Shooting Percentage And Pascal Dupuis
by GoPens! on Jul 14, 2010 6:49 PM EDT
in Statistics
107 comments
I've looked at how the players from this year stacked up when it came to adjusted^ +/-, penalties, Corsi, and giveaways and takeaways. Now I'm going to look at shooting percentage. And I promise that Pascal Dupuis does have something to do with this post.
I'll be looking at 5-on-5 (even strength) data for this post, and all data was pulled from behind the net. Here are the numbers from this year:
First, Goligoski's case for most underrated player this year has re-gained momentum. He led all defensemen in shooting percentage, and was second in that group in goals/60. Considering that Goligoski had below average teammates this year, he probably would have eclipsed Gonchar in these totals had he been on the ice with better players. Yes Gonchar was great on the power play, but we're paying Gogo only 33% of Gonchar's salary for identical even strength production. Also, props to Letang for leading d-men in shots/60. His S% will go up next year, so expect an increase in both goals and points for him.
As to the forward group, Guerin and Fedetenko continue to trend near the bottom, and it's not a surprise that both of these guys are still without a team for next year. The third line did really well this year in all categories, and it's pretty obvious that Tyler Kennedy really likes to shoot the puck (imagine the damage he could cause if he added another dimension to his shot). Staal's numbers are also really impressive given his circumstances, and I think he could tear it up if he got to regularly play with Evgeni Malkin. Lastly, Crosby is awesome, and Rupp was a big bargain this year.
What about Dupuis? He was second on the team in both total goals and goals/60, ahead of players like Malkin and Staal. He's only 6th in shots/60, but his shooting percentage is third on the team, meaning that he's probably got more shooting talent than he is typically given credit for. When you look at all of this together, Dupuis looks like a top-six forward on our team. I think that the Penguins should consider moving him to that position permanently, especially because he has such a reasonable cap hit. Sure we'd like Zach Parise or Alexander Semin instead, but that simply isn't feasible when Crosby and Malkin are on the same team.
And to provide some further context for Dupuis' credentials, his 1.14 ES goals/60 was 31st among all forwards who played 40 games and saw 10 minutes of ES ice time, ahead of guys like Rick Nash and Henrik Sedin. And his ES S% was tied for 44th in that same group, eclipsing players such as Nicklas Backstrom and Daniel Sedin. Pascal Dupuis might not be winning the Hart trophy anytime soon, but he's proven this year that he can be a full-time top-six forward for the Pens.
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wow... this is really surprising
Can we retire this picture now?
Is it October yet?
Just so I never have to answer this again. I'm from Singapore so whenever you see me online, I'm either sleep deprived or just waking up.
formatting fail...
Is it October yet?
Just so I never have to answer this again. I'm from Singapore so whenever you see me online, I'm either sleep deprived or just waking up.
by Alighieri on Jul 14, 2010 7:23 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Pshhh yeah I would hope so, considering he’ll probably be on the 1st line this year. It’s not like he hasn’t earned it, though. If he works hard and is willing to get dirty, he’ll be fine.
I've told [a 9 months pregnant] Nathalie that she can't have the baby on a game night. I'm not missing a playoff game. -Mario Lemieux in 1993
That’s the 5 o’clock shadow that grew just in the time it took to sketch that.
by PensAreYourDaddy on Jul 14, 2010 10:48 PM EDT up reply actions
whoa. that’s impressive.
chances are that i’ll probably still swear at him sometime next year. sorry, duper, don’t take it personally.
we're not trading jordan staal.
oh man, he was so clutch in that game against the leafs.
we're not trading jordan staal.
by katielynn906 on Jul 14, 2010 9:11 PM EDT up reply actions
I can’t say for sure what the team is doing, but I’m happy you’re digging my stuff. We could send them a fax…
Hockey Blogger at Pensburgh.com
Maybe they have an opening for special assistant to the general manager in charge of statistical analysis.
by PensAreYourDaddy on Jul 15, 2010 12:44 AM EDT up reply actions
In all seriousness, I wish I knew if the Pens are one of the teams that do a lot of statistical analysis. I read that the Leafs and the Canucks are into that stuff, but I’m not sure it’s widespread. Either way, Shero’s made a ton of good moves, and I wouldn’t say a whole lot needs to be changed.
