So who gets to be a Penguin next year?
by JustinM on May 20, 2010 3:55 PM EDT
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Free agency is both an exciting and a strenuous time for fans. It has all the same characteristics of the trading deadline, with the added knowledge that the team will change, not just that it might. For me, that induces hand wringing about potentially watching some of my favorites walk out the door, never to return.
But enough about my psychological issues--it's about the crest on the front, not the name on the back, right? So what should the Penguins' lineup look like to start next season?
Jump with me.
Forwards who, barring trades, are under contract and returning:
| Chris Kunitz | Sidney Crosby | ? |
| Pascal Dupuis | Evgeni Malkin | ? |
| ? | Jordan Staal | Tyler Kennedy |
| Craig Adams | Maxime Talbot | Michael Rupp |
(For the sake of argument, I'm assuming Healthy Scratch Godard here.) And defensemen:
| Brooks Orpik | Kris Letang |
| Alex Goligoski | ? |
| ? | ? |
So, we've got some holes here to plug--3 forwards, 3 starting defenseme
n, and a 7th defenseman. We know that much already; there've been approximately 237 stories and FanPosts about this so far since the ignominious playoff exit. So, with Bettman expecting the cap to stay about the same next season, and Hooks estimating $11.828M of cap space to play with, what should the Penguins do to fill the holes, assuming there aren't any big trades?
The second and third lines might be the easy moves. If you bring up Mark Letestu ($500k) and Eric Tangradi ($875k) to fill those two holes, you've just spent a cheap $1.375M to fill two forward holes. That's taking a bit of a risk that both players are ready when they break camp, but it's almost a risk this team has to take if they're not going to dump salary. We're now down to $10.453M remaining with five holes to fill.
Let's add another body from Wilkes-Barre, the second-guessing fan's favorite defenseman, Ben Lovejoy. Problem: he's a restricted free agent. The Penguins will have to send him a qualifying offer of at least $550k in order to keep his rights. I'm guessing, considering his NHL inexperience, that he'll sign that contract if they offer it to him. Plug him into one of those pairings, and we're down to $9.903M.
There are still bargains to be had on defense as well. How about Mike Mottau, just for Kelly?
He's a stay at home defenseman with 5.9 DGVT this season who made less than $800k. Sign him to a two-year deal at $1M per year, plug him in. Down to $8.903M with two more defensemen and a forward to go.
Let's splurge a little on the next defenseman. There's someone I have in mind...
Another stay at home guy, Henrik Tallinder made just over $2.5M this season. See if you can land him for a $3M for a couple seasons' cap hit and get another 6.4 DGVT to call your own. Down to $5.903M, and now you need a replacement for Healthy Scratch Jay McKee. You're not looking for a world beater here, and honestly unless you run into injury problems this player isn't going to see a lot of time. You just need someone who won't embarrass himself out there. Guess what? Deryk Engelland is just your man, and he'll be making just $500k next year. $5.403M left.
So what top-six winger can we buy with five million and change?
Well, I don't think you'd have to spend that much, to be honest, to pick up someone who could score 30 or more with Pittsburgh. Finding himself again after a trade to a better team, a man just entering his age-27 season, someone I think would look awfully good on Sid's wing without completely breaking the bank and hamstringing the Penguins' budget for (several) years to come?
Why did I just hear Fleet Fox and PopRocks shooting themselves in the head?
This leaves you with, in my estimation:
| Chris Kunitz | Sidney Crosby | Lee Stempniak |
| Pascal Dupuis | Evgeni Malkin | Eric Tangradi |
| Mark Letestu | Jordan Staal | Tyler Kennedy |
| Craig Adams | Maxime Talbot | Michael Rupp |
| Brooks Orpik | Kris Letang |
| Alex Goligoski | Henrik Tallinder |
| Mike Mottau | Ben Lovejoy |
What do you think? Reasonable or no?
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Comments
Yeah, can’t say I like that. At the risk of repeating myself with names of potential targets: Demitra, Higgins, Prospal. Hell I’d take Afinogenov before Stempniak.
Otherwise, not bad, Justin. I think the Pens can/will address the d-line a little more than just Mottau, Lovejoy and Tallinder, but I like the Tallinder suggestion. He’d be a great fit in Pittsburgh, if Shero could nab him.
