Getting To Know Zbynek Michalek
The Penguins' biggest free agent pick-ups this off-season were Zbynek Michalek and Paul Martin. Since the free agency buzz has settled down over the last couple of days, I figured that now would a good time to look at what these guys bring to the table. I'm not going to personally analyze Paul Martin because John Fischer already put together an awesome analysis.
As always, props to Behind the Net for supplying all of the data.
I'm going to compare Michalek to defensemen who saw a similar level of competition. There were 174 defensemen this year who played at least 50 games and saw 10 minutes of ES ice time. Michalek ranks 14th when that group is sorted by QCOMP. For this analysis, I'll be looking at the top 20 defensemen in terms of QCOMP. A description of what OPCT is can be found here. Let's see how Michalek stacks up (click the image to enlarge it):
The first thing I notice is that outside of Chris Pronger and Zdeno Chara (who happen to have some the highest QTEAM ratings), none of these defensemen have killer adjusted^ +/-'s. Michalek is 14th in QCOMP and last in QTEAM (or first, depending on your perspective), and his adjusted^ +/- rating puts him at 15th. His zone start isn't much of a factor because it's not too far in either direction, and his penalty +/- is average among this group of players. He doesn't stand out, but remember, we're looking at the best of the best.
What I'm going to do next is repeat the analysis using Corsi QoC and Corsi QoT. Corsi QoC measures comeptition just like QCOMP, but instead of using the adjusted +/- as a base, it uses the Corsi ON statistic. What this is measuring is how well your competition out-attempted opponents. High Corsi QoC's mean that your competition was out-attempting opponents and controlling possession, making them very formidable players. Corsi QoT uses the same logic, but applies it to your teammates. If you're Corsi QoT is low, then you're on the ice with a bunch of guys who get out-attempted, which makes your job more difficult. The numbers:
Michalek jumps to 12th using the Corsi ranking, and Brent Seabrook takes the biggest dive as he falls to last in this group. The reason for this is that his Corsi QoT was huge compared to the other guys, so a lot of his adjusted +/- is more a result of his line mates.
The last even strength category I'm going to look at is goal and shot differentials while these players are on the ice. Here are what the stats show:

Using goal differential as a variable, Michalek ranks 7th out of 20. This is quite a feat considering that the 13 players below him, all of whom had better teammates, were a negative in goal differential. Michalek's -2.3 shot differential was 14th in the group, but it's not too far off from the others, as Robyn Regehr's -1.0 was ranked 9th. And one stat that isn't represented on these graphs, shot-blocking, also speaks favorably of Michalek's talents. Among the 199 defensemen who played 40 games this year, Michalek's 5.4 blocks/60 ranks 38th. Overall, Michalek is a very solid even strength player, and comparing him among some of the best defensemen in the league does not diminish his achievements.
Now let's look at Michalek's short-handed stats. I'll use the same group of 20 that I used above. Some numbers:
Michalek is 11th in SH TOI/60, so we know that he's a strong penalty killer because he's getting a lot of minutes. His adjusted^ +/- is 18th in the group, but he ranks 13th in GAON/60. He's also below average in terms of SAON/60, but he's not too far from the middle. He's not getting torched while on the ice, and though he's below average when measured against this group, his TOI/60 and shot blocking numbers are indicative of a solid penalty killer.
Regarding his performance on the power play, I'm not going to take an in-depth look at Michalek's numbers because he didn't see a ton of man-advantage time. His 1:30 ppTOI/game was last on the Coyotes this year, but his 3.4 power play pts/60 was average. This could mean that he's got the ability to be a solid d-man on a second power play unit, but we'll probably know more once we see how the coaching staff decides to use him next year.
Finally, I figured it would be nice to compare what these 20 players will be making in 2010-2011, since some bloggers think that Ray Shero overpaid for Zbynek Michalek. It doesn't look that way:
The average 2010-2011 salary for players who have salaries set at this time is $4.24M. Considering that that number is depressed because younger guys like Seabrook and Polak haven't had a chance to negotiate a new contract, Michalek is getting the money he deserves. He's done a great job against really tough competition while also having crappy line mates. He kills a ton of penalties, blocks shots very well, and is only 27 years old. Since Shero got him to sign a five year contract, there's a distinct possibility that Michalek could outplay his contract in a couple of years. The Penguins blue line is going to be much better next year simply because Zbynek Michalek is wearing black and gold.
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Comments
I’m a lot more sure of Michalek coming to the Penguins than Paul Martin. Although that could just be because Martin was pretty much off my Penguins radar until Shero threw that hail mary at the trade deadline
Is it October yet?
Just so I never have to answer this again. I'm from Singapore so whenever you see me online, I'm either sleep deprived or just waking up.
this is how i feel:

that’s all.
i like the pens, sidney crosby, jordan staal, and typing in capital letters.
i should have clarified and said “this is how i feel about the signing.”
context and clear writing, yay!
i like the pens, sidney crosby, jordan staal, and typing in capital letters.
by katielynn906 on Jul 8, 2010 11:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Hey Guys! I have been in Germany for a week now and not able to access the site till now. Thought you guys would get a kick out of this one – We were in a bar in Heidelberg (no, not by Carnegie) the night they played Spain for the soccer thing. (dont like soccer) It was like being in Philly when they lost the finals! Everyone was all excited, drunk and crazy, then – they lost. The only thing different from Philly – NO FIGHTS!!!
