The Penguins' Powerplay With and Without Gonchar
With the discussion of whether or not to re-sign Gonchar gaining momentum as July 1st gets closer, I wanted to look at just how valuable he really is to the Penguins' powerplay. Some say that he's the only reason we had a competent powerplay this year, and we should work to re-sign him at almost any cost. Others think he's aging, and that Letang and Goligoski are ready to take up the reigns on the man advantage unit. Each side has valid points to make, but I think the debate will get a bit less foggy if we look at just how valuable Gonchar was this past year.
A quick note on stats: I counted up the opportunities and powerplay goals as they were recorded in the game summary for each game on the Penguins' website. Because of scorer differences, the totals are slightly different from those reported at NHL.com, but they're not enough to change the overall thrust of the numbers.
Results after the jump.
I collected data on powerplay opportunities and powerplay goals for four scenarios: at home with Gonchar (29 games), at home without Gonchar (12 games), on the road with Goncahr (33 games), and on the road without Gonchar (8 games). I've summarized the results in the following table:
| With Gonchar | Without Gonchar | |
| Home |
26-for-105 (24.8%) |
6-for-47 (12.3%) |
| Road |
18-for-122 (14.8%) |
1-for-32 (3.1%) |
The results are pretty striking. At home, the Penguins more than double their rate when they have Gonchar at the point, converting close to a 25% clip. On the road, the change is even more dramatic: the Penguins are almost five times better on the powerplay when Gonchar is in the lineup. Combining these numbers together, you get the data in the following table:
| With Gonchar | Without Gonchar | |
| Total PP Success Rate |
44-for-227 (19.4%) |
7-for-79 (8.9%) |
Overall, the numbers seem to pretty clearly argue their point: Gonchar is critical to the Penguins' powerplay success. They're more than twice as good with him than without him. If Gonchar was with the team the entire season, and the powerplay finished with a 19.4% success rate, that would have been good enough for 8th in the league. For reference, the second ranked team had a 21.8% clip this season.
This is pretty strong evidence that Shero needs to work hard to re-sign Gonchar. Letang and Goligoski were nowhere near as effective as Gonchar was on the powerplay, and one summer's rest isn't enough time to make up that much ground. And since every effective powerplay has a defensemen at the point with a lethal shot and a lot of experience, it is definitely in the Penguins' best interest to go ahead and bring back Sergei Gonchar for at least next season.
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I don’t think Gogo will ever be able to replace what Gonch does. Letang might, but he needs at least another year. I have never been impressed with Gogo, but I could be wrong about him
if letang could hit the net more
we wouldnt need sarge back
by Chris Schlitz on Jun 5, 2010 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions
I still can’t back that kind of signing. I said it yesterday and I’ll keep saying it – 2 years, $5.5 max. That’s my take.
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In that case, no. I can’t see the Pens giving him that.
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in NHL 09
I brought Gonch back for 1 year at 4 mil. He’s the leading the league in points so far
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Do you think the Pens would be better off going after a young UFA like Martin rather than extending Gonchar who, while still effective, is entering the twilight years of his career? It just seems like Gonchar is being presented as the only option.
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by Great Ice-Pectations on Jun 4, 2010 12:57 PM EDT reply actions
I’m not sure if Martin could fill the specific role Gonchar does.
Gonchar’s value to the Pens power play starts with him usually lugging the puck up the ice and gaining zone entry. Obviously without zone entry there’s no chance of scoring for a puck-control PP like the Pens. Malkin does it some, and is adequate, but Gonchar is the #1 option to get the puck inside the blueline in terms of frequency and success.
From there usually Crosby or Malkin will have the puck near the half-wall down low, and play it back to Gonchar to change the angles/depth and force the PK’ers to adjust. Then Gonchar rotates to the middle, passes to the other point man or hands it back to Crosby/Malkin for another look.
That’s basically the Pens power play strategy in a nutshell. Gonchar is a central figure, and guys like Goligoski and Letang simply haven’t been good enough rushing the puck through neutral. This could be another area for Crosby to perhaps improve on too, though he CAN do it, he often tries to beat all 4 defenders and it mostly results in a turnover and zone clear.
To be honest, I’m not quite sure how good Martin is at each of these pretty specific attributes (stickhandling, decision making, hard low shots, precise passes). I know he’s a good player and defenseman and may be a fit, but I would hazard to guess he isn’t as skilled as Gonchar would be, for the purposes of running/directing the PP.
