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Behind the Net breaks it down, saying we shouldn't expect another 50+ goal season from Sid.

over 1 year ago Penguins_cup_08__tiny FrankD 166 comments 0 recs  | 

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Personally, I see Sid settling in around the 40-42 goal mark.

I do think the Powerplay will be better, thus increasing his point total.

My official Crosby statline prediction: 41-80-121

by Link_Gaetz on Sep 2, 2010 12:54 PM EDT reply actions  

80 assists?

Really? Seems kind of bold. This is just out of curiosity, but what makes you think that he’ll have 80?

So when's October you ask? Well, here's your answer.

by PensFan8725 on Sep 2, 2010 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, 80 seems high. Just because he has no consistant finishers to play with 5-on-5. This is why he started to shoot more last year and hence score more goals.
I’m going with: 53-69-122

by Lindas1st on Sep 2, 2010 6:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

Now, apparently there are some Pittsburgh fans out there who think Crosby is going to score 50 goals again this season. Despite being a gifted playmaker, he has no track record of scoring like that. Let’s look as his three-year weighted projection:

This kind of ignores the fact that Sid made a conscious decision to change his game to become a more dangerous goal scorer. It isn’t like he was just the same old guy going about his business and happened to suddenly net 50.

Having said that, I doubt he’ll hit 50 this year. He gives and takes a beating out there, and it seems unlikely he’ll play as many as 81 games again. I’ll put him at 35 g and 75 a next season.

.
Follow me on twitter, Picasa or at Pens Through My Lens.

by PensAreYourDaddy on Sep 2, 2010 1:08 PM EDT reply actions  

Agree

"Hockey captures the essence of Canadian experience... hockey is the chance of life, and an affirmation that despite the deathly chill of winter we are alive." - Stephen Leacock.

by Leafer87 on Sep 2, 2010 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

Exactly

And shame on the naysayers who say he “won’t ever do it again,!!”

He can and he will. He made the conscious decision to change his game last season—and even improved dramaticlaly on his face-off percentage.

I am thinking he can score 50 plus this season. Will he? Who knows.

One Who Lives And Breathes All Things Penguins

by PensFanInDenver on Sep 2, 2010 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

To add to this he was an extremely dangerous goal scorer in the Q it was only a matter of time before he found the scoring touch in the NHL.

Put on your dancin' shoes.

by PensFan024 on Sep 3, 2010 9:49 AM EDT up reply actions  

I was worried when I read the headline that they based their analysis on some kind of extrapolation based on his last few seasons. With Sid’s work ethic and (as you mentioned) the conscious decision he made to change his style of play, I think that’s the absolute wrong way to go about projecting his future totals.

I don’t want to get too optimistic and set myself up for disappointment, but ~105-110 points with ~45-50 goals is pretty reasonable, assuming he stays healthy and focuses on goal scoring like he did last year.

by Superstar25 on Sep 3, 2010 6:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree.
It’s a blessing to be able to say that if Sid wants to score more goals, he’ll probably score 50. It’s whatever the team needs, and, to me, that’s exactly why he’s the best player in the world.

So when's October you ask? Well, here's your answer.

by PensFan8725 on Sep 4, 2010 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

All things being fair, he shouldn’t have to score that many goals. Last year it was a necessity.

by SlayerGhaleon on Sep 2, 2010 1:20 PM EDT reply actions  

Unfortunately, it’s probably going to be a necessity for him to score at least 40 this year.

So when's October you ask? Well, here's your answer.

by PensFan8725 on Sep 2, 2010 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

Even more unfortunately, he’s probably going to have to score 60-65 to make up the lost production from the wings… Malkin will need a monster season as well. If at least one of the two isn’t hot at every point of the season, I can see our offensive numbers dropping through the floor.

Let’s just hope the money spent on D can compensate for this and that MAF gets his head right.

by 27catz on Sep 2, 2010 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

When I said that,

I was sort of banking on Geno actually being Geno this season.

So when's October you ask? Well, here's your answer.

by PensFan8725 on Sep 2, 2010 6:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don’t see where this lost production from the wings is coming from. We lost Poni, Guerin and Feds.

Poni didn’t work out, so any forward on the roster not Adams or Godard can replace him and his production.
Feds scored 11 goals playing nearly the entire season on the 2nd line. I like the guy, but again, any forward not Adams or Godard, or maybe Rupp, can replace him and do score 11 or more.
Guerin. I’ll miss him, but his production isn’t hard to replace either. He played half the season on Crosby’s line and half the season on the PP. He was already replaced on Crosby’s line by Dupuis last season. And while I’m not 100% sure, I do believe he was mostly replaced on the PP as well.
Moving people up the ranks naturally means there’ll be a void to fill in the bottom 6, but that’s why we got Asham.

This isn’t to say that our winger position is any better than last season. It’s not. But, I don’t believe it’s considerably worse either.

When it comes to scoring, I’m more worried about the lack of Gonch than of those three guys. But, hopefully M&M, as well as still-improving Letang and GoGo, will make up for that loss on offense and PP.

