Adjusting For Teammates And Competition
by GoPens! on Jul 4, 2010 10:18 AM EDT
in Statistics
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One of the basic rules of interpreting hockey statistics is that all stats have to be placed in context. Adjusted +/- (also labeled as RATING at Behind the Net) is no exception. Two of the most important contextual adjustments we can make is controlling for the quality of a player's teammates and competition. While those stats are individually available, there's no method that incorporates them directly into a player's adjusted +/-...until now!
A player's adjusted +/- is the difference between his +/-ON/60 and +/-OFF/60. The reason for this is that raw +/- numbers tend to favor good players on good teams. A player might be very good, but the fact that he plays on a terrible team depresses his +/-. Player A might be a -1.5/60, but if the rest of his team is a -3.5/60, then player A has an adjusted +/- of +2. In effect, the adjusted +/- stat compares a player to his teammates, which helps to correct for some of the traditional bias that +/- has had toward good players on bad teams (for more on this topic, see this article).
While this is a step in the right direction, we're not done yet. The quality of a player's competition and teammates will have a real effect on what his adjusted +/- will ultimately be. To account for this, I've come up with a simple formula that I think captures these two effects:
(Adjusted +/-) + QCOMP - QTEAM = Adjusted^ +/-
The logic of the equation is pretty simple. A larger QCOMP means that a player faced tougher competition. Even if a player is a minus in adjusted +/-, he shouldn't be penalized if he played against stiff competition. Adding a player's QCOMP to his adjusted +/- helps to correct for differences in competition. Similarly, a larger QTEAM means that a player had better teammates, which would make it easier to put up a higher adjusted +/-. Subtracting QTEAM from adjusted +/- corrects for players who have a high adjusted +/- in part because of the talent they step on the ice with. I've termed the final statistic that takes account of competition and teammates adjusted^ +/-.
One statistic to keep in mind when looking at adjusted +/- is PDO. Since PDO is the summation of a player's on-ice ES SV% and on-ice ES S%, it measures whether a player put up a high adjusted +/- simply because he was lucky (note that S% is not the individual player's, but rather the collective S% while he's on the ice). PDO regresses very heavily to a mean of 100%, and only a handful of NHL players can consistently maintain an elevated level. Players who have a high adjusted +/- and a high PDO will very likely see a decrease in their adjusted +/- in the near future.
Now for some numbers. I used this formula to look at most of the Penguins from this year, and here's what I got:
Overall, there aren't any drastic changes between adjusted +/- and adjusted^ +/-. Sidney Crosby led the team because he's the best player in the world, and even more encouraging is the fact that his PDO is very likely to go up in the future. Surprisingly, Kunitz and Goligoski were both near the top in terms of adjusted^ +/- while also having mediocre PDO's. After learning that these two were some of the best Corsi players on the Penguins last year, this is further proof that they both had very underrated seasons. The third line also put up very good numbers, but all of their PDO's were inflated, so their adjusted^ +/- is likely to come back down in the future.
As to those on the bottom, a lot of them were victims of bad luck. Everyone from Kris Letang down will have a higher PDO next year (especially Talbot and Fedetenko), so I wouldn't worry that this is a long-term problem. The one surprise for me is Bill Guerin. Considering that he was so high in Corsi, and that Crosby and Kunitz did really well in the adjusted^ +/- department, I expected him to come out better. It looks like the numbers say that away from Crosby and Kunitz, Guerin was not a very good player.
What do you guys think of this formula?
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Sidney Crosby led the team because he’s the best player in the world
A very Duh statement but one that never fails to put a smile on my face.
and even more encouraging is the fact that his PDO is very likely to go up in the future
That scares me. But once again, in a very very good way.
Great work GP. You never cease to amaze me with your numbers.
I'm 21 now... I still feel 20 and I still feel way too old.
Just so I never have to answer this again. I'm from Singapore so whenever you see me online, I'm either sleep deprived or just waking up.
An Example...?
GP – nice post!
Definitely important to adjust for the quality of competition and of one’s teammates/linemates.
Traditional +/- doesn’t do that and consequently isn’t a very good stat.
Question: Could you “show the steps” for one player, say Sidney Crosby?
Start with his raw +/-, then adjust it, then factor in the quality of the competition, etc.
It might help to see an example.
Sure.
Let’s say Crosby plays 8 games, which all end in regulation and are played entirely at ES, and he sees 15 minutes of ES ice time per game. Over that time period, he’s a raw +8 while on the ice, and his team is a raw 8 while he’s off the ice. So to calculate his +/ ON/60, you multiply his minutes and games (15 × 8 = 120) which tells you that Crosby was a +8 for his 120 minutes on the ice. To get a per 60 rate, just divide by 2 (120/60), and you see he’s a +4 ON/60.