I didn’t forget about Afinogenov. The problem is that either he’s going to command a salary he’s not worth or he’ll leave you with a lot of extra cap space. If you don’t mind the latter, then he’d probably be a better pickup, yes.
i actually think Afino’s a good idea, I doubt he’d get snipey about his contract numbers and he’s had experience playing with speedy playmaking centers like Drury (pre-NY) and Briere (stupid Flyers!) Though nothing of Sid or Geno’s calibre…
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I agree. I would not mind seeing Tallinder in a Pens Jersey. He’s got decent size and could move the puck a few notches better than Mckee.
"Let the Rabbits wear glasses"
this i can get behind… He’s not Marc Staal or Michalek but I think he’s a good consolation prize… Just wish Shero could get really serious on Staal. He’s someone you can build around…
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I’m not totally against the Stempniak idea. I would certainly take him over Higgins, Dmitra, and Tanguay though.
by genomachine-O on May 21, 2010 7:45 AM EDT up reply actions
agreed
Put Stempniak on a line with Sid and he should score 30 goals. He scored 28 for Two terrible teams-Toronto and Pheonix (ok, I know Pheonix was the #4 seed but they really revolved around their defensemen and Bryzgalov)
by 2010 will be the year on May 23, 2010 8:12 PM EDT up reply actions
if the pens could afford him I think he’s be my first pick. Dont know if thats going to happen though
by genomachine-O on May 21, 2010 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions
I don’t see any evidence that suggests to me that his less than stellar performance in Toronto wasn’t simply because of the quality of the team in general. He scored 27 in 2006-07 and 28 this season. Considering the other options, everyone is either too expensive (Kovalchuk), too old and/or broken (Kariya, Selanne, Tkachuk), not good enough, or some combination thereof (Demitra).
He scored 28 this year, but that’s a little misleading from his hot stint in Phoenix where he got lightning in a bottle, the stars aligned and he scored 14 in 18. That’s not going to happen over an 82 game stretch. To that end, his shots per game were pretty close in Toronto and Phoenix, leading me to believe Stempniak got a little lucky.
Stempniak came back to earth in the playoffs: 0 goals, 2 assists, -4.
I’d rather have Higgins, Ray Whitney or Tanguay. Heck, I’d even take a chance on Marek Svatos, who has as many career goals as Stempniak in 58 less career games. Or Matt Lombardi, Demitra, Afinogenov and the list goes on and on.
Afinogenov actually made almost three times less than Stemp this past season, so he might even come cheaper!
Just my personal preference.
It’s funny, I think a lot of Stempniak’s problems the two seasons he failed to reach 20 goals in a full season was luck. 8.0% and 8.2% shooting percentage is really low for someone who’s shown scoring ability, and he’s been above that the rest of his career.
Higgins scored 8 goals this year in 67 games. Yeah, again, terrible shooting percentage so that’ll come back up, but he was god awful.
Whitney’s too old to run with Crosby full time. Tanguay hasn’t just been declining, he’s been falling off a cliff. Besides, he s a left wing. I’d be fine with Svatos, but you’re right in that it would be taking a chance. A big one. Lombardi’s a center by trade. If he can play the wing full-time I’d like that pickup. Demitra’s done.
Afinogenov, though, I’d take in a heartbeat. I’m afraid someone’s going to throw a ridiculous sum at him, though.
Whitney can still keep up — he’s among the scoring leaders at the WC. His biggest question to me is not his skill level, but whether he’d be willing to take a 1 year deal.
Demitra just led the Olympics in scoring, I think he’s got a little left in the tank. He also had a modest 2g, 4a in 11 playoff games for VAN, not world beating numbers, but it shows he aint totally out of gas, even if he does have some health/durability issues.
Higgins was in a bad situation that got worst going from NYR to CAL. Maybe it won’t work out in Pittsburgh, but something tells me he could mesh well with Crosby. I like Higgins hands a lot better than Stempniak, and his price ought to be better too.
We’ll see about Afinogenov, a lot of people thought someone would snatch him up then too and he sat out for a long time. He did well in Atlanta and seemed to repair his rep some, but I don’t see him getting a big deal.