We can just hope Letang has been taking shooting lessons from Crosby!

by Skyff on Sep 3, 2010 5:54 AM EDT up reply actions  

he’s gonna score eleventy billion.

okay, 40-ish.

we're not trading jordan staal.

by katielynn906 on Sep 2, 2010 1:27 PM EDT reply actions  

why ask for billions when you can get….. millions!!!

by PhilG on Sep 2, 2010 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

austin powers reference….. for those that don’t get it….

ya know, it is less fun when I have to explain this stuff….

by PhilG on Sep 2, 2010 10:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

Oh, I wasn’t picking on you. I didn’t get the reference, but I got that you did it on purpose. :p

by JustinM on Sep 2, 2010 10:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

87 billion :D

"Hockey captures the essence of Canadian experience... hockey is the chance of life, and an affirmation that despite the deathly chill of winter we are alive." - Stephen Leacock.

by Leafer87 on Sep 2, 2010 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

I see what you did there.

by JustinM on Sep 2, 2010 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

Not a big surprise…….Other than Ovechkin in the current NHL era, predicting anyone will achieve consecutive 50 goal seasons wouldn’t make sense. That being said, as PAYD notes, Crosby didn’t just happen to score 50 using the same methods; he consciously changed his game. So, really, if he maintains the change, or changes it further, the baseline may shift over time to show a different prediction based on the new playing dynamics. So, rather than predict, I’ll just hope for an excellent season of 120 points – any way he balances that between goals and assists would be great, but another 50 goals would be terrific.

by SuMac on Sep 2, 2010 2:30 PM EDT reply actions  

Yes, but… Remember he’s going to start the season with Kunitz and ???. Replacing Guerin’s production and ability to draw coverage won’t be easy and Sid’s goalscoring isn’t a surprise any more. Teams will play him differently.

BTW I’m not saying that we should have kept Guerin, I think letting him go was a smart idea. It’s just that there isn’t anyone ready RIGHT NOW to replace him.

by 27catz on Sep 2, 2010 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

Teams will play him differently.

So, if they try and take away his shot, I guess he’ll just have to pass.
It’s too bad his terrible at that.

So when's October you ask? Well, here's your answer.

by PensFan8725 on Sep 2, 2010 6:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

he’s

So when's October you ask? Well, here's your answer.

by PensFan8725 on Sep 2, 2010 6:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

You know what would be awesome? If he could win the Richard and Art Ross.

"Hockey captures the essence of Canadian experience... hockey is the chance of life, and an affirmation that despite the deathly chill of winter we are alive." - Stephen Leacock.

by Leafer87 on Sep 2, 2010 7:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

My Thought, too

One Who Lives And Breathes All Things Penguins

by PensFanInDenver on Sep 2, 2010 7:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

When was the last time that happened? ;)

My blog and Twitter, featuring coverage of the winger that has now terrorized over 70 NHL goalies.

by red army line on Sep 3, 2010 10:04 AM EDT up reply actions  

Not that long ago, but you knew that!

by JustinM on Sep 3, 2010 10:05 AM EDT up reply actions  

Okay, expanding on that…

Ovechkin did it in 2007-2008, 65-47-112
Iginla in 2001-2002, 52-44-96
Lemieux in 1995-1996, 69-92-161
Lemieux in 1988-1989, 85-104-199
Lemieux in 1987-1988, 70-98-168

Then 4 times in 5 years from Gretzky, and so on and so forth. It’s not hugely uncommon, but it’s not for nobodies, either.

by JustinM on Sep 3, 2010 10:15 AM EDT up reply actions  

See

You already have Crosby “up there” with the best of the best (not including Iggy; no offense to him).

One Who Lives And Breathes All Things Penguins

by PensFanInDenver on Sep 3, 2010 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions  

Crosby hasn’t done it yet. Yet.

by JustinM on Sep 3, 2010 10:17 AM EDT up reply actions  

I Know

But he will and I like what you expanded on above.

One Who Lives And Breathes All Things Penguins

by PensFanInDenver on Sep 3, 2010 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions  

I hope you’re right.

Consider, though, that for all the years Brett Hull, Selanne, and/or Mogilny won Richard trophies with ridiculous number, they never pulled down both trophies.

by JustinM on Sep 3, 2010 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions  

but we can take credit from Lemieux

"Hockey captures the essence of Canadian experience... hockey is the chance of life, and an affirmation that despite the deathly chill of winter we are alive." - Stephen Leacock.

by Leafer87 on Sep 3, 2010 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions  

Actually, Ovechkin and Iginla are the only ones, since the Richard was only created in the mid-90s, I believe.

My blog and Twitter, featuring coverage of the winger that has now terrorized over 70 NHL goalies.

by red army line on Sep 3, 2010 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions  

You are indeed correct. The Rocket Richard Trophy was first awarded in 1998-1999 to Teemu Selanne.

Still, my overall point stands.

by JustinM on Sep 3, 2010 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions  

Bullshit

I call bull bullshit on this comment.
JustinM is still on point with his comment. Wether or not they won both awards is irrelevant because as you stated in your own comment the “Richard Award” wasn’t given out until ’ the 98-99 season. But all the players that JustinM listed did in fact lead the league in goals and points in the same season.
Although (not to be a nitpicker), Gretzky did it 4 straight and 5 out of 6 seasons (81-82 thru 84-85 & 86-87).

by Lindas1st on Sep 3, 2010 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

Oops. Truth is, I got tired of comparing goals and points leaders after Mario’s third one there and just eyeballed the years before that. :)

by JustinM on Sep 3, 2010 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

Bullshit

I call bullshit on myself for pointing out such an inconsequential fact to JustinM’s point that it made absolutely NO difference.

Sorry JustinM, I wrote “not to be a nitpicker” and then I go and pick the first nit I see.

by Lindas1st on Sep 3, 2010 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

No worries. I know you’re used to getting crap from the A2Y folks. We try not to do that here. :p

by JustinM on Sep 3, 2010 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

You know what would be awesome? If he could win the Richard and Art Ross.
When was the last time that happened? ;)
Okay, expanding on that…

Ovechkin did it in 2007-2008, 65-47-112
Iginla in 2001-2002, 52-44-96
Lemieux in 1995-1996, 69-92-161
Lemieux in 1988-1989, 85-104-199
Lemieux in 1987-1988, 70-98-168

Then 4 times in 5 years from Gretzky, and so on and so forth. It’s not hugely uncommon, but it’s not for nobodies, either.