Next, we calculate his +/- OFF/60. Multiply minutes and games (45 × 8 = 360) which tells you that the team was -8 for the 360 minutes Crosby wasn’t on the ice. To get a per 60 rate, divide by 6 (360/60) and you see that the team is a -1.33OFF/60.
To get the adjusted +/-, you subtract the +/-OFF/60 from the +/-ON/60 [4 – (-1.33)], which gives Crosby an adjusted +/- of +5.33. Now Crosby also has a QCOMP of 0.5 and a QTEAM of 0.05. To get adjusted^ +/-, you do 5.33 + 0.5 – 0.05 = +5.78.
Hope that helps Diomedes.
Hockey Blogger at Pensburgh.com
Now Crosby also has a QCOMP of 0.5 and a QTEAM of 0.05
What is the math on these?
(I get it — I just think it would be helpful to have one example of all the #s).
Sorry for the late reply.
QCOMP is the average On/Off-Ice +/- of the opposing players a player faces. For example, if you lined up against against guys that had an adjusted +/- of 2, 1.5, 1, .5, and 0, you’re QCOMP would be the average of that, or 1.0.
QTEAM uses the same idea: it’s the average relative +/- of a player’s teammates based on how much ice time they had together. So if a player lines up with teammates that have an adjusted +/- of 1, .5, 0, and -.5, his QTEAM is 0.25.
Hockey Blogger at Pensburgh.com
Thanks, GP!
Your formula makes a lot of sense to me—I dig it, man.
It looks like the numbers say that away from Crosby and Kunitz, Guerin was not a very good player.
Billy G is widely loved—for good reason—but that’s what my eyes were reporting, too.
Any other insights from looking at your data?
What does it tell you about Gonchar?
Malkin?
Any other insights from looking at your data?
I’ll tell ya what I think, but insight from you and everyone else is just as valuable :)
There’s not a ton of groundbreaking stuff in that data. I think Talbot was mostly a victim of bad luck this year, and he might have been off his game because he was rushed back from injury before he was ready. Malkin also needs to work on improving his defensive play, judging from the stats. And Gonchar really is a liability when it comes to defense: for a guy who’s scoring 1.13 ES pts/60 min, his adjusted^ +/- is incredibly low. It makes sense when you factor in his 3.26 GAON/60, which is the 9th highest among all defensemen this year.
Hockey Blogger at Pensburgh.com
where is FHCMT when Malkin needs a good sit-down?!?
perhaps he was also hampered by injuries, but 71 is too good to not have better defensive #s.
on Gonchar, those #s are consistent with what we saw from him on the ice this year
he’s one of the very best on the PP, but overall…i think we are going to like what Martin brings
I would have thought the broken arm that caused Martin to miss most of the regular season would have tempered his asking price a bit, but judging from what the Pens paid to get him, not so.
I could see that, though his numbers from the limited time he saw this season were really, really good. I’m personally happy with the price.
Hockey Blogger at Pensburgh.com
I just can’t help but wonder how well he’ll fit into Dan Bylsma’s system after playing in New Jersey for all of his career up onto this point.
Here’s my (slightly convoluted, thinking-aloud) theory: the Pens need an upgrade on defense, and part of that involves having some guys that are allowed to produce less offense for the sake of defence. But in order for that kind of guy to survive in Bylsma’s system, they have to be willing to jump into the rush now and then (like Eaton), or they need to be an exceptionally solid defensive player. The benefit that Michalek and Martin bring with them is a really good track record, and the confidence of management (as witnessed by their contracts). So when one of them does less of the offensive-rush thing, they’ll be viewed more like Orpik and less like McKee.
There will certainly be an adjustment period, but I think Martin’s ingrained-by-the-Devils propensity to sit back will be a good thing for the Pens, and he’ll probably also enjoy some of the offensive opportunities he is afforded by playing with the Pens.
Relatively uneducated ramble, but some thoughts nonetheless.
Shero gets an A. Burkie gets a checkmark.
I’ve thought about this too, but I can’t see it being a huge deal. I know that Mike Babcock/Dan Bylsma and Jacques Lemaire approach hockey from different perspectives, but it’s not like there are 25 different ways to play ice hockey. Martin might need some adjustment so that he gets more used to jumping up in the rush, but from what I hear, he’s a very good defensemen who can be successful on any team.
Hockey Blogger at Pensburgh.com
from what I hear, he’s a very good defensemen who can be successful on any team.
