Goals, Assists, And Equality
It's no secret that there are more assists awarded in the NHL than there are goals scored. This is all well and good, but it raises the question: should we view them as equal? The current system the NHL employs thinks so, as it awards a player one point for a goal and one point for an assist. Yet the data from 2005-2008 suggests otherwise.
Hop on the train everyone, Statville is our next stop...
First, let's look at the goals and assist data from 2005-2008. The data were gathered from this page at behind the net. "Ratio" is simply the number of assists divided by the number of goals. The chart:
Looking at this four year sample (there's no data for this year), it's obvious that goals are more valuable. Why? Because they are more scarce, and the more scarce something is, the more valuable it becomes. It therefore seems silly to treat goals and assists as equal accomplishments. We might be able to get a better estimation of a player if we adjust for this difference.
Here are the top 20 scorers in the league this year:
Now we'll make an adjustment. The average ratio over the four year sample was 1.73. I'm going to multiply a player's goal totals by 1.73 (which gives me Goals^) and add his assists to that number. That will give us an adjusted points number (Points^) and tell us who is providing his team with the most value, strictly in terms of goals and assists. The numbers:
At the very top we see that Crosby and Ovechkin really separated themselves from the rest of the pack this year. It would have made sense for the Hart trophy to have been a tight race between these two, but we all know that wasn't the case. I interpreted this data not as a knock on Sedin but as a boost to Crosby and Ovechkin. Henrik accomplished some great things this year, but that shouldn't have prevented Crosby or Ovechkin from getting the recognition they deserved.
As to the rest of the players, Marian Gaborik, Patrick Marleau, and Alexander Semin all see a big boost in their points^, which makes sense since these guys were some of the most prolific goal scorers this year, and provided their teams with more value than they got credit for. As to those that dropped, Patrick Kane, Brad Richards, and Jumbo Joe took the biggest dives.
Overall, I think the NHL should look into altering their system of how they assign credit for goals and assists. I doubt this will happen though since the league has been doing it this way forever, and wouldn't be happy with all the chaos created by applying this system retroactively. While it isn't the biggest problem or most pressing issue in hockey today, it still is something worth considering, especially since so many people only look at point totals to evaluate the quality of a player. It's not perfect, but it would be a big step in the right direction.
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Comments
Does this mean we take away Sid's Hart trophy from 06-07?
Not quite, as he holds on by less than a half point over Levavalier, though if two players are that close in adjusted points, do you then give it to the guy with more goals?
As always, a fun read, and no doubt one that will spark lots of debate and discussion.
Overall, I think the NHL should look into altering their system of how they assign credit for goals and assists.
I’m not sure that you made your case for this, other than the whole “the more scarce it is, the more valuable” thing. By that logic, shorties and empty netters should count more than even strength and power play goals because they happen less often.
To say that the goal is always more valuable than the primary or second assist ignores that in many cases the goal isn’t going to be scored without the two or three passes that led up to it. If you want to change the system, perhaps an impartial observer should review each goal and determine which was more critical, the play made by the scorer or the passer(s). I’m guessing you might say always the scorer, but if the play involves Sid beating 2 or 3 guys and making a sick pass over to a wide open Kunitz who just has to tap it in, then I have no problem saying Sid’s assist should be considered just as valuable as Kuni’s goal.
by PensAreYourDaddy on Jul 23, 2010 7:28 PM EDT reply actions
First-time poster (Leafs fan, but don't kill me)
Agreed. Yes, goals are more scarce, but the way I see it (and the way I guess the NHL does too) is that goals don’t happen without assists. For unassisted goals, well the goal scorer did most (or all) of the work to get that goal, so no one else gets assists.
Perfect scenario, PensAreYourDaddy. Playmakers, like Sid, are the ones that give us examples of this. Re: Sid beating the crap out of Spezza, but Tanger getting the goal.
What would we have to do to get Crosby on the Leafs...?
Wishful thinking never ends in Leaf Nation
Welcome!
I would agree that scoring isn’t perfect. Another example using Sid was the goal that appeared to be his 50th of the season against the Islanders in the final regular season game at Mellon. Turns out it bounced off Guerin, so he got the goal instead. Now, I get the point that Billy G was down in the dirty area paying the price, but lets face it, he got a goal just for standing there and having the puck bounce/deflect off his body.
by PensAreYourDaddy on Jul 23, 2010 7:46 PM EDT up reply actions
I might come here more often..
It’s hard finding people who will tolerate Penguin and Leaf craziness. Just found out most of the people at PPP support Ovie’s visor + yellow laces vs. Sid’s normalcy and politeness.
he got a goal just for standing there and having the puck bounce/deflect off his body.
Exactly! We were all pretty mad when that goal was anounced. Scoring isn’t perfect, but I can’t think of a better way to award points than how we already do.
What would we have to do to get Crosby on the Leafs...?
Wishful thinking never ends in Leaf Nation
after this year’s playoffs, leafs fans are some of my favorite people. stick around.
we're not trading jordan staal.
by katielynn906 on Jul 23, 2010 9:14 PM EDT up reply actions
except, no. you may not have sidney in a leafs jersey. other than that, we’re ducky.
we're not trading jordan staal.
by katielynn906 on Jul 23, 2010 9:16 PM EDT up reply actions
I thought you’d be more concerned with staal in a leafs jersey?
There are two theories on hitting a knuckleball - unfortunately, neither of them work.
oh, don’t worry, i got that one taken care of. so, we’re good.
we're not trading jordan staal.
by katielynn906 on Jul 23, 2010 9:40 PM EDT up reply actions
That’s relieving. They’ve already got Christian Hanson, I’d rather not have them get another
There are two theories on hitting a knuckleball - unfortunately, neither of them work.
by BobPurkey34 on Jul 23, 2010 10:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Honestly, the only thing I’m worried about is Geno in someone else’s jersey in the future. He may end up being the odd man out because I’m certain Sid is a Pen for life and Staal is more than likely a pretty long term player.
I've told [a 9 months pregnant] Nathalie that she can't have the baby on a game night. I'm not missing a playoff game. -Mario Lemieux in 1993
by PensFan8725 on Jul 24, 2010 12:27 AM EDT up reply actions
Actually, I kind of want half the team in a Leafs jersey. I’m kind of jealous.
But I’m anxiously waiting for the FA class of 2014
What would we have to do to get Crosby on the Leafs...?
Wishful thinking never ends in Leaf Nation
Leafs Fan
Hey, hey, hey, welcome to us! Hey, you guys are beginning to have a really, really good team.
But, you cannot have Sid! Or any of our guys: no Leafs jerseys! LOL
I think the tide is turning for Leafs fans and your future looks bright.
Glad to hear you like the Pens so much, too. Very cool.
Stick around, we are alot of fun. We don’t always agree; we agree to disagree but it’s a blast and you learn alot reading these blogs, too.
One Who Lives And Breathes All Things Penguins
by PensFanInDenver on Jul 24, 2010 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions
Thanks to all of you guys/gals! I’m hoping we can pull a Montreal and see you in the playoffs this year :)
Aw, I should have figured my plan to Sidnap “some” of your players wouldn’t be met very warmly here :P Hey, I can dream, right?
Seriously, I love this team, it’s like my summer home (literally: I become a 100% Pens fan every post-season). Sid may have brought me to the team, but I love all the players. And if by some weird twist in fate brings Sid to another team cough, I’ll still watch and love the Pens for all the other awesome guys on the roster.