What is BS about that? Gretzky never won the Richard, fact.

My blog and Twitter, featuring coverage of the winger that has now terrorized over 70 NHL goalies.

by red army line on Sep 3, 2010 7:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

I took it to mean that the players led the league in goals & points in the same season. Not so much the actual hardware they won at the Award Show. Which is why he used Gretzky & Lemieux as examples. And I thought you knew that but corrected him anyway just for the sake of correcting him even when your correction actually didn’t matter much to his point anyway. He even stated that later in the thread:

Still, my overall point stands.

If I’m mistaking and you acually didn’t understand his point, than I apologize sincerely.

by Lindas1st on Sep 3, 2010 9:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

Sorry, Justin, if I offended you. I just wanted to make the accomplishment of my boy Alex Ovechkin seem more special

My blog and Twitter, featuring coverage of the winger that has now terrorized over 70 NHL goalies.

by red army line on Sep 4, 2010 4:29 AM EDT up reply actions  

Trust me, RAL, we all think of Ovie as being a little “special”.

.
Follow me on twitter, Picasa or at Pens Through My Lens.

by PensAreYourDaddy on Sep 4, 2010 8:18 AM EDT up reply actions  

Special

Yep, PAYD, just not in the way he thinks

One Who Lives And Breathes All Things Penguins

by PensFanInDenver on Sep 4, 2010 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions  

I wasn’t offended. You were right, I wasn’t.

But so was Lindas1st (who I keep wanting to call Linda for short but that’s probably all wrong)—the hardware doesn’t matter so much to me as the statistics that determine the awards in the first place. There was a time before the Art Ross Trophy, too, but we can still talk about single-season points leaders before that time.

by JustinM on Sep 4, 2010 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions  

Bingo

Another great point JustinM. The first Art Ross was handed out after the 47-48 season. Does that fact mean Sweeney Schriner’s back to back scoring titles in ‘36 & ’37 are less of an accomplishment compared to Dickie Moore’s back to back scoring titles in ‘58 & ’59 because Moore won the “Art Ross” and Schriner didn’t. Of course not.

BTW JustinM, Lindas1st or Linda – no big deal to me ,I’ve been called much woorse.

by Lindas1st on Sep 4, 2010 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

(just to clarify, I never meant to say that Lemieux or Gretzky’s seasons were any less amazing just because they didn’t win a piece of hardware that didn’t exist. I’m sorry if it read that way. I was trying to go off on a tangent and add a bit of information I wasn’t aware of initially)

My blog and Twitter, featuring coverage of the winger that has now terrorized over 70 NHL goalies.

by red army line on Sep 4, 2010 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

It’s all good red army line.

by Lindas1st on Sep 4, 2010 6:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

Who’s he passing to again? Kunitz? Not really going to draw coverage away, right? That’s if he can play more than 50 games this year.

Sid’s the best playmaker, but he needs someone at least competent on the end of his passes.

by 27catz on Sep 3, 2010 1:53 AM EDT up reply actions  

Who do you think he was passing to in 06-07 when he had 84 assists? Or in 08-09 when he had 70?
The guy is that good, if they won’t let him shoot, he’ll find a way. And, by the way, Kunitz the best winger he’s ever had besides Hossa.

So when's October you ask? Well, here's your answer.

by PensFan8725 on Sep 3, 2010 2:31 AM EDT up reply actions  

His goal scoring shouldn’t have been a surprise even halfway through last season. If teams are playing him “differently” this year it’s because of something else.

by JustinM on Sep 2, 2010 10:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

There’s not much ‘game planning’ during the regular season. Most teams face each other only a few times, often quite a while between. Teams have 3-4 games in a week, so there’s not much video prep except for special teams. So, yes, teams typically wouldn’t game plan for Sid being a shooter during the regular season. His scoring certainly went through the floor once he hit the playoffs, no? Why do you think that is?

6 in 13 is quite a different rate than 51 in 81.

by 27catz on Sep 3, 2010 1:58 AM EDT up reply actions  

6 in 13 is quite a different rate than 51 in 81.

Yeah it is, but 13 games is quite a small sample size. As you probably know, especially with goal scoring, that a goal scorer mostly goes on hot streaks and cold streaks. Sid has 5 goals in 6 games against Ottowa and then 2 in 7 against the Habs.
Since that’s not really an adequate sample size, take the 2009 playoffs where the Pens (as you know) played to the end:
2009-2010 season: 81 GP, 51 G = 0.6296 goal/game
2009 playoffs: 24 GP, 15 G = 0.625 goals/game which would amount to a 50.625 (or 51) goals pace if he would’ve played 81 games in the playoffs.

So when's October you ask? Well, here's your answer.

by PensFan8725 on Sep 3, 2010 2:40 AM EDT up reply actions  

against Ottawa and then 1 in 7 against the Habs.

So when's October you ask? Well, here's your answer.

by PensFan8725 on Sep 3, 2010 2:41 AM EDT up reply actions  

I like that you round up goals. It’s good to know that if I ever score 0.625 goal I’ve scored a goal!

by Skyff on Sep 3, 2010 5:59 AM EDT up reply actions  

Lol it’s for mathematical purposes.

So when's October you ask? Well, here's your answer.

by PensFan8725 on Sep 3, 2010 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

No need to explain, I’m just yanking your chain =)

by Skyff on Sep 3, 2010 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

Lol I realized that.