In my opinion, there are two kinds of ex-Devils – those who are talented enough that when taken out of the ‘system’ they play as well as ever they have (see Scott Niedermayer, Brian Rafalski, etc.) or players who benefited from playing within the system and floundered when taken out of (like Scott Gomez, though he did do better last season playing on a line with former teammate Brian Gionta in a system similar to the Devils). I hope, for the Penguins sake, the Paul Martin turns out to be the former rather than the latter.
I hope you’re right too, kellyn. Though after last season, I’m sure Paul Martin is going to be a net positive for the Penguins’ defense.
Hockey Blogger at Pensburgh.com
I’m not sure that Gomez has been all that different of a player, but expectations that people had for him seemed unrealistic. He had that one 30-goal season in 05-06, but otherwise his performance the last few years has been consistent with the rest of his career, taking into account that he is getting older and his numbers will naturally fall.
The Pens will be back.
by PensAreYourDaddy on Jul 5, 2010 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions
I think the expectations are tied to his monster contract. I forget the term of the original contract, but I think the cap hit is around $7M (too lazy to look it up).
Shero gets an A. Burkie gets a checkmark.
Problem is, that contract was based on the crazy expectations. Circular logic is fun!
The Pens will be back.
by PensAreYourDaddy on Jul 5, 2010 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions
QCOMP
I believe that the statistic is skewed because it uses on and off ice +/- a skewed stat itself. I have no doubt that, for example, Letang faced the toughest offensive competition (Ovi, Kovy, Sedin, Nash, Hossa,etc.) and was switched to left defensive position to face them. Many were not great defensive players or played with poor defensive players. This would adversely and unfairly give him a lower QCOMP through no reasonable assessment of his performance. Bylsma consistently used him against the opponents’ best offensive players. Like it or not, he was their shut down defender. His play merely does not correspond to the passive, backing up, gap control fashion of Scuderi or Gill. Letang attacks the puck carrier instead and usually comes up with the puck. Watch. See how the best forwards avoid him like the plague or perhaps Pronger.
I believe that the statistic is skewed because it uses on and off ice +/- a skewed stat itself.
I’m going to guess you think this is the case because +/- is dependent on your teammates. If that’s the case, I have bad news for you: almost every stat in hockey is. It’s very difficult to sift out a player’s contribution from that of his teammates. Adjusted +/- isn’t perfect, but it’s a step in the right direction.
See how the best forwards avoid him like the plague or perhaps Pronger.
I’m not sure if I’d put Letang in the same category as Pronger. Nonetheless, his QCOMP and corsi QoC say that Letang faced pretty tough competition among Penguins d-men. I don’t think that point was lost in this post.
Hockey Blogger at Pensburgh.com
QCOMP
While I realize that all stats in hockey are dependent upon the quality of ones opponents and the quality of one’s team mates, +/- is particularly skewed in that manner. QCOMP seems to geometrically increase that skew by also relying on the opponents’ +/-. For example, if the opponents are the Caps, Ovy, Backstrom and Semin, backed by Green and Shultz has only two decent defenders (Backstrom and Shultz). Thus, a defenseman facing that team does not receive due credit for stoning that group because that group is horrible in their own end. Letang in QCOMP would be burdened by the fact that that group is deficient defensively as their +/- is greatly lowered by that liability though they are the highest scoring line in the NHL which would have a much higher +/- if they played good defense or any defense at all. Perhaps if defensemen were judged for QCOMP against + only of their opponent’s a more accurate picture would be given as the opponents’ defense has little to do with a defenseman’s defensive ability.
+/- is particularly skewed in that manner
I’m not sure there’s a way to determine whether it’s more or less skewed than another stat. At least I don’t know of a way…
QCOMP seems to geometrically increase that skew by also relying on the opponents’ +/-
QCOMP is your +/-ON/60 minus your +/-OFF/60. It doesn’t directly rely on your opponents.
For example, if the opponents are the Caps, Ovy, Backstrom and Semin, backed by Green and Shultz has only two decent defenders (Backstrom and Shultz). Thus, a defenseman facing that team does not receive due credit for stoning that group because that group is horrible in their own end. Letang in QCOMP would be burdened by the fact that that group is deficient defensively as their +/- is greatly lowered by that liability though they are the highest scoring line in the NHL which would have a much higher +/- if they played good defense or any defense at all.
Green and Schultz are both fine defensemen. They play solid defense, and I’d kill to get Green on our team. I think part of the problem here is that you’re separating defense into a distinct category, which isn’t how the game works. A line like the one above, which is amazing at offense, possesses the puck more often than not and tires the other team out by working hard in the o-zone. That’s some of the best defense you can ask for, as you’re playing in the opponent’s zone a lot of the time.
