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Heading into the playoffs, compared to last year

Since today is Capitals day, and we all are expecting to see them again when the games count, a scholar and gentleman showed how the Caps are different from this season to last season.

Game7_medium 

The Caps have a couple of obvious improvements to their personnel from when the Pens whooped them last May, notably Mike Knuble in for Viktor Kozlov and additions of Eric Belanger and Jason Chimera up front.  The defense has been tweaked too, with the addition of Joe Corvo, the presumptive health of guys like Mike Green and Jeff Schultz and the emergence of youngster (and American hero) John Carlson.

A lot of the Caps roles are the same: Alex Ovechkin, Alex Semin, Nicklas Backstrom, Eric Fehr, Tomas Fleischmann and Brooks Laich are all a year older, experienced, better and the ones counted on to carry the offensive load.

Now the natural question, how are the Pittsburgh Penguins are going to look compared to the version last season that played until there was no one left to beat.  Here's a guess on it from the Pittsburgh perspective:

Pens2010playoffs_medium 

--The obvious subtractions is the "shutdown" defensive pairing of Hal Gill and Rob Scuderi, both of whom of course skated away to sizeable paydays in other markets.  To counter this, the Penguins have shifted roles amongst their defensemen: Mark Eaton bumps up to play with Sergei Gonchar, and Brooks Orpik has paired with Kris Letang to form something of the new age "shutdown" pairing.

--The Penguins may have different roles, but their top 6 defensemen --assuming continued health -- is arguably deeper and better positioned with the skating and puck-moving ability that Alex Goligoski and newcomer Jordan Leopold bring to the table.  While as Gill could barely keep up with the world class skaters he faced, and Scuderi was limited in puck movement, the Pens have upgraded both of those pure capabilities.

--Offensively roles have changed too: Ruslan Fedotenko and Max Talbot have been bumped down from their places last season, with newcomer Alexei Ponikarovsky and Pascal Dupuis appearing to have taken their spots as Top 6 forwards.  Fedotenko and Talbot (regular wingers with Evgeni Malkin last post-season) did put up a combined 15 goals and 12 assists last second season, serious production that will need to be replaced.

--Two of last season's acquistions, Bill Guerin and Chris Kunitz, also find themselves in flux.  Kunitz is now injured (severity unknown) and has been absent for much of the season.  Guerin has lost his place on the top line with Sidney Crosby, but still figures to factor in heavily on a 2nd line and on the power-play.  How both can bounce back this playoffs will probably go a long ways in determining the Penguins fate.

The Penguins strength, as it was last season -- and will be for many years to come, is of course through the middle.  Sidney Crosby led all players in goals last post-season and is currently the league leader in goals.  Evgeni Malkin's had his most trying season, but he showed great jump since returning from his foot injury.  Quietly Jordan Staal anchors a tremendous 3rd line and continues to pitch in and be a force in all three zones.

One thing curiously left off Peerless's chart was the most important position in hockey, that of the goaltender.  Washington figures to switch gears and let vet Jose Theodore (impressively unbeaten in regulation in the year of 2010) take the reigns for the playoffs.  He was also the Game 1 playoff starter last season and got a quick hook after one bad outing.  Clearly a lot of circumstances are different one year later, and though Theodore is playing well, he has the playoff stigma of never getting out of the second round on his back.

Marc-Andre Fleury, while never having sterling success against the Capitals, still has 30 playoff victories under his belt in the last 24 months.  He's made huge saves when it's counted (like stopping AO on the famous Game 7 breakaway) and he also held the high-power Caps to 3 or fewer goals in 5 of the 7 games last spring, giving his team a chance to compete.

 

On paper alone, Caps 2010 seem to be more balanced and more prepared for the playoffs than they did a season earlier.  But the Pens are also returning 16 of the 19 most important players of their Stanley Cup championship run and are also young, talented and ready for the challenge.  No matter how it turns out, it's sure to be edge of your seat gripping playoff drama.  Assuming, as almost everyone believes and that all signs are pointing to, that these two teams end up meeting in the 2nd or 3rd round of the upcoming Stanley Cup playoffs.