So when's October you ask? Well, here's your answer.

by PensFan8725 on Sep 3, 2010 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah it is, but 13 games is quite a small sample size.

YES. Also, the playoffs are notoriously more defensive than the regular season.

by JustinM on Sep 3, 2010 8:36 AM EDT up reply actions  

Also, in the playoffs you’re playing one team at a time. Sometimes individual players just do better against one team’s style than another — or a team does poorly against particular individuals. And that is highlighted when two teams play each other a bunch of games in a row.

Shero gets an A. Burkie gets a checkmark.

by PopRocks on Sep 3, 2010 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions  

I realize that.
But 24 playoff games is more of a sample size than 13.
It’s like comparing a little apple to a big one.

So when's October you ask? Well, here's your answer.

by PensFan8725 on Sep 3, 2010 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

True. Unfortunately, the necessary amount of data is more like a watermelon. :)

by JustinM on Sep 3, 2010 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, but it was the most playoff GP in one amount of time there was for Sid.

So when's October you ask? Well, here's your answer.

by PensFan8725 on Sep 3, 2010 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

Replacing Guerin’s production

He was already replaced last season. By Dupuis.

by Skyff on Sep 3, 2010 6:00 AM EDT up reply actions  

I gotta go with mid-to-low 40s as well.

But the article focuses SOLELY on Sid and how he compares to an amalgam of 50 goal players one year later. No mention of how lineup changes might have affected the amalgamated players — or will affect Sid.

I went through the game recaps from last year doing a quick count how many of Sid’s goals Guerin and Gonchar assisted on. My count is slightly inaccurate (I counted 48 Sid goals when he obviously had 51, but I’m admittedly half-assing this), on which Billy G had 12 a’s and Gonch had 9. I didn’t count Eaton, but he had some as well.

But Geno (particularly on the PP), Goligoski, Dupuis and Kunitz assisted on a good many, and they’re still here. Martin has a reputation for being a good puck-mover.

I think the new emphasis on defense that Ray Shero pushed in free agency, in addition to the loss of Guerin, and natural “regression towards the mean” will put Sid in the mid-to-low-40s.

by RuthenianCowboy on Sep 2, 2010 3:17 PM EDT reply actions  

why slow down?

I don’t think there are more players that Sid can assist to this season compared to last. Therefore I don’t see any reason why he won’t continue trying to shoot more…

And I’ll go with a 52 G 62 A stat line for the coming season… this is of course if he plays close to a full season

You have to see it for yourself...

by Bla Razor on Sep 2, 2010 3:47 PM EDT reply actions  

It’s hard to expect him to score 50 next season, but then I didn’t expect him to score 50 this season.
Crosby does what Crosby wants to do, if he wants it enough, he’ll do it.

by Skyff on Sep 2, 2010 4:09 PM EDT reply actions  

Good Point!

And if Crosby hears about what “can’t do” or “will not do..” ..well then, he will want to do it all
the more. Good for him!

One Who Lives And Breathes All Things Penguins

by PensFanInDenver on Sep 2, 2010 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

Hmm, reverse psychology, eh?

Dude, there’s totally like NO WAY Sid scores 75 goals and sweeps the awards next year…

by RuthenianCowboy on Sep 2, 2010 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

75 Goals?

Wow that’s a crazy number. The reverse psych thing (yeah, I majored in it), good point.
I was referring to if someone tells him he can’t do it or won’t do it he goes out and proves them wrong.
Would we love to see him score another 50—plus? ah, yeah!

One Who Lives And Breathes All Things Penguins

by PensFanInDenver on Sep 2, 2010 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

Why not 85? Match Mario.
Fukc it, make it 87-synchronicity!

by Lindas1st on Sep 2, 2010 7:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

I would chant 87 in the faces of the non-believers :)

"Hockey captures the essence of Canadian experience... hockey is the chance of life, and an affirmation that despite the deathly chill of winter we are alive." - Stephen Leacock.

by Leafer87 on Sep 3, 2010 9:53 AM EDT up reply actions  

If he shoots even more, he’ll get close. I wouldn’t count on such a nice shooting percentage like this past season. Since it’s so hard nowadays to get 50 goals (three players barely made it, and in 2009 there was just 1, in 2008 2) I’ll say no. 42-66-108. Yeah, that assist total isn’t completely arbitrary.

My blog and Twitter, featuring coverage of the winger that has now terrorized over 70 NHL goalies.

by red army line on Sep 2, 2010 4:26 PM EDT reply actions  

If he shoots even more, he’ll get close. I wouldn’t count on such a nice shooting percentage like this past season.

He had a high shooting percentage, but look where he mostly shots from (right in tight to the net, where there’s a better chance of scoring).

And, to be fair, Crosby finished 5th in the league in total shots on goal. It’s not as if he needs to (or will) end up throwing a lot more rubber to the net than he already is.

SB Nation PIttsburgh

"Game's the same. Just got more fierce."

by Hooks Orpik on Sep 3, 2010 10:25 AM EDT up reply actions  

He had a high shooting percentage, but look where he mostly shots from (right in tight to the net, where there’s a better chance of scoring).

I don’t buy it. I remember reading his average shooting distance was only a bit smaller than Ovechkin’s, for one. Furthermore, it’s kind of ridiculous that when you remove Stamkos from that NHL.com front page for shot leaders Crosby leads by 3%.

My blog and Twitter, featuring coverage of the winger that has now terrorized over 70 NHL goalies.

by red army line on Sep 3, 2010 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions  

Crosby’s career shooting percentage:

14.0
14.4
13.9
13.9
17.1

He may regress a little back to his mean of about 14%, but I think it’s reasonable to expect given how he plays around 14-15%.

