Is +/- Really All Alone?

No worries. You could always watch the game highlights on NHL.com, those are usually very good. Granted they aren’t a full picture but that’s 5-8 minutes of game action, from all the teams in the league. I know I can’t watch every game, so that’s what I do, or if I want to see how some other teams are doing.

How does someone from Singapore become a Penguin fan anyway though? I have to ask…

Yes, I’ve spent a good deal of time trying to coin a new nickname for Alex nObackcheckin. It hasn’t quite caught on yet.

When was this?

You also have to consider what the score was. I bet the Caps were trailing. It’s also not so bad if he takes two defensemen with him.

also applies to staacks, staabs, staafs & staains…

that piece of humor in my original comment is purely intentional :D

Thanks a ton for the compliments PFID. I’m glad you enjoy reading (unlike others down there…)

So you get to just discount AO and Backstrom’s success in one fell swoop?

AO and Nick both benefit from the quality of teammates they see on the ice. I’m not discounting their stats, just speaking about the context in which they earned them. And depending on when we get the statistical models to run these equations, we’ll be able to figure out just how much AO and Nick benefit from the guys around them, including each other.

While ignoring that Crosby played this year for the defending champs?

What does this even mean? We were a very different team this year compared to last year in terms of personnel and other factors. Regardless of which team a player is on, it only matters who he sees on the ice. Crosby had worse teammates than most Caps players.

Crosby had to be playing with other talent.

Have you seen Bill Guerin lately? And Chris Kunitz also went through a streak where he scored something like 2 goals in 50 games. I guess it depends how you define talent. Yet beyond that, the stats tell the same story. Crosby might have been out there with players, but they’re not the same that other guys like Sedin and AO play with.

You don’t think Crosby benefited by having teams have to split their defensive focus and look at Malkin?

He did, but he’s still facing tougher competition than both Backstrom and AO.

(Hint, look at Crosby’s performance without Malkin. Hint 2: Look at who won the Conn Smythe.)

Your first hint is pointless because it’s a very small sample size. We also don’t have advanced metrics for that time period. As to your second hint, Malkin was great in last year’s playoffs, but what does that have to do with anything? Of course Malkin is talented, but he and Crosby rarely skate together, so they don’t get the same benefits that AO and Nick get.

Yeah, Nick and AO are studs and they help each other, but that doesn’t take away from what they do individually, or call into question their greatness.

We’re a while from knowing for sure whether this is true. If you want to believe it though, that’s fine.

You’re trying to punish them for having good linemates, which is lame.

I’m not punishing anyone, I’m just looking at the context in which they see ice time. If two players perform at about the same level of play, but one has much better line mates than the other, why is it “lame” to take that into account? I don’t see why you’re hostile to this idea. The teammates a player has affects the quality of his play, and if you don’t see this, then I’m not sure what to say.

Further, the kind of guy that is good enough to make AO better, by definition, has to be an elite player.

I’ve never stated that Nick wasn’t talented. Any talented player will draw defenders toward him, thus giving OV more space and making him appear better. Whether Backstrom is elite is a different story, which is going to boil down to subjective judgments, so there’s no point in spending a lot of time debating the issue.

Chris Clark and Zubrus didn’t make AO better

Zubrus played with a different Ovechkin than Backstrom, so I wouldn’t count on comparing them. And Chris Clark was injured a lot over the last three years, so that could have an effect too. For the record, I think Backstrom is better than these two, but we don’t know the specifics because our data isn’t as good as it could be.

Hint 2: Look at who won the Conn Smythe.

Which is voted on by the media, who, in the opinion of many, don’t always pick the best or even the most deserving choice. Note that I’m not saying Malkin did not deserve the Conn Smythe, only that there were other players on both the Penguins and Detroit Red Wings who were worthy of being singled out for Conn Smythe contention, like Crosby, Fleury or even Henrik Zetterberg, all of whom had an outstanding playoff in ‘09. Just because someone wins the Conn Smythe trophy doesn’t mean they made the most significant contribution to their team’s championship effort, merely that the media feels that way.

Let us say that Crosby was at 55 % draw success and the Penguins were at 50 % draw success. Therefore, Crosby is a 55%, +5 draw winner. This would show that not only is Crosby effective in the face-off dot in nominal terms, he is also successful relative to his face-off unit, that is, he benefits his team greatly in terms of face-offs.

This is a really interesting idea. I’d be down to see what it produced when applied to the NHL at large.