Hockey Blogger at Pensburgh.com
Another Great Article!
Very interesting. I really like Dupuis and thought he was one of the best players and most consistant players this past season for the Pens. Great in Play Offs to—GWG vs Ottawa, came through very clutch.
Glad you enjoy writing as much as I enjoy reading.
-and it’s interesting that no one has picked up Guerin or Feds, but I am not surprised…but I wish we could sign Modano and put him somewhere-I know we need Wingers..but I just like MM.
One Who Lives And Breathes All Things Penguins
by PensFanInDenver on Jul 15, 2010 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Don’t know why that crossed itself off—just side note: would like to see us sing MM but I am sure that won’t happen. Nothing to do with you post—just my thoughts.
keep writing the cool stuf!
One Who Lives And Breathes All Things Penguins
by PensFanInDenver on Jul 15, 2010 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions
If you surround something in – marks, it’ll strike out that passage. Like this.
Much like surrounding something in _ makes it italic and * makes it bold.
THIS!!
One Who Lives And Breathes All Things Penguins
by PensFanInDenver on Jul 16, 2010 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions
I was trying to do work and multi-task and write my comments.
Guess I am not that talented!
One Who Lives And Breathes All Things Penguins
by PensFanInDenver on Jul 16, 2010 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Two hyphens equals strikeout
hyphen Crosby hyphen = Crosby
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by red army line on Jul 15, 2010 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions
If only it was that easy to get rid of Crosby, eh RAL?
by PensAreYourDaddy on Jul 15, 2010 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
One day we’re going to call up Strasburg and Crosby will strikeout for real.
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by red army line on Jul 15, 2010 5:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Not if Sid attacks him early in the count.
In all seriousness, the kid (Strasburg) is unreal with 4 great pitches. If you guys keep Adam Dunn and Harper’s in the bigs within two years, the team will definitely be a contender with Strasburg pitching every 5th day.
I've told [a 9 months pregnant] Nathalie that she can't have the baby on a game night. I'm not missing a playoff game. -Mario Lemieux in 1993
Yes Gonchar was great on the power play, but we’re paying Gogo only 33% of Gonchar’s salary for identical even strength production.
awesome.
and he’s going to get even better this year.
I don’t know how many more categories of play I can look at, but if Gogo comes out in the positive on another one, then I think many will have to admit that he didn’t have close to the bad season many people claim he had.
Hockey Blogger at Pensburgh.com
I know this is a Dupuis post, but thank you for backing up my season-long claim that Gogo deserved better. I’ll continue to say that he deserved to stick with the team the prior season as well instead of heading back to WBS when Gonchar returned.
No problem J. I’m even thinking about putting together a Gogo post in the future that reviews all of the stats I’ve looked at and emphasizes how much of a shaft Gogo got from the fans and the media this year.
Hockey Blogger at Pensburgh.com
Dupuis is the kind of player every team could use 2 or 3 of, but are lucky if they have even one.
that said, i think his S% is due to regress to the mean next year.
His career avg. (all situations; not just 5-on-5) is 9.2% and I think we’ll see something closer to that this year than the 11.5% he registered last year—a change of 25% — which would be 13.5 goals. He scored 12 each of his 1st two full seasons as a Penguin, and 12 the year before: 10 with ATL and 2 with PIT after the trade deadline.
Even if his S% does regress to the mean, I think it can be negated by an increase in the quality of teammates and consistent top-six minutes. I agree with you that I don’t think he’ll have a 9.9 ES S% next year, but his total numbers could rise quite a bit if he gets put in better circumstances.
Hockey Blogger at Pensburgh.com
In the Salary Cap era, finding 4th line grinders is relatively easy, finding top 6 winger is hard. Having tied up a lot of $ in goal, on top 4 D and the Centers, another $4+ mil winger isn’t going to happen. You win the Salary cap game by getting value and being creative finding ways to put players into positions in which they can exceed expectations. We all know Duper can shoot, let’s find out if he can finish.
Meminisse Sed Providere
let’s find out if he can finish
I think his performance this year answered that question with a yes.