GoPens!,
I just wanted to mention that I really appreciate the analysis stuff you do here. Stats usually make my head spin, but you have a knack for the presentation of the numbers and do it in a way that gets the point across without lulling an amateur to sleep trying to figure it out.
Nice work, really.
I voted “not sure at this time” just because of the length of the contract. Too many variables with longer term contracts to know how they’ll turn out.
In the short term, he’s an obvious upgrade to the team. In fact, I think he immediately becomes the best D on the team.
In general, I think he was the best D out there, so getting him was a good move just for the fact it prevents him from playing elsewhere.
"You want to start being part of the Rink? Fine, but more’s expected of you than John/Jane Cap Fan. Carry the cause of informed discussion to the unwashed masses and don’t crap in the yards of other SBN sites if you decide to go over there. They’re passionate about their teams too, no need to troll elsewhere and/or be a sore winner." --BP
I like the length of the contract because it brings consistency to our defensive corps. And because he’s entering his prime, he might be worth more than $4M in the third or fourth year of the contract.
Hockey Blogger at Pensburgh.com
He might, and if that happens, then it’s a really good contract. He also might have injury problems, lose motivation, fail to click, or whatever. Then it would be a bad contract. I tend to think long, expensive FA contracts are guilty until proven innocent.
But the Pens have made their stand as far as their D corps for the next 3 years goes, and that’s worth something. Gives you something to build around, at least.
"You want to start being part of the Rink? Fine, but more’s expected of you than John/Jane Cap Fan. Carry the cause of informed discussion to the unwashed masses and don’t crap in the yards of other SBN sites if you decide to go over there. They’re passionate about their teams too, no need to troll elsewhere and/or be a sore winner." --BP
I find it kind of interesting that we find a 5 year contract “long”. It’s definitely healthy, but in a lot of other hockey fanbases, 5 years is just a decent contract for a good player. Our attitude is probably a side effect of Shero’s “no long term contracts to non-core players” strategy (a good one imo). Time will tell, of course, but 5 years for very highly reputed players with decent track records on good teams is … not actually too scary. Or, at least, that’s what I keep saying to myself!
Shero gets an A. Burkie gets a checkmark.
agreed. guy’s worked his ass off to get where he is. i think making it to pittsburgh was huge for him.
i like the pens, sidney crosby, jordan staal, and typing in capital letters.
Yup. I read an interview with him on Empty netters, and he talked about how excited he was to get signed by the Pens. He might be able to up his level of play even more next year.
Hockey Blogger at Pensburgh.com
he seems like such a down to earth guy that i can’t help but like him.
i like the pens, sidney crosby, jordan staal, and typing in capital letters.
I think it was with Cari but we really liked how he got his wife onboard with the decision instead of just yelling “Honey, We’re moving!”
I think he can be invested in the city and the franchise… Think of it as losing one team pillar in Sarge and replacing him with Big Z.
Is it October yet?
Just so I never have to answer this again. I'm from Singapore so whenever you see me online, I'm either sleep deprived or just waking up.
I think he constitute a low risk even with his contract length. He’s done well enough that if he’s a bad fit, there’d be plenty of teams willing to eat his cap space…
Plus if there were any red flags about Big Z, I’m fairly sure Shero would have seen it anddecided it was an intelligent risk.
Is it October yet?
Just so I never have to answer this again. I'm from Singapore so whenever you see me online, I'm either sleep deprived or just waking up.
Michalek
Nice analysis which also points up the fact that Leopold ought to have been retained, Thanks.
Leopold was a really impressive d-man before he had his concussion. After that, not so much. One thing these statistics don’t reflect is whether he’ll be able to return to his former self, which is a risk that depresses his value. Also, his role in FLA was really different from his role with PIT. Had he spent the entire year with us, I doubt his QCOMP would be so high.
Hockey Blogger at Pensburgh.com
Michalek
I suspect that Leopold could have been gotten for $2M by the pens early on. I should expect his QCOMP would reflect where in the lineup and what pairing he was played. He was considered to be good against the opponents’ best players, just like Letang.
I’m not sure Leopold would have taken $2M when Buffalo was ready to give him three, especially for a guy who’s never seen a big pay day.
Hockey Blogger at Pensburgh.com
Leopold
Well GoPens! we shall probably never know. Had Shero tied him up well before 1 July, I surmise that he was so anxious to come back that he would have signed; however, that is pure speculation.
Also, I agree that Leopold would have probably taken $2M from the Pens — especially before July 1st. However, while I’m sorry we couldn’t keep him, I’m not sorry with the current look of our D.
Shero gets an A. Burkie gets a checkmark.
However, while I’m sorry we couldn’t keep him, I’m not sorry with the current look of our D.
Yes.
Hockey Blogger at Pensburgh.com
signing Leopold, even for $2M (which is debatable w/o aforementioned time machine), still would have been a mistake.
of Leopold, Martin, and Michalek he only had money to sign 2 of the 3.
he signed the 2 best.
his name is Ray Shero and He Gets Shit Done.




