Ovechkin’s career shooting percentage is 12.5%. Obviously he shoots a lot more, but from my eye he shoots a lot more from further away too (which isn’t a knock on him).

SB Nation PIttsburgh

"Game's the same. Just got more fierce."

by Hooks Orpik on Sep 3, 2010 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions  

I agree 14% is about right, but on 300 shots that’s about 8-10 fewer goals.

My blog and Twitter, featuring coverage of the winger that has now terrorized over 70 NHL goalies.

by red army line on Sep 3, 2010 7:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

“I was referring to if someone tells him he can’t do it or won’t do it he goes out and proves them wrong.”

Exactly. Shhh….

by RuthenianCowboy on Sep 2, 2010 4:39 PM EDT reply actions  

Dammit, that was supposed to be in reply to PensFanInDenver.

by RuthenianCowboy on Sep 2, 2010 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

I was just agreeing with you.

Sorry I think you were agreeing with me not disagreeing.
I’m just a silly gal…

One Who Lives And Breathes All Things Penguins

by PensFanInDenver on Sep 2, 2010 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm also slow sometimes...LOL

One Who Lives And Breathes All Things Penguins

by PensFanInDenver on Sep 2, 2010 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well, you are two hours behind a lot of us… ;-)

.
Follow me on twitter, Picasa or at Pens Through My Lens.

by PensAreYourDaddy on Sep 2, 2010 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

LMAO

And I am amazed some of you folks stay up very LATE on this post or hardly ever sleep…

One Who Lives And Breathes All Things Penguins

by PensFanInDenver on Sep 2, 2010 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

This is where I have a problem with the article
What’s clear is that regardless of which projection method we follow, we expect Crosby to score around 40 goals next season. Remember – when a player has a big season, particularly one that’s out of line with what he’s done before, it’s because everything broke right for him.

Crosby isn’t some ordinary player. Yes, he had some luck on a few goals this season but when you’re shooting all the time and going to the front of the net, good things are bound to happen. Sid worked his ass off to become more of a goal scorer, and I believe that we’re going to see at least a 40+ goal season from Sid for at least the rest of his prime. I realize that 40 goals is what Hawerchuk predicted him to score, but his reasoning is what I have a problem with.

So when's October you ask? Well, here's your answer.

by PensFan8725 on Sep 2, 2010 5:20 PM EDT reply actions  

Oh and my predictions for next season:
If the team needs more goals:
52 G, 67A 119 points

If the team has balanced scoring:
41 G, 79 A 120 points.

And that is exactly why I love this guy. Whatever the team needs, he’s can do it and do it very well.

So when's October you ask? Well, here's your answer.

by PensFan8725 on Sep 2, 2010 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

Oh yeah and the guesses are assuming he plays 82 games…and now, I’m talking to myself.

So when's October you ask? Well, here's your answer.

by PensFan8725 on Sep 2, 2010 5:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

lol, aww!
But at least you seem to be agreeing with yourself… That’s usually more than I can say for myself.

by Skyff on Sep 2, 2010 5:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

Don’t interrupt….I wanted to see how long she’d keep the conversation going.

.
Follow me on twitter, Picasa or at Pens Through My Lens.

by PensAreYourDaddy on Sep 2, 2010 5:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

Shut up.
I was finished after the third comment, thank you very much.

So when's October you ask? Well, here's your answer.

by PensFan8725 on Sep 2, 2010 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

My mind and I seem to like each other, don’t they?

So when's October you ask? Well, here's your answer.

by PensFan8725 on Sep 2, 2010 6:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

Even if he started shooting “all the time” and going to the front of the net, he still didn’t get all that many shots through, considering that he got to 50 and his average shooting distance (slightly smaller than Ovechkin’s).

My blog and Twitter, featuring coverage of the winger that has now terrorized over 70 NHL goalies.

by red army line on Sep 3, 2010 10:06 AM EDT up reply actions  

personally

I’d rather have a guy who doesn’t shoot as much over a guy who shoots like crazy but loses the Richard by 1 goal :)

"Hockey captures the essence of Canadian experience... hockey is the chance of life, and an affirmation that despite the deathly chill of winter we are alive." - Stephen Leacock.

by Leafer87 on Sep 3, 2010 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions  

Sid was 5th in SOG this past season.
Just sayin’

So when's October you ask? Well, here's your answer.

by PensFan8725 on Sep 3, 2010 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

He still shot the puck a heck of a lot less!
That #8 guy is a lean mean puck shooting machine. And this was his big playmaking year too. Baffling!

by Skyff on Sep 3, 2010 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

True…even though he missed 10 games, OV had the most.
But..Sid wasn’t exactly a slouch either.
I’ll take Sid’s balance over Ov’s shoot, shoot, shoot, pas-…shoot any day.

So when's October you ask? Well, here's your answer.

by PensFan8725 on Sep 3, 2010 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, he may have had his average scoring distance go up, but he’s still mostly a front of the net guy.
Plus, not only did his shot improve, but he started shooting more which means that he didn’t score 50 “because everything broke right for him.”

So when's October you ask? Well, here's your answer.

by PensFan8725 on Sep 3, 2010 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

Not everything broke right, but two guys—Sid and Stammer—basically led the other top shooter by three percent, which relative to the others is 20-25%. They’re not 1/4 better shooters than Kovy, AO, Parise, or Staal.

My blog and Twitter, featuring coverage of the winger that has now terrorized over 70 NHL goalies.

by red army line on Sep 3, 2010 7:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

All I’m saying is that the closer you are to the net, the high your shooting percentage will probably be.