Perhaps if defensemen were judged for QCOMP against + only of their opponent’s a more accurate picture would be given as the opponents’ defense has little to do with a defenseman’s defensive ability.
I’m not sure what you mean.
Hockey Blogger at Pensburgh.com
QCOMP
Perhaps judging defensemen’s quality of defensive work ought to be measured by only the opponents’ + stat rather than +/- because that would eliminate the opponents’ defensive stats and the player being considered’s offensive stats. That is by the number of goals the opponent scores against the league/60 minutes compared to how many goals/60minutes that opponent scores against the defender.
By the way, I have never considered Green as a very good defender.
If I can attempt to translate here, I think GP’s point is not necessarily that Green is a “shutdown” guy in his own end, but his ability to ensure that the majority of play occurs in the other team’s zone is good D, in it’s own way.
by PensAreYourDaddy on Jul 6, 2010 6:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Ovy, Backstrom and Semin were +45, +37 and +36 respectively last year. I get that you’re trying to make a point, but this is perhaps the worst possible example you could have chosen.
by PensAreYourDaddy on Jul 6, 2010 5:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Here’s a list of WSH Caps players that provide the highest QCOMP values:
Ovechkin, Schultz, Backstrom, Green, Semin.
They have some of the highest relative +/- scores in the league – they’re recognized as extremely tough competition in both methods of accounting for it.
Only YOU can prevent idiots from commenting!
by Knee high to a duck on Jul 6, 2010 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions
As an additional note – Ovechkin and Backstrom were 1-2 in QCOMP for the Caps, in addition to having extremely high relative +/- values.
Only YOU can prevent idiots from commenting!
by Knee high to a duck on Jul 6, 2010 6:25 PM EDT up reply actions
QCOMP
That is just my point. First, all of these players allowed many goals against and that lowered their +/- as it does everyone’s. Their +/- would have been higher had they played better defensively. Thus, their QCOMP would have been much higher and the defender who successfully opposes them would receive a higher QCOMP score which would still reflect their ability to play in the offensive zone which results in additional goals. Their defensive shortcomings do not make them lesser in a competitive evaluation of the defenders opposing them. That is why, when evaluating a defenseman’s defensive ability only the + is relevant and unskewed by QCOMP.
First, all of these players allowed many goals against and that lowered their +/- as it does everyone’s.
Well, yes they allowed more goals than, say, Eric Godard, but they play a ton of minutes. Their ES GAON/60 was very low. The average GAON/60 of those five players is 2.05, which is really, really good.
Other than that, I don’t really follow the rest of argument…
Hockey Blogger at Pensburgh.com
QCOMP
Sorry to be unclear. My point is that the – part of +/- for an opponent is irrelevant when measuring a defender’s quality of competition as a defender. it is significant to his or other’s offense, it is not a competition factor in his defense.
My point is that the – part of +/- for an opponent is irrelevant when measuring a defender’s quality of competition as a defender.
I disagree. If a defender is playing competition that score a lot of goals and give up a lot of goals, then they aren’t that talented of a group. Even if they score on our defender in question, he should have no problem going back up the ice and scoring as well since they suck at defense. That makes them an average level of competition. To evaluate the true value of competition that a defender — and any player for that matter — sees on the ice, you need to know both the plus and the minus.
Hockey Blogger at Pensburgh.com
QCOMP
Ah well, we shall have to agree to disagree. I was not trying to statistically rate a player overall. I was discussing rating a defenseman as a defender only. I wanted to rate him based solely on the basis of his success/60 minutes against competition whose offensive success/60 minutes measure the defender’s quality of offensive opponents.
Defense-only situations are very rare at even-strength. What GoPens! is trying to say is that you can’t unlink offense and defense at five-a-side; both help you control the puck and the opponent’s scoring chances better, just in different ways. Since hockey doesn’t have clear offense and defense phases in the way that football does and doesn’t have a shot-clock, players have to be able to perform both roles.
Only YOU can prevent idiots from commenting!
by Knee high to a duck on Jul 7, 2010 6:04 PM EDT up reply actions
you can’t unlink offense and defense at five-a-side; both help you control the puck and the opponent’s scoring chances better, just in different ways. Since hockey doesn’t have clear offense and defense phases in the way that football does and doesn’t have a shot-clock, players have to be able to perform both roles.
Do you mind if I repeat this from time-to-time? This is extremely well said…
Hockey Blogger at Pensburgh.com
Go for it, dude. You’re welcome to anything I say.
