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Is Fleury's bounce back ability unusual this playoffs?

All GAA values in this post are approximate, quick and dirty calculations.  They aren't perfect because I intentionally used only minutes for TOI and ignored seconds altogether, so in most cases the GAAs given here will be somewhat higher than actual.  They will never be too low.  Also, all numbers are as of noon on May 9, 2010.

Much has been made this playoffs, and indeed this entire season of Marc-Andre Fleury's ability to bounce back after a loss.  Indeed, the stats seem to bear this out in the postseason, as Fleury has a 1.21 GAA with a .951 SV% following a loss.

This got me to wondering whether he was an unusual case this year.  Small--minuscule, actually--sample size caveats apply.  Data after the jump.

Star-divide

First the GAA data:

Name Team GAA after loss GAA after win Win - Loss
Niemi CHI 0.67 3.87 3.20
Bryzgalov PHX 2.36 5.08 2.73
Miller BUF 1.75 4.17 2.43
Leclaire OTT 1.68 3.48 1.80
Fleury PIT 1.21 2.82 1.61
Anderson COL 2.47 3.56 1.08
Howard DET 2.31 3.29 0.97
Quick LAK 3.51 4.07 0.56
Nabokov SJS 2.16 2.64 0.48
Halak MTL 2.45 2.82 0.37
Boucher PHI 2.85 2.39 -0.46
Varlamov WSH 2.56 2.03 -0.53
Brodeur NJD 3.43 2.86 -0.57
Rinne NSH 3.30 2.63 -0.67
Rask BOS 3.00 2.29 -0.71
Luongo VAN 5.40 2.16 -3.25
Elliott OTT 5.78 2.07 -3.71

And now the SV% data:

Name Team SV% after loss SV% after win Loss - Win
Niemi CHI 0.976 0.872 0.104
Miller BUF 0.942 0.871 0.071
Fleury PIT 0.951 0.890 0.061
Bryzgalov PHX 0.924 0.878 0.046
Leclaire OTT 0.949 0.907 0.042
Howard DET 0.930 0.895 0.035
Nabokov SJS 0.922 0.894 0.028
Anderson COL 0.940 0.918 0.022
Halak MTL 0.931 0.921 0.010
Quick LAK 0.863 0.875 -0.012
Rask BOS 0.898 0.923 -0.024
Rinne NSH 0.889 0.921 -0.032
Brodeur NJD 0.872 0.912 -0.040
Boucher PHI 0.882 0.927 -0.045
Varlamov WSH 0.865 0.936 -0.071
Luongo VAN 0.827 0.931 -0.104
Elliott OTT 0.814 0.935 -0.122

Both of Ottawa's goalies get listed here because they essentially split time almost perfectly evenly through the course of their series against the Penguins.

Quick answer?  No, Fleury's not unusual in this regard this year.  More than half (9 of 17) goalies had better outings after their teams lost:  Antti Niemi, Ilya Bryzgalov, Ryan Miller, Pascal Leclaire, Fleury, Craig Anderson, Jimmy Howard, Evgeni Nabokov, and Jaroslav Halak.  Furthermore, Jonathan Quick had a slightly better GAA after a loss than after a win, although his SV% dropped slightly in those games.  Antti Niemi is the extreme case here:  he gives up less than 1 goal per 60 minutes after he loses a game, and almost 4 after he wins, combined with a save percentage that's over 100 points different.  Without running numbers for tens of years of data (by hand because I don't know of a better way to get this stuff than that), I have to think this is a pretty insane number.

Only 5 of those 10 goaltenders succeeded in reaching the second round of the playoffs.

Tuukka Rask, Pekka Rinne, Martin Brodeur, Brian Boucher, Semyon Varlamov, Roberto Luongo, and Brian Elliott did better after wins than after losses.  Three of those 7 made it to the second round.

So what does all this mean?  Given the sample size, nothing at all.  But it is interesting to talk about on an off day, right?  Right?

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The Penguins are an unusual team.

Not really a finesse team, actually composed of high energy foot soldiers who play a vertical, smash-mouth game, with three exceptional precision centers and four defensemen who can bring it.

Their backchecking discipline is fleeting. It’s here, it’s there, it’s gone. Fleury faces more high percentage shots than most goaltenders of on elite teams. He’s going to look bad at times as a result, since plays in our end develop quickly and we are often playing desperation defense, leaving our feet, etc.