And since this is so off-topic, back to the Pens!
What would we have to do to get Crosby on the Leafs...?
Wishful thinking never ends in Leaf Nation. For now, Go Leafs! (and Pens!)
you should come around for the open threads during the season. it’s good times.
we're not trading jordan staal.
by katielynn906 on Jul 24, 2010 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions
I shall
This summer was so boring that I finally decided to stop being so lazy and make an account on SBN.
I’ll be around..
What would we have to do to get Crosby on the Leafs...?
Wishful thinking never ends in Leaf Nation. For now, Go Leafs! (and Pens!)
You’ll have to settle for Caputi (though you didn’t even bat an eye at Skoula). We were only half-sold on the youngster anyhow.
By the way, can we press lemon-law charges for Poni?
I like Caputi. I like Poni too, but the problem for you guys is that he liked us too, he never got used to not playing in Toronto.
I can wait for the rest of the team. Don’t forget, we got Army, who happens to be one of Sid’s best friends..
Watch your backs :P
What would we have to do to get Crosby on the Leafs...?
Wishful thinking never ends in Leaf Nation. For now, Go Leafs! (and Pens!)
I like Poni too, but the problem for you guys is that he liked us too, he never got used to not playing in Toronto.
I wanted to like Poni. He seemed like the perfect player for us in that he was either a drive the net and create traffic or drive the net and score type of guy. Perfect for our system.
He was a bust and I don’t think it was that he wasn’t playing in Toronto. My opinion is that if you can’t find a way to produce on Evgeni Malkin’s line, you’re not doing things right.
Don’t forget, we got Army, who happens to be one of Sid’s best friends..
Don’t get your hopes too high on him. He’s a good 3rd-line player who’ll add some grit to the Leafs and can come up with some huge hits when needed.
As we were discussing before, I think Sid made him look better than he actually is.
So when's October you ask? Well, here's your answer.
by PensFan8725 on Jul 25, 2010 12:25 AM EDT up reply actions
I think the point of the Army reference was to put the fear of God into us that one day Sid will decide to leave us and go play with his best friend.
by PensAreYourDaddy on Jul 25, 2010 12:28 AM EDT up reply actions
Muhahahahaha
I’ve loved Army since his days with the Pens, and I’m expecting performances just a bit lower than the calibre he showed in the Burgh, since he’s not playing with the greatest player in the world.
In short, I’m excited.
Poni’s one of those guys that needs to be comfortable before he starts playing well. His best play for us came when he was on a line with his BFF, Antropov. That’s why I think he needs time to adjust.
What would we have to do to get Crosby on the Leafs...?
Wishful thinking never ends in Leaf Nation. For now, Go Leafs! (and Pens!)
I agree with you. I wish circumstances were such that he could get another shot with us, but that doesn’t appear to be in the cards.
by PensAreYourDaddy on Jul 25, 2010 1:49 AM EDT up reply actions
I think Malkin is a fairly unconventional player and it takes more than a few games to get used to playing with him. On the other hand, once you’ve lost Geno’s trust, I’m not sure if it is possible to get it back.
by PensAreYourDaddy on Jul 25, 2010 1:51 AM EDT up reply actions
That’s a good point.
Geno does kind of have an intricate style, I guess Sid is the guy that’s fairly simple to play with.
But, yeah, totally agreed on the trust issue. I sort of seemed like Geno had trouble trusting himself this year, let alone his linemates.
So when's October you ask? Well, here's your answer.
I wanted to like Poni too. By the end of the season I just wanted him out of town asap.
Colby? I think he fits the Brian Burke mold of Leafs players. He’ll do well in TO.
Follow the Penguins on SBN @ Pensburgh.com and twitter.
Ahem
About that.. I still love the Pens! It would just be awesomer to me to have my favourite player on my favourite team. Takes away from the guilt of cheering for #87, not to mention the boos I get
What would we have to do to get Crosby on the Leafs...?
Wishful thinking never ends in Leaf Nation
This year’s playoffs?
I thought the rest of the world forgot about us after May..
What would we have to do to get Crosby on the Leafs...?
Wishful thinking never ends in Leaf Nation
hahaha, i know. just giving you a hard time, is all. yeah, bunch of PPP guys came over for the open threads. good times.
we're not trading jordan staal.
by katielynn906 on Jul 24, 2010 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Not that one or the other is better, just that if you’re coaching 11-year-olds one is obviously going to impress more.
(visor and laces)
Join me on the Hockey Blog Adventure! (or Twitter.) GO BRUINS! (and Wild!)
by Cornelius Hardenbergh on Jul 26, 2010 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions
don’t worry… We actually like Leafs fans…
If it’s a case of scarcity of goals against assists, I suggest that we eliminate the “hockey assist”… That secondary assist. It places more emphasis on the playmaker. The goal cannot happen without the pass, that is a given, but by reducing the number of assists per goal scored (maximum of 2) we can balance out the significance of the points…
Is it October yet?
Just so I never have to answer this again. I'm from Singapore so whenever you see me online, I'm either sleep deprived or just waking up.
I am confused. Are you saying that they should stop awarding the secondary assist, or are you saying that it is good the way it is with up to 2 assists awarded per goal?
by PensAreYourDaddy on Jul 23, 2010 7:54 PM EDT up reply actions
The problem is that each goal is different. Sometimes the secondary-assist-person (for lack of a better name) makes a huge difference, by clearing the puck or forcing a turnover for example.
What would we have to do to get Crosby on the Leafs...?
Wishful thinking never ends in Leaf Nation
Sometimes they do. Sometimes they only touch the puck momentarily and have nothing to do with the goal.
I’d say it’s probably more likely that the 2nd person DIDN’T have all that much to do with it. Maybe he made a nice play, that’s all well and good, but I think there should only be one assist given out. Either that or fix the point system – I’d be in favor of weighting goals heavier but not as heavy as they did with this article. 1.7 is a little too much and that does take away from the goals, maybe a 3/2 ratio or something. That’s what I use for my fantasy hockey league.
There are two theories on hitting a knuckleball - unfortunately, neither of them work.
Well if 2 goals equal three assists, then each goal is 1.5 assists, which isn’t too far off from my 1.7. I’m open to hearing other ideas for weighting goals, but I think the 1.7 makes the most sense given the overall play of the league the last four years.
Hockey Blogger at Pensburgh.com
Again GP, Great Writing!
Great writing and great stats, always interesting.
And the picture of Sid is to die for…………Oh, my!!
One Who Lives And Breathes All Things Penguins
by PensFanInDenver on Jul 24, 2010 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions
Thanks PFID!
And I put that picture up there for you and Katielynn :)
Hockey Blogger at Pensburgh.com
Just Takes My Breath Away
Thank you.
And I am lucky: my husband doesn’t mind…..
One Who Lives And Breathes All Things Penguins
by PensFanInDenver on Jul 24, 2010 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions
i will always approve of our boys looking awkward in suits.
we're not trading jordan staal.
by katielynn906 on Jul 24, 2010 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions
“but I think there should only be one assist given out”
If there was only one assist given out per goal, then the fact that goals are more rare than assists would no longer be true. You would have a 1:1 ratio of goals to assists, if there was a playmaker, and 1:0 if the goal was unassisted.
In this case, assists would have to be weighted more than goals becuase there would be less of them.
by The Malk-Man on Jul 24, 2010 1:44 AM EDT up reply actions
I agree (and belated welcome). The first one I can think of off the top of my head is Gonchar’s breakout pass to Rupp (I think) that ended up on Kunitz’s stick for a breakaway last season. Without Gonchar’s touchdown pass to Rupp (I really need to find that clip again somewhere), the play would’ve never happened. Gotta give an assist there.
