A Little Help Please: Sid and Geno's Line Mates
by GoPens! on Jun 13, 2010 3:57 PM EDT
Email
PrintWe all know that the Penguins don't have the best wingers in the world. One can only dream of the number of goals and points Crosby and Malkin would rack up if they were flanked by two world-class snipers. Yet since we don't have those players on our team (and the salary cap makes getting them nearly impossible), we'll probably spend at least the next couple of years continuing to dream. What we can do now, however, is compare the line mates that Sid and Geno skated with at even strength this year and try to figure out if one of them actually had a sizable advantage in quality over the other.
Let's jump...
Using the line combination data that I found at this phenomenal site, I recorded the line mates that Sid and Geno saw most often. While there were dozens of combinations in which Bylsma used them both over the year, it would be better to focus on those pairings with which Crosby and Malkin spent the most time. For Crosby, his top three line combos accounted for 37.38% of his total even strength time on ice, while Malkin's top five line combos accounted for 35.21% of his total even strength time on ice. For this analysis, I wanted to get each players % of total even strength time on ice as close as possible, and 37.38 and 35.21 were as close as I could get given the data. I also did not want to use any lines that a player spent less than 4% of even strength time on ice with because that is negligible in the long-run.Here are the line combos by percentage:
| Crosby ES TOI% | |
| Guerin and Kunitz | 22.59 |
| Dupuis and Guerin | 8.41 |
| Dupuis and Kunitz | 6.38 |
| Malkin ES TOI% | |
| Fedetenko and Dupuis | 15.89 |
| Crosby and Fedetenko | 5.63 |
| Fedetenko and Ponikarovsky | 5.21 |
| Crosby and Guerin | 4.44 |
| Fedetenko and Talbot | 4.04 |
Now that we know how much time Malkin and Crosby spent with their respective line mates in question, I'm going to use GVT as a quick and dirty indicator of overall quality (for those who'd like to know more about GVT, check out Tom Awad's part I, II, and III). I added the GVT of each player to get a line GVT, and then I multiplied that number by the fraction it constituted of the entire ES TOI to get an adjusted line GVT. For example, Bill Guerin and Chris Kunitz have GVT's of 2.8 and 6.2 respectively, and added together, you get a 9.0 line GVT. Then you multiply by the fraction of their percent relative to the total percentage (.6043, which is 22.59 divided by 37.38), which gives you an adjusted line GVT of 5.4387 (9 x .6043).
Repeating those steps for each line in question and adding up all the adjusted line GVT's gives us this:
| Crosby | Malkin | |
| Total Line Adjusted GVT | 10.57 | 13.08 |
The final difference is pretty significant: Malkin's total line adjusted GVT is 24% higher than Crosby's. However, this should also be weighed against the other trend the data indicates, namely that Malkin did not have as predictable a pattern of line mates as Crosby. Because Crosby's top two line combos are 31% of his even strength TOI while Malkin's are only 22%, it's clear that Malkin was being shifted around by the coaches much more. This hampers the development of chemistry among line mates and might also have other negative impacts that aren't being recorded.
Yet even with these considerations in mind, I'm not sure that they would entirely make up for the difference in total adjusted line GVT. It seems that, at the very least, Malkin and Crosby were on the ice at even strength with equal line mates, and Malkin might have even had the better of the deal. The argument that Malkin had a down year in part due to his line mates might not hold as much water as previously thought.
62 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Great post.
Though, if you’re comparing the two players’ linemates, it seems that you might consider throwing out Malkin’s totals while with Crosby (though this statistical stuff is a bit over my head, so maybe I shouldn’t be making critiques of its use). Or, perhaps, you could look at the linemates as individuals, rather than as pairs?
Regardless, a very interesting and beneficial read. I can see why they promoted you.
Hey, an out is an out - unless you're Mario, in which case it's probably two outs. -UtesFan89
Hard work always beats talent if talent doesn't work hard.
I agree. I’d like to see Malkin’s totals without Crosby in the mix. Because although it (surprisingly) seems like Malkin was out with Crosby 10% of the time, it’s not a ‘usual’ pairing. Besides which, Malkin plays wing when he’s on with Sid, and the Sid-Geno situations are usually a little different from normal situations.
Anyway, I’d be interested to know how Malkin’s total changes without Crosby in the mix.
Go, Shero, Go!!! And also Brian Burke.
Anyway, I’d be interested to know how Malkin’s total changes without Crosby in the mix.