So when's October you ask? Well, here's your answer.

by PensFan8725 on Sep 4, 2010 6:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

Link?
Or I could just find it myself…

So when's October you ask? Well, here's your answer.

by PensFan8725 on Sep 2, 2010 8:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

Sorry PensFan8725 – but I got the stats from their annual Ultimate Fantasy magazine (not sure if they put it online). I’ll put some projections from that magazine at the bottom of the thread.

by Lindas1st on Sep 2, 2010 11:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

Don't worry about it...

lol I was searching and searching…
Thanks for putting up the stats, though!

So when's October you ask? Well, here's your answer.

by PensFan8725 on Sep 3, 2010 2:43 AM EDT up reply actions  

Hockey News has: 80, 53-63-116

Personally if I had to bet: I’d go over on the assists, under on the goals and I hope he gets 80 games.

SB Nation PIttsburgh

"Game's the same. Just got more fierce."

by Hooks Orpik on Sep 3, 2010 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions  

I think that Sid will continue to push 50.

Despite giving up Gonch, I expect Tanger & Goose to grow. Plus Ricky & Mickey have some potential on offense as well. Not to mention an improved backline should allow for more breakouts or at least let him save himself on defense.

Add those to a (hopefully) improved PP, I think he’ll get 47 & push 50 at the end of the season. It’s gonna be fun to watch but I’m not gonna be surprised if he’s in contention for the Rocket again.

Is it October yet?

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Just so I never have to answer this again. I'm from Singapore so whenever you see me online, I'm either sleep deprived or just waking up.

by Alighieri on Sep 2, 2010 7:05 PM EDT reply actions  

I expect Tanger & Goose to grow.

I’m have higher expectations for those two than I have for any other players on the team this year. Especially Tanger.

So when's October you ask? Well, here's your answer.

by PensFan8725 on Sep 2, 2010 8:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

You and me both! First Norris nomination for Tanger? Woo!

by Skyff on Sep 3, 2010 6:02 AM EDT up reply actions  

oh hells yeah!

Is it October yet?

Twitter

Just so I never have to answer this again. I'm from Singapore so whenever you see me online, I'm either sleep deprived or just waking up.

by Alighieri on Sep 3, 2010 9:50 AM EDT up reply actions  

No

but a shooting percentage higher tan 3 is a start.

So when's October you ask? Well, here's your answer.

by PensFan8725 on Sep 3, 2010 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

I’m sure Letang just firmly believes that it is about quality not quantity (of shots on goal).

by Skyff on Sep 3, 2010 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

Not sure why you’d think the Pens PP would be better considering they lost two of the top guys (Guerin and Gonch) in the offseason. Neither have a ready replacement on the team. Martin was part of a pretty inept PP in NJ and there is NO one close to replacing Guerin on the team right now.

by 27catz on Sep 3, 2010 2:00 AM EDT up reply actions  

Guerin was already replaced on the PP in the second half of last season, by alternating Cooke and Kunitz if I’m not mistaken.
Gonch is a concern, but hopefully Martin, Letang or GoGo will step up and fil the void.

You’re right about your main point, though, I too am not convinced the PP is better. But, I’m certainly looking forward to finding out! By all accounts, Martin is a solid PP QB. And you saw how GoGo was rocking that joint at the beginning of the season, boy, was he on FIRE! He’s got the potential, let’s see what he can do in his sophomore year. And Letang is possibly the most talented of the three, he just needs to find his shot and his self-confidence.

by Skyff on Sep 3, 2010 6:10 AM EDT up reply actions  

I forgot to add at the bottom:
But, all that potential is still only potential. Gonch was and is one of THE BEST in the league at it.
Still, I’m optimistic. It may take some time, but the PP will be fine.

by Skyff on Sep 3, 2010 6:12 AM EDT up reply actions  

I’d just like the new personnel. Without a guy like Gonch (who I love to bits), the Pens have no choice but to retool and think of some new schemes & runs. That can only improve our abysmal PP.

Plus we now have the element of surprise! MUAHAHAHA

Is it October yet?

Twitter

Just so I never have to answer this again. I'm from Singapore so whenever you see me online, I'm either sleep deprived or just waking up.

by Alighieri on Sep 3, 2010 9:54 AM EDT up reply actions  

unless I count as the enemy.. I’m giving away all the Pens’ secrets to the Leafs!
MUHAHAHAHA back!! :D

"Hockey captures the essence of Canadian experience... hockey is the chance of life, and an affirmation that despite the deathly chill of winter we are alive." - Stephen Leacock.

by Leafer87 on Sep 3, 2010 9:55 AM EDT up reply actions  

with a name like Leafer? You can’t be anything else but a Pens fan…

/WARNING! Sharp Learning Curve Ahead/

Is it October yet?

Twitter

Just so I never have to answer this again. I'm from Singapore so whenever you see me online, I'm either sleep deprived or just waking up.

by Alighieri on Sep 3, 2010 9:56 AM EDT up reply actions  

Sadly, the Leafs are not in danger of stealing anything away from the Pens. Except for a game here and there, which they seem to do at least once a season.

I mean, I suppose they can field a team made entirely of defensemen, but other than that …

Shero gets an A. Burkie gets a checkmark.

by PopRocks on Sep 3, 2010 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions  

shhhh

our plan is win every game by blinding everyone with our depth at defence :D

"Hockey captures the essence of Canadian experience... hockey is the chance of life, and an affirmation that despite the deathly chill of winter we are alive." - Stephen Leacock.

by Leafer87 on Sep 3, 2010 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions  

that was werid…

"Hockey captures the essence of Canadian experience... hockey is the chance of life, and an affirmation that despite the deathly chill of winter we are alive." - Stephen Leacock.

by Leafer87 on Sep 3, 2010 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions  

shhh

our plan is win every game by blinding everyone with our depth at defence :D

"Hockey captures the essence of Canadian experience... hockey is the chance of life, and an affirmation that despite the deathly chill of winter we are alive." - Stephen Leacock.

by Leafer87 on Sep 3, 2010 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions  

That can only improve our abysmal PP

Come on, now, it’s not all Bylsma’s fault.

