physical, but it's been tough to replace the positional awareness of the guys that did the job last year.  Once they get the puck -- if they get the puck -- it should be a better opportunity for the Pens to transition and transition quickly.

3rdd_medium 

Veteran Jay McKee is waiting in the wings, but for now the two former Minnesota Golden Gophers make up the third pair.  Alex Goligoski has largely struggled in the second half of the season, and Jordan Leopold is a new face to the team, so it remains to be seen how he'll fit in.  But both are great skaters, can move the puck and are better positionally in their own zone than others may think.  Plus when they get the puck, there's no doubt about their abiliy to move it out of the zone and hopefully create chances in transition.

Goalie_medium 

It's kind of amazing that a guy who's won 30 games in the past two seasons might come in under the radar, but somehow Marc-Andre Fleury is flying low.  Despite stopping Nicklas Lidstrom in Game 7 to win the Stanley Cup, despite stopping Alex Ovechkin on a breakaway early in Game 7 of the Eastern semi-finals, and robbing several Flyers and Hurricanes along the way, Marc-Andre 3000 isn't getting much respect or recognition around the league.  And that's fine.  Because no other starting goalie in the NHL has won more playoff games in the past 2 years, and no other netminder quite rises to the occasion like Fleury does.  Martin Brodeur and Ryan Miller will be threats to be reckoned with, but stack their post-lockout resume against MAF and they'll come up short.

--

The 5 big questions:

  • How does Ponikarovsky mesh with Malkin in a high intensity atmosphere?
  • The shutdown unit of Gill-Scuderi has been replaced basically by better puck-moving (but lesser all-around defensive players) in Goligoski-Lepold.  Can Letang and Orpik pick it up and limit the chances of the best offensive players?
  • Will Fleury, who's been shaky lately, regain his clutch and shut the door?
  • What about the Superstar Maxime Talbot, who's had a rough, injury ridden season?  Will he get back in the groove and score some timely goals?
  • Has the core of the team, who are the 2 time defending Eastern Conference champions, have enough gas in the tank to come out fired up and defend their championship?

If most (or all) those questions end up in a positive way, plus the needed health and lucky bounces -- the Pittsburgh Penguins will be on their way to another long and fruitful playoff run.  After reaching the summit in 2009, obviously nothing will be a success unless they do it again.  With Sid, Geno, Gronk and Flower, you can never say never....But it's going to take a team effort to help those guys to get back to where we all want to go.

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Looks to me like the important thing is whether Gonchar can keep it up. Young players like Crosby, Malkin, Fleury, etc, shouldn’t really feel the effects of two long postseasons + Olympics, I wouldn’t think, but Gonchar is important to Pittsburgh’s attack and defense and is seeming to lose steam a little as he gets older.
Then again, without him, Pittsburgh beat Washington, so maybe it’s not too big of a deal.

Ovechkin = Green Backs

by red army line on Mar 6, 2010 6:31 AM EST reply actions  

I agree. As Gonchar goes so does the Penguins. A strong spring from him, along with the rest of the D and Fleury, and the Penguins playoff run will once again last until June.

by Francis10#1 on Mar 6, 2010 8:37 AM EST up reply actions  

Gonchar will be fine. The questionable area is the blue line. Gill and Scuderi last year were very effective during the playoffs. Staal is improved this year. Leopold is definitely an upgrade, it will be interesting to see how he and Ponikarovsky will fit in. I like our chances. Washington added some bodies at the deadline, still questions have in the net.

by Randy F on Mar 6, 2010 8:37 AM EST reply actions  

Looking at the forward lines I think we’ve upgraded. Of course Ponikarovsky is somewhat of a question mark, but nothing to be too concerned about.

I also thing the Dmen are not a weaker group compared to last year. Nevertheless they need to find the pair that can work as a shutdown one and I hope HCDB can work this out until the end of the regular season

You have to see it for yourself...

by Bla Razor on Mar 6, 2010 8:38 AM EST reply actions  

typo… think

You have to see it for yourself...

by Bla Razor on Mar 6, 2010 8:39 AM EST up reply actions  

No doubt in my mind that the Pens can do it again. The 2010 team is comparable to the 2009 team.

The real question to me is whether or not the Caps, Hawks, and Sharks (some would put the Devils and/or Flyers in this group, but I do not agree) have improved enough to overcome the Pens. Those three teams made significant upgrades in the offseason and at the trading deadline and may have jumped past the Penquins.

by Moonage Daydream on Mar 6, 2010 9:05 AM EST reply actions  

I’m watching the Hawks (like a hawk! lololol). Huet isn’t really all that terrible, and the Hawks blueline is good enough that he can get away with being below average on some nights.

We all know about the Sharks playoff troubles. . .

The Caps are the wildcard I think. They can absolutely outscore anybody they want to, but how well will that translate in the playoffs? We shall see. The Caps are good, but the division they’re playing in has definitely inflated their record, me thinks.

The Devils will be as good as Broduer is. And the Flyers? Ehhhh, no.