Without Crosby in the mix, Malkins adjusted line GVT will be much lower than Sid’s. The difficulty in scratching Crosby from Malkin is that I’d have to fill the void with line combos that Malkin saw about 2% of the time in order to keep the total around 36% of total even strength time on ice. I think that these combinations are negligible in the long run, and I was trying to only compare the line combos that each player spent a good deal of time on ice with.
I do see your point, however, PopRocks. I just can’t think of a less cumbersome way to try and work around it.
Author at Pensburgh.com
I just can’t think of a less cumbersome way to try and work around it.
Which is exactly why I took the passive approach, rather than just figuring it out for myself ;)
Go, Shero, Go!!! And also Brian Burke.
wg1of5,
Thanks a lot for the compliment.
As long as Malkin plays with Crosby, it won’t make much of a difference to analyze lines as individual players or as collective units (though I think I did a good bit of both in the post). Because Crosby’s GVT is more than twice as large as the next closest player on the team, he’ll have a big impact in an analysis like this.
I didn’t want to eliminate the time Malkin plays with Crosby because it’s a significant part of his even strength time on ice. Since keeping the total ES TOI percentages close together is a priority (because the comparison of the adjusted rates depends on their similarity), eliminating the time Malkin plays with Crosby would have skewed the data. Part of the reason this exists is because Malkin didn’t play with the regular line mates that Crosby did this season.
Author at Pensburgh.com
someone said a Ryder for Staal deal. I doubt it. But if you want to do it, be my guest.
Join the NLL community at http://www.nationallacrosseleagueblog.blogspot.com/
Talk about Boston sports at http://www.bestbostonsports.com/
by bestbostonsports on Jun 13, 2010 6:33 PM EDT reply actions
I cannot begin to describe to you the strength with which I hold the conviction that this is a very, very bad idea.
Hey, an out is an out - unless you're Mario, in which case it's probably two outs. -UtesFan89
Hard work always beats talent if talent doesn't work hard.
I told you its dumb
Join the NLL community at http://www.nationallacrosseleagueblog.blogspot.com/
Talk about Boston sports at http://www.bestbostonsports.com/
by bestbostonsports on Jun 13, 2010 6:48 PM EDT up reply actions
i respond to this with a full hearted “HELL NO.”
STAAL FOR SELKE. SIDNEY FOR EVERY OTHER ONE OR JUST THE HART AND THE MESSIER LEADERSHIP AWARD. THAT IS ACCEPTABLE.
by katielynn906 on Jun 13, 2010 7:13 PM EDT up reply actions
someone at SCOC
Join the NLL community at http://www.nationallacrosseleagueblog.blogspot.com/
Talk about Boston sports at http://www.bestbostonsports.com/
by bestbostonsports on Jun 14, 2010 1:18 AM EDT up reply actions
I have some familiarity with statistics, but not sports statistics. Is there anything you can do with comparing the Penguins’ performance when Geno is playing with Staal versus when they are not playing together? You may need to go back to two seasons ago to find enough data to run anything.
Glad you’re enjoying it Justin.
The problem with Malkin and Staal is that there’s so little time when they’re on the ice together at even strength. Judging by eye from the statistics on the line combo site, they played together only about 6-12% of the time. It’d be tough to extrapolate from that data, and even if Malkin did better with Staal, you’d have a tough time proving that it was evidence of a real difference and not just random fluctuation.
Author at Pensburgh.com
instantrimshot.com
STAAL FOR SELKE. SIDNEY FOR EVERY OTHER ONE OR JUST THE HART AND THE MESSIER LEADERSHIP AWARD. THAT IS ACCEPTABLE.
by katielynn906 on Jun 14, 2010 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions
go to the website. click the button. find a use for it in everyday life.
STAAL FOR SELKE. SIDNEY FOR EVERY OTHER ONE OR JUST THE HART AND THE MESSIER LEADERSHIP AWARD. THAT IS ACCEPTABLE.
by katielynn906 on Jun 14, 2010 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions
i know, right?!
STAAL FOR SELKE. SIDNEY FOR EVERY OTHER ONE OR JUST THE HART AND THE MESSIER LEADERSHIP AWARD. THAT IS ACCEPTABLE.
by katielynn906 on Jun 14, 2010 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions
I like this one too.
The Pens will be back.
by PensAreYourDaddy on Jun 14, 2010 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Alternative cricket sound at instantcrickets.com
The Pens will be back.
by PensAreYourDaddy on Jun 14, 2010 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions
WINNER!