.
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by PensAreYourDaddy on Sep 3, 2010 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions  

Heh … took me a second, but now I’m laughing out loud.

Which is a bit weird, because I’m sitting in my office all by myself.

At least I don’t have to explain it to anyone!

Shero gets an A. Burkie gets a checkmark.

by PopRocks on Sep 3, 2010 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions  

HAH! for a second i had to stop…

Is it October yet?

Twitter

Just so I never have to answer this again. I'm from Singapore so whenever you see me online, I'm either sleep deprived or just waking up.

by Alighieri on Sep 3, 2010 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions  

my prediction is 38 goals, 87 assists..

"Great Balls of Fire".....Mike Lange

by Randy F on Sep 2, 2010 9:51 PM EDT reply actions  

Here’s the top 20 players with some notables and the Pens from the Hockey News’ projections:

1) Sid : 80, 53-63-116
2) Ovechkin: 79, 60-55-115
3) Geno: 80, 44-64-108
4) Stamkos: 50, 50-48-98
5) Thornton: 82, 25-71-96
6) Backstrom: 82, 27-65-92
7) St.Louis: 82, 30-61-91
8) Datsyuk: 81, 31-59-90
8) H.Sedin: 82, 25-55-90
10) Kovalchuk: 79, 47-42-89
10) Heatley: 82, 45-44-89
10) D.Sedin: 81, 34-55-89
13) P. Kane: 82, 32-55-87
14) Getzlaf: 78, 24-62-86
15) Parisi: 81, 40-45-85
16) Spezza: 78, 34-50-84
17) Lecavalier: 81, 34-49-83
18) Kopitar: 82, 35-47-82
19) Toews: 78, 36-45-81
19) Tavares: 82, 33-48-81
19) Savard: 80, 20-61-81
-———Some Notables—————
22) Gaborik: 73, 40-40-80
22) Semin : 75, 38-42-80
28) E. Staal: 80, 41-36-77
29) R. Nash: 77, 41-35-76
29) Zetterberg: 75, 31-45-76
-—————Pens————————
Kunitz: 82, 22-30-52
Staal: 82, 22-28-50
Goligoski: 78,11-36-47
Dupuis: 33 points
Cooke: 31 points
Martin: 30 points
Kennedy: 30 points
Letang: 30 points
Talbot: 23 points
Tangradi: 21 points
Orpik: 18 points
Michalek: 16 points

by Lindas1st on Sep 2, 2010 11:47 PM EDT reply actions  

8) H.Sedin: 82, 25-55-90

Should Be:
8) H.Sedin: 82, 25-65-90

by Lindas1st on Sep 3, 2010 12:01 AM EDT up reply actions  

Hmm…I’m a little surprised about Tanger, and more so with Gogo’s numbers. I would switch those two up, but, other than that, I like the predictions.

So when's October you ask? Well, here's your answer.

by PensFan8725 on Sep 3, 2010 2:45 AM EDT up reply actions  

Gogo’s gonna be a beast. If anything, I’d say Letang should be up with him, not trailing…

…but it all depends on who gets PP1 time with Martin, because you know he’s going to be one of the two out there.

by JustinM on Sep 3, 2010 8:38 AM EDT up reply actions  

Unless, Gogo shows something great in camp, I’m banking that spot will go to Letang.

So when's October you ask? Well, here's your answer.

by PensFan8725 on Sep 3, 2010 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

I’d say it’s about even. Letang has more potential, but GoGo has more PP QB experience.

by Skyff on Sep 3, 2010 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

4) Stamkos: 50, 50-48-98

Is this another error or do they really think the kid will be a goal per game, two points per game player this year?

.
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by PensAreYourDaddy on Sep 3, 2010 9:26 AM EDT up reply actions  

Error

Yeah, he’s a very good hockey player but he ain’t up in the Gretzky/Lemieux stratosphere at 2 points a game.
Should have been- Stamkos: 80, 50-48-98, thanx for the heads up.

That’s 2, I know…I’m a dope.

by Lindas1st on Sep 3, 2010 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

Sorry, when I said “another error”, I was thinking the error was in the source data, not your extraction and reporting of the numbers. Didn’t mean to sound like a jerk.

.
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by PensAreYourDaddy on Sep 3, 2010 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

It's All Good

No problem, I wasn’t offended. I was just disappointed in myself for rushing through it and still not finding all the errors I made – even after double checking it.

by Lindas1st on Sep 3, 2010 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

heehee, beating Ovie by one point would be awesome!
It would also give me a heart attack, seeing as at the end of last year I was following the Leafs, Pens, Caps, and Lightning.. good times..

"Hockey captures the essence of Canadian experience... hockey is the chance of life, and an affirmation that despite the deathly chill of winter we are alive." - Stephen Leacock.

by Leafer87 on Sep 3, 2010 9:57 AM EDT up reply actions  

Always beating Ovie is awesome!

One Who Lives And Breathes All Things Penguins

by PensFanInDenver on Sep 3, 2010 10:15 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, but if Sid only beats Ovi by one point, then Ovi will still get the Hart.

Shero gets an A. Burkie gets a checkmark.

by PopRocks on Sep 3, 2010 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions  

Damn, took that comment right off my keyboard.