Follow the Penguins on SBN @ Pensburgh.com and twitter.
Leafer87,
Welcome! Thanks for reading.
As I mentioned above, I see your point that goals don’t happen without assists, but that is easily reversed to “assist don’t happen without goals.” Looking at the numbers, the goal scoring part is more difficult, otherwise, more players would get in on the action and stop passing so much.
Hockey Blogger at Pensburgh.com
more players would get in on the action and stop passing so much.
Unfortunately, I’ve played on teams like that.
by PensAreYourDaddy on Jul 23, 2010 8:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Me either, at least not well. Dek hockey was my game.
by PensAreYourDaddy on Jul 23, 2010 9:58 PM EDT up reply actions
I wouldn’t take the trophy away. As you point out, Sid edges out Lecavalier, and my guess is that Sid didn’t have someone as talented as St. Louis regularly skating shifts with him.
I disagree about your comment involving shorties and EN’s. Every goal counts the same regardless of the situation (though you could break this down and figure out which goals contributed more to winning games, but that’s another story). Just because Dupuis scores less goals than Crosby (meaning his goals are more scarce) doesn’t make them anymore valuable.
I know there are times when Crosby or another player makes a sick pass that really wasn’t that hard to pot, though I would speculate that these instances are rare. The sheer fact that goals are harder to come by than assists indicates to me that they’re more valuable. Sure a goal can’t happen without those passes, but those passes mean nothing if the puck never crosses the goal line. I also thought it made intuitive sense that it’s harder on average to score a goal than to get an assist.
And thanks for the props PAYD, I’m glad you keep reading!
Hockey Blogger at Pensburgh.com
Definitely don’t take the trophy away. He didn’t win the Hart for getting assists, he got it for being the MVP.
I would say that ENs are more valuable, because most of the time they are game-winners, or at least they ensure victory.
I love the Sid love <3
What would we have to do to get Crosby on the Leafs...?
Wishful thinking never ends in Leaf Nation
If you want to change the system, perhaps an impartial observer should review each goal and determine which was more critical, the play made by the scorer or the passer(s)
After reading GoPens! post and just by my own observation/opinion, I think goals are more valuable than assists but, man, what you stated there brings a whole lot more of the “outsider” human element than me, and I’m sure a lot of people, are comfortable with.
I’m guessing you might say always the scorer, but if the play involves Sid beating 2 or 3 guys and making a sick pass over to a wide open Kunitz who just has to tap it in, then I have no problem saying Sid’s assist should be considered just as valuable as Kuni’s goal.
Completely agree. And, in that case, I guess we should keep it as is goals are 1 pt. and the last two people to touch the puck before hand get 1 pt. In the end, it all comes down to the scoreboard: it doesn’t matter how pretty a goal was scored or how pretty a setup was- the scoreboard doesn’t give a shit if it was scored from 30 ft out from two pretty passes or right on the door step after a couple of ugly bangs at the puck.
I've told [a 9 months pregnant] Nathalie that she can't have the baby on a game night. I'm not missing a playoff game. -Mario Lemieux in 1993
by PensFan8725 on Jul 24, 2010 12:24 AM EDT up reply actions
i’m not the best at this stuff (i got pity passed in algebra), but i’ve learned quite a bit this summer. thanks and keep at it.
we're not trading jordan staal.
They are never going to adjust how point totals are calculated
Because it screws everything up historically really badly. So it’s kind of pointless to talk about.
This is an online hockey blog. If you’re looking for groundbreaking information of global importance, you might want to venture somewhere else…
Hockey Blogger at Pensburgh.com
and july.
oh, it is so very much july.
we're not trading jordan staal.
by katielynn906 on Jul 23, 2010 11:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Ahem…although I think it’s off by about 3 hours, it’s damn close. I should just post it in my signature.
I've told [a 9 months pregnant] Nathalie that she can't have the baby on a game night. I'm not missing a playoff game. -Mario Lemieux in 1993
by PensFan8725 on Jul 24, 2010 12:34 AM EDT up reply actions
Since people are talking about October, I’m wondering if any of you NY/NJ types are thinking about catching that Columbus Day game against the Devils? We’re going to be in the burgh for the first two games of the season and thought it would be cool to top off the weekend with a side trip to Newark.
by PensAreYourDaddy on Jul 24, 2010 12:48 AM EDT up reply actions
DANG IT, i will probably be out of town.
unless you buy me a ticket. then i will be there.
we're not trading jordan staal.
by katielynn906 on Jul 24, 2010 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Pensburgh collection plate
Alright guys and gals, we’re passing the plate around to get katie to the October 11 game. It’s in Jersey, so tickets are bound to be cheap.
.

by PensAreYourDaddy on Jul 24, 2010 10:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Yo!
PAYD,
I need tickets, too!
One Who Lives And Breathes All Things Penguins
by PensFanInDenver on Jul 24, 2010 10:16 PM EDT up reply actions
DONATIONS ARE TAX DEDUCTIBLE
(think of it as giving me a graduation present. granted, i don’t graduate until may, but still!)
we're not trading jordan staal.
by katielynn906 on Jul 24, 2010 10:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Me Too!
One Who Lives And Breathes All Things Penguins
by PensFanInDenver on Jul 24, 2010 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Please let me know if you do. As you know I live in NJ and would love to meet up with some peeps.
Follow the Penguins on SBN @ Pensburgh.com and twitter.
Very Cool!!
I need to study the entire schedule to see what games we can travel to Pittsburgh to see. I know we will be going to see the Avs vs Pens in Feb, because that is here in Denver. My freind works for the Avs so I can get very cheap and good tickets.
We would like to see at least one or two games at the new Consol. We would also like to see the Winter Classic……..
Thanks for the info, FrankD. I really appreciate it!
One Who Lives And Breathes All Things Penguins
by PensFanInDenver on Jul 25, 2010 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Geez
Must be boring even for sports reporter, when they are going back and updating an article that were posted in May.
Yes, off topic I know.
So when's October you ask? Well, here's your answer: http://www.bored.com/makecountdowns/show.php?id=214817
Ohh while we’re off topic, anyone know how I can turn my signature into a click-able link? Do I simply put in the regular HTML?
So when's October you ask? Well, here's your answer: http://www.bored.com/makecountdowns/show.php?id=214817
It’s the same code you use in the comment box. The way I did it was to follow the regular procedure for linking in a comment, and then when the code appeared, I just copy and pasted that whole thing to my signature page.
Let me know if that was too confusing.
Hockey Blogger at Pensburgh.com
No, no it’s not. I just was hesitant to put in the code because if it didn’t take it, I didn’t want it too look bad!
So when's October you ask? Well, here's your answer: http://www.bored.com/makecountdowns/show.php?id=214817
by PensFan8725 on Jul 24, 2010 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions
if you’re squeamish about playing with links, I could just send you the actual code…
Is it October yet?
Just so I never have to answer this again. I'm from Singapore so whenever you see me online, I'm either sleep deprived or just waking up.
No, I got it already. Thanks anyways though!
I know how to do it, but I wasn’t sure if it took HTML or not…I hate how it looks when it doesn’t. I’m kind of OCD on certain things =/
So when's October you ask? Well, here's your answer.