He’s like Fuhr in a way (although not nearly as good, of course), abandoned to his own reflexes in unpredictable fashion – we backcheck and pick up the trailer on period, leave the high slot gaping in the next – which often win out, because he’s got such quick feet, glove, and is so quick post to post.

He is not the world’s greatest angles player, but with our scattered team defense, a Gilles Meloche type would get burned coming out too far to cut down the angle.

I’d say Fleury is a remarkable athlete who has a superb glove and is fantastic at taking away the lower part of the net.

In today’s game, he’s elite.

by rudemechanical on May 9, 2010 1:03 PM EDT reply actions  

Just want to say one more thing on the subject:

There is far too much emphasis or focus in hockey, the way it’s covered, I mean, on say, the first 40 feet of one’s own zone, and the last forty of the offensive zone.

It’s analyzed as if it’s table hockey. Even the camera has no patience – you rarely see the reason a play occurred, it’s development and what made it possible can happen 3-4 plays in advance. But because it’s a motion sport and faster than football, those patterns dissolve into others.

What happens is, people analyze it based on the final 40 feet or so. This is why goaltending doesn’t get understood.

To make a football analogy: if I’m a linebacker, and I have a great defensive line, I’m going to have time off the ball to pick up speed and get to the QB or runner. If my line stinks, those guys are going to be on me and I’m gonna be on my heels. This is actually grasped in football, it’s even rudimentary.

In hockey, a guy like Brodeur is called “the greatest goalie ever” with a straight face from commentators who are supposed to know better. Never mind that his “defensive line” is so good at slowing the “runner” down, the opposition enters the zone at a crawl, is left with bad ice to shoot from, and is not in position to get rebounds (much like we’ve dealt with when it comes to Halak).

Now, not saying Brodeur isn’t a very good goalie, or that Halak isn’t, but to base one’s judgment of a goalie out of context of team defense is just ridiculous. Goalie’s are NOT pitchers. They are symbiotically linked to their team’s defense.

Why the analysis on this is so off the mark and primitive miffs me, and it’s also irritating. The wrong conclusions are drawn because no one pays attention to what happens in the neutral zone and high in the defensive zone.

by rudemechanical on May 9, 2010 1:14 PM EDT reply actions  

agree

in general you would think that a team would tighten up and play better in all facets after losing – goalie included. It’s all interconnected.

by Okaye777 on May 9, 2010 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

It’s funny you should say that goalies aren’t pitchers because goalies are symbiotically linked to their team’s defense, because a pitcher’s value is also largely tied to his team’s defense. The difference is that the pitcher actually has control over a few things—strikeouts, walks, and home runs—whereas a goalie has little control over anything that happens to him.

The analysis of these things is getting a lot better, but you’re still not going to hear it on TV, not for a long time at least.

by JustinM on May 9, 2010 6:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

was just going to say this

But I’d add batted ball type – and am unsure on homeruns. I’m sure you know that’s a debate topic in sabrmetrics.

by zeke5123 on May 9, 2010 8:41 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Not as much as a goalie is. Because the pitcher DOES have more control, he’s not as vulnerable, especially if he has swing-and-miss stuff. I am aware of the advanced sabermetric statistics to try and better evaluate pitchers relative to their defense, but it’s just not at all as conjunctive a relationship.

The fact is, there is no similarity between goaltenders and pitchers, except in the most superficial way, and yet goalies are evaluated as if they’re pitchers. First of all, the game starts when the pitcher decides to throw the ball. Right away, comparisons are completely ridiculous.

by rudemechanical on May 9, 2010 9:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

Fluery isn't an elite goalie

YET — but he will be. He has absolutely unbelievable skills and athletic ability, makes some saves that no other goalie can make (e.g. the one last night when he swept the puck away with his stick after the dive). He has so much upside with improvement in his initial concentration and stick-handling skills (when he can actually learn not to lose his stick). I used to shudder every time he went behind the net, but he’s dramatically improved, and I see Brodeur skills in his future.

The previous comment is very preceptive—how often is Fleury left out to dry by the D-men? But would you rather have our D — which is an intrinsic part of the offense — or Montreal’s? I really have appreciated Hal Gill in this series, but he adds nothing offensively, unlike LeTang, Gogo, Gonch, or Leopold (you might criticize the Poni trade, but Leopold more than makes up for it).

by phineasfog on May 9, 2010 1:47 PM EDT reply actions  

Also...