Yeah, if he beats him by 1, playing 1 more game and scoring 7 fewers goals, Ovie will take all fhe major awards, especially if Geno scores that well.

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by PensAreYourDaddy on Sep 3, 2010 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions  

I hate how everyone complained this year about Ovie missing games (which were mostly his fault) but they didn’t listen when Sid played less games and got a higher ppg but didn’t get any awards :(
/ranting

"Hockey captures the essence of Canadian experience... hockey is the chance of life, and an affirmation that despite the deathly chill of winter we are alive." - Stephen Leacock.

by Leafer87 on Sep 3, 2010 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions  

Wow. I think Backstrom, Spezza, Kane, Letang, and Semin are all too low. I don’t think Geno will have more helpers than Sid, either. Just a gut feeling.

My blog and Twitter, featuring coverage of the winger that has now terrorized over 70 NHL goalies.

by red army line on Sep 3, 2010 10:09 AM EDT up reply actions  

I think the Semin prediction is the worst. He won’t play in 75 total games, but he’ll still probably score more than 38, especially in a contract year

SB Nation PIttsburgh

"Game's the same. Just got more fierce."

by Hooks Orpik on Sep 3, 2010 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions  

Hey Hooks

This is not about this subject, but where is Go Pens? Haven’t read anything from him lately. ?

One Who Lives And Breathes All Things Penguins

by PensFanInDenver on Sep 3, 2010 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions  

You didn’t hear? We traded him to Edmonton for a couple of minor league prospects. We’ve got them blogging in WBS for now.

.
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by PensAreYourDaddy on Sep 3, 2010 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions  

He moved to a different state for law school. I imagine he’ll be back when he’s more settled.

by JustinM on Sep 3, 2010 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions  

Law School? Very Cool

One Who Lives And Breathes All Things Penguins

by PensFanInDenver on Sep 3, 2010 10:48 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yes, very cool, because we can never have enough lawyers. I guess that’s something that we haven’t figured out how to effectively outsource yet, eh?

I was wondering where he’d gone. Good to know he’ll probably be back.

.
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by PensAreYourDaddy on Sep 3, 2010 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions  

Interesting, thanks for putting that all up.

I hope Martin gets a few more than 30 (though no one should expect like 50).

And if Malkin/Sid combine for that many points, I bet the power play will end up looking pretty nice.

SB Nation PIttsburgh

"Game's the same. Just got more fierce."

by Hooks Orpik on Sep 3, 2010 10:29 AM EDT up reply actions  

No problem Hooks. See, I actually do take it seriously sometimes.
BTW, got the Jaggs card today and it’s dynomite!

by Lindas1st on Sep 3, 2010 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

This is Sid's Year (again, only better)

i hear PAYD — he does take a beating and you never how healthy someone will stay, but for the purpose of projections, unless there is a current condition, i always assume a player plays most of the season (like 78-80 games or so).

given that, my projection, on that fantastic new ice, is:
57 + 66 = 123 points

the “kid” is 23.
a prime scoring year
(as many on here know, i’m more bullish on 87 and 71 NOW than in, say, 4-5 years).
he has a healthy Kunitz + a more confident Dupuis (or whoever else can earn that spot) and, i think, the Staalkin line will draw away SOME defensive coverage/provide a little more space for Crosby’s line

out on a limb, w/ my chainsaw…

Crosby will win the Hart
and either the Richard OR the Ross

by Diomedes7 on Sep 3, 2010 12:33 AM EDT reply actions  

There You Are

We’ve been waiting for you to comment:

thanks for the picture.

It makes my day!

One Who Lives And Breathes All Things Penguins

by PensFanInDenver on Sep 3, 2010 10:06 AM EDT up reply actions  

thanks, PFiD!
just traveling a lot again

by Diomedes7 on Sep 3, 2010 10:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

Seeing these pictures always make me happy :)

"Hockey captures the essence of Canadian experience... hockey is the chance of life, and an affirmation that despite the deathly chill of winter we are alive." - Stephen Leacock.

by Leafer87 on Sep 3, 2010 9:57 AM EDT up reply actions  

Unpredictable

Sid is unpredictable and if he chooses to shoot like last season he could score 50-60 goals. It will depend on what the coaches and Sid discuss during the season and who plays with him

The Hockey Dr.

by Outcast on Sep 3, 2010 8:10 AM EDT reply actions  

I think he will score 59 g and 87 a for 146 p

by jevans on Sep 3, 2010 9:06 AM EDT reply actions  

So many predictions for 87 assists…

I wonder, if Sid has 87 assists with 2 more games left in the regular season, will he hold back just to keep that 87?

Is it October yet?

Twitter

Just so I never have to answer this again. I'm from Singapore so whenever you see me online, I'm either sleep deprived or just waking up.

by Alighieri on Sep 3, 2010 9:55 AM EDT reply actions  

Hmmm

knowing his superstitions: yes
knowing his competitiveness: no
I’d say he definitely wouldn’t hold back if it would help the team/outcome of the game, but if someone like Geno was on a roll he wouldn’t go out of his way to assist.
That said, restraining from assisting doesn’t mean he restrains from scoring…

"Hockey captures the essence of Canadian experience... hockey is the chance of life, and an affirmation that despite the deathly chill of winter we are alive." - Stephen Leacock.

by Leafer87 on Sep 3, 2010 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions  

NEVER!

The Kid will never let superficial stats dictate his game.

by Lindas1st on Sep 3, 2010 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Amen

One Who Lives And Breathes All Things Penguins

by PensFanInDenver on Sep 3, 2010 6:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

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