Why Future Performance, Not Consistency, Matters
I know people will just love this one.
Consistency is a mirage.
over 1 year ago
JustinM
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I don't think consistency is a game by game variable
It’s more of a month by month variable.
There's an 87% chance this post is sarcasm...
A few shiny graphs can prove anything to people who don’t understand what they’re looking at. Where’s the graph that shows the steep drop off of production when “Sasha Minor” hits the playoffs? Oh, I guess the sample size isn’t big enough to really prove anything there.
Your sarcasm was correct. It’s the same reason that Adams and Talbot look like superheroes in the playoffs…until they don’t, but people forget the bad games once you have a reputation.
Oh, and thanks for saying I don’t know what I’m looking at. Instead of being an ass about it, you could prove me wrong.
I wasn’t insulting you and never meant to imply anything of the sort.
I was insulting people that go to any lengths to show that Semin is actually decent hockey player. Caps fans in general don’t understand the game on its simplest terms. Throw a few impressive graphs at them and they’ll believe anything. They are a shining example of rationalization at its most delusional.
by eurydice_krg on Feb 13, 2011 12:46 PM EST up reply actions
So instead you just slander the entire Caps fanbase? What a thoughtful and intelligent comment. In fact, Alex Semin is much more than a decent hockey player; even affording room for the obvious hyperbole there, you’ve overstated your case.
Caps fans disagree on Semin. Wildly. Using him as an example of what “Caps fans in general” do or do not understand is a poor choice. Try making a cogent argument that is supported instead of overly broad and dismissive statements.
Sorry. Too many trips to Verizon and choruses of “Ref you suck” clouding my judgement. There are a few knowledgable Caps fans out there, but the mindless ones drown them out. So “in general,” Caps fans are devoted to a player that isn’t worth it.
My best friend is a Caps fan and former employee of the team. Semin is moody and a morale drain on the locker room, yet he gets more affection from the fan base then more deserving players.
So when I say “in general,” I mean a majority of the fanbase.
by eurydice_krg on Feb 13, 2011 2:29 PM EST up reply actions
My bad. I’ve had to be on the defensive lately. Sorry about calling you an ass. :(
by JustinM on Feb 13, 2011 7:09 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
It’s the same reason that Adams and Talbot look like superheroes in the playoffs…until they don’t, but people forget the bad games once you have a reputation
I don’t see what point you’re trying to make. Obviously Adams and Talbot don’t have the skill to be game changers offensive every single night, and no one expects that.
A streaky player like Semin is a great help when he’s in the groove, but for whatever reason (and maybe his laid back attitude helps) when he’s not playing well it looks like he’s coasting and dogging it. That drives Caps fans crazy, since they basically never know if they’re going to get a dazzling offensive effort or a bunch of lazy hooking/holding penalties. Semin has supreme skill, but his application of that skill is not consistent. Plus he’s paid the big bucks to produce.
Don’t see why you bring Talbot/Adams into the topic. They are grinders and while they’re capable of raising their games in the playoffs, they’re hardly the backbone of a team, offensively speaking.
"Game's the same. Just got more fierce."
To expand on my point- the consistency that matters is in effort. Take your Talbot/Adams example. They’ll give you an honest effort every single game. Often times they will go un-noticed, since their games are more defensive in nature.
Semin, on the other hand, has been questioned for his focus and effort in games. The consistency of his production is one thing- any number of variables like luck, posts, near misses, etc. could derail him there.
The bigger issue isn’t the production but consistency in effort. If he played the same way every night (like a Crosby, Toews, Hossa or Datsyuk) goal-less streaks wouldn’t garner him so much criticism because other aspects of his play would be contributing to the team.
While Semin can be a good PK’er, some nights his effort and focus just are not there. That’s why people ding him for consistency and attach the enigma tag to him. Some bad luck of low shooting percentage helps, but the guy shoots high glove 85% of the time. He tries high risk/high reward shots, which a lot of times aren’t going to be conducive to having a normal or average shooting percentage. It’s going to be dialed in and high when his shot is on, and very low when he’s missing corners or not being able to convert.
"Game's the same. Just got more fierce."
by Hooks Orpik on Feb 13, 2011 1:13 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Well said. We’ve discussed this exact post at Japers’ Rink before, and no shock I don’t really agree with the grand conclusion that Semin is consistent.