I think Whitney would be the dream scenario. I’m nowhere near as high on Higgins as you are Hooks. I’d take Stempniak over him for the same money.
Whitney as the dream scenario? I’d prefer to have someone a decade younger than Ray, I’m not sure he can keep up with the young guys.
I understand that….but who? and how? For the price/talent that he can offer to this team…..i’m not sure I see a better fit on the FA market. Whitney plays younger than Guerin….and we did pretty good with him.
Right. Kovalchuk for $5M/year for 6 seasons or so would be my dream scenario. I also understand that it’s utterly unrealistic, but that’s why it’s a dream. :)
maybe Mario will want to play on the new ice and lace em up for a year too.
by genomachine-O on May 21, 2010 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions
Stempniak’s never played with centers of our calibre… so maybe he’d get a helluva lot more bounces if he does… The way our team’s constructed, I’m actually expecting whoever’s playing next to Sid or Geno to be nothing more than a loaner, an experiment…
The first person to find that lightning in a bottle like Billy G & Kuni. Just see it more likely that Whitney’s that guy… Although if Stempniak gets the job and does it well, we might be able to get 5 years out of him which would end all we need a winger threads for a few years
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Just so I never have to answer this again. I'm from Singapore so whenever you see me online, I'm either sleep deprived or just waking up.
You think 1 good season is enough to jack up the price of Afinogenov? Idk he signed a tryout contract last year. I think you could get him for less than Stempniak. We’ll see I guess it only takes 1 GM.
by genomachine-O on May 21, 2010 7:38 AM EDT up reply actions
Tanguay?
I loved him as an Av but his best days are way behind him
by Mario's Mullet on May 21, 2010 12:21 AM EDT up reply actions
he was downright awful last season, I’d stay far far away
by genomachine-O on May 21, 2010 7:38 AM EDT up reply actions
Same can be said for Svatos. All those games he missed this year . . . Very few due to injury…
Avalanche fan stuck in Penguin territory.
I’m guessing your an Av’s fan. Was he playing with Sakic when he was putting up good numbers? 32g in 61gms and 26g in 62gms are pretty good numbers.
What happend to him, he seems to be on the decline, yet is still only 27?
by genomachine-O on May 21, 2010 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions
No please not Stempniak. He is just a smaller version of Ponikarovsky, without the hands.
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He’s got just as much pedigree as James Neal, and if I remember correctly, we were all drooling over him at the trade deadline.
Wait what?
Stempniak is 27 years old and average height weight 6’0/195.
Neal is a lot bigger, younger and has shown a much better chance of achieving his potential.
Wouldn’t even put those two in the same sentence.
I guess living in Toronto and seeing him up close, I’m not high on Stempniak. I don’t know alot about Neal, but if the choice was between those two, I’d take a chance on Neal. He’s only 22
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Do you seriously think Dallas is going to let Neal walk?
by Mario's Mullet on May 21, 2010 12:24 AM EDT up reply actions
not a chance in hell. But with Hick’s situation you never know. I think Benn and Neal are both in the last years of their entry deals.
by genomachine-O on May 21, 2010 7:47 AM EDT up reply actions
I think they are too but not a chance will they let Neal and Benn both walk.
by Mario's Mullet on May 21, 2010 8:30 AM EDT up reply actions
I don’t really know if Ponikarovsky had hands either once he put on the black and gold.
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I’d like it, but I don’t think it’ll happen. He’ll probably get a bigger contract than what he has now, and he’ll likely want more than 2 years. Shero has stated several times in the past that he won’t give a three-year contract to a role player.
I kind of agree. I think it’s going to cost a bit more than the Pens would like to spend to keep Cooke.
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i think they might give Cooke 3 years if he comes down a bit on the $
he’s an ideal fit — much better than Ruutu was, and apparently Shero thought abt 3 for him, at last for a second — and he’s happy w/ the Pens
also…no one will give him Top 6 money, so he has a ceiling
Yea I agree, if you give Cooke a 3rd year that could go a long way towards him staying in the burgh for a little less than elsewhere. Its still going to be tough, I’d love to see Cookie stay, but the last 2 days of numbers crunching here, I’m not sure I’d want Cooke for a cap hit of 2 million and over.
by genomachine-O on May 21, 2010 7:41 AM EDT up reply actions
This article has made me very optimistic about free agency this year and the pens. Heres hoping Cooke really wants to stay and signs an average contract to do so.