Hockey Blogger at Pensburgh.com
A lot depends on how reliable those shooting percentages are. Duper’s SH% (measure NHL style not Euro) looks to be about 3 standard deviations above Feds and Guerin for this past season. That’s a lot. But looking over his past couple years, he seems to be way above his career numbers in SH%. I’m not convinced he can repeat, in fact he’s almost certain to go down next year. On the other hand, it’s worth a shot, even with some regression to the mean, he’s likely to out produce an aging Guerin.
Meminisse Sed Providere
He better outproduce Guerin, because the guy on the other team who is thinking of taking a run at Sid isn’t going to be deterred by Duper. Billy G meant more to that line than just goals and assists.
by PensAreYourDaddy on Jul 15, 2010 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions
which is why i think you might see Tangradi on that line — even if it does require him to play RW instead of LW
from his comments, he doesn’t sound like he’d mind
and as PAYD has already said to that, “smart kid.”
Lol who would mind playing with Sidney Crosby?
Yes, I realize you were joking, but I just had to do it.
I've told [a 9 months pregnant] Nathalie that she can't have the baby on a game night. I'm not missing a playoff game. -Mario Lemieux in 1993
yeah, the point is the not the literal quotation—but rather that he’s talking about being on Sid’s line at all given that Kunitz on Crosby’s LW is the closest thing to set re: forward line combos.
If the kid meshes with Sid, they’ll find a spot for him – RW and all.
It may be a bit of a risk, but hey it’s an 82 game season and DB can make switch up the lines during the game if he wants.
I've told [a 9 months pregnant] Nathalie that she can't have the baby on a game night. I'm not missing a playoff game. -Mario Lemieux in 1993
Damn, you really do pay attention, don’t you.
by PensAreYourDaddy on Jul 15, 2010 8:13 PM EDT up reply actions
I think Sid’s agility and awareness make successfully running him close to impossible. Nonetheless, I do see your Guerin point.
Hockey Blogger at Pensburgh.com
Remember when he “felt” Sean Avery coming up behind him, going for his head, and got out of the way?
I've told [a 9 months pregnant] Nathalie that she can't have the baby on a game night. I'm not missing a playoff game. -Mario Lemieux in 1993
by PensFan8725 on Jul 16, 2010 12:06 AM EDT up reply actions
But looking over his past couple years, he seems to be way above his career numbers in SH%. I’m not convinced he can repeat, in fact he’s almost certain to go down next year.
definitely.
really, really like Dupuis — but he’s not a 1st line winger.
i think he’s better on the 3rd line
primarily b/c he is more of a defensive player
and he has decent size, and a great motor
but the great thing is that he can play almost anywhere
if he’s the Pens best option — as he almost surely will straight out of camp — he’ll likely start on the 1st or 2nd line
but IF the Pens younger players and/or FA addition TBD are able to step up, and let’s hope they are, having Dupuis on 3rd line would mean the Pens forward lines were in great shape
But looking over his past couple years, he seems to be way above his career numbers in SH%.
I looked at this, but it could easily be explained away by his teammates this year. Looking at the three years of data at Behind the net, Dupers saw the best line mates this year, and if he becomes a permanent staple on either the 1st and 2nd line next year, then he might be able to cancel out any regression to the mean due to better minutes and teammates.
Hockey Blogger at Pensburgh.com
that definitely could happen
but as noted above, i think the Pens are hoping they have some guys step up this year
with injuries and line juggling, i’m sure he’ll see at least some time in the top 6 though
I don’t know who would step up to take Dupuis’ spot as a top-six guy though.
Hockey Blogger at Pensburgh.com
If Staal moves up, that’s one spot
Kunitz is a fixture
that’s two (+ 87 and 71) = 4
that means 2 more Top 6 spots
LOTS of candidates
i’ve got a work project this weekend
so may write about this in a post
I looked at this, but it could easily be explained away by his teammates this year. Looking at the three years of data at Behind the net, Dupers saw the best line mates this year, and if he becomes a permanent staple on either the 1st and 2nd line next year, then he might be able to cancel out any regression to the mean due to better minutes and teammates.