The major problem I have with this post (and it’s not a problem with the post, or author, so much as a limitation on its value) is that it solely judges goal scoring. I can accept that his goal scoring may not be more inconsistent or streaky than other snipers, it’s the nature of the game. What I don’t accept is that goal scoring is a complete picture of what a consistent player is. With Semin, he has poor effort and focus when he’s off, it’s a glaring difference from when he’s playing well. Particularly his neutral zone decisions can be suspect (lots of blueline turnovers when he’s not mentally in the game). When he moves his feet and has energy, he’s a very good defensive player. When he doesn’t, he’s a hooking penalty waiting to happen. There’s a lot of stuff that goes into why Caps think Semin is inconsistent, so just using the goal scoring data doesn’t do enough to support the conclusion.
Actually, the post doesn’t state that Semin is consistent. Neil posted in a comment:
@Tim, this really didn’t go into whether Semin is actually streaky or not, just that "streaky" may not be what we thought it would be. The chart shows that even someone who is super consistent (3 shots a night with a 14.5% chance at each on becoming a goal) will still look streaky even though he is the most consistent shooter there is.
If consistent looks streaky then the upshot is still the same. The long running battle with Caps fans, the one that I’m sure inspired the post, is whether Semin is an inconsistent player or whether he is just the same as the rest of the league but the Anti-Semin people just single him out as inconsistent. Once you establish that consistent looks streaky, it’s much easier to argue that Semin isn’t streaky.
I haven’t read the followup post, if it exists, but I suspect that will be the conclusion. I just don’t want to put words in his mouth.
Right, and based on this methodology, I don’t buy it. I can buy that his scoring isn’t any more or less streaky than a normal 30-40 goal scorer. I absolutely refuse to buy the larger conclusion that Semin isn’t streaky. I’ve simply watched far too much of him, heard and read too many quotes from his coaches and teammates, to be convinced otherwise at this point. Even if you think I don’t know my stuff, when you have his teammates and coaches talking about it then you have to be pretty arrogant to think they all don’t know what they are talking about.
You aren’t someone I’d ever accuse of not knowing his stuff. I do take even coaches’ words with a grain of salt, though. There is a lot of…traditional thinking done in coaching, and I also suspect that locker rooms turn into echo chambers after a while. That’s not to say that they’re wrong; it’s just reason to be skeptical and to look into things on your own.
I agree there is definitely some group think going on, and that some of the conventional wisdom will die hard despite mounting evidence to the contrary. But when you repeatedly hear coaches say they can’t figure out how to get a guy to play consistently, and you hear teammates say “he can be the best player in the world when he wants to be” I think there’s something there.
Even if you think I don’t know my stuff, when you have his teammates and coaches talking about it then you have to be pretty arrogant to think they all don’t know what they are talking about.
Isn’t this one of the primary tenets of the internet poster ethos?
PS – Just adding some levity. F&B, you seem like a bright guy who does in fact “know his stuff”.
I didn’t really mean much by the Talbot and Adams reference. They both have reputations for being playoff gold when it’s much more likely that they simply overperformed for a year or two in the playoffs and got the reputation for being clutch, when fully 50% of the players every single season overperform their career numbers in the playoffs.
I could just the same have used Luongo or the entire Sharks team as an example on the “choker” side of things. It’s just that we’re much more familiar with Talbot and Adams.
Consistency is a mirage.
Do you really believe that? Seems like that goes much too far. You could conclude that Semin isn’t inconsistent, or that the differences in consistency in the NHL are small because the wildly inconsistent get weeded out, but to say that it flat out doesn’t exist? You saw Kovalev first hand, did you not think he was maddeningly inconsistent? Semin is a lot like Kovalev, for better and worse.
The Rangers’ eyes sure sees Kovalev as maddeningly inconsistent. Interesting comparison btwn he and Semin.
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by George E. Ays on Feb 13, 2011 2:27 PM EST up reply actions
Understand that I cut my teeth on baseball stats before I ever started looking into advanced stats in hockey. The conclusion people came to long before I came along there is that even the most “consistent” players constantly have peaks and valleys in their game, and so while there is a certain amount of steadiness possible, trying to find it is largely (as Neil puts it in the RMNB post) fool’s gold.