Seems like we’re almost going to have to put a guy like Tangradi on the second line. I can’t imagine finding two wingers good enough to afford and put on out top 2 lines. Glad I am not in the front office right now.
This is my point. When all is said and done, you need a cohesive team, lines that make sense. You can’t really have Tangradi, Letestu, AND Cooke on the team unless you get rid of someone else. Again, since I was working in an “academic exercise” sort of environment where there were no trades, you just can’t do it.
Not trying to bash your work, because it’s thought out and it’s not impossible, but by my count you have four players playing out of position. Also why not have Eaton over Tallinder and save another million for someone better than Stempniak?
You’re not bashing. I post to start a discussion and it seems it’s worked.
The Pens had players out of position all year. All year. Mostly centers playing on the wing, but they do it constantly.
But yeah, Tangradi’s on the wrong side, but there’s nowhere else to put him. Giving him bottom-six minutes isn’t going to tell you what you have. Adams is on the wrong side, that’s a mistake (but I’ll leave it there so these comments make sense.) Five of the bottom 6 (other than Adams) are actually centers, so I’m not really sure what you’re supposed to do with that.
sorry for not saying sth. about the topic, but
i get so see another game of malkin and gonchar on saturday here in germany. Germany managed to beat switzerland 1:0 with a stunning defensive play in the last period, including a good brawl after the last whistle ^^ (which is a wonderful thing for german hockey!)
Germany will play Russia on Saturday :)
PS: Christian Ehrhoff was stabbed in the nuts…outch
Forom Genos stat totals, it seems like he’s playing good. I dont know where to see any of the games here.
by genomachine-O on May 21, 2010 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions
And I can’t imagine letting go of both Leopold and Eaton. I would say one is nearly a lock to stay in Pitt, with both staying being pretty likely.
Eaton was a consistent d-man for a good price. Given the history of his injuries I don’t think it would’ve been in his best interest to try and ask for more money, but now he’s stayed healthy for a few consecutive years and has a ring to boot.
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Plus you never hear his name, at times i forgot he was even on the team, which means he’s doing what he’s supposed to do back there.
if it came to Eaton or Leopold, I’d go for Eaton, he’s the kind of invisible (in a zero blinding mistake way) jack of all trades kind of defenseman that can complement almost anyone in a third pairing…
Also, I doubt we’d expect a lot of anyone playing the 3rd pair. Just to clear pucks out of the zone, not cough up the puck on a regular basis and possibly cover and mentor Lovejoy…
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Just so I never have to answer this again. I'm from Singapore so whenever you see me online, I'm either sleep deprived or just waking up.
There’s gotta be a winger out there who is willing to take less money to take the most beautiful passes you’ve seen in the NHL in a loooong time. Hell I know if I was a free agent winger, I would be begging Shero to sign me. I mean what the hell is the difference between $3m and $4m? You’re a millionaire already, take a little less to win the Stanley Cup.
The union doesn’t like it when people do that, for obvious reasons. There’s a lot of pressure on players to take the money and run, both from agents (who like the payday, nevermind that they’re supposed to be representing what the player wants) and from the union, who sees players giving “hometown discounts” as depressing the general value of players in general.
Yeah, but what pull does the player’s union really have in that situation? All they can do is say “please don’t take a discount.”
Well I mean, since Geno’s a choke artist and has no motivation, we should clearly trade him and then sign Marleau.
Pirates, Vikings, Hokies. I'm used to heartbreak. At least I have the Penguins....
"When I put on my uniform, I feel I am the proudest man on earth."
-The Great One
by blackjackfishtaco on May 20, 2010 6:05 PM EDT reply actions
It was sarcasm, I love Geno. Stuff that I have been reading and hearing. Trust me, I read this blog for the sane thoughts, but some other places….not so sane.
Pirates, Vikings, Hokies. I'm used to heartbreak. At least I have the Penguins....
"When I put on my uniform, I feel I am the proudest man on earth."
-The Great One
by blackjackfishtaco on May 21, 2010 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions
And if some people didn’t like Geno’s disappearing act this season, they would love Marleau
Pirates, Vikings, Hokies. I'm used to heartbreak. At least I have the Penguins....