Not to be Devil’s Advocate, but are you at all concerned about Gonchar’s declining defensive play, or do you think it was an aberration last season? Despite the disparity in Martin’s offensive abilities, wouldn’t improved defense compensate?
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by Great Ice-Pectations on Jun 4, 2010 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions
You have a valid point. As I said in another post, they’re still using Gonchar as a 25-27 minute a night player and he’s showing that he isn’t at the same level. I’d use him about 22 minutes maximum a night, if at all possible.
Good point. It’d be nice if he would pull a Lidstrom and take a home town discount to stay with the Pens.
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by Great Ice-Pectations on Jun 4, 2010 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree with Hooks on a lot of what he’s said so far.
My hesitation as far as signing Martin to quarterback the power play would be that it seems counterproductive because that is supposed to be letang’s job in the future. Since he and goligoski will only get better with in-game practice, asking Martin to take their place seems like it’s delaying the inevitable and stalling their development.
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Plus I think Martin is basically a glorified Leopold: a good skater, a good puck mover, good passer, good instincts, decent in his own end but not overly physical, not overly great without the puck, etc.
I’d rather see the Pens set sights on a guy like Michalek or even Willie Mitchell if he’s 100%, more of a defensive minded guy to replace the hole still left from Gill/Scuderi.
I tend to agree with you Hooks about Martin as a player. The biggest positive I can say about him is that I remember hearing Brodeur refer to him as the Devils’ best defensemen.
The biggest negative is that he’s not the overwhelming presence we’re looking for in our defensive zone.
Pittsburgh sports all the way
I think some of those numbers could be misleading. I believe some of the time without Gonchar was also when Malkin was injured. I dont think the difference in the numbers can completely be linked to Gonchar. I believe the time that Malkin missed early in the year was that West Coast road trip and I think the pens had 1PP goal the entire trip. I think Gonchar was out as well then. I’d be curious to see those numbers when Gonchar was the only player missing from the PP.
Either way there is a noticable difference with Gonch and without. The Pens wont find another Gonchar when it comes to being good on the PP though. I can understand 1 more year, but I wouldnt give him a longer deal than that. I think Sid and Geno could both be much better on the PP and hopefully there is improvement next season. That is one part of Sids game that I think could be better.
by genomachine-O on Jun 4, 2010 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Maybe another project for GoPens, but I believe the Pens were at a similiar rate in the 2008-09 season without Gonchar.
You’re right there are other factors, but I believe there is more than enough data to show there’s a meaningful correlation to when Gonchar is in lineup (good PP) to when he is gone (not so good PP).
I didn’t take note of the overlap games because I was worried about the sample size comparison. Since there are only 20 games without gonchar, removing those that malkin missed as well could drop the total beyond significance.
Of course malkin’s absense will have had an effect on the success rate, but the difference with and without gonchar is large enough in my opinion for us to draw conclusions involving gonchar.
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“to the naked eye”…it has been abundantly clear that the PP functions MUCH more smoothly WITH Gonchar. Go Pens! data backs this up — the differential is hard to overstate.
the questions are $ and term AND opportunity cost (ie, who do the Pens NOT sign b/c they have re-signed Gonchar)
IF the Pens re-sign 55 at anything close to what that article suggested ($4.2M/year over 5 or 6 years), what will the rest of the D corps look like?
Its quite possible it means that Lovejoy is foisted into a Top 4 role, and someone like Mottau is in the 3rd pairing, w/ Engelland as the #7. That’s just not deep enough.
then there is the over-35 risk, which, imo, is way too large given Gonchar’s injury history
offer him $3M for 1 year w/ an understanding that if he plays well and stays healthy the team would renew the K the following year, if he wanted to stay in Pittsburgh.
if he accepts, following Hooks, play him fewer minutes.
hopefully that’d help him be more effective. and it would give Letang and GoGo more TOI.
I might say that 20 games is too few for a good sample size anyway.
Of course, I’m ready for the team to begin the Letang era anyway.
Considering that the powerplay is already a rare event in a 60 minute game, and that there are only 20 games to work with without Gonchar, I wouldn’t bet too much on the long-term predictability of these statistics.
My only real goal was to quantify what we already knew: namely, how numerically valuable Gonchar was to the powerplay.
Pittsburgh sports all the way
Insofar as we can actually tell, of course.
I have little doubt that these numbers hold some amount of truth. I just don’t know how much we’re really going to miss it, considering the PP didn’t seem all that good with him.
It’s kind of like the old (possibly apocryphal) story about Branch Rickey and Ralph Kiner. Kiner wanted a raise, so Rickey asked Kiner where the Pirates had finished this season.
