In Lou We Trust's Post on Paul Martin
John from ILWT had a post up about Paul Martin's efficiency way back in May. Definitely something positive to read for people who still feel the price may have been a bit steep.
over 1 year ago
FrankD
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Next time, they should just print a book! Goodness..
by Wags24 on Jul 1, 2010 4:34 PM EDT reply actions
Yeah, John’s one regret in life is that the alphabet only contains 26 letters. But I say that jokingly of course. The dude knows his stuff.
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Fantastic read. Really just confirmed most of the things I thought about him beforehand but it’s great to hear it from the people who see him on a game to game basis.
There are two theories on hitting a knuckleball - unfortunately, neither of them work.
Thanks. The beauty of all of those charts and numbers is that if you didn’t see him, you can get a sense at what his impact was on the ice. Shots against drop when he’s on the ice, plain and simple. He’s excellent with his positioning and his decision making in his own zone. No, he’s not a shot machine, but he’s quite good with the puck.
I still wish the Devils kept him especially given how much the Pens spent, but it’s clearer and clearer he wanted to be a Penguin. I mean, he possibly (key word: possibly) rejected more money from the Isles (who badly need to spend money).
Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
In Lou We Trust - The New Jersey Devils SBN Blog
by John Fischer on Jul 1, 2010 10:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Hey John, where are you getting your shot data from? I can’t find it at behind the net…
Hockey Blogger at Pensburgh.com
SF/SA? It’s in BtN in rate form, you could back it out knowing how many minutes per game he played (provided) and how many games he played (also provided). It’s probably available on one of the other hockey sites, though.
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by Knee high to a duck on Jul 3, 2010 9:41 PM EDT up reply actions
John, Vic Ferrari found that while D do influence shooting percentage against while on the ice, the effect is small. So the difference between Martin and Mottau from 08/09 in GFON – GAON is probably luck.
The comments are very much worth a read there, too.
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by Knee high to a duck on Jul 3, 2010 9:45 PM EDT up reply actions
I think this is still a controversial topic. Tom Awad has done some great work that demonstrates teams can have a significant effect on shot quality (and thus, S%). Gabriel Desjardins also looked at how defensemen and team strategy affect a goalie’s SV%, and came to the conclusion that both of those factors have a real and significant effect.
Hockey Blogger at Pensburgh.com
Tom Awad has done some great work that demonstrates teams can have a significant effect on shot quality (and thus, S%).
That article deals with teams’ own offensive shooting, as opposed to lowering opponents’ percentage. He makes a pretty good case that shot quality does, in fact, exist, but that’s not the point that Vic’s article addresses.
Gabriel Desjardins also looked at how defensemen and team strategy affect a goalie’s SV%
Gabe’s point agrees with Vic’s – the effect is small, but statistically significant and much more tightly correlated than random noise accounts for. The part about team defense is less relevant, because the entire team is ostensibly playing the same system – the assumption is that the system is what’s driving the shooting quality, rather than the players, since these reductions in shooting percentage follow Hitchcock and Lemaire around wherever they go.
So in summary, I don’t think the idea of individual defenders having an effect on save percentage is controversial – clearly they do and the effect is statistically significant. However, even though the effect is statistically significant, there’s a huge amount of noise from season to season, from whatever other variables are in play (luck, tough teams in the division, whatever). The signal-to-noise ratio in this case is pretty small. I don’t think that’s controversial, either.
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by Knee high to a duck on Jul 3, 2010 10:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Awad’s model can go the other way though. The basis for it is this article by Alan Ryder, who finds that shot quality does exist (uncontroversially), and that teams can lower the average quality of an opponent’s shots (i.e. NJ).
As to the other point, I misunderstood what you were saying. You’re correct that the differences among defenseman are small yet significant, but I mistook you for arguing that teams don’t have any real effect. My bad…
Hockey Blogger at Pensburgh.com
I like this… I always assumed that Martin was gonna re-sign with NJD. The fact that we got him is awesome.
But I’m even more scared about our PP now. Michalek & Martin aren’t gonna give us a lotta punch and with them eating most of our cap space this year, we might have some trouble finding a winger that can.
I'm 21 now... I still feel 20 and I still feel way too old.
Just so I never have to answer this again. I'm from Singapore so whenever you see me online, I'm either sleep deprived or just waking up.
You are a true Pens fan – always find something to worry about.
The Pens will be back.
by PensAreYourDaddy on Jul 1, 2010 6:43 PM EDT up reply actions
have i ever told you that I wake up screaming in cold sweat from nightmares that Sid & Staalsy left us? lol
I'm 21 now... I still feel 20 and I still feel way too old.
Just so I never have to answer this again. I'm from Singapore so whenever you see me online, I'm either sleep deprived or just waking up.
That is a God-awful nightmare!!!
One Who Lives And Breathes All Things Penguins
by PensFanInDenver on Jul 1, 2010 7:11 PM EDT up reply actions
At least we still have Geno and Tanger and Free Candy and Flower and GOGO and well yeah it would suck to lose those two…
That is NEVER going to happen!
NEVER!!!
If anything like that did, I’m shootting the A-hole that did it…
One Who Lives And Breathes All Things Penguins
by PensFanInDenver on Jul 1, 2010 8:31 PM EDT up reply actions
take a number… if that ever happened, i’m fairly sure a lot of us will ape out like those idiots in Philly and burn the Consol…
I'm 21 now... I still feel 20 and I still feel way too old.
Just so I never have to answer this again. I'm from Singapore so whenever you see me online, I'm either sleep deprived or just waking up.
this
most of us have been saying these past weeks that we hoped Shero would address the D
he signed the BEST 2-way defenceman available in Martin
AND
he signed PHX’s Alternate Captain and shot-blocker extraordinare in Michalek
so much happier w/ Michalek > Volchenkov — esp. for less money
a very, very, VERY positive day to be a Penguins fan
A VERY good day, indeed.
One Who Lives And Breathes All Things Penguins
by PensFanInDenver on Jul 1, 2010 10:19 PM EDT up reply actions
To seriously read that
would take more than an hour, ill trust the faithful and say Ray Shero, you are the man. I trust the guy to get us the proper players we need. Hell, Mark Madden even enjoyed our signings today…
It’ll take you 8-10 minutes if you just read it, which I strongly recommend. It’s a pretty nice piece.
Only YOU can prevent idiots from commenting!
by Knee high to a duck on Jul 3, 2010 9:42 PM EDT up reply actions
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