Once you start weighing more value to goals in calculating points, it opens up an entire can of worms that I don’t think anyone has a reasonable or acceptable solution for. And while I understand that this is all hockey blogdom fantasy, I don’t think GoPens original post argues very well for the desire of such implementing a revised scoring system or that goals should be worth more just because they are scarcer than assists. Nor does it explain how the system would overcome certain problems, For instance:
- empty net goals
- power play goals
- shorthanded goals
- secondary assists (as mentioned above)
- game winning goals
Because whose to say that empty net goals are worth more than game winning goals just because they are more scarce? I know that’s not what was intended, but that’s definitely what’s been presumed with the proposed system. In the end, it really states what was kind of obvious that goals are scarcer than assists.
Perhaps more importantly, it takes away the essence of ice hockey as a team sport. As a fan, I’m okay with goals being used to decide the tie-breaker for the Art Ross, because of the need to create one winner outweighs a more or less arbitrary factor. There is equal significance to be given to playmakers and goal scorers and those in-between. Looking at the revised scoring list, no Sharks fan would believe that Heatley was more valuable than Thornton last season just because he scored more goals.
Patty Marleau lives an erotic life.
Empty net goals, pp goals, etc. don’t create any problem for my system because we expect them to be more scarce. But that scarcity does not imply more value because the opportunities to score PP, SH, GW, or EN goals are much more rare. Of course EN goals will be more scarce: a team might only get 1 minute out of 4 or 5 games to score one. The same logic applies to the other categories.
What you’re also missing is that I’m looking at the relationship between goals and assists, not the relationship between goals. I took as given in my argument that each goal counts as one goal, and I don’t think it makes any sense to weight them differently because of the same reason above. When looking strictly through the goals vs. assists lens, it’s impossible to conclude that assists are of equal or greater value than goals. Since any player can score a goal or an assist in any game situation, there’s no bias toward certain players.
As to Heatley vs. Thornton, Thornton might be more valuable overall since he does things that Heatley doesn’t (like take faceoffs), but strictly in terms of goals and assists, Heatley looks like he did more work.
Hockey Blogger at Pensburgh.com
origin of Goal/Assist value
I’m not a hockey historian, but growing up I was told that assists and goals count as 1 point each because it’s a team sport – i.e. you need to work together to score goals, therefore the team should each get equal value for contributing to that goal (thus the secondary assist).
i get that reasoning, and it works better than the football equivalent. why, for example, does Tom Brady get credit for an 80 yard TD pass to Wes Welker on a 15 yard slant? compared to that, i’ll take the goal/assist equality.
i like the analysis, and it does a good job of stating what every rational thinker assumes – that goals are inherently more valuable than assists. alas, if only sportswriters were rational thinkers…
by mcnulty4prez on Jul 24, 2010 10:29 AM EDT up reply actions
if only sportswriters were rational thinkers…
Let’s dare to dream, shall we?
Hockey Blogger at Pensburgh.com
I’ll hope.
“Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things. and good things never die.”
by mcnulty4prez on Jul 24, 2010 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions
I totally understood that you’re looking at the relationship between goals and assists. But it seems like you’ve gone backwards in your argument. In your original post, you said:
it’s obvious that goals are more valuable. Why? Because they are more scarce, and the more scarce something is, the more valuable it becomes.
With nothing else supplementing the argument. Arguing goals are more valuable than assists based almost solely upon scarcity is not the most bulletproof argument I’ve ever heard. Just because something is more scarce doesn’t mean it’s more valuable. I’m trying to understand this loophole in your argument where an EN, PP, SH, or GW goal can’t also be differentiated on that same logic. If the opportunity to score a GW goal is that much rarer, why is it not proportionately more valuable?
Let’s say that in any given game, one team has 30 shots on goal on average, and you only score on 3 of those shots on average. But of those 3 goals, anyone of which could account for a game-winning goal. But the odds of scoring that game-winning goal are dependent upon the number of goals in that game because you can only have one GW a game. So, if the final score ends up 3-2; then there was a 1:5 probability that the goal registered as a game-winning goal. You see, the opportunity to score the game-winning goal is just the same as scoring a general “goal”; but the probability of scoring that game-winning goal is a lot higher.
Patty Marleau lives an erotic life.
by Will Bulldozer on Jul 26, 2010 2:55 AM EDT up reply actions
Arguing goals are more valuable than assists based almost solely upon scarcity is not the most bulletproof argument I’ve ever heard.
This is the way economics, and life in general, works. Why is Crosby and Ovechkin so valuable? Because their talent is scarce. If you don’t buy the argument, that’s fine, but I challenge you to come up with a better framework and definition for value.
Breaking down the other point, saying that PP or EN goals are more valuable just begs the question: why? You claim that since they’re more scarce, they’re more valuable. But that’s not true, since we know there are fewer opportunities to score these goals given the rules of hockey. If we could normalize for differences in opportunities, we’d see that PP goals and EN would be ridiculously more common than ES goals since they’re much more easy to score. That’s the critical point you’ve been missing: once you normalize for opportunity, that group of goals becomes just as common, if not more, than ES goals. Not normalizing for opportunity (or refusing to consider this point at all) eliminates the relevance of this example.
You absolutely have to control for the differences in opportunity, since the goals and assists analysis doesn’t suffer from that flaw. Any player on any team can earn a goal or assist at any time on the ice. There are no arbitrary rules that limit how many opportunities you get (like there are regarding PP, SH, GW, etc). Those arbitrary rules distort the prevalence of those goals, which alters how we view their value.
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Hold up
This is the way economics, and life in general, works. Why is Crosby and Ovechkin so valuable? Because their talent is scarce. If you don’t buy the argument, that’s fine, but I challenge you to come up with a better framework and definition for value.
How many 80 assist men are there out there?
This season? 1: Henrik Sedin
How many 50 goal scorers? 3: Crosby, Stamkos, Ovechkin.
Based on this “scarcity equals value” argument, Henrik is scarcer than Crosby, Ovechkin or Stamkos, based on talent provided. I can replace crosby’s goal scoring with Ovechkin or Stamkos.
I cannot replace Henrik’s playmaking with comparable levels.
This, of course, is a little tongue in cheek, but I think it demonstrates why this scarcity argument is a little thin.
Citing one player in one season out of four years of data and thousands of players hardly shows that assists are more valuable than goals. Henrik got lucky with the teammates around him this year; Burrows and Sedin did all the leg work.
50 goals is also more valuable than 80 assists, on an individual level.
Hockey Blogger at Pensburgh.com
It was tongue in cheek.
As for:
Henrik got lucky with the teammates around him this year; Burrows and Sedin did all the leg work.
This is complete and utter nonsense. Daniel Sedin was injured for nearly 20 games and Alex Burrows is a career grinder who made good when him and the Sedins tore it up after the all star break two seasons ago. Without the twins, he’s back in Cheechoo territory.
Henrik Sedin and his twin are two of the premier playmakers in the league, and Henrik’s ability to step up his game despite daniel’s injury in a much tougher conference than the other finalists is probably what demonstrated his value to the voters. That and his ES dominance and production through fewer minutes.
Burrows is not a career grinder; looking at his ES points/60 in 2007, 2008, and 2009, it’s impossible to make that conclusion. Of course the Sedins have something to do with it, but no guy records the 16th most ES pts/60 (out of about 500 players) through 82 games because of his centerman. Burrows has legitimate talent.