"When I put on my uniform, I feel I am the proudest man on earth."
-The Great One
by blackjackfishtaco on May 21, 2010 10:17 AM EDT up reply actions
I had a dream about Stempniak
I really don’t know much about him, but all I can say is that several months ago I had a dream that I was talking to Sidney Crosby while wearing a Penguins jersey with Stempniak’s name and number. I was sure that meant he would be heading our way at the trade deadline, but maybe my psychic/dream prediction was just a little early.
That’s pretty funny. I hope you reference this if it does happen once free agency starts.
I don’t know much about Stempniak, but after seeing what he did with Phoenix, I was very disappointed with what he did in the playoffs. Maybe if he was put with someone like Sid or Geno, he would find that confidence or “lightning in a bottle” again.
I really don’t know about Afino. His speed is unbelievable (how would you like to see that speed go chase a puck in the corner for Sid instead of Billy G; with all due respect to him?), but I don’t know how well it would work out. I was really excited to see him and Geno play together at the Olympics, but they just had no chemistry at all.
I would like to see GMRS sign some younger guys at wing (25, 26), but I don’t really think that’s possible. Oh well, experience can’t hurt.
Oh and I definitely think Cookie’s coming back; I think he really likes playing with Staal and TK. Eaton’s probably coming back too; don’t know about Leo though (he had a few bad games in the playoffs…), but he could be valuable if Gonch leaves.
I've told [a 9 months pregnant] Nathalie that she can't have the baby on a game night. I'm not missing a playoff game. -Mario Lemieux in 1993
LOL
I was just skimming through without reading too closely, and I saw Stempniak. It gave me … well … I paused for a minute. Then I saw what you wrote after that. You crack me up!
We should only take Stempniak if we want to really get our hopes up, and then be let down in a tragically frustrating manner. And I think we’ve had enough of that for awhile! Lee Streakniak is probably a better name for him.
Go, Shero, Go!!! And also Brian Burke.
Heh, yeah, he does have that…trait. Perhaps he’d be a better fit with Streako Malkin, then? Maybe one would be hot while the other was cold. :)
Or they’d both go cold at the same time, Malkin would lose confidence in Streak, and Streak would never see the puck again.
And considering the fact that Streak’s not very good away from the puck. Well … that might become an issue!
Go, Shero, Go!!! And also Brian Burke.
I wonder if Geno will ever live down the puck hog rep* he’s managed to get for himself.
- Rep completely deserved as of 5/21/2010.
Maybe. If he … you know … stops hogging the puck.
Although I get it: when you are let down every time you make a play, and your wingers don’t get themselves into a position so that you can make a play to them … and you have the ability to skate through masses of players without giving up the puck … well … I might try it too!
Go, Shero, Go!!! And also Brian Burke.
i would say
we need to keep cooke first. then its a toss up between afineganov, svatos, whitney, tangradi, letestu, and higgins on wing.
as for defense, id say if gonchar wants to come in for a low price than by all means bring him back, if not thats fine. we have lovejoy,england, and despres who i am extremely high on him being a good player. FA wise i would say see what McKee and Eaton want, Brett Clark, Dan Hamhuis, and Ruslan Salei is also a good puck moving defenseman
He’s a restricted free agent. I wouldn’t want to try to sign him for what it would take for Washington to say, “Forget it, he’s yours.”
But maybe they should make a high-ish offer, just to make Washington have to pay more. You know … screw them!
Go, Shero, Go!!! And also Brian Burke.
there would be obvious ramifications in doing that. Maybe with Tangradi, Despres….others down the line. I would stay out of other teams RFA business…especially seeing that we’ll be up against the cap for the next several years.
We have a chance not to be so close to the cap this year as we have been the last two, and we should take it. If Shero were so inclined to dump Kunitz’s contract on another team, he’s not going to be able to do so easily and may need the cap space to handle an even bigger contract.