I’m old enough to remember Mario Lemieux turning Warren Young into a 40 goal man. Sometimes it’s just a good fit. (damn shame Kehoe was hurt) It’s also possible that Dupper has been underused and appreciated. There’s only one way to find out for sure.
Meminisse Sed Providere
Hopefully the coaches are following our conversation and will try him out as a top-six guy for the year to see who’s right :)
Hockey Blogger at Pensburgh.com
also…if Staal moving to 2C sticks, it would be helpful if some other players could fill Top 6 roles so Dupuis’s defensive prowess (+ decent size + scoring ability) was available to bolster the 3rd line.
Well, Dupuis plays wing, and the third line already has two good wingers in Kennedy and Cooke, so I’m not sure Dupuis has a place on the 3rd line. I view the issue as top-six winger or 4th line grinder, and I’d rather the former.
Hockey Blogger at Pensburgh.com
I'd like to see Dupes in a top 6 role......
Maybe he can play with Crosby again, then the lines would be:
Kunitz-Crosby-Dupuis
Talbot/Tangradi?-Staal-Malkin
"90% of the game is physical. The other half is mental." - Yogi Berra
glad to see the stats back up my backing of dupers. lotta pople gave him greif in the previous two seeasons, he has developed well, hopefully he stickas around for a while
" Lord Stanley, scratch thier names on your fabled cup" Mike Lange june 12, 2009
by oldtimehockey09 on Jul 14, 2010 10:11 PM EDT reply actions
Anyone else think it’s so cool that Dupperman is our plug in winger for all 3 lines?
Is it October yet?
Just so I never have to answer this again. I'm from Singapore so whenever you see me online, I'm either sleep deprived or just waking up.
heck yeah.
these would be darn good lines:
Kunitz – Crosby – Dupuis
Dupuis – Staal – Malkin
Cooke – Talbot – Dupuis
Rupp – Adams – Dupuis
hahahahah, i was so confused at first.
we're not trading jordan staal.
by katielynn906 on Jul 14, 2010 11:29 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd like to see
Dupuis-Dupuis-Dupuis
Dupuis-Dupuis-Dupuis
Dupuis-Dupuis-Dupuis
Dupuis-Dupuis-Dupuis
Dupuis-Dupuis
Dupuis-Dupuis
Dupuis-Dupuis
Dupuis
Dupuis
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by red army line on Jul 15, 2010 12:10 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Hey
My Steven Strasburg, what big ears you have!
What big teeth you have!
What a tail you have!
What big feet you have!
\end Goldilocks reference
That looks like a perfect game and season right there.
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by red army line on Jul 15, 2010 12:37 AM EDT up reply actions
The Pittsburgh Dupuis's
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by red army line on Jul 15, 2010 12:37 AM EDT up reply actions
DuPuis is similiar to Cooke and Kunitz in that you always know he is on the ice becaause he forechecks, he backchecks, he hits, he’s in the scums. I hope that while Shero is biding his time waiting for FA signings to pick up and a decent player to realize that a $1M/1 year contract with the Pens isn’t a bad deal that he gets DuPuis to sign an extension to avoid another Cooke situation.
that a $1M/1 year contract with the Pens isn’t a bad deal that he gets DuPuis to sign an extension to avoid another Cooke situation.
Very good point, though I’m not sure Shero will be able to get him to take a $400,000 pay cut. But either way, I’d be down as well for signing him before his value increases too much.
Hockey Blogger at Pensburgh.com
I think the quote you chopped was two separate thoughts, not a suggestion that Dupuis sign for the aforementioned amount/term.
1. Shero is waiting for an established player to warm up to the idea of playing in Pittsburgh on $1M/1yr deal
and
2. While he is waiting, he should talk to Dupuis about an extension before UFA status is imminent.
Sorry about posting this in advance, but I find the S% of the Noted One possibly the most surprising thing on that chart.
The exciting part is that Letang is bound to improve on that number this year (it can’t really get much worse, right?).
by PensAreYourDaddy on Jul 15, 2010 9:02 AM EDT up reply actions
You’re absolutely right. I have a very good feeling (statistical and gut) that Letang is going to take a massive step forward next year. Same with Gogo.