Only YOU can prevent idiots from commenting!
by Knee high to a duck on Jul 7, 2010 9:13 PM EDT up reply actions
The phrase with the strike through should read: 8 while he’s off the ice. So to calculate his +/
Hockey Blogger at Pensburgh.com
Final apologies. The team was a raw minus 8 (-8) while Crosby was off the ice in my example.
Hockey Blogger at Pensburgh.com
I’m wondering if when you take +/- and adjust it then adjust it again for QTEAM if we might be double-counting that variable (quality of teammates)?
The way I see it, the first adjustment to raw +/- is taking account of a player’s teammates that he doesn’t see on the ice. That’s why it’s the difference between your on and off ice +/-. The second adjustment that I’ve done accounts for the teammates that a player does see on the ice, as QTEAM only looks at on-ice performance. I don’t see any overlapping.
Does that make sense?
Hockey Blogger at Pensburgh.com
Happy 4th Pensburghers
Nice write up Go Pens. I haven’t been on in a couple of days – missed alot. Great free agency pick up by Shero. Just got done watching Wimbledon
Nadal = Crosby. The best there is
I Couldn't Agree More!
—You took the words right out of my keypad….!!!!
Nadal: wonderful, class act, best tennis player, love him! Congrats to Nadal.
Crosby: best hockey player in the world. Period.
Wonderful human being, the bomb, a toal class act.
Both have a very quiet confidence. Both have alot of humility.
I will take the way these two guys behave ANY day over any boring showboater.
And GP: another fantastic write-up.
One Who Lives And Breathes All Things Penguins
by PensFanInDenver on Jul 4, 2010 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Ilya Kovalchuk just turned down the Kings offer. I’m curious what the rest of you would think if he decided to re-sign with the Devils.
I thought (total heresay) he didn’t turn out to be a great fit with the Devils. ??
Shero gets an A. Burkie gets a checkmark.
Ha! I either meant “heresy” or “hearsay” there. But I won’t tell you which ;)
Shero gets an A. Burkie gets a checkmark.
I think that it was pretty dumb of him to turn down the offer. I mean, the Kings are pretty much one or two player from being a major Cup contender. Kovalchuk could’ve easily been the missing piece. Don’t the Devils have a contract to sign with Parise and, even still, only 5 million worth of cap? Since he already turned down the Thrashers, why would he go to the Islanders?
This is kind of scaring me because the Caps have been eerily quiet and…
I've told [a 9 months pregnant] Nathalie that she can't have the baby on a game night. I'm not missing a playoff game. -Mario Lemieux in 1993
Absolutely agree. He’s stupid to turn the Kings down.
Yeah I don’t see him with the Isles. He’s probably resigning with the Devils.
I’m not sure what to think about the Caps being quiet. Doubt the Caps will do anything crazy -scary though.
by AppleSweetRose on Jul 5, 2010 5:25 AM EDT up reply actions
Aside from the three big free agent signings on July 1, Lou has been suspiciously quiet, which usually means he’s up to something. Speculations is that it’s a trade to make cap room for Kovalchuk.
it would take a trade. NJ only has about $4M in space right now.
they could go over and then clear space after the fact…
I hope that doesn’t eff them over when Parise comes knocking on Lou’s door for a new contract next year. That is, if they do somehow sign him.
I've told [a 9 months pregnant] Nathalie that she can't have the baby on a game night. I'm not missing a playoff game. -Mario Lemieux in 1993
I don’t think it will. Parise strikes me as an extremely loyal guy and has never expressed anything but a strong desire to remain with the Devils for the foreseeable future. The Devils may have to be willing to let go of some older players like Jamie Langenbruner to keep him, but I don’t see that being a problem. Zach is already billed as the team’s future captain anyway.
I think we saw some variation of GP’s math on this when we discussed the Hart race between Sid, Ovie and Sedin… Is this the same math?
I'm 21 now... I still feel 20 and I still feel way too old.
Just so I never have to answer this again. I'm from Singapore so whenever you see me online, I'm either sleep deprived or just waking up.
i haven’t done a lotta math since I enlisted about a year and a half ago… but you’re right. We don’t do math in the summer. That’s why I’m thankful for GP here and Justin (wherever the hell he is)
I'm 21 now... I still feel 20 and I still feel way too old.
Just so I never have to answer this again. I'm from Singapore so whenever you see me online, I'm either sleep deprived or just waking up.
I’m here, just trying to adjust to life in a different house, with a different commute, etc. Plus, summer is my crazy-busy season for playing concerts, dances, and so on. I’ve had 9 performances with different groups all over Western PA in the last 4 weeks, and 12 more between now and Aug 20. And two weddings to go to in that time as well.