Given that this seems to be a human characteristic and not peculiar to the sport of baseball, I see no reason to think that’s not the case here in hockey as well.
In general I think the baseball model of analysis doesn’t work too well for hockey because of the huge differences in how the games are played. I applaud the effort, and lots of the stats are interesting or valuable, I just don’t think the stats are ever going to be as clear or discrete as they are in baseball. That’s why I’d agree that it’s Fool’s Gold to look for a lot of stuff in hockey with statistics. I don’t even know how you would model consistency. How many things would you look at? Would it even be workable if you had a robust model? Lots of things I look for when I watch players aren’t even measured in a systematic manner. There aren’t stats for winning or losing one on one battles. There aren’t stats for poor turnovers or lazy penalties. That’s all stuff that factors into inconsistency, quality in a hockey player, etc. That’s why I’m not a huge fan of the “quality of competition” stats, and it’s why I think it’s inappropriate to declare anything about any player’s total consistency (as opposed to goal scoring consistency). Consistency isn’t a mirage, it’s just not something we can measure yet. Unfortunately for the stat heads, you’re just going to have to rely on eyes for this one.
The problem with eyes is that they deceive just as much as stats can. If they didn’t, how could scouts miss so terribly on guys like Martin St. Louis and Henrik Zetterberg?
Eyes can deceive, but that’s a cop out argument. You’ve cited two examples of guys that fell through the cracks, far more often the elite players are tagged as elite at an early stage. Of course eyes aren’t perfect, but they’ve done a pretty damn good job for a long time before the stats mafia took over. There is always going to be uncertainty in life and nobody is operating with perfect knowledge. Such is life. But doesn’t the fact that the chances of having a solid NHL career are vastly higher for first round picks than the rest of the draft an indication that scouts are able to identify talent with their eyes? Eyes can be misleading (more so the human memory, but that’s a separate issue), but it’s not like they aren’t reliable at all.
I’d also add that MSL (in particular) and Z are both undersized players who were draft eligible prior to the rule changes that made it easier for smaller players to play. There’s also a European scouting investment that was a factor with Z (but is less of a factor now).
IMO, both sides tend to cop out (how many people say statistics lie?) People that ignore the stats and “seen it good” put themselves at a disadvantage. Similarly, people that only stare at the numbers and base everything off that are at an equal disadvantage. The balance lies in between.
Yes, organizations are able to identify talent by seeing it, but you’re out on a limb if you think organizations aren’t getting so-called ‘advanced’ statistical analysis done on players they target as well, and making decisions based on all available information.
Anecdotally, I’d venture that a high percentage of hits/misses in the draft are based on size or work ethic.
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by George E. Ays on Feb 13, 2011 8:00 PM EST up reply actions
Size is the number one reason people get drafted higher or lower than they should. John Scott and Alec Stojanoff are good examples of that phenomenon.
Take for example...
Martin St. Louis. From Wikipedia
St. Louis was an NCAA All-Star and three-time Hobey Baker Award finalist for college player of the year. He ranks first amongst all Vermont scorers in career points (267) and assists (176), and ranks third in career goals (91). Despite his impressive numbers with the Catamounts, he was not drafted, and signed as a free agent with the Calgary Flames in 1998. When Craig Button was appointed general manager of the Flames, he released St. Louis who then signed with the Tampa Bay Lightning.
And look at some of his accomplishments in the NHL.
Played in 6 NHL All-Star Games — 2003, 2004, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2011
Bud Light Plus/Minus Award (Co-winner with Marek Malik) — 2004
NHL First All-Star RW — 2004
Art Ross Memorial Trophy — 2004
Lester B. Pearson Award — 2004
Hart Memorial Trophy — 2004
Stanley Cup champion — 2004
NHL Second All-Star RW — 2007, 2010
Lady Byng Memorial Trophy 2010
There's an 87% chance this post is sarcasm...
We still have the kingpin of that argument in Jessiman, and rolled the dice again this year with McIlrath. I know it all too well.
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by George E. Ays on Feb 13, 2011 8:13 PM EST up reply actions
The McIlrath pick was hard to believe...
with Fowler still on the board. “The Undertaker” may turn out to be an imposing presence on an NHL blueline — and likely a fan favorite — but Fowler sure looks like a heckuva player with the potential to be a top D-man.