And Henrik’s play without Daniel was great, but that doesn’t mean anything in the long run. I can hand pick 18 games where Crosby lit it up, but that doesn’t tell me he had a great year. How he performed over the entire season is what counts, and you’re fooling yourself if you think Henrik comes close to the Art Ross if he has no Daniel for the whole year.
Case in point, Daniel Sedin led all forwards this year in ES pts/60, and was 9th out of about 500 in ES goals/60. Yet you want us to believe that a guy who is 29, and has never scored more than 82 points in a season before this year, suddenly became the greatest player ever and turned two chumps into top 20 talent? That is complete and utter nonsense.
Hockey Blogger at Pensburgh.com
Just to anticipate, I’m sure we’ll spend all day disagreeing about what constitutes a grinder. A grinder to me is someone who scores less than 35 points (picking an arbitrary number because I need to). It’s fuzzy around the edges, and there will be examples who make that cutoff seem odd. But here are Burrows’ boxcars the last three years:
07: 12g, 19a, 31p, +11
08: 28g, 23a, 51p, +23
09: 35g, 32a, 67p, +34
Those aren’t grinder numbers in my book.
Hockey Blogger at Pensburgh.com
Problem there is...
You take a sample that includes 2 years with the elite talent and 1 year without, and the year without falls entirely into your definition of a “grinder”. 31 points.
His totals in 06? 9pts. 05? 12 in the NHL, 30 in the AHL.
Not until Burrows met the Sedins did he become a 60 point menace.
Seriously, I’ve been watching this guy for 5 years, he’s a 3rd liner who found chemistry with 2 top tier players.
And yes, Daniel, Henrik’s identical twin is also an amazing hockey player, but his injury allowed Henrik to prove he can score at a greater than ppg rate without his embryonic partner in crime, thus earning more recognition and debunking the “twins suck without one another” rhetoric.
This is the way economics, and life in general, works. Why is Crosby and Ovechkin so valuable? Because their talent is scarce. If you don’t buy the argument, that’s fine, but I challenge you to come up with a better framework and definition for value.
Value doesn’t come from scarcity, it comes from utility. Guys like Ovechkin and Crosby don’t get paid a lot because they’re rare talents, they get paid a lot because they do a ton to help their teams win hockey games.
by David M. Getz on Jul 26, 2010 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Scarcity is also just as important, if not more. Crosby and Ovechkin wouldn’t be getting paid $9M a year if there were 250 other players that provided what they provide. Scarcity is still a big driving force in the definition of value.
Hockey Blogger at Pensburgh.com
In this context the scarcity and the utility are correlated – obviously it’s not possible for 250 guys to do what Ovechkin and Crosby do because it’s not possible for 250 to contribute as much towards winning as those two. Nonetheless, I think the driving force is utility rather than scarcity, although it’d be so difficult to separate them, it’s probably not worth trying to do so.
But originally the idea of value wasn’t in regard to pricing, but in terms of utility, since the case being made is that Sedin wasn’t the best choice for MVP, correct? If that’s the case, deriving value from scarcity might not be the best route since scarcity and utility aren’t one and the same.
by David M. Getz on Jul 27, 2010 9:37 AM EDT up reply actions
Nonetheless, I think the driving force is utility rather than scarcity, although it’d be so difficult to separate them, it’s probably not worth trying to do so.
This would definitely be impossible.
deriving value from scarcity might not be the best route since scarcity and utility aren’t one and the same.
They’re pretty damn close though. Things that being a ton of utility to hockey games are in small supply among NHL guys. This is really basic. The original point was to see how goals and assists are related in the context of hockey. They both bring utility to the table, but goals are more scarce. It thus seems odd to conclude that they’re of equal or lesser value than assists.
Hockey Blogger at Pensburgh.com
Value
I rather think that most adult fans are capable of differentiating between goals and assists in deciding a player’s value which, by the way, includes many more factors. There is no way we can accurately determine a player’s value based upon statistics, particularly over a period of years. You responded to me some time ago that Bobby Orr’s GVT was lower than several other players. However, like Mario Lemieux, Orr spent much of his short career injured to the point that his skill and ability diminished. One can only evaluate a player by watching him, his teammates and opponents. It is clearly subjective. Using this example, viewing Orr’s play in his prime convinces me that he was incomparable, the greatest hockey player the league has ever seen. Statistics failing to make such an evaluation are clearly unreliable. Crosby is presently the game’s most complete player. Given better linemates he may be even better (eg. give him Backstrom and Semin and see how he does or give him 24 games with the southeastern division). Looking at present day players, I value skating above all other skills. If you cannot get there, you cannot pass, defend or score. I know of no statistical way to evaluate skating. Since it is the very base of hockey skills, perhaps we ought to look there first, not exclusively, but first.
Secondary assist are the problem
If there was a way to devalue secondary assist, I think that would be the way to got.. IMO, primary assist and goals should basically get equal weight.. I mean if you have a great passer like Crosby or Sedin or Thornton, they can make an average player very much above average(ie: Cheechoo). But secondary goals are pretty easy to come by. You get secondary goals by being on the ice pretty much.
My ideal way would be to give goals and primary assist as 1 point each, and then secondary assist as .5 points each and see where you end up… that would make keeping stats a much bigger deal, but ultimately IMO would make the points mean a little more.
I mean if you have a great passer like Crosby or Sedin or Thornton, they can make an average player very much above average(ie: Cheechoo).
I know this is a little off topic, but if there’s ever an example of a guy who was a flash in the pan, it’s Cheechoo. In reality, though, he wasn’t even really a flash in the pan because it was really Thornton who was making him great.
So when's October you ask? Well, here's your answer: http://www.bored.com/makecountdowns/show.php?id=214817
by PensFan8725 on Jul 24, 2010 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions
It’s amazing, how certain players—like the ones you listed—can and do make the players around them look so much better……
Of course, Sid makes everyone look better…..
One Who Lives And Breathes All Things Penguins
by PensFanInDenver on Jul 24, 2010 10:20 PM EDT up reply actions
or how about just remove the secondary assist? The idea of half a point wouldn’t sit very well with people… It’s too messy for all of us non-stat monkeys. I’m okay with the idea of people getting points for fluke goals or fluke passes actually…. Whether or not the secondary assist gets removed it’s part of the charm of sports…
Every sport that requires a goaltender tends to have fluke goalscorers… Guys putting the puck in their own net, goals getting waved off… it’s what makes things fun… I’d rather have the opportunity to be angry that Sid’s 51st was given to Guerin instead of everything falling in like butter…
Is it October yet?
Just so I never have to answer this again. I'm from Singapore so whenever you see me online, I'm either sleep deprived or just waking up.
As a whole you may have a point, but not all secondary assists are created equal. Sometimes it doesn’t have much to do with the goal, but sometimes, particularly on the PP the 2nd assist is the whole reason a goal is created (think a bing-bang pass play or drawing guys out of lanes and exploiting it).
And of course sometimes a guy might screen the goalie and help create a goal who doesn’t even get a point out of it —like Billy G did many times this past year.
There’s no easy or simple way around it I suppose. Tough to quantify this in a lot of ways. Scoring the goal is what really matters in the big scheme, to be a little bit obvious and generalize it.
"Game's the same. Just got more fierce."
by Hooks Orpik on Jul 24, 2010 11:11 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I agree some secondary assists are just plain silly and others are a huge part of the play. An example of a less than stellar secondary assist is as follows.
I rec’d that shit.