I’ve got stuff in the pipe, but it’s coming along ultra-slow because of all this.
I still like it.
The Pens will be back.
by PensAreYourDaddy on Jul 5, 2010 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah. I’ll still wear his Chelyabinsk jersey, but for here, I think I need to stay current. I know for the Pittsburgh regional page they made everyone start using head shots. I’m not really expecting that here, but I wouldn’t be 100% surprised, either.
You mean self head shots?
The Pens will be back.
by PensAreYourDaddy on Jul 5, 2010 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah. I guess the avatars for the regional bloggers all have to be head shots, although I guess there’s no way for them to prove it’s a picture of you and not someone else. :)
Oh, you mean the staff? So, Hooks’ avatar is actually Hooks? Oh geez, I thought it was a young Marc-Andre Fleury :-)
The Pens will be back.
by PensAreYourDaddy on Jul 5, 2010 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions
wowza… had to go look for Hooks profile page to see for myself…
I’ve always used my own headshot for stuff… makes it easier for people i know to find me. that and when i eventually summon up the cash to come up north for a meet-up you guys will have more to go on than tall Asian kid.
I'm 21 now... I still feel 20 and I still feel way too old.
Just so I never have to answer this again. I'm from Singapore so whenever you see me online, I'm either sleep deprived or just waking up.
Did you actually think it was MAF? I thought you were making a joke when you said that, and I laughed really loudly.
Hockey Blogger at Pensburgh.com
Doh!
I didn’t examine it really closely, but yes, I did think that. I guess I’m not the only one, since I found this side-by-side comparison when looking through some of his twitter photos. Hopefully he didn’t think I was making fun of his picture. :-)
The Pens will be back.
by PensAreYourDaddy on Jul 5, 2010 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes I am, classically trained. An astonishing number of Pittsburgh-area SBN bloggers are, actually. Charlie over at Bucs Dugout even tours, IIRC.
That’s cool. What’s your favourite kind of music? (I realize that’s a totally random and stupid question but I’m bored and on edge from all of the free agency/Ilya Kovalchuk sweepstakes crap and need a distraction.)
Er, I realized that an edit I made on that comment made it misleading. A number of bloggers are musicians, but I think most of them are in rock bands, not in orchestra pits. Anyway.
Asking a musician what his favorite kind of music is…you’re trying to make me go mad, aren’t you?
Mostly, I listen to a lot of the same modern rock that everyone else does, System of a Down and Tool being particular favorites of mine, probably because they’re more musically complex than most other well-known bands out there. (Of course, they don’t even scratch the surface of complexity the way math-rockers like Don Caballero used to do, but that’s a different story.) I also listen to a fair amount of big band jazz, which I prefer to small combo jazz, and tons of classical from all sorts of eras and genres. Favorite? I can’t do it. :)
I love listening to my grandfather’s old records. I wish I knew how to swing dance because it’s so upbeat and seems like so much fun.
newfound respect buddy… can’t play an instrument to save my life… Like to think I can sing, but i’m fairly sure my cats aren’t screeching because they like what they hear… jkd (have no idea if i can sing)
I'm 21 now... I still feel 20 and I still feel way too old.
Just so I never have to answer this again. I'm from Singapore so whenever you see me online, I'm either sleep deprived or just waking up.
American Idol exists because most people think they can sing. :) I know I can match pitches and sight-sing written music, but I don’t know if I have what could be considered a “good” voice.
But yes, trombone is my main instrument, piano second, then other brass stuff third. I can hack around on a guitar, but nobody would want to hear that. Anything with a reed is right out of the question.
the key word is “think”…
I’m so done with “modern pop”… Give me a good Springsteen or Sinatra record over that Gaga anyday.
I'm 21 now... I still feel 20 and I still feel way too old.
Just so I never have to answer this again. I'm from Singapore so whenever you see me online, I'm either sleep deprived or just waking up.
can i diss that kid Bieber?
I'm 21 now... I still feel 20 and I still feel way too old.
Just so I never have to answer this again. I'm from Singapore so whenever you see me online, I'm either sleep deprived or just waking up.
Watch it! He’s totally Canadian!
(On behalf of my nation: a thousand apologies!)
Shero gets an A. Burkie gets a checkmark.
you gave us sidney and staalsy and a billion other awesome hockey people. that’s an okay apology.
i like the pens, sidney crosby, jordan staal, and typing in capital letters.
by katielynn906 on Jul 5, 2010 11:12 PM EDT up reply actions
i ain’t from your nation, PR, unless there’s something you’re not telling me…
Besides, I worship at the alter of Flower, Sid & Staal… That’s my version of O Canada!