STAAL FOR SELKE. SIDNEY FOR EVERY OTHER ONE OR JUST THE HART AND THE MESSIER LEADERSHIP AWARD. THAT IS ACCEPTABLE.
by katielynn906 on Jun 14, 2010 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Crosby & Malkin linemates
GoPens, Another great article, thanks. I believe that next season must see the advent of a new youth movement. I hope several of the following players are promoted or signed in free agency: Tangradi, Jeffrey, Letestu, Johnson, Lovejoy, Mormina (FA), Despres, Bortuzzo, Strait, Engelland and Sneep. I should also like to see the Pens draft McIlrath. I am not suggesting that all of them need to be promoted at once, rather that they all get a good long look and at least 2 forwards and 2 defensemen be promoted. The last player brought up to stay was Golagoski and before that Letang and Kennedy (who now have been up almost 3 years). Thee kids need to produce at the NHL level or be traded before they despair of ever having a career with te Pens and want out. Since Letang, the Pens have promoted fewer prospects than any team in the NHL.
Thanks a lot for the compliment stoopidful.
I think that part of the problem the Pens have had with promoting prospects is that they’ve either traded them away or given up the draft picks to get them in order to snag a rental player or two for the playoffs the last couple of years. As far as the players you mentioned, I’m really high on Letestu, Tangradi, and Lovejoy. I think they all can contribute at an NHL level, and I’d like to see them inserted into the lineup sooner rather than later.
Overall, I’d like to see the Pens use their farm system a lot more in the future, especially because Todd Rierden runs a system that is almost identical to Bylsma’s. Getting guys used to procedure early on might have some benefits in the long-run we’re not realizing now.
Author at Pensburgh.com
Dustin Jeffrey and Simon Despres
GoPens, Dustin Jeffrey two seasons ago was asked to center the WBS third (checking) line with James and Wallace. He did a great job. Last season he was asked to reinvent himself and play left wing on a line with Letestu and Johnson. Again he did far more than exspected and became the team’s leading scorer. Dustin was great in juniors as well, but was a late draft pick. This kid can score and produce at wing or center and is highly versitile.
Simon Despres has excelled in juniors this year. I do not think that a final year in juniors will help him. However, he cannot play in WBS because of his age. Since the Pens lack defensemen, he may be the answer to part of the problem if he can cut it in camp. He looked good last year.
I admit I haven’t looked too far into Jeffrey. I’ve just assumed he’s not super because the Pens didn’t use him this year as a replacement.
As to Despres, I’m excited to see how he holds up in the majors. Hopefully he matures quickly.
Author at Pensburgh.com
Another excellent article. Very thought provoking.
I also did not want to use any lines that a player spent less than 4% of even strength time on ice with because that is negligible in the long-run.Here are the line combos by percentage:
One issue that I have with drawing any meaningful conclusions from this is that less than 4% is considered negligible, and yet Geno’s 2nd most common set of linemates only made up 5.63% of his total. Is 5.63% that much more significant than the <4% that we are throwing out? This is not your fault, it is the data you have to work with, but to me it just further emphasizes what you said, that Geno had virtually no consistency when it came to who was on his line. This can be taken two ways, that the inconsistency of linemates contributed to Geno’s inconsistency, or perhaps the other way around, that Geno’s play prompted Bylsma to feel that he needed to shuffle things around a bit more than he otherwise would have.
Another question that comes to mind is whether Poni’s GVT was inclusive of his whole season or just his time with the Pens?
The Pens will be back.
by PensAreYourDaddy on Jun 13, 2010 11:07 PM EDT reply actions
Also, what is your source for GVT? I downloaded the All-time GVT year-by-year spreadsheet off puck prospectus and the numbers are a little different (kunitz 6.8, guerin 3.1). Using their numbers, I actually come up with more of a disparity with Malkin at 15.62 and Crosby at 11.41. The thing about that is that 9.6 of Malkin’s total is coming from his time with Crosby (along with either Feds or Guerin), and that only accounts for 10.07% of Geno’s total ice time. I’m not sure if it’s fair to say that Malkin played with better linemates overall when this 10% is having such an impact on the analysis. It might be more fair to point out that the one real common factor on almost all of Geno’s line combinations was Feds, who had GVT of 0.8.
The Pens will be back.
by PensAreYourDaddy on Jun 13, 2010 11:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Thanks a lot for the compliments PAYD.