“Last.”
“Well, we can finish last without you, too,” and Rickey traded him to the Cubs.
At times the powerplay didn’t look good even with Gonchar, but I’m pretty sure every powerplay in the league has moments when it just looks bad. Considering that we went 19.7% with Gonchar in the lineup, I’d say we finished with an above average powerplay; certainly one that was beneficial to us in the long run.
Of course, had he played all 82 games, the powerplay might have been worse than 19.7%, or it might have been even better. I’m just more nervous now than I was previously about the prospect of not retaining Gonchar.
Pittsburgh sports all the way
We all love Gonch. I think we can all agree that without him, there’s no 2009 Cup.
I think we can all also agree that him playing on one leg after Ovechkin tried to cripple him makes him a local hero.
But at some point, the rest of the team — especially the D corps, and the young “offensive defensemen” we’ve collected in particular — needs to grow up and start taking over his responsibilities. Speedy young forwards are already starting to exploit Gonch’s older legs, and the decline is only going to accelerate.
“Gonch is our quarterback” eventually has to pass from our lexicon. It may be true now, but repeating it as he becomes more of a defensive liability as he ages will only make it less of a truism and more of a cliched and empty koan that we repeat to excuse the lapses.
All the while, we aren’t making Letang and Goligoski (and maybe even Lovejoy) get through the growing pains they need to thrive on the powerplay. So instead, we use Gonch as a crutch.
A five million dollar crutch.
1 year at $3.5m, 2 at $3 per with NO no trade clause. We have other resources to develop and other needs to meet.
I think that’s a little harsh. Gonchar finished 5 less PP points than Mike Green, who lead NHL defensemen in this category, and who played 20 more games than Gonchar. Gonchar also had the 3rd highest points/game for defensemen (behind Green and Duncan Keith, both Norris finalists). Gonchar’s more than a crutch, he’s arguably the best defenseman in the NHL to run a powerplay. Bold statement, but if you look at the numbers, including the ones above in this post, it’s clear that Gonchar is still very valuable and makes a team’s PP a lot better.
Is he a 25-27 minute guy anymore? No. Did age/injuries make him look bad in the playoffs? Yes.
If Letang/Goligoski could replace what Gonchar did, the Penguins would let him go. But they can’t. I’m not saying over-pay the guy, but I am saying the cap’s expected to go up about $2 million dollars. If there’s a way that Gonchar is willing fit into the team’s cap outlook (would have to be a 2 year deal max, and minimum dollars like $3-4 million) than I think it would be more than worth it.
Sure Gogo and Letang might not be as good at Gonchar on the PP, but I dont think there are any players out there that can do it as good as Gonch.
The powerplay will just have to adapt without Gonchar. Sid and Geno will have to find ways to be more effective on the PP. I see the value in having Gonchar back, but I’d only want him for a year. I dont want to see 4 or 5 million dollars to go to a guy who can only play on the PP and is a liability on D.
by genomachine-O on Jun 4, 2010 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t think he’s as much as a liability as Pensburgh nation may believe. Sure we all have that Travis Moen goal in our minds, and there were other specific incidents that Gonchar didn’t play well on, but he did have the best plus/minus of any Pens defenseman in the playoffs while playing more minutes than anyone else and according to behind the net stats, Gonchar did it against the stiffest competition of Pens defensemen.
“Liability” seems to say he isn’t adequate defensively, which is far from the truth. It’s true that he can’t keep playing 25-27 minutes a night every single game too, but to suggest he’s shot and a complete defensive non-factor doesn’t do justice to the level he can (and did) still play at for most the season.
Don’t forget as well that out of all the defensemen who played a majority of the regular season with us, Gonchar saw the toughest competition.
He wasn’t phenomenal at defense this year, and with his age and injury concerns, he’s not going to be a shutdown type of guy. But he did more than what we ask of him given the circumstances.
Pittsburgh sports all the way
well I think for maybe one more year you would be correct. Gonchar was not as bad defensively as I made it seem. However a new deal for Gonchar longer than one more season I think could fall into that category. I’m hoping he’ll take a 1 year deal and no more than that. I dont think spending 8.5 million between Letang and Gonchar is a good long term strategy.
by genomachine-O on Jun 7, 2010 7:17 AM EDT up reply actions
Hooks, it doesn’t like you and I are too far off. Money-and-length-wise, anyway.
I’m not saying he’s not valuable. I’m saying his value is declining and will continue to do so and the team can’t continue to lean on him. That’s just a function of age. Sure, he’s had injuries. But any of us over the age of 30 can attest that age doesn’t make you less injury-prone or recover any quicker.