I'm 21 now... I still feel 20 and I still feel way too old.
Just so I never have to answer this again. I'm from Singapore so whenever you see me online, I'm either sleep deprived or just waking up.
What instrument do you play, Justin? I played trumpet for 7 years in middle and high school.
Hockey Blogger at Pensburgh.com
Totally unrelated, but Alex Semin plays the bongos.
The Pens will be back.
by PensAreYourDaddy on Jul 5, 2010 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions
agree
he’s the WORST contract in the NHL
$6M/year to score goals in meaningless game, then disappear come playoff time
and give you absolutely ZERO in terms of grit, leadership, or, obviously, toughness
As a comparable, Evgeni Malkin disappeared during this year’s playoffs and for most of 2007-2008’s playoffs, when Sid and Hossa did most of the heavy lifting. Geno isn’t a player that’s long on leadership, grit, or especially tough. Prone to minor penalties? Sure, but not gritty or tough in the sense that Kunitz is.
Players like that only have to get hot for one post season to win you a Cup. Malkin has a bit more talent than Semin does, but they’re closer than you seem to think.
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by Knee high to a duck on Jul 6, 2010 6:22 PM EDT up reply actions
I dispute the claim the Geno disappeared in the playoffs either this year or 07-08. He admittedly ran out of gas toward the end of the 07-08 playoffs, but still the dude is 6th all-time in playoff points per game, and that wasn’t all accomplished in 08-09.
by PensAreYourDaddy on Jul 6, 2010 6:51 PM EDT up reply actions
He won the Conn Smythe for a reason in ‘08-’09: he was absolutely phenomenal during said playoffs.
Throwing 6th all-time in playoff PPG, an aggregate stat that includes 2008-2009, isn’t going to convince me that my statement was wrong.
Malkin is a terrific player and I’d take him ahead of Alexander Semin every day of the week, but if he showed up this season in the playoffs, he sure fooled me.
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by Knee high to a duck on Jul 6, 2010 7:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Malkin had 11 points in 13 games this playoff year (.85/game) while Semin had 2 points in 7 games (.29/game). Malkin wasn’t at his best in this year’s playoffs but he didn’t disappear. And he had much crappier teammates than Semin did on the ridiculously talented Capitals. If Malkin disappeared during this playoffs, then I don’t know how to describe Semin’s performance.
Hockey Blogger at Pensburgh.com
Believe me, it involved lots and lots and lots of four letter words. On the other hand, he generated 44 shots on goal and didn’t pot one. That’s not all Semin disappearing, although he definitely didn’t play anywhere near his potential.
That was the quietest 11 points I’ve ever seen — I watched half of the Sens series and all of the Habs series, I can only remember a single game where Geno stuck out.
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by Knee high to a duck on Jul 6, 2010 7:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Part of the context to his point totals is that 8 of the 11 came on the pp. He was a non-factor at ES, but a point’s a point.
Hockey Blogger at Pensburgh.com
I disagree. Malkin’s been much better in both the regular season and the playoffs:
Malkin – 1.23 pts/game regular season, 1.18 pts/game playoffs
Semin – 0.92 pts/game regular season, 0.86 pts/ game playoffs
Also, he’s done this with much lesser teammates (numbers are averaged over the last three regular seasons):
Malkin – 0.03 QTEAM, -2.712 Corsi QoC
Semin – 0.13 QTEAM, 10.29 Corsi QoC
And Semin sees a boost because he plays in the SE division. Malkin is much better than Alexander Semin.
Hockey Blogger at Pensburgh.com
Let’s have a look at the last two years:
Malkin: 1.38 pts/gm Conn Smythe. That’s all I, or anyone else, can really say about that post season for Malkin. He earned it.
Semin: 1.27 pts/gm Blew up the Rangers, disappeared against the Pens.
Malkin: 1.15 pts/gm
Semin: 1.15 pts/gm
Now let’s compare Corsi.
2008:
Semin: 7.0 relative Corsi, 17.48 CorsiOn, 10.51 CorsiOff
Malkin: -5.2 relative Corsi, -7.64 CorsiOn, -2.43 CorsiOff
2009:
Semin: 4.9 relative Corsi, 10.2 CorsiOn, CorsiOff 5.26
Malkin: -2.5 relative Corsi, 3.35 CorsiOn, 5.85 CorsiOff
Stiffer Competition?