You hear about this a ton in the NFL (but I don’t recall much from the NFL), a league who has figured out the salary cap, so maybe it will happen here, but…why not try and restructure Kunitz’s deal. Extend him a couple years, but at a lower cost for this year and the next two. He get’s a few more years, but loses a bit of money this year. Say extend him 3 years for a total of 4 years at about 2.5-2.75 million? I certainly think he’s worth that and it saves us a good chunk of money for a player that fits the Penguins’ system quite well, in my opinion.
by TheRebelMonk on May 21, 2010 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions
You hear about this a ton in the NFL (but I don’t recall much from the NHL), a league who has figured out the salary cap, so maybe it will happen here, but…why not try and restructure Kunitz’s deal. Extend him a couple years, but at a lower cost for this year and the next two. He get’s a few more years, but loses a bit of money this year. Say extend him 3 years for a total of 4 years at about 2.5-2.75 million? I certainly think he’s worth that and it saves us a good chunk of money for a player that fits the Penguins’ system quite well, in my opinion.
by TheRebelMonk on May 21, 2010 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions
well, what you’re calling for is a change to the CBA…..as per current rules, that wouldn’t be an option. The NFL cap # is a lot more convoluted than the NHL’s.
Let me rephrase since I don’t think it was clear what I meant. Not really an extension but a new contract. If they can essentially make a new contract at agreement between both parties at that cost. Or does the current CBA restrict the ability of something like that happening because a player must get paid what his contract says even if both parties wish to forego the final year to write a new contract? I’m not meaning to move money around in a real restructurement like the NFL does, but rather just to drop the current deal and start a new one. Does that still create the issue/is there precedent for this?
by TheRebelMonk on May 21, 2010 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions
Ahhh! All this makes my head hurt!
Haha it’s fun stuff, debating these things.
Plus, it’s… something to do these days besides watching other teams playing hockey.
by AppleSweetRose on May 21, 2010 12:52 AM EDT reply actions
Does anyone else think that Cooke would be a perfect fit in Toronto? I think he would fit well in Montreal, too. Chicago would work, come to think of it. I could see any of those teams making some space for him.
Toronto’s LWs: Kulemin (RFA), Stalberg, Sjostrom, Caputi
Montreal’s LWs: A Kostistyn, S Kostitsyn (RFA), Moen, Pouliot (RFA), Darche (UFA)
Chicago’s LWs: Ladd (RFA), Eager (RFA), Bickell (AHL, RFA)
Toronto and Chicago have a lack of veteran natural LWs, Montreal’s LWs are inconsistant (Kostitsyns) or bench warmers (Darche). I especially think Toronto would be good because Cooke could step in as a veteran leader for their developing LWs (ages 22, 23, 26, 20). I would love to see Cooke back, but he fits too well with other teams that have the cap space.
Get Volchenkov and we are fine
Forget about high priced european forwards. The ones that are “available”, rarely make an impact in the playoffs. The key is defense. The get a player from this side of the ocean for a low price, willing to go the net and keep his stick on the ice.
Tallinder > Volchenkov, defensively. Volchenkov has a rep for good defense because he blocks a lot of shots.
Yea the more I think about Volchenkov the less I think he’d fit in the Pens system. I dont think he skates or passes well enough to be a good fit with the Pens. Yea, I take him , but I think there might be better fits out there.
by genomachine-O on May 24, 2010 7:29 AM EDT up reply actions
The Hawks have to dump some salary this year. Pens should target Sharp or Byfuglien as those are the two that will most likely be on the block. If Cooke asks for too much go after Eager. All casualties of the previous poor gming in Chicago.
by Jeremywilhelm on May 21, 2010 8:30 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
oh man, if we got sharp…
STAAL FOR SELKE. SIDNEY FOR EVERY OTHER ONE OR JUST THE HART. THAT IS ACCEPTABLE.
by katielynn906 on May 21, 2010 9:47 PM EDT up reply actions
My order of Wingers to sign to play with Crosby or Malkin next year
1 Ray Whitney
2 Pavol Demitra
3 Maxim Afinigenov
4 Lee Stempniak
5 Christopher Higgins
6 Ben Eager
by 2010 will be the year on May 23, 2010 8:16 PM EDT reply actions
I’d take 1,3 and 4 and wouldnt touch any of the others. I’d take Ladd over Eager for sure. Higgins is awful and ask a Canucks fan their opinion of Dmitra.
by genomachine-O on May 24, 2010 7:31 AM EDT up reply actions
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