Forget wingers for a second: it's Sid and Geno's show
by Hooks Orpik on May 26, 2010 10:35 AM EDT
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It's the constant refrain around these parts: finding skilled wingers to play with Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, find more skill, find more skill. What may be lost in this endless struggle is just what Sid and Geno can do.
Some food for thought here -- take this piece by Sporting News' Craig Custance. He's talking about the advanced stats and forecasting that Marian Hossa's agent runs before they decide which team the mercenary will play for:
Winter, with help from mathematical advisors, has determined exactly how many points a contending team needs from its top six forward group and top four defensemen, and the save percentage required from a goalie to become a 100-point team.
For example, if all thresholds are met from the defensemen and goalies, a team that gets at least 143 goals from its top six forwards will get 100 points. According to Winter, that number has stayed true every year since the lockout.
This number held for the Penguins this season, as they recorded a 101 point season and got the production as follows from their primary "Top 6" forwards:
-Crosby: 51
-Geno: 28
-Bill Guerin: 21
-Pascal Dupuis: 18
-Chris Kunitz: 13
-Ruslan Fedotenko: 11
(I know, this only adds up to 142, but remember, Kunitz missed 30 games to injury, Malkin 15, so their replacements more than made up the difference).
Interestingly, this doesn't even take into account the 3rd line, led by Jordan Staal's 21 goals, which is a lot more than most teams get from their 3rd line center, thus giving the Pens that competitive advantage we so enjoy bantering about.
The moral of the story? Crosby and Malkin in their four seasons together, have combined for 79, 68, 71 and 69 goals going back through the years. Those two guys are going to generate 50%+ of the metric needed that puts a team well on it's way to a 100 point season, much like 2009-10. We'd all love to add that sniper that could pot 40+ goals playing on a top line, but a successful team can and has to be built in the salary cap world around the pieces you got.
So yeah, the Penguins need to find ways to replace guys like Fedotenko and hope for more production out of wingers, but don't let that over-ride the fate that the big dogs are just always going to be the ones fueling the engine that is the Penguins season.
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I have always thought of the need for a top flight winger as a selfish need. As in, Crosby could put up 100 assists and 40 + goals if he had a 40-50 goal scorer on his wing. Can the Pens win a cup without a true #1 winger?…well duh, they already did. It’s kind of like hoping Sid gets his Kevin Stevens or Rob Brown( even if it was only a year or two of great productivity in Brown’s case). That being said I probably could have scored 30+ goals playing Mario’s line.
"Let the Rabbits wear glasses"
Opps comment fail. anyways. We have the core. There is no need to trade Geno or Sid or find a high priced winger. We need to reload with affordable hungry forwards and throw “the core” back out there.
Put on your dancin' shoes.
I agree, the pens dont need a Marian Hossa on Sid or Genos wing to win. Sure it would be nice to see how many points those two could put up with top notch wingers. They won a cup with out great wingers though. I think next season they just need to do a little better than Satan and Fedotenko. I wonder if some way these stats would relate to playoff success as well.
by genomachine-O on May 26, 2010 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions
Geno just had a bad year. even strength he was generating very little, was and was poor defensively, he was still the man on the power play.
Geno won’t play that bad every year his talent is top 5 in the world and he can be the best on any given night, but if he plays like that again I would move him.
Look at the hawks next year, they can’t afford to keep half their team, but this year they rule because they have top level talent that are being underpaid (toews kane and Keith andI think a couple more) all on entry level contracts. Thats why the draft is so important, not cause those rookies are that much better their just as good but you get to pay them less alowing you more room. the team with the highest Free agent market value has the best chance at winning.
Phili B
Geno won’t play that bad every year his talent is top 5 in the world and he can be the best on any given night, but if he plays like that again I would move him.
I agree. Maybe not actually trading him, but just shopping him. Last year, I was totally convinced that Geno had taken over this team and was the heart and soul as their best player. Never again. He’s just not consistent. It’s almost as if Geno decides whether or not he wants to play at 50% effort or 100% (not accusing, but that’s what it looks like at times). He would have to have more than two amazing seasons for me to consider him the best again. Even without that, he finished a respectable 15th in league in points, which is amazing, but he could do so much better and that’s what’s frustrating.
I hope Shero can mooch of the Hawks’ cap trouble. I would be very antsy to win a Cup now if I’m a Hawks player/fan/member of the organization because that group of guys if going to get decimated this offseason.
I've told [a 9 months pregnant] Nathalie that she can't have the baby on a game night. I'm not missing a playoff game. -Mario Lemieux in 1993
by PensFan8725 on May 27, 2010 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions
I think overall Geno has earned 1 more year before the trade talks become legit. Hes only a year removed from the Art Ross…etc… If he has another down year next year then I think you can start looking at it. Sure you wont get as much in return after another down year but, I dont see him having another down year, and second the upside is to great with Geno to give up on him after one “sub par” season (even though he still averaged over a point per game.) He can be very frustrating at times because we’ve all seen him at times just dominate and make you question whether maybe he was the best player in the NHL. I think lack of focus and consistency was also a team issue last year not just Geno. I think next season Geno will be refreshed focused and ready for another long haul. I’ll continue to believe that until he proves otherwise.
by genomachine-O on May 27, 2010 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions
THIS!
Awright Hooks!