Goalies are known to mature later than skaters. Yes you may have a Cam Ward like rookie phenom for a Stanley Cup run, but usually goaltender is a position you have to mature into to become truly elite. Fleury is still VERY young. He has plenty of time to grow into that elite status and he seems to be on the right road so far.

by OSU34 on May 9, 2010 2:52 PM EDT reply actions  

Yeah, that whole “goalies mature later” might be true but it’s not by much. Good goalies, defined as those who have 20k or more minutes played in their career (i.e., they were good enough to stick around), peak at around age 25 and decline from there. Obviously, individuals are all going to be different, but that’s the trend.

by JustinM on May 9, 2010 6:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

He has the best playoff record in the last 3 years

Of all the remaining goalies in the playoffs he has he best win- loss record. in the final analysis that’s what counts.

by Outcast on May 9, 2010 3:29 PM EDT reply actions  

Playing on a team with both Crosby and Malkin had nothing to do with that, I suppose? And the team’s defense was undoubtedly stronger last year.

by JustinM on May 9, 2010 6:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don’t buy that Fleury isn’t elite.

Compared to what?

He was crucial to them winning the Cup in his second year, and his presence in his first year wasn’t incidental to them getting to the Cup final.

If Fleury isn’t “elite”, who is?

by rudemechanical on May 9, 2010 4:36 PM EDT reply actions  

people are always going to question Fleury’s status as an elite goaltender. From his days wearing yellow pads and in the Canadian youth team, he has developed a reputation for being a dodgy and inconsistent goalie, capable of making a big save one moment and falling asleep for the next two.

Whether it’s a result of the Pens style of play which makes goaltenders face more high percentage shots and one on ones or it’s down to Flower himself, the label’s been slapped on him and it’ll take years for that to go away.

Guys like Hasek, Roy & Brodeur are unquestionably elite, they hardly ever seem to have a bad day in the office and they have this “mystique” about them that they are unbeatable. Even if it’s just imagined. As of now, only Halak, Rask & Miller seem to have that “mystique”… Even if Flower is the more successful goalie.

After about a year and a half, I've finally got around to giving myself a profile. Yay me!

Just so I never have to answer this again. I'm from Singapore so whenever you see me online, I'm either sleep deprived or just waking up.

by Alighieri on May 10, 2010 2:41 AM EDT up reply actions  

Fleury’s an elite athlete. I think the jury is out as to whether he’s an elite goaltender.

Elite goalies you can depend on to be there when the team around him falls apart are extremely rare. I think Vokoun’s really the only one in the game right now that you can count on, year after year, to be consistently ridiculous when his team doesn’t deserve it. Before him, Hasek.

I don’t want to add too many more people to that list because an astonishing amount of what most analysts see as skill is actually nothing more than luck. In that regard, a GM could probably always get away with pulling a Philly to save money for other positions. Goalie skill isn’t discernible enough to warrant paying almost any of them $5M or more.

by JustinM on May 9, 2010 6:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

oh yea, volkoun, slipped my mind for a bit…

After about a year and a half, I've finally got around to giving myself a profile. Yay me!

Just so I never have to answer this again. I'm from Singapore so whenever you see me online, I'm either sleep deprived or just waking up.

by Alighieri on May 10, 2010 2:42 AM EDT up reply actions  

Interesting that Fleury has the second-lowest GAA after a loss. Niemi’s is better of course, but most goaltenders allow more goals than Fleury after a loss. And other little things — his positions, the look in his eyes, his confidence in press conferences — make him seem especially strong after a loss.

Also interesting is his bounce-back after huge losses — the 5-0 games where he gets pulled, etc. He seems to respond especially well after those games happen while other goaltenders might get demoralized.

So to me his bounce back ability is not unique meaning that he’s the only one, but I think it’s safe to say that he is better than most goaltenders at bouncing back. It’s one of the things that makes him special.

by Cari on May 10, 2010 9:29 AM EDT reply actions  

The kid definitely has resolve.

by JustinM on May 10, 2010 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

A stat that is standing out to me is that of the goalies that have a much lower GAA (a difference of at least 1 G) after a loss then after a win he has the lowest GAA after a win by far, basicly the other goalies in that list “bounce back” better because their stats are way worse then Fleury’s after a win, so to me he’s actually more consistent then most of the bounce back guys.

There is a knack to flying: it's learning how to throw yourself at the ground and miss.

by Sid the captain on May 10, 2010 5:19 PM EDT reply actions  

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