Kovalchuk on the Pens - what couldn't have been
by CBKWit on Jul 19, 2010 11:05 PM EDT
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PrintNote: this exercise is completely ludicrous, because there was a 0% chance of it happening in reality. But what if...
Although he signed a $100 million contract, Kovalchuk's cap hit is only $6 million per season. That's only $1 million more per season than our new friend, recently signed Paul Martin. What if, instead of shelling out $5 million for Martin, Shero had inked Kovalchuk at $6 million per season? Suddenly, we are not looking for a top line winger, or any forward. We can roll out:
The Koon-Crosby-Dupuis
Kovalchuk-Malkin-Staal
Cooke-Letestu-Kennedy
Adams-Talbot-Rupp.
(Feel free to drop Staal down to 3C, Letestu/WBS player down to 4C, and Talbot up to Malkin's wing)
Of course, then you have a hole on D, 1 million less to play with, and you need another D to replace Martin. Does it work?
For D:
Orpik-Letang
Z-Gogo
Lovejoy-?
You have to consider that the Pens still have to fill a hole at forward, and that's going to cost money. Perhaps it's someone cheap fromWBS around 500K, perhaps it's an outside signee who fetches closer to $1 million. This is money they wouldn't have to pay if they, in my imaginary world, had signed Kovalchuk. The real question becomes, which would you prefer? Martin + WBS player/new third line center or Kovalchuk + cheap D/Engelland. The Kovalchuk option is more expensive by about $1 million, which would only give the Pens $1 million on the year for call-ups/deadline deals.
The Kovalchuk option is sexier, for sure, and it emphatically fills the Pens' top four winger hole. But that D suddenly looks pretty weak, with Gogo in a top 4 role and someone even less experienced/less effective than Lovejoy paired with him. The Kovalchuk option is also much riskier - even though his contract comes off the books if he retires, what if his play declines precipitously in his thirties? Suddenly you've got a cap hit of $6 million for someone who's not contributing AND not much money for defense.
Still, Martin at $5 million vs Kovalchuk at $6? Very tempting to take Kovalchuk with only one million dollars difference.
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its only (sort of) a question, b/c its a dirty contract
but i have faith that the Penguins made the right the decision by focusing on D — they don’t have problems scoring, but their D was pretty porous last year
by Diomedes7 on Jul 19, 2010 11:42 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
That contract will be investigated by the league, no doubt about it. They went after the Hossa deal last year and this one is even worse.
And I’d much rather have the defense. We’ll score goals with or without Kovy.
There are two theories on hitting a knuckleball - unfortunately, neither of them work.
I agree with Diomedes. The Pens GM did the right thing focusing on D. Bottom line is, Jersey is probably paying over 11 million dollars per year for the first 5 years while only having a cap hit of 6 million- that should be illegal. It’s down right dirty.
Think about it this way. Shero came out with 2 D signings pretty much on day 1 of the free agency. Let’s say they went after Kovalchuk instead. So we’re looking at a 3 way between LA, Jersey, and Pittsburgh for Kovalchuk. Kovi delayed nearly 3 weeks before he signed. If the Pens waited 3 weeks for Kovi and missed, they wouldn’t have a shot at Michalek/Martin because they would have already signed with another team 2 and a half weeks ago…. Shero made the right move by NOT gambling with the pens future based on the temptation of signing a greedy forward like Kovalchuk. Instead, Shero focused on the realistic needs of the team in relation to the free agent options- Defense.
by lampshade9909 on Jul 20, 2010 9:21 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
if Kovy had an actual defensive upside…
but this entire transfer saga pretty much just proved to me that Kovy’s pretty much just out for himself… It might get cancerous in the lockerroom with that.
If Kovy was a better rounded player with a better attitude , it might justify the wait but as he is, hell no… I’d stick with tried and true even if swinging for the fences with Kovy’s the sexier option.
Is it October yet?
Just so I never have to answer this again. I'm from Singapore so whenever you see me online, I'm either sleep deprived or just waking up.
All of these are good points
Kovalchuk is certainly not without fault. But he’s also one of the most talented AND productive players in the world, and despite his faults, 6 Million is a bargain for his services. Also, in my scenario above, the Pens still have enough money to sign Z; Kovalchuk is effectively replacing Martin. The point remains however – there’s no guarantee that the Pens land Kovalchuk, and Martin would have been signed by someone else weeks ago.
www.californiagoldenblogs.com
But it’s not really a $6M/year contract. If he retires after 10 or 11 years then it’s more like a $9M/year contract.
After 10 years his average salary will have been $9.5M/year; after 11 years his average salary will have been $8.95M/year. It’s not until the 12th year when he’ll be … 39? … that the payments drop off considerably and the average starts to fall. Yeah, he might play the contract out. But I doubt it.
Shero gets an A. Burkie gets a checkmark.
right
but it’s still a $6 Million Cap hit. Obviously, the Pens could not take on a $9 Million cap hit, so that is moot. But as it stands, it’s a $6 Million hit, and that is extremely reasonable for one of the most talented and productive players in the world.
www.californiagoldenblogs.com
but it’s 6 million in a position that we have a diminished need for compared to our defense. With a guy like Kovy who would compromise our defensive integrity (despite the very significant boost to our offense) it just unbalances the team.
That & the same problem I had with the LeBron James circus is that you end up having teams scrambling and overpaying for middling talent as they panic after losing out on the Wade/James/Kovy. Smart GMs figure out who they have a legit chance of signing & wrapping them up early before they have the time for the market to jack up their values
Is it October yet?
Just so I never have to answer this again. I'm from Singapore so whenever you see me online, I'm either sleep deprived or just waking up.
lebron who now?
we're not trading jordan staal.
by katielynn906 on Jul 20, 2010 8:13 PM EDT up reply actions
its only (sort of) a question, b/c its a dirty contract
just want to highlight this in light of the NHL’s ruling
Shero plays by the rules, so this was never a real option
very true
it was never a real option for many reasons, as I stated above. The gist of the exercise was that Kovalchuk’s cap hit was only $1 Million more than Martin’s, but the emphasis there is on “was”. Now that it’s clear Kovalchuk’s cap hit will be higher, the comparison is especially irrelevant.
www.californiagoldenblogs.com
This!
One Who Lives And Breathes All Things Penguins
by PensFanInDenver on Jul 21, 2010 11:22 AM EDT reply actions
I’m thinking that the poll is pretty conclusive about what we think here… lol
Is it October yet?
Just so I never have to answer this again. I'm from Singapore so whenever you see me online, I'm either sleep deprived or just waking up.
Yep
So very glad things worked out the way they did and that we do not have the Drama…
One Who Lives And Breathes All Things Penguins
by PensFanInDenver on Jul 21, 2010 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Although he signed a $100 million contract, Kovalchuk’s cap hit is only $6 million per season. That’s only $1 million more per season than our new friend, recently signed Paul Martin.
I think some overlook the first part of what you wrote here. Kovalchuk’s (rejected) deal was basically $95 million for 10 years.
Martin’s deal is $25 million for 5 years.
Even though the cap hit for Kovalchuk was lessened with those dummy years at the end, it comes out to being a lot more than $1 million more a year in actual dollars.
Business is booming for the Pens, and with new revenue streams in the new barn they can spend to the cap, but $95 million is a huge commitment, and one many teams probably couldn’t/wouldn’t want to afford. I don’t see them making that to anyone outside of Crosby or maybe Malkin.
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