Bring on the revolving door of wingers… It’s just like we’ve all been saying, forget moving Geno & Staalsy to the wings, we just need to stick our game plans and get better defensively and on the PP. Until we find the lightning in a bottle winger that just clicks with Sid or Geno, we can deal with a coupla Poni type busts till we find our next Billy G.
I'm 21 now... I still feel 20 and I still feel way too old.
Just so I never have to answer this again. I'm from Singapore so whenever you see me online, I'm either sleep deprived or just waking up.
The article didn’t specify the rest of the metrics. Being as they got a reasonable save percentage (.905 I believe) and got strong points out of Gonchar, Goligoski and Letang, I’d imagine they did meet the other benchmarks.
Of course, potentially losing Gonchar could drastically affect Crosby/Malkin’s goal totals, since #55 has been running and setting up the PP for years now and racked up a ton of PP assists.
the save % seems a bit low for a top tier team. the D points were prob pretty good (WAG) given that Gonchar hit 50, GoGo had a strong start, etc. was curious b/c the Pens seemed to make the forwards metric okay — as you pointed out 142 PLUS the other goals chipped in when Kunitz, Guerin, etc. were out w/ injury.
my sense is that they may have been a tad low on the combined D/G metrics and a tad high on the forwards metric — w/c is why they ended up at almost exactly 100 points (101).
That’s my sense too.
Depending on other factors (like shots allowed) save percentage could have been de-emphasized. For instance, if they figured in allowing 27 or 28 shots a game, a .905 save % puts you at a good goals/average.
Of course it could be a little more complicated than that simple example, so who knows, but my feeling is they considered D/G but really looked at what F’s that Hossa could help.
my worry is that people are going to start using that lower save % as a manner to criticize Flower as a bad goaltender and the weak link of this team.
Flower sees less shots than a lot of goaltenders but a lot more high % shots due to the Pens Run & Gun style of play. That coupled with his defensive corps mostly being offensive oriented defensemen like Sarge, Tanger & GoGo, it’s natural that his save % is bound to go down.
I'm 21 now... I still feel 20 and I still feel way too old.
Just so I never have to answer this again. I'm from Singapore so whenever you see me online, I'm either sleep deprived or just waking up.
totally agree, Alighieri.
that’s part of the reason i was curious about the rest of the metrics.
IF the Pens address the D corps as the #1 priority this off-season,
assuming they do so successfully (in Shero we Trust),
that would ALSO help Flower’s #s
which, acc. to Winter’s formula, would mean that they wouldn’t need as much production from their wingers to get back to the 101 point plateau.
now, if they can address the D corps,
get the add’l benefit that will have on Flower/Johnny essentially “for free” or as a “by-product” of the improved D corps
and STILL improve their Forwards — even if its just a little bit,
well, now you have a pretty substantial improvement overall.
and reason to smile like a butcher’s dog.
I have to agree with this article.
Those people suggesting The Pens trade Geno were out of their minds. Go find some cheap 20-goal scorers, and keep this three-line monster together, it’s great.
You know, if Poni were to come back cheap, I think he could be a perfect solution, despite the weak playoff showing. In fact, because this was a contract year for him, you might get a deal.
"Defense! Defense! Common! Do you call that blowing!?"
I’d be down for Ponikarovsky if he came at like $2-2.5 million. Don’t know if that’s his goal or not.
I mean, look at around at the UFA’s and it’s not like there’s a ton of talent out there.
wow. that seems like an awful lot for a guy who was a healthy scratch when it mattered most.
can we re-sign Gary Roberts instead?
Sadly, Gary Roberts now belongs to Steven Stamkos. As does Steve Yzerman.
Hmm … maybe we should try to lure Stamkos this way!
On a more serious note: I’m not sure I’m up for $2.5 million for Poni. At best, I’d offer him Fedetenko’s contract from last year ($1.8-ish, I think). And I’d want the coaches, etc. to be optimistic that he’d fit into the Pens’ system pretty well, despite evidence to the contrary.
Go, Shero, Go!!! And also Brian Burke.
i’d rather see that money allocated almost anywhere else:
bolster the D (thereby helping Flower in the process)
re-sign Cooke
sign Prospal OR Malhotra
or, MAYBE even a guy like Higgins
or Kariya — on a low-cost, 1-yr, “last shot at the Cup” deal
Winter’s mathematical advisors are pointing out that there is more than 1 way to skin a cat
Besides the obvious question (ie, Who TF skins cats?)…
the point of Hooks’s piece is that the wingers do not really matter: “It’s Sid and Geno’s Show”
I think I heard James Neal of the Stars was training with Roberts too this summer. He was already a pretty good power forward, he’s gonna be a beast if he experiences Stamkos level results.
I really wish we could send guys like Tangradi, NIck Johnson to train with Gary.
Didn’t Sid also train with Scary?
I've told [a 9 months pregnant] Nathalie that she can't have the baby on a game night. I'm not missing a playoff game. -Mario Lemieux in 1993
by PensFan8725 on May 27, 2010 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions
what really cheeses me off about Poni’s his reluctance to use his big body. He isn’t skilled enough to rely solely on his hands to carry a team and he plays plenty soft… If he was a little more eager on the forecheck or stuck in front of the net a little more, I’d pay that 2 million for him
I'm 21 now... I still feel 20 and I still feel way too old.
Just so I never have to answer this again. I'm from Singapore so whenever you see me online, I'm either sleep deprived or just waking up.
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