As Apollo Creed said (and commenter Ulf Murphy recently quoted)....."Ding, ding."

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Comments

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I for one can’t wait for a Pens vs Caps series. Still not sold on your defense, especially in your own zone. You’ve got 3 stud centers that can mask a lot problems though.

"You ever use smelling salts, every time you type a bad blog?" Brooks Laich

by Carl Putnam on Apr 6, 2010 12:16 PM EDT reply actions  

It’s gonna be a shootout, and will be fun to watch. But for us it’s all gonna depend on this imaginary lightswitch that everyone keeps talking about. Can it be turned on for game 1 of round 1, and will people like Fedotenko start playing like they are fabled to in the playoffs.

by JasonGoPens on Apr 6, 2010 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

It’s definitely a question mark, but last year it was too because of injuries to Gonchar and Letang…Gill was considered way too slow and Scuderi not good enough all-around.

I guess there will always be questions about something, but I agree the spotlight is on them.

Pensburgh.com

"Don't matter who did what to who at this point. Fact is, we went to war and there ain't no turnin' back. I mean, s---, it's what war is, you know? Once you in it, you in it. If it's a lie, then we fight on that lie. But we gotta fight."

by Hooks Orpik on Apr 6, 2010 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, I recall last year a number of analysts thought that the Pens wouldn’t do much in the playoffs due to their “below-average” defense. Then come June, of course, everyone was raving about how good it was. Let’s hope for a repeat of that this year.

by monge15 on Apr 6, 2010 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

I’ve always thought of ANALysts the same way i think of anal, it’s where shit comes from. Analysts on tv just dish out shit on who’s hot and who everyone is the popular vote to win.

by JasonGoPens on Apr 6, 2010 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Same could be said for the Caps this year.

"You ever use smelling salts, every time you type a bad blog?" Brooks Laich

by Carl Putnam on Apr 6, 2010 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

It’ll be interesting, very interesting, if these two teams meet in the playoffs again. They match up with strength-on-weakness very nicely, and they both play an entertaining style.

The Pens were flat out better in last year’s meeting. This year, I think it’s a lot closer, and comes down to breaks and bounces. Or at least I hope so, anyway.

"You want to start being part of the Rink? Fine, but more’s expected of you than John/Jane Cap Fan. Carry the cause of informed discussion to the unwashed masses and don’t crap in the yards of other SBN sites if you decide to go over there. They’re passionate about their teams too, no need to troll elsewhere and/or be a sore winner." --BP

by fat_daddyo on Apr 6, 2010 12:32 PM EDT reply actions  

Well, the Pens aren’t good on the PP and the Caps aren’t good on the PK (and vice versa). The Pens have 3 terrific centers and a solid goaltender. The Caps have two good lines and a all-world #1 defenseman.

I’m not sold on Corvo, Poti has not been good this year, and whoever are the 4-6 on defense can a big weakness.

For the Pens, their wingers are not producing at all and they have to see if Gonchar can rebound from a bad season.

All in all, it would be a great series.

by RCheli on Apr 6, 2010 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don’t think the ‘wingers are not producing at all’ comment is quite right for the Pens. Some of them (Guerin? Fedetenko? Haven’t checked their stats) aren’t doing what we’d like. But others (Dupuis; Cooke; Kunitz) are filling their role.

Also, where Corvo is a trade deadline question mark for the Caps, I think Poni is still a question mark for the Pens. He’s been playing good hockey, but we still don’t know if Malkin’s line will sort itself out.

Leafs fan living large in the Pitt and pretending like the drought is over. Go Pens!

by PopRocks on Apr 6, 2010 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

I disagree on a couple of things. First, Caps have four good lines. You put the 3rd & 4th line numbers up against any other teams 3rd & 4th lines and they look damn good. Second, Pens wingers aren’t all world but they are better than you might think, especially Dupuis. Some guys like Guerin & Talbot have not looked good during the regular season, but I suspect they’ll look better in the postseason, especially Talbot.