Avalanche fan stuck in Penguin territory.

by Richard R on Mar 6, 2010 10:05 AM EST up reply actions  

To me, the Capitals are the only real threat standing between us and the Cup Finals. Sure, the Flyers or Devils or even Sabers could turn on the afterburners towards the end of the season and put up a strong fight, but the only team that really has all the pieces to go all the way, besides us of course, is the Capitals. And I tend to worry that we’re not quite good enough defensively to stop them this time around…

by Hatt the Moople on Mar 6, 2010 10:36 AM EST up reply actions  

Yeah, it has a little. From my view, Pittsburgh is the toughest team in the East outside of DC (can’t compare the two until they play). I really want to see how Leopold plays. Scuderi it seemed blocked half of Ovechkin’s shots last year in the playoffs (and he still scored what, 8 goals? Go figure). McKee I guess was supposed to replace him, but hasn’t been able too. Without that I’m not sure if PIT has enough, because then they’d need a fantastic series from their entire lineup just to compete. Every team that bottles up Ovechkin gets 5-10 blocked shots a night from their “shutdown pairing.”
As a Caps fan though, I’d rather have PIT lose early this season. Don’t think I can deal with another heartbreak ;)
Do you think the Russian factor will come into play between Malkin, Poni, and Fedetenko? (I know technically Poni is Ukranian, but I’d think he speaks Russian). Semin was definitely more comfortable with Federov, and Ovechkin with those two made a great WC line, for what that’s worth, and Afinigenov has had an under-the-radar resurgence playing with Kovalchuk (though no longer).

Ovechkin = Green Backs

by red army line on Mar 6, 2010 1:20 PM EST up reply actions  

Every team that makes the post season is a threat. This is one of the things that makes hockey stand out. You hardly see this in the Big 3 but then again, no one else plays for Lord Stanley. I can see the Pens losing just as easy to Washington as say, Boston or hell even Atlanta. They have the mark on their backs and what a confidence boost it is taking down the reigning champs (hell we’re talking 2 years reigning in the East).

Everything sucks about Philadelphia.

by lolredwings on Mar 7, 2010 12:11 AM EST up reply actions  

the 3 plusses:
1. Crosby ’10 is better than ’09 — better faceoffs, more goals, still the slick skating & passing, and even better defensive committment
2. Depth — better depth all around can allow the Pens to keep the Crosby-Kunitz-Guerin and Staal-Cooke-Kennedy line together without having to surround Geno with 4th liners.
3. Experience — just like being in the playoffs in ’07 allowed them to understand what they needed, then pushing the Finals to 6 games after dropping the first 2 gave them confidence the next year. Winning it all means last year means the team knows what to expect.

3 minusses-
1. Lack of pure D in the D. Better skill and skating than what we had with Scuds or Gill, but this pair came up huge to stop the other teams’ best lines.
2. Better competition — in ‘08 no one was in our league. In ’09 clearly the Flyers, Devils and Caps were on our level with the Flyers and Caps series going close to the limit (given that Philly spotted us 2 games).
3. One headed monster — Sid has been the Man this year. A lot of other players have been doing well (Staal is always consistent, Dupuis is a suprise), but Malkin was a beast in the regular season and post-season. If teams key in on Crosby again, we’ll need a team effort to get goals if Malkin can’t carry the offense again.

by biedergb on Mar 6, 2010 3:54 PM EST reply actions  

Regarding MAF

I heard Bob Grove and the old 29er on the postgame show today. I’m sure this comparison has been made before, but they were talking about Fleury being very much like Tom Barrasso, and I think that fits. Marc-Andre will most likely never be in the top 5 in save pct, shutouts or goals against, but the fact is he has established himself as a money goaltender. The bigger the game, the better he is. He will be the man this year just as he has been the last two.

by PensAreYourDaddy on Mar 7, 2010 12:58 AM EST reply actions  

Cool write-up

I still think our defense is a little suspect. Hopefully that’s not our downfall this year.

by BDON911 on Mar 7, 2010 3:50 AM EST reply actions  

CAPS

I think the real question is how much have the Caps improved, especially with the additions at the trade deadline. I think they are a much better overall team than the one that took the Pens to 7 games last year. However, I think the problem with the Caps this year is goaltending. The reason they were so good last year in the playoffs last year was the outstanding play of the youngester Varlamov. He’s coming off an injury, so who are the Caps going to ride into the playoffs, Theodore or Varlamov? Stanley Cups are won with solid goaltending, but the Caps have enough firepower to compensate. The Pens have a better team overall as well and should go deep into the playoffs. Reminds me of the 93 Pens though, never can be too overconfident in the playoffs, anythiing can happen.

by 87 owns 8 on Mar 8, 2010 8:44 AM EST reply actions  

Very interesting. Looks like there has been an upgrade in nearly every area, except the shutdown-style defensive pairing.

Widely recognized as one of (if not THE) best third lines in the league, the ‘Sesame Street Line’ will be back in tact.

Yes, very good third line… with a terrible nickname. Where did it come from? Its not just because of Cooke is it?

"NZFlyerfan"

by ToddtheFox on Mar 8, 2010 8:55 PM EST reply actions  

I think this years team is better than last years team. Better forwards and a year more expirienced. Scuderi and Gill are losses, but they are both replaceable. Hopefully the Pens can finish on top of the ATL division and get home ice. Having home ice will allow Bylsma to match Staal up a little more easily against top lines. There isnt a player in the league I’d trust more in a defensive role than Staalsy. He can take a little pressure off the defense. From what we saw last year and this year Bylsma likes matching Crosby against Ovie and just hoping Sid outscores him really. That will be tough but given past big game experiences Ill take Sid in that match. I think the Pens have as good of a chance as ever to do it again. The eastern conference doesnt seem as strong 1-8 this year. I like their chances.

by genomachine-O on Mar 9, 2010 12:31 PM EST reply actions  

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