Hockey Blogger at Pensburgh.com
i think Tanger’s drop in production represents a real fluke drop isn’t it?
Is it October yet?
Just so I never have to answer this again. I'm from Singapore so whenever you see me online, I'm either sleep deprived or just waking up.
That certainly appears to be the case considering his 8.8% in 07-08 and 7.2% in 08-09, not to mention 21.7% in 13 playoff games in 09-10.
by PensAreYourDaddy on Jul 15, 2010 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions
And teammates, since having great forwards who screen the goalie more often make shots from the blue line more deadly.
Hockey Blogger at Pensburgh.com
Among defensemen this season, Tanger had the third lowest shooting percentage. For all the times that we rag for not hitting the net, I never realized how low his success rate was when he actually does hit the net.
I've told [a 9 months pregnant] Nathalie that she can't have the baby on a game night. I'm not missing a playoff game. -Mario Lemieux in 1993
That’s luck more than anything. I wouldn’t read too much into it, especially since it’s so different from his previous year’s S%.
Hockey Blogger at Pensburgh.com
I vaguely remember reading something on BtN that said Crosby was shooting at an unsustainably high rate—that was mid season though.
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by red army line on Jul 15, 2010 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions
I remember that and I think it was actually after the season. They said that because Sid’s shooting % was so high (around 17%, if I remember) that he’s bound to have fewer goals next year. Not that I think that’s true, I think Sid will have to have as many goals next year because of the winger situation, but they have a point.
I've told [a 9 months pregnant] Nathalie that she can't have the baby on a game night. I'm not missing a playoff game. -Mario Lemieux in 1993
I can’t remember whether they used the expected shooting % or not, since raw s% doesn’t factor in that Crosby’s shooting distances were generally pretty short if memory serves.
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by red army line on Jul 15, 2010 5:39 PM EDT up reply actions
I think you might actually be surprised. I remember seeing Sid’s average shooting distance only being a few feet closer to the net than Ovi’s.
Let me look it up.
I've told [a 9 months pregnant] Nathalie that she can't have the baby on a game night. I'm not missing a playoff game. -Mario Lemieux in 1993
Hmm, maybe it was the goal distance. AO almost never scores from in tight, I know that.
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by red army line on Jul 15, 2010 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Here’s some 5 on 5 number from behindthenet.
Pretty interesting stuff they have over there. Basically, OV shot five feet farther out than Sid on every type of shot except a snap shot.
Even though Sid started shooting from greater distances this season, it’s still surprising that Sid and he were fairly close to each other on average.
I've told [a 9 months pregnant] Nathalie that she can't have the baby on a game night. I'm not missing a playoff game. -Mario Lemieux in 1993
Crosby worked on getting closer to the net this season and scoring more dirty goals. Gabe wrote about a piece about a shooter’s ability to control his shot location, and it’s one of the most important factors that determines goal scoring rates. I think this is a big reason for Crosby’s increase this year.
Hockey Blogger at Pensburgh.com
I’m sure that has something to do with it, but I doubt it’s easy to measure without ridiculously specialized equipment.
Hockey Blogger at Pensburgh.com
Besides which, he was kind of pissed off at having to share the Rocket — so you better believe that he’ll be gunning for it next season!
Shero gets an A. Burkie gets a checkmark.
Interesting stuff, as always.
I’m curious – do NHL teams use Corsi numbers for their own scouting, or is that purely for fantasy hockey people?
The Buffalo Sabres must use Corsi since their goalie coach — Jim Corsi — invented them.
And if other teams refuse to use them, then that’s their loss, since they’re extremely valuable when analyzing players.
Hockey Blogger at Pensburgh.com
Cool, that’s what I thought…but wasn’t sure.
by DigitalGypsy66 on Jul 15, 2010 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions
I also forgot to mention that while we are tricking Talbot into thinking the entire regular reason is really the playoffs, can we do the same thing for Craig Adams? Can someone do a quick Stat/60 on him for the last few years regular season vs playoffs?
I can give you his goals/60 for last regular season….
by PensAreYourDaddy on Jul 16, 2010 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Poor Mr Adams. He will light it up this year!
by PensAreYourDaddy on Jul 16, 2010 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions
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