Regarding the 4% cutoff, I figured I’d have to pick some arbitrary number to serve as a lower bound, only because I didn’t want to be including line combos that were 0.56% or something crazy like that. But you’re right that there’s not a whole lot of difference between the 4% and 5.63%.
This can be taken two ways, that the inconsistency of linemates contributed to Geno’s inconsistency, or perhaps the other way around, that Geno’s play prompted Bylsma to feel that he needed to shuffle things around a bit more than he otherwise would have.
This is a very good point. I was pretty disappointed as I was mulling through the data because I never fully realized how unstable Geno’s line mates were this season. I don’t put a ton of weight into my analysis; the only thing I can say more confidently now is that I don’t think the gap between even strength line mates for Crosby and Malkin is as big (or even present) as I previously thought.
Another question that comes to mind is whether Poni’s GVT was inclusive of his whole season or just his time with the Pens?
Poni’s GVT was his GVT for the whole season.
Also, what is your source for GVT?
I use the GVT info at Behind the Net. I’m sure why the numbers on the all-time list are different, though I’m happy the differences aren’t too big. And Crosby’s time with Malkin is definitely skewing the data, only because Malkin was more unstable this year. But for Malkin, that time with Crosby was more significant for him than it was for Sid, which is one legitimate inference I think we can make from this data.
Author at Pensburgh.com
But for Malkin, that time with Crosby was more significant for him than it was for Sid, which is one legitimate inference I think we can make from this data.
Hm. I don’t mean to beat a dead horse (what’s the point? it feels no pain!), but we can’t really make the inference until we see Malkin’s numbers without Crosby (and possibly Crosby’s numbers with Malkin) — which I suspect will support the inference. We should be careful about drawing conclusions without the actual data in hand.
Go, Shero, Go!!! And also Brian Burke.
My only point in stating that was to highlight the lack of consistent line mates Malkin had. Because Malkin was all over the place, while Crosby spent almost 40% of his time with three lines, the minutes Malkin spent with Crosby were more valuable to Malkin than to Crosby.
Let me know though if I’m not being clear enough…
Author at Pensburgh.com
Ah … different definition of ‘value’. Kind of a weird definition, but I’ll let you have it :)
Go, Shero, Go!!! And also Brian Burke.
Not that I ever mess with people for the sole purpose of messing with them … or anything like that … Right, Katielynn?
Go, Shero, Go!!! And also Brian Burke.
NO NOT AT ALL
/EXTREMESARCASM
jayyy kayy, i loves you.
STAAL FOR SELKE. SIDNEY FOR EVERY OTHER ONE OR JUST THE HART AND THE MESSIER LEADERSHIP AWARD. THAT IS ACCEPTABLE.
by katielynn906 on Jun 14, 2010 7:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Malkin, Crosby, et al.
Constant line and pairing changes have plagued the Pens since Eddie O. Bylsma is no worse than Eddie or MT. As a former player, I can tell you that knowing your pair mate’s play, intensity and thoughts on positioning are invaluable. The same was true for forwards. For example, wait a while until Letang and Goligoski or Leopold develop together on the PP. They may make everyone forget Gonchar. There is nothing more important than the development of mutual understanding and knowledge to make for teamwork. A good example is the Sedin twins who have played together their entie lives. There is no better example of teamwork through familiarity. One must weigh such “chemistry” against the shock of a different pair or line upon another team’s game plan and the advantage of having all players somewhat familiar with all others. I do not know how to use statistics to demonstrate this, but it certainly reflects upon the coaching of a team for better or for worse.
The other thing I wanted to point out is that a player may play better with certain players on his or her line, but the truly great player makes his pairing mate or line mates better. Interesting in that regard was the Play of Ryan Whitney as a defensive player. The only time he was very effective on defense was when he was paired with Letang in the 2008 series against the Rangers and Philadelphia. They were a shut down pair when Gill and Scuderi were giving out goals wholesale. Why?? Letang’s speed permitted Whitney to cover less territory? Letang’s great exit pass took the heat off of Whitney who then was not the only player on the ice with a good exit pass? Whitney never played well again. Chemistry? Knowledge? Familiarity? Complementary skills? All of the above in my view.
I think part of the line juggling is just a result of the lack of complimentary players for Crosby, Malkin, and Staal. Having definite line combos would certainly help a players develop chemistry and enhance their skills, but coaches can only stick with combos so long as they’re producing at an acceptable rate.
That being said, I definitely would have liked Malkin to have more consistent line mates throughout the season. I’m sure that would have helped him when he was struggling at times throughout the season.