Hey, some primary assists are crap. Player A’s pass across happens to tip player B’s stick before player C fires the puck in. Player B doesn’t even realize he touched the puck and certainly had no intentions of doing so, but no matter, he gets the assist.
by PensAreYourDaddy on Jul 25, 2010 1:48 AM EDT up reply actions
The Hell?
Anyways confusion aside in the last game of the Ducks-Sharks(ducks fan) series Drew Miller goes into the corner to fight for the puck gets knocked over and Rob Niedermayer pull the puck out and Dishes to Getzlaf at the top of the circles where he proceeded to change the shooting angle and score. Miller gets an assist but did he really deserve it? Sorry for the Ducks example and being from more than a season ago, it just pans to Joe Thornton after the goal swearing and throwing a water bottle because his season was over and I’ll never forget that. Ever.
I rec’d that shit.
So:
The brilliant pass to a blueliner who shoots and is stopped but provides a rebound to a garbage collecter in front is less valuable than the garbage collector’s open net rebound?
Nonsense. The second assist is there to acknowledge playmaking talent. Alex Burrows scores 35 goals, does that mean he’s elite talent? No, it means elite talent is serving him goals on a silver platter.
Jonathan Cheechoo is another great example of assist talent improving goal scoring talent.
There may be garbage assists, but there are garbage goals too.
The brilliant pass to a blueliner who shoots and is stopped but provides a rebound to a garbage collecter in front is less valuable than the garbage collector’s open net rebound?
This is one instance though. This gets us nowhere toward being able to assess whether this is a valuable form of analysis. You need to provide some data that demonstrates assists are tougher to come by than points.
Hockey Blogger at Pensburgh.com
You need to provide some data that demonstrates assists are tougher to come by than points.
Going to assume you meant goals. And no, I don’t.
I need to prove assists are as valuable as goals. And I didn’t even say that. I said Playmaking is as valuable as Goalscoring. And I provided instances where goal scorers are the product of elite playmaking. Kennedy and Geurin weren’t flush with assists from Crosby the way Burrows was flush with goals from Henrik.
Assists help measure playmaking ability. Gretzky=great playmaker. Richard=great goal scorer.
that
picture of crosby is awesome
That place was for diehard sports fans. I only follow my team when they're in the playoffs" - Homer Simpson
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by bestbostonsports on Jul 24, 2010 8:04 PM EDT reply actions
It is.
He doesn’t look as suffocated as he did in suits a few years ago. Maybe he’s getting used to them.
Yes, I’m OCD too.
What would we have to do to get Crosby on the Leafs...?
Wishful thinking never ends in Leaf Nation. For now, Go Leafs! (and Pens!)
Speaking of suits
This story about Crosby put everything into perspective for me.
So when's October you ask? Well, here's your answer.
Sid is awesome!
I’m not completely familiar with the Roethlisberger controversy, not being from Pittsburgh and being totally clueless about any sport not hockey, and even I can see the difference.
What would we have to do to get Crosby on the Leafs...?
Wishful thinking never ends in Leaf Nation. For now, Go Leafs! (and Pens!)
I’m not from the Burgh, but I am a football loving Texan.
It’s no so much about about Roethlisberger (who’s extremely talented, but an absolute douche), it’s about seeing how much Sid is aware and cares about his image as face of the game. Sure, even I’ll admit that his interviews are boring, but at least he gives a shit (more than that, but you get my point lol). That’s one of the reasons hockey is my favorite sport…most (key word being most) of the players are real and down to earth, not the superficial typical athlete type.
So when's October you ask? Well, here's your answer.
“…even I’ll admit that his interviews are boring…..”
I should rephrase that haha,,,it’s just a fact that Sid’s interviews are boring.
So when's October you ask? Well, here's your answer.
Most of them are, but I could still listen to them, just to see which cliche he uses to describe each scenario. Although I wish he’d just give his opinions about stuff sometimes.
What would we have to do to get Crosby on the Leafs...?
Wishful thinking never ends in Leaf Nation. For now, Go Leafs! (and Pens!)
I’d rather he not because he gets ridiculed for the bland stuff he says anyways! I can only imagine what it’d be like if he actually said what he wanted to. I’m sure he’s only like this because he doesn’t want to deal with the word-by-word that goes on each and every day for him.
Some writers always give him shit for being so bland. I can see their point, as he is the face of the game after all, but I can also see it his way. I remember, during the SCF in 09, they gave Sid the day off…it wasn’t a game day, he wasn’t even at the rink (I guess they gave him, Flower, and Geno the day off). Up to that point, Sid had been at every presser (pre-game, post game, practice, off day, everything!) and the one time the whole playoffs that he wasn’t made available to the media and there were at least 3 or 4 articles the next day about how 87 couldn’t be bothered to face the media. So wait, he’s too boring, but you’re pissed when the team excuses him from a media appearance on an off day?
At that point, I realized how Sid was damned if does damned if doesn’t and actually, for one of the first times in my life, felt bad for a multi-millionaire, world class athlete.
/rant
So when's October you ask? Well, here's your answer.
by PensFan8725 on Jul 25, 2010 12:17 AM EDT up reply actions
I agree to an extent. I don’t want him to go off à la Sean Avery, but I would rather he speak his mind a bit more. I know he’s going to get unfairly criticized no matter what he does, I just want him to give his fans some substance to take away from what he says. Plus, most anti-Sid people I know are turned off him because of his rigidness.
What would we have to do to get Crosby on the Leafs...?
Wishful thinking never ends in Leaf Nation. For now, Go Leafs! (and Pens!)
Agreed, I think most people are turned off by his rigidness. I guess he seems too prim and proper.
At first, it really bothered me when people would kind of “pick” at him for petty things. It was like you hate him just because he says all the right things? But, now, I take it as a complement. I mean, if all people are really complaining about is that he’s “boring” and that’s why they hate him, he must be one hell of a hockey player.
So when's October you ask? Well, here's your answer.
True, but I never thought to take it as a compliment. I will now be more optimistic.
What would we have to do to get Crosby on the Leafs...?
Wishful thinking never ends in Leaf Nation. For now, Go Leafs! (and Pens!)
Evil Sid Crosby
I don’t know if you’re familiar with him, but Evil Dave Letterman is a character who occasionally appears on the howard Stern Show. He says all the things that you know the real Letterman is really thinking but is too afraid to say. So, I thought I’d try it with Sid.
Evil Sid talks about the Flyers and their fans:
“The Flyers can bleep my bleep. Philly is a total bleep-hole. Are they kidding? City of brotherly love. Yeah, I get that, because the female fans have faces only their mother’s could love. And don’t get me started on the smells in Philly. It’s like Ben Franklin took a giant bleep and they’ve been living in it the past 200 years. They call me Cindy, like I’m a chick? That’s funny considering their favorite player looks like Pippi Longstocking and Carrot Top got together and had a pretty little girl. They chant “Crosby Sucks”? Well, at least I don’t bite!
Evil Sid Crosby is a fictional character and is not intended to represent any actual person living or dead. The views expressed by Evil Sid Crosby do not reflect the opinions of and were not approved by Pensburgh or its staff or readers.
by PensAreYourDaddy on Jul 25, 2010 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Love it!
Evil Sidney Crosby should become a regular :)
ESC talks about Alexander Ovechkin of the Washington Capitals.
The White Russian without a Cup. Geno could take that bleep down in some Moscow alleyway! He thinks a President’s Trophy erases last season’s playoffs? Two words for you, bleep: STANLEY CUP! I mean, have you seen that guy’s nose? I get the creeps just looking at his face. Two game suspension for disturbing the peace!