Totally agree on Corvo. Never seen a d-man so afraid of physical contact. I assume its his injury, but if its still that bad I’m concerned. Caps do have a a good one in the 4-6 slots in the American Hero. I’m interested to see how he plays in his first NHL postseason.

Caps deal better with Pens forecheck and do a better job of forechecking themselves they win this year. If they don’t then its probably a redux of last year. If either teams PP or PK improves that could change the dynamics as well.

"You ever use smelling salts, every time you type a bad blog?" Brooks Laich

by Carl Putnam on Apr 6, 2010 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

Here’s the thing — if Fleischmann shows up this postseason and if Belanger can start playing up to his ability, I’d agree that they have a nice 3rd line, but I don’t know if either is going to happen. (Belanger has been completely invisible, eh?)

Here’s the nightmare situation for the Caps: after a good shift by Crosby’s line against Green/Shultz, Malkin’s line comes out against… Poti/Corvo? Poti/Erskine? Corvo/Morrison? That could get real ugly.

I think when the deadline passed, I posted on Japer’s that I thought that Corvo (or his type of player) was not the guy that the Caps should’ve been going after — and I really thought they should to overpay (if necessary) to get a better two-way defenseman, one that could pair up with someone other than Green.

by RCheli on Apr 6, 2010 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think most people agreed that Corvo wasn’t ideal. Some of his defensive numbers from last year made him look like a decent option, but he hasn’t been very good. That said, he’s still better than Pothier so the Caps still got better.

Belanger has shown flashes but hasn’t really meshed yet. And he wouldn’t be on our 3rd line if it was my call. He’d be the 2C with Semin and Laich. Then the third would be Chimera/Bmo/Fehr. I wouldn’t dress Flash. But even when Flash does dress, he’s not the key to the third line really. If BMo and Fehr can continue to work they way they have lately then that third line will continue to be dangerous. If Flash plays well (spoiler alert: he won’t) then that’s just gravy. I love the Chimera/BMo/Fehr line but I think Flash takes Chimera’s spot and pushes Chimera to the 4th line. That’s if we stay healthy.

The nightmare situation is overblown. I know you are at Japers’ Rink regularly so I’m sure you saw DMG’s post today. At even strength the Caps D is among the best in the league. It’s the PK that is our Achilles’ heal. No, our D corps doesn’t look overwhelming on paper, but then again neither did PIT’s last year, or CAR’s in 2006, or TBL’s in 2004. If you have serviceable guys that play well as a team and get help from the forwards you can still win a Cup. That’s what the Caps are going to have to do because they don’t have a Niedermayer/Pronger/Beauchemin or Lidstrom/Rafalski/Kronwall core they can lean on.

A pretty girl is like a violent crime.

by Rob Parker on Apr 6, 2010 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

Not sure what you think Belanger should be doing as a 3rd line center. Jordan Staal is a rarity. Most other 3rd line guys are good F/O guys with average offensive skill and reliable defenders, Same goes for the wingers minus the F/O part. Caps have 2 20+ goal scorers on their 3rd line in Chimera and Fehr.

I disagree with F&B about 2nd line. BMo works better with Semin & Laich.

"You ever use smelling salts, every time you type a bad blog?" Brooks Laich

by Carl Putnam on Apr 6, 2010 11:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

Kunitz has been a dud this year (playing on a line with Crosby and significant power play time should get you more than 32 points in 50 games) and Fedotenko looks lost.

Cooke is pretty much the same point producer as he has been the past 4 seasons, and Geurin is just barely holding on.

Dupuis is the only real surprise.

I like what Ponikorovsky has done since he’s come over — he’s just snake-bit on the goals. (His 6% shooting percentage is an anomaly and should correct itself.)

by RCheli on Apr 6, 2010 1:31 PM EDT reply actions  

I’ll give you Fedotenko.

Kunitz has been hurt for much of the season, including a stretch where he was playing hurt. While healthy he’s been a force to be reckoned with on the first line.