Semin Corsi QOC and QComp:
2008: -2.032 .022
2009: -.548 .047
Malkin Corsi QOC and QComp:
2008: .276 .060
2009: -.575 0.000
I’ll give you 2008, but 2009 is a wash. Recently, Malkin is better, but Semin is also elite.
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by Knee high to a duck on Jul 6, 2010 8:37 PM EDT up reply actions
I wouldn’t focus on just the last two years. At least go three since that’s what we have from behind the net.
Malkin faced much stiffer competition in both 2007 and 2008, and he was about even with Semin this year. He also did this with crappy teammates.
Malkin had a much better Corsi than Semin in 2007, and though Semin is better in the following years, I don’t think it means much because he’s seeing weaker competition and has vastly superior line mates.
Looking at point totals from the regular season and playoffs over the last three years, we see that Malkin is at 1.28 regular season pts/game and 1.21 playoff pts/game, while Semin has 1.04 regular season pts/game and 0.86 playoff pts/game.
Semin is a very good player but I wouldn’t say elite. And I don’t think that he and Malkin are comparable by any means over the last three years.
Hockey Blogger at Pensburgh.com
Factor into the discussion that Semin scores a higher proportion of his points as goals, which are more valuable than assists. Over the last two years, he’s scored at better than .5 goals per game, which is a higher rate than Malkin’s achieved, with exception of his 07-08 season, in which he shot 17%+.
Semin has developed significantly over the last two seasons as a player (coinciding with Fedorov’s membership on the team), which is why I used the last two years.
Arguing very good and elite is semantics, but I’ll leave you with this: Semin scores goals at a rate that would leave him consistently in the top 3-7 players in the league if he could get a whole season in. Also, for the 2008 season: Here’s a link for all the forwards in the league that played more than 40 games, sorted by Points/60 at ES. Check who #2 and #3 are.
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by Knee high to a duck on Jul 7, 2010 8:04 AM EDT up reply actions
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by Knee high to a duck on Jul 7, 2010 8:04 AM EDT up reply actions
Good points.
The thing that stands in the way, though, are his competition and teammates. He’s been in such a better situation than Malkin, so his performance isn’t surprising. Also, Semin is used in very specific situations, as his OPCT is above 56%. Malkin is at 53%, but to me this is just further proof that Malkin has done more with less.
Hockey Blogger at Pensburgh.com
I am not arguing that Semin is better than Malkin, or even as good. Just a little rankled by the idea that his 1 year, 6 million dollar contract is a millstone. Malkin has done more with worse teammates (Although they’re both killers at ES) and Semin plays on a better PP.
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by Knee high to a duck on Jul 7, 2010 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m with you on that. He’s a very good player, and I get annoyed when some people put too much weight into playoff stats.
Hockey Blogger at Pensburgh.com
This is first time I’ve used this specific formula, Alighieri. It’s also the first time that I know of where someone attempted to incorporate QCOMP and QTEAM into adjusted +/-.
Hockey Blogger at Pensburgh.com
my mistake then. Because someone did some math to work out this relativity between competition when we were comparing the HArt finalists.
i’m just glad you’re here, GP. I’m a coffee table kinda guy when it comes to calculations. I just put all my money on a coffee table and if I have more now than I did last week, i’m good.
I'm 21 now... I still feel 20 and I still feel way too old.
Just so I never have to answer this again. I'm from Singapore so whenever you see me online, I'm either sleep deprived or just waking up.
the first time that I know of where someone attempted to incorporate QCOMP and QTEAM into adjusted +/-
good idea…rec’d.
by truculence is a virtue on Jul 5, 2010 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions
In a good way or a bad way? I mean … do you think this would be a good deal for NJ? (Kovalchuk at $60M over 7 years)
Shero gets an A. Burkie gets a checkmark.
I have no idea. I just want this to be over, at this point. Either sign him, or move on. I trust Lou’s decisions, and I trust in his ability to discern whether signing this guy long term is good for the team. It’s kind of hard to argue with Lou’s track record. He’s one of the best general managers in professional sports, let alone the National Hockey League.
sounds like Kovalchuk is VERY close to re-signing as a NJ Devil
NYPost had reported it as a done deal: 7 years, $60M
(ie, just a little LESS than Crosby, Malkin, Ovechkin for those keeping score at home)
but they retracted that and now are saying a decision is expected later today
If it is in fact $60M over 7 years, that comes to an $8.4M cap hit. I couldn’t see how this isn’t a big overpay, especially when Zach Parise is a much better player who will make $5M next year with a cap hit around $3.1M. I’ll take Parise over Kovy any day of the week, and twice on Sunday.
Hockey Blogger at Pensburgh.com
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