Gonch didn’t have his first 50 point season until he was 25 with substantial parts of 5 NHL seasons in the bag. Goligoski is will be 25 this year with 2 NHL seasons (and a 3-game cup of coffee) and Letang is 23 with three seasons (and a 7-game stint). They can’t do what he does now, but their skill lines will intersect, and it will be sooner rather than later.
by RuthenianCowboy on Jun 4, 2010 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions
PP efficiency is not worth all the goals against Gonchar was responsible for this past season. Gogo will take his place as the PP Qb, since not only is that the role he’s played on every team he’s been a part of, but Gogo actually has upside, while Gonchar is rapidly declining.
PP efficiency is not worth all the goals against Gonchar was responsible for this past season.
Gonchar didn’t have a phenomenal defensive season, but his performance needs to be weighed against the reality that he constantly saw the other team’s best players. And a 10.5% difference in powerplay efficiency can be the difference of 32 powerplay goals in a season, which is enormous considering we only scored a total of 51 powerplay goals this year.
Gogo will take his place as the PP Qb, since not only is that the role he’s played on every team he’s been a part of, but Gogo actually has upside, while Gonchar is rapidly declining.
The numbers seem to indicate that neither Gogo nor Letang are ready to lead the powerplay at a rate even remotely close to Gonchar. And to my knowledge, Gogo has only been on the Penguins, so he doesn’t have a reservoir of experience from another team he can draw on. Does he have upside? Yes. Is he ready to lead an NHL powerplay? No.
Pittsburgh sports all the way
And to my knowledge, Gogo has only been on the Penguins, so he doesn’t have a reservoir of experience from another team he can draw on.
I was referring to his pre-NHL level development. Every team he played on therein, including at Wilkes-Barre, he was the PP QB.
As for Gonchar, my whole thing goes back to the amount of money and years he wants. It’s just stupid to pay a guy who’s getting increasingly less useful on everything except the PP that amount of money. I’d rather let Gogo take over and get a chance to develop while using that spare cash to improve the rest of the team.
by SlayerGhaleon on Jun 5, 2010 2:35 AM EDT up reply actions
I don’t think Gonchar will be unreasonable when discussing the terms of his contract with the Penguins. Hopefully they can get him signed for a couple of years at a reasonable price.
The only point I was making with this post is that he’s extremely to the power play, and without him, we’ll be in for a serious drop in efficiency.
Pittsburgh sports all the way
I don’t think Gonchar will be unreasonable when discussing the terms of his contract with the Penguins. Hopefully they can get him signed for a couple of years at a reasonable price.
They’ve been trying to do that since over a season ago. No dice. I doubt anything changes now.
by SlayerGhaleon on Jun 5, 2010 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Those numbers are telling, but...
…imagine if Letang and Gogo are given a training camp to QB the powerplay to develop some chemistry and tendancies with the players on the powerplay. Then Gonchar is out, someone is asked to step up and fill his shoes, which is impossible. Why not give Letang and Gogo an entire season to allow the PP to adapt to their styles, rather than asking them to try to emulate Gonchar’s techniques?
I would bet that any team with Gonchar as the PP guy drops off significantly when he is injured because no one can do it like him. Let others do it their way, and the results will be there.
I don’t believe Letang and Goligoski struggled because they tried to imitate Gonchar unsuccessfully. From what I remember, they struggled because they didn’t pass the puck well, were indecisive, couldn’t get shots through to the net, and had trouble bringing the puck through the neutral zone. Those really aren’t variations in style: they’re fundamental skill sets for a defenseman on the power play.
I have a lot of confidence in the potential of both Letang and Goligoski. With more work, they could be a great defensive tandem in the NHL for years to come. But right now, the numbers pretty clearly indicate that without Gonchar running the power play from up top, our success rate drops by more than half.
Pittsburgh sports all the way
I’m not too crazy about it because we already signed Letang and Goligoski to multiple year contracts. They’re offensively oriented defensemen, and I’m sure part of the consideration in signing them to the length of time we did was that they’ll be able to run the powerplay in due time.
If we use Leo instead of them, it would be the same as if we went out and got Paul Martin to run it: we’re delaying the inevitable and stalling their development.