Evil Sid Crosby runs away in a huff. At this point in time, we would like to direct our readers to the disclaimer in the comment above.
What would we have to do to get Crosby on the Leafs...?
Wishful thinking never ends in Leaf Nation. For now, Go Leafs! (and Pens!)
For a second I thought that was actually him.. Scary.
I miss hockey
What would we have to do to get Crosby on the Leafs...?
Wishful thinking never ends in Leaf Nation. For now, Go Leafs! (and Pens!)
You Are Soooooooooooo Bad.....
I cannot stop lauging….
One Who Lives And Breathes All Things Penguins
by PensFanInDenver on Jul 25, 2010 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions
The down-to-earth thing is pretty awesome (I’m using that word a lot). I think it mostly has to do with the players not getting superstar treatment from the time they’re in high school, unlike basketball and football players (I dont know anything at all about baseball). The only exceptions to that premature superstar treatment are guys like Sid and Mario, and Max the Superstar, but that’s part of what makes them to great.
What would we have to do to get Crosby on the Leafs...?
Wishful thinking never ends in Leaf Nation. For now, Go Leafs! (and Pens!)
All i’m gonna say about the Roethlisberger thing is this, if a girl is getting loaded under age at a bar where she shouldn’t be, wearing a sticker on her chest with the rest of her friends that says DTF (down to *uck) she probably got what she set out to get when she left her house that night. It seems that Kobe regained his image and he butt raped a girl…the same will happen with Ben when he starts getting us W’s.
by JasonGoPens on Jul 26, 2010 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions
if a girl is getting loaded under age at a bar where she shouldn’t be, wearing a sticker on her chest with the rest of her friends that says DTF (down to *uck) she probably got what she set out to get when she left her house that night.
Even though I am a woman, I totally agree with you. After seeing the pics from that night and hearing the college woman’s testimony (who was not under-aged, btw, she was 21 when it occurred), it’s not wonder that no charges were filed. Although, I think my sentiment that he’s a douche hasn’t been helped by other incidences prior to this one. And his attire in his first public appearance, nor what he said, did nothing to make me want to change my opinion.
It seems that Kobe regained his image and he butt raped a girl…the same will happen with Ben when he starts getting us W’s.
Kobe is an incredible player, but I and many other fans will never forget what he did. I have never liked him and that didn’t help at all. As for Ben, missing the first 4 games of the season isn’t going to help his team chances of winning at all. Plus, Pittsburgh isn’t like LA. They forgave him for the idiot motorcycle crash and the rape allegation, but I think this one will linger for a while. There’s a reason he was nearly traded; he’s got a long way to go with the organization and the fans.
So when's October you ask? Well, here's your answer.
Such a Classy Photo
He is such a babe. For me, a female, he sure is. it.
One Who Lives And Breathes All Things Penguins
by PensFanInDenver on Jul 24, 2010 10:21 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm actully
Not big into Crosby.
Just a great picture of him though
That place was for diehard sports fans. I only follow my team when they're in the playoffs" - Homer Simpson
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by bestbostonsports on Jul 25, 2010 1:06 AM EDT up reply actions
lol it’s the virtual version of you backing away slowly and ceremonially washing your hands clean.
So when's October you ask? Well, here's your answer.
Once again, an interesting, and controversial opinion...
And once again, I disagree.
FTR linked you, and it’s an interesting idea you put forth, but its does feel like a hint of sour grapes.
James Mirtle, for instance, has stated he awarded the Hart not based on pure points, but based on Henrik’s ES point production, which was in Jagr territory. Others looked at PP60, others saw how far ahead of the rest of his conference he was.
If you think the Art Ross was the only reason Hank won the Hart, dream on.
Sid did get recognition. He tied for the Richard trophy. You know, the trophy that rewards the highest goal scorer.
And Ovechkin won the Lindsay. So everyone got a trophy!
You lose the defensemen in the scoring mix if you over value goals. No defenseman cracks the top 30 goal scorers all time. 6 crack the top 30 assist scorers. 2 crack the top 30 points scorers of all time. Over-value goals and these stellar players get pushed aside for garbage collectors with longevity. Do Ciccarelli and Andreychuk deserve to bump Coffey and Borque?
The assist demonstrates a player’s playmaking ability. The Alex Burrows, Johan Franzens and Jonathan Cheechoo’s of this world owe their success to brilliant playmakers, not to their ingrained talent.
Malkin didn’t win based on points last year, Ovechkin did, based on goals. Maybe you think Henrik’s season was comparable to Malkin’s last year, and that Ovie should have had the Lindsay and the Hart. I will respectfully disagree.
Gretzky may be the highest goal scorer of all time, but his assist totals still win out with your “adjustments”. Playmaking is as, if not more, valuable as goal scoring.
Would you want a 50 goal, 34 assist player, or a 20 goal, 86 assist player to build your team around?
playmaking is important, but assists are not defined by their quality. granted, neither are goals. the point of the post is that goals are harder to get than assists, which makes them more valuable. logically, that statement is unassailable. it’s 5th grade economics.
what i think you’re really trying to argue is that the quality of Sedin’s assists are above that of the typical NHL player. this is almost certainly true. however, it is also true that the goals by Stamkos, Ovechkin, and Crosby were almost certainly of above average quality as well.
so, with both goals and assists made by elite NHL players being of a higher quality, it still stands that goals are harder to accumulate than assists. the conclusion that GP draws is still a pretty sound one. he never suggests that Sedin didn’t deserve his trophies. he suggests that the NHL, media, and fans in general should be wary of assigning too much significance to raw point totals.
the point of the post is that goals are harder to get than assists, which makes them more valuable. logically, that statement is unassailable. it’s 5th grade economics.
If something becomes more scarce it becomes more valuable, but that doesn’t mean Good A is more valuable than Good B just because it’s more scarce. If that were true 1970 Ford Pintos would be worth more than 2009 Ford Mustangs and top-tier enforcers would be worth more than 20 goal scorers.
by David M. Getz on Jul 26, 2010 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions
About what? I’m not making the case goals aren’t in demand, I’m disputing the “because A is more rare than B it is more valuable” logic, because it’s not true.
Scarcity is not the sole determinant of what value is when you’re talking about “value” in terms of what people are willing to pay. That was my point – that there’s no demand for a 1970 Pinto, and since price is determined by supply and demand, the fact that they’re extremely scarce doesn’t make them valuable.
But “value” in the context of this article isn’t a willingness-to-pay issue, it’s a productivity issue, since we’re talking about who the more valuable player is. In that case scarcity isn’t the sole determinant of value, because scarcity doesn’t correlate perfectly (or close to perfectly) with how useful someone is when it comes to winning hockey games, the same way scarcity doesn’t determine how good a vehicle is at getting you around.
by David M. Getz on Jul 26, 2010 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
I wasn’t saying that scarcity was the only determinant of value, but I was taking for granted that we can all agree that both goals and assists are in demand. I didn’t think it was necessary to state, given that the discussion is about a game where goals are needed to win.
Ah, that makes sense. I was thinking of it from more of a general economic perspective, rather than specific to this situation.
by David M. Getz on Jul 27, 2010 9:14 AM EDT up reply actions
Hits or shots, what’s more valuable? Takeaways or shots blocked? Apples or Oranges?
Just because there’s more of one than the other does not dictate total value.
Are ES points more valuable than PP points? Because if they are, Sedin is more valuable than Crosby this year.