Author at Pensburgh.com
I just went to nhl.com, by the way, and this post is highlighted under nhlsocial with the link to here. Just thought I’d let you know.
Awesome! Well done, GoPens!!
The Pens will be back.
by PensAreYourDaddy on Jun 14, 2010 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions
considering how dark mellon is, it’s even more admirable.
STAAL FOR SELKE. SIDNEY FOR EVERY OTHER ONE OR JUST THE HART AND THE MESSIER LEADERSHIP AWARD. THAT IS ACCEPTABLE.
by katielynn906 on Jun 14, 2010 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions
GP and I are starting a mutual admiration society…wanna join?
The Pens will be back.
by PensAreYourDaddy on Jun 14, 2010 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions
sure! i like being a part of things. i actually have some pens pictures i wanted you to take a look at…
STAAL FOR SELKE. SIDNEY FOR EVERY OTHER ONE OR JUST THE HART AND THE MESSIER LEADERSHIP AWARD. THAT IS ACCEPTABLE.
by katielynn906 on Jun 14, 2010 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Cool! From the Canes game?
The Pens will be back.
by PensAreYourDaddy on Jun 14, 2010 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions
only went to three games last year (because i am broke). rangers, devils, and canes. i’ll shoot you a link soon. i’m still working on the postseason gameday threads post (damn lsat got in the way), so i’ll get that started after that post goes up. =)
STAAL FOR SELKE. SIDNEY FOR EVERY OTHER ONE OR JUST THE HART AND THE MESSIER LEADERSHIP AWARD. THAT IS ACCEPTABLE.
by katielynn906 on Jun 14, 2010 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions
sad face. =(
at least you got to go to two?
STAAL FOR SELKE. SIDNEY FOR EVERY OTHER ONE OR JUST THE HART AND THE MESSIER LEADERSHIP AWARD. THAT IS ACCEPTABLE.
by katielynn906 on Jun 14, 2010 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Yea but they were both in South Florida, which isn’t nearly as cool as being at the Igloo (I assume it’s cool; I’ve never been).
Author at Pensburgh.com
i only managed to go once. but it was awesome being part of the home crowd and not in that tiny, tiny away crowd group, haha. the whole experience was great.
STAAL FOR SELKE. SIDNEY FOR EVERY OTHER ONE OR JUST THE HART AND THE MESSIER LEADERSHIP AWARD. THAT IS ACCEPTABLE.
by katielynn906 on Jun 14, 2010 7:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Except for overtime, right? But we won’t talk about that.
The Pens will be back.
by PensAreYourDaddy on Jun 14, 2010 8:36 PM EDT up reply actions
.9 SECONDS
,9 SECONDS
GIPWGINABGIPEANBQ
STAAL FOR SELKE. SIDNEY FOR EVERY OTHER ONE OR JUST THE HART AND THE MESSIER LEADERSHIP AWARD. THAT IS ACCEPTABLE.
by katielynn906 on Jun 14, 2010 8:44 PM EDT up reply actions
you’re faaaaaaaaaamous.
STAAL FOR SELKE. SIDNEY FOR EVERY OTHER ONE OR JUST THE HART AND THE MESSIER LEADERSHIP AWARD. THAT IS ACCEPTABLE.
by katielynn906 on Jun 14, 2010 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on PensBurgh
Related FanShots on PensBurgh
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Latest Puck Daddy - NHL from Yahoo! Sports
- Tuesday’s Three Stars: 4-spots for Kovalchuk, Spezza; who throws a strawberry on the ice?
- Henrik Lundqvist survives Zdeno Chara shot to back of head for save of year candidate (VIDEO)
- Red Wings set NHL record with 21 straight home wins; Steve Ott: ‘That’s a phenomenal feat’
- Puck Previews: Red Wings go for wins record; Brian Boyle hates Bruins; Ruutu out 3 weeks
- Blindside assault leads to brawl, suspensions in Austrian Hockey League (VIDEO)
Latest stories and headlines from NHL.com
- Thunderbirds end seven-game home losing streak with 4-3 SO win over Rockets
- Nabokov makes 37 saves, Parenteau scores winner as Islanders beat Jets 3-1
- Ellis' third-period goal for Predators sends Blackhawks to 9th straight loss
- Matt Needham scores in final minute as Blazers edge Oil KIngs 3-2
- Bruins-Habs on NBCSN highlights Wednesday's action
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