Pittsburgh sports all the way
besides
if the dont resign sarge our pp will have a different look more then sarge they need a big body to stand in front of the goalie and stop making all the stupid prettty passes they like to make like malkins no look backwards pass
you have to give them time
it also was at the point in the season when they lost gonchar they also lost malkin for like 10 of those games which added to the problem. put stall on the first pp have him stand in the crease and let malkin qb the second and actually have two pp lineups instead of one for a minute and 45 seconds and the other to come out and skate the puck up the last 15 seconds
also i like when sid and geno play together
but they turn into to many passes and try to make the perfect play everytime
Gonchar, Letang, Goligoski, Lovejoy and Leopold
The possible PP defensemen available, and I exclude Sneep and Despres as I have not seen them on the PP enough to discuss them, are Gonchar (if signed), Letang, Goligoski, Lovejoy (if signed) and Leopold (if signed). As they are right shooters, Letang and Lovejoy ought to play the left point. Both are responsible defensively and Letang has the speed and skating ability to prevent shorties. That leaves Gonchar, Leopold and Goligoski, left shooters, to man the right point.
Gonchar has become a weak link in the Pens’ defense and no +/- will prove otherwise as he has all the offensive opportunity to play with Malkin’s and Crosby’s line who score often. In fact, if the PP points are disregarded, he and Letang were roughly even offensively at even strength, although Letang was for the most part playing behind lesser forwards against the opponents’ top scorers. However, he has become a shorty waiting to happen as the Moen goal demonstrated despite Letang’s almost superhuman effort to prevent it.
Goligoski has a lot of potential on the right point. He has played it before in college and at WBS with Lovejoy. His somewhat strange skating style gives him good speed; however, like Gonchar he is a defensive liability.
Leopold is a good, if not great, skater. He has played right point on the powerplay in the NHL. He has an effective shot from the point and can pass well. He is a responsible, if not extraordinary, defender.
Thus, choices being limited, Letang will be paired with one of these three on the first power play and Lovejoy will be paired with another of them depending upon who is signed. because playing a left shooter on the left point is just stupid and ought not to be done absent an emergency. It eliminates a one timer from the left point and allows the defense to become oriented against the Pen’s right side.
With the emergence of Letang offensively on the PP in the playoffs, perhaps the left point ought to be the so called quarterback. After all as a right shooter he can pass on his forehand to the left half wall more easily than a right shooter.
Just food for thought. Letang and Orpik will become the shut down defenders and Letang and whoever will run the PP. Folks, if Letang ever plays up to his full potential, Gonchar will become just a fond memory.
Additionally, all defensemen on the PP need to be mobile as their mobility will bring about significant movement while still being able to prevent short handed goals by the opposition.
My choice? Letang and Leopold for the first pair and Lovejoy and Goligoski for the second as I do not believe that the Pens will be able to sign Gonchar to a reasonable contract.
My choice? Letang and Leopold for the first pair and Lovejoy and Goligoski for the second as I do not believe that the Pens will be able to sign Gonchar to a reasonable contract.
This is why I asked about Leopold on the PP.
I agree—even though the Penguins would be better w/ Gonchar, they aren’t going to be able to sign him.
That got me thinking Letang and Leopold on the #1PP.
i agree sign leopold
then get a shut down dman so it looks like this
Letang – Orpik
Gogo – ??? (hopefully Hamhuis)
Leo – Lovejoy
Engelland 7th dman
f it
id rather have engelland and lovejoy as the 5 and 6 at least it will bring some toughness to the d
by Chris Schlitz on Jun 6, 2010 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions
I’m not sure Engelland or Lovejoy would bring toughness to the D. They’d both be in their first year of starting full-time in the NHL, so they’ would be more mistake prone than even Letang and Goligoski were this season.
On top of that, Lovejoy weighs 215 while Engelland weighs in at only 202. They have the potential to be solid defensemen, but I wouldn’t count on them for a lot of toughness.
Pittsburgh sports all the way
Gonchar, Letang, Goligoski, Lovejoy and Leopold
I suspect the blue line line-up will be Orpik/Letang, Eaton/Lovejoy, Leopold/Goligoski, Engelland. If you want toughness at an affordable price, bring back Joey Mormina who had a great shut down season with Lovejoy in 08-09 with WBS and is tough and big and can skate.
I agree with Hooks...
IF Gonchar comes back, he can’t be relied on to play 25+ minutes.
With Orpik, Letang, Goligoski and some combination of Eaton, Leopold, Lovejoy (whoever comes back), and a free agent or two, his minutes could be cut to closer to 20/gm. Cut down on those 2-min shifts on the PP, reduce/eliminate his PK duties and his overall play (and theoretically health) should be better. Of course this depends greatly on whom they re-sign, promote and acquire…

