Goals are more valuable than assists because you need goals to win a game. It’s as simple as that. It is conceivable and possible that one team can accumulate more assists than the other and lose. It is impossible for a team to score more goals and lose. You’re just dead wrong if you think assists, by themselves and as a raw figure, are more valuable than goals.
Assists do not exist without goals. Goals are VERY rare without playmaking to set them up. Maybe someone goes end to end, or gets a break off a bad cough up, but usually, someone is feeding them a puck or giving them the rebound.
Assists are one metric to measure playmaking ability. Great playmakers rack up assists. Gretzky, Oates, the Sedins, hell, Crosby.
Goal scorers are great, but you can be in the top 10 without elite talent (Burrows) if an elite set up man is with you. I don’t see one name in this years top 10 assists getters who isn’t premier talent.
he never suggests that Sedin didn’t deserve his trophies:
Henrik accomplished some great things this year, but that shouldn’t have prevented Crosby or Ovechkin from getting the recognition they deserved.
Really?
This article seems to stem from the idea that Crosby (and ovechkin) got screwed out of the MVP. Where was this article last year, when Malkin lost to Ovechkin, despite winning the Art Ross. If the penguin had won the award, would we be saying that Ovechkin got screwed?
Goals may be scarcer than assists, and frankly, they are deemed more valuable. Crosby and Ovechkin make 2-3 million more than Sedin. Not purely based on goal scoring, but still. Kovalchuk is poised to make 100 million dollars because he scores goals ridiculously well.
To want to change the scoring system, which acknowledges goals and assists to be different things, is pointless. A goal is worth 1.7 points. How byzantine. Does a kid want to do that math on his hockey cards to figure out how 51+58=146? Does the casual sports fan?
No! They’ll say “Sedin had more points”, “yeah, but crosby had more goals”. That’s why there’s a goals and an assists column. You can argue Andreychuck was better than Oates, because he scored 300 more goals. I would disagree with you, but that’s what the stats are there for.
Crosby won the Richard, Sedin won the Ross. Ovechkin won the Richard, Malkin won the Ross. One year the Ross winner won the Hart, the other the Richard winner won the Hart. There is no “assists” conspiracy screwing goal scorers out of recognition.
The first paragraph clearly states that the purpose of the post is to evaluate whether or not goals and assists should be awarded an equal point value. It doesn’t mention Sedin, Crosby, Ovechkin, or anyone else.
Where was this article last year, when Malkin lost to Ovechkin, despite winning the Art Ross. If the penguin had won the award, would we be saying that Ovechkin got screwed?
I wasn’t on this blog last year. Furthermore, when I thought Staal didn’t deserve the Selke, I said so. I actually picked a Red Wing to win it this year, which is pretty ballsy coming from a Penguins fan. Accusing me of being some stupid homer makes absolutely no sense (and is quite hypocritical coming from someone in your position). Don’t throw personal attacks at me, and I won’t throw them at you: keep it to the facts.
Hockey Blogger at Pensburgh.com
I’m not trying to throw a personal attack, and I am not trying to reduce your argument to pure homerism. I’m sorry if I come off that way.
My point was really that Malkin and Ovechkin were in a similar boat last year, and the writers voted for the goal scorer.
I truly don’t believe people think that assists are as valuable as goals, and to want to convert to a system that awards 1.7 points per goal seems bizarre, over complicated and a little silly.
The goal column is right there, and the argument that goals are harder to get than assists is valid, so why do we need to change things?
Your answer seemed to say “Crosby (and Ovechkin) got screwed out of the MVP this year because idiots don’t look past points to see goals and assists as different things”
I strongly disagree. If this were the case, Malkin would have won the MVP last year, Rocket Richard would not be held in the esteem he is and Adam Oates might already be in the HHOF. The Hockey News trashed Henrik based on the “second assists suck” argument and much of the mainstream talk was about whether he could overcome not having as many goals as Crosby and Ovie. Points per minute were a stat the Province (a Vancouver paper) touted as a defense of Henrik.
Mainstream media didn’t make the statement assists are as good as goals with the MVP vote this year, and I don’t think they ever really have. It’s why the Richard trophy exists now, to recognize goal scoring seperate from the Ross.
I truly don’t believe people think that assists are as valuable as goals
I think when you have a guy score 65 in today’s NHL, or score 10 more than the #2, then it becomes significant. But this season it wasn’t.
Cидни Kросби: Александр Oвечкин, он твой папа теперь
матовая Клими, Михал нуивирт ваш папа теперь
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by red army line on Jul 28, 2010 3:59 AM EDT up reply actions
Would you want a 50 goal, 34 assist player, or a 20 goal, 86 assist player to build your team around?
Well to be honest, it’s pending who is around either of those players. At first, that 50-goal, 34-assist player would be the ideal guy to build around. But as the goal-scoring edge starts to decrease over time and teams learn how to lock the guy down, he either has to learn to pass or disappear into oblivion.
With the 20-goal, 86-assist guy, he might not show his true value at first because how good are the guys he’s assisting? Can he turn a 20-goal guy into a 50-goal guy? If so, then I bank on him. The upside of an assist guy is that he can make other players around him better. A goal guy definitely has his place, but he’s making his team better, not his teammates. To be, I prefer the 20-goal, 86-assist guy.
Just my two cents.
And by the way, thanks for stopping by and jumping into the fray.
Follow the Penguins on SBN @ Pensburgh.com and twitter.
Can he turn a 20-goal guy into a 50-goal guy?
Or he could just turn himself into a 50 goal scorer.
See what I did there?
So when's October you ask? Well, here's your answer.
by PensFan8725 on Jul 26, 2010 10:34 PM EDT up reply actions
A goal guy definitely has his place, but he’s making his team better, not his teammates.
A 50 goal guy draws the attention of everyone from the other team, thus freeing up time and space for his teammates. I don’t think this is any different from an assist guy.
Hockey Blogger at Pensburgh.com
Maybe so, but if the opposition finds a way to shut down that 50-goal guy then who can the team turn to? An assist guy can also draw the attention of the other team and open up the ice for his teammates.
Follow the Penguins on SBN @ Pensburgh.com and twitter.
Well I think that if a team focuses on shutting down on any one player (whether a goal or assist guy), your team is basically screwed unless you have good help.
I think Crosby is a good example of this, as he’s a phenomenal passer and very good shooter. But when MTL chose to shut him down, it didn’t matter what his specialty was; we were lost because no one else showed up.
Hockey Blogger at Pensburgh.com
Goals are already given greater value, leave the system alone
As several people have mentioned, the goal leader gets his own shiny trophy.
There is no trophy for the assist leader.
The Ross is for the points leader (goals + assists).
It would be silly to change this system.
by PensAreYourDaddy on Jul 26, 2010 11:44 PM EDT reply actions
I wish they would give out an award for the assist leader.
They could call it the Lemieux.
Then again, there are people in Edmonton/LA/NY that would shit a brick if a trophy was named after Lemieux before Gretz.
So when's October you ask? Well, here's your answer.
by PensFan8725 on Jul 26, 2010 11:52 PM EDT up reply actions
For a second, I was like “Has Diomedes hacked PAYD’s account?!? I have to tell someone!”
Fortunately that wasn’t the case…
Hockey Blogger at Pensburgh.com
What can I say, he’s very influential.
by PensAreYourDaddy on Jul 28, 2010 9:15 PM EDT up reply actions



