Leafs fan living large in the Pitt and pretending like the drought is over. Go Pens!

by PopRocks on Apr 6, 2010 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, Kunitz had a rough beginning of the season, but after coming back from injury he’s been unreal.

by SlayerGhaleon on Apr 6, 2010 5:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

What are we considering to be “significant” power play time?

by PensAreYourDaddy on Apr 6, 2010 6:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

Nice job Hooks. You must be a mind-reader I was just thinking about the differences between the 2 since last season playoff time.

by CGNC on Apr 6, 2010 1:39 PM EDT reply actions  

Something tells me if I was a mind-reader I’d be really scared a lot of the time!

Pensburgh.com

"Don't matter who did what to who at this point. Fact is, we went to war and there ain't no turnin' back. I mean, s---, it's what war is, you know? Once you in it, you in it. If it's a lie, then we fight on that lie. But we gotta fight."

by Hooks Orpik on Apr 6, 2010 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

and really wealthy – LOL

by CGNC on Apr 6, 2010 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

Hope we win the division cause...

I don’t think the Pens can beat both the Caps and Devils in the same playoff run, which would likely happen assuming all the favorites won their opening round series.

Assuming the Pens finish 4th

Pens v. 5th seed (win)
Pens v. #1 Caps (?)
Pens v. #2 Devils (?)
Stanley Cup Finals

That is a tough rode-to-hoe

Wouldn’t a Pens v. Caps Eastern Conference finals be EXACTLY what the NHL needs?

Life is about one simple choice, get busy living or get busy dying

by Dr Tre on Apr 6, 2010 2:10 PM EDT reply actions  

Well, personally...

I think the NHL needs a national TV contract in the US more than any particular matchup. Pens and Caps have a few sexy names, but there are a WHOLE lot of amazing teams in the NHL, and most of them get less air time south of the border than South African water polo.

Look upon my 62% faceoff win rate, ye mortals, and despair!

by Orion Moony on Apr 7, 2010 2:58 AM EDT up reply actions  

Still.

It would be a good final. I’ll give you that.

Look upon my 62% faceoff win rate, ye mortals, and despair!

by Orion Moony on Apr 7, 2010 2:59 AM EDT up reply actions  

Biggest difference on Pens is the Defense

Last season the Pens had five defensemen who could handle a 2 on 1 break, without looking bad; Gill, Scuderi, Gonchar, Orpik, and Letang. This season they have Gonchar, Orpik, and Letang, and if one of them is injured, then this leaves the Pens with a weak defense. Last season they carried the extra defenseman in the playoffs, and that helped as well.

Because with Fleury’s flair in handling one on one situations, and five solid defensemen to help out, the Pens could really ramp up the offense, and throw the extra defenseman into the offense. As a result, they played an extremely fast tempo game, that wore their opponents down. It isn’t coincidental that the Pens came from behind in their two most challenging series, taking four of the last five from both the Caps and the Red Wings.

This year, the Pens simply can’t do that. The defense is too porous, and Fleury has taken too many shots (he’s not as sharp as earlier in the season). The Pens this year aren’t able to wear their opponents down as badly. I don’t think they can take either the Caps or the Devils… It will be very unlikely to repeat in the Eastern conference (only about a 5% chance). Washington will likely win (over 70%), NJD has chance (20%), and if Ryan Miller can get Buffalo to upset Washington, then Buffalo could beat the Devils (5%).

Pens will be gone when they run into either the Caps or the Devils. If we are lucky, Buffalo will upset the Devils in the 2nd round, but how will the Pens beat the Caps in the 2nd round? … only if Fluery plays out of his mind. Not likely. The Caps don’t even need Ovie to beat the Pens this year; they still will be favored even if Ovie misses a few games.

by zinfan94 on Apr 8, 2010 2:00 AM EDT reply actions  

Still find it weird

If you told me before the season started that Brooks & Letang are the designated “shut-down” defence pairing, I’d dump a pitcher of cold beer on you and swear.

Still don’t see them as such… Brooks maybe (but he’ll always be a first-line hitter to me) but Letang? Still don’t see it… This could be a problem…

by Alighieri on Apr 8, 2010 12:50 PM EDT reply actions  

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