Hockey is such a crazy game...
I’m not sure if there is another sport where you have 2 people playing the same position, on polar opposite ends of the stat spectrum, and both players being really good at being a forward.
Take for example Craig Adams.. 3 goals and 7 assists… looks like a guy who belongs in the AHL by his stats… but, he’s a very valuable player to the Pens.
There's an 87% chance this post is sarcasm...
Yeah, but if you look through behindthenet.ca, and check out the GVT sheet…Adams has the 2nd highest defensive value on the Pens (behind Dupuis, tied with Cooke). So there are measures out there that will show his value outside the boxcar numbers. GVT is just a formula based on a lot of gamesheet data, so it’s not like that is even really hidden data.
Teams track a crazy number of things that data isn’t publicly available, forechecks, scoring chances, puck battles, touches, passing, etc…. those are the hidden ones that probably would break open the sabermetric world (much like Pitch f/x is doing for baseball), but it takes an army of people to track them by hand, and there’s no readily available electronic way to do it yet.
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by George E. Ays on Feb 13, 2011 8:10 PM EST up reply actions
Yea.. GoPens would be all over that sabermetric stuff
I’m a baseball guy so I’ve been dealing with those types of stats forever.. I just don’t use them much..
There's an 87% chance this post is sarcasm...
If they ever do release that data…I can only imagine the statsgasm that would follow. A veritable stasplosion, if you will. :p
Heh...not sure if you saw
But someone tracked the passing from just the 3rd period of Det-Chi on 12/17 for BTN
18 hours of tracking later gave this chart: 
The drooling that commenced was quite entertaining.
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by George E. Ays on Feb 13, 2011 8:18 PM EST up reply actions
Wow. That’s…impressive. I’m guessing the Penguins’ chart would just be one big gold block, knowing their proclivity for passing up a shot to make a nicer-looking play.
holy cow thats nuts
They should put a gps in the puck so they could do this for every game… then put something on the sticks so you could tell who touched the puck and when.. would be awesome
There's an 87% chance this post is sarcasm...
by Stros Bro on Feb 13, 2011 9:06 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Yeah, let’s just say that even if they managed to make a perfectly balanced, chipped puck, the players would still complain that they could tell the difference.
Just cause it's cool
There's an 87% chance this post is sarcasm...
by Stros Bro on Feb 14, 2011 12:33 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I agree that you need to use both sides, but the stats side all too frequently tries to claim some objective truth that just isn’t supported by the stats they are citing. At least if a person is just making a qualitative argument you can broach the possibility that you guys just see it differently.
I certainly much more lean towards making qualitative arguments than trying to claim things as the end all. I like using the stats to prove what did happen, as opposed to the more typical sabermetric approach of proving what will happen.
I just err on the side of numbers because they’re less subjective. Drawing this back to the topic at hand, arguments about Semin’s perceived energy level are great for sports debate, but I find it hard to use any of it as a way to evaluate his value outside the team. You have the advantage of getting 82 games of “seen it” evidence, I get 4 + playoffs, which changes the dynamic.
Comparing Semin to, say, Gaborik (who has also been indicted lately for perceived lack of effort), is easier done for me by evaluating numbers, rather than parsing opinions to figure out who might be neutral on the subject, and who has never rooted for a Russian player in their life.
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by George E. Ays on Feb 14, 2011 9:09 AM EST up reply actions
Lack of effort or not for either Semin or Gaborik, any team in the league would be happy to have either of them.
You think too highly of new york fans lol.
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by George E. Ays on Feb 14, 2011 10:29 AM EST up reply actions
Lack of effort or not for either Semin or Gaborik, any team in the league would be happy to have either of them.
For the amount of cap space they eat up, I’d like to have someone more consistent for the buck than that. Malkin may start to play into that debate too, given his past 2 seasons — though I’m more inclined to give Geno a pass due to his injuries and the fact he doesn’t have the highest quality of linemates.
"Game's the same. Just got more fierce."
by Hooks Orpik on Feb 14, 2011 11:40 AM EST up reply actions
And in Gaborik's case
someone who can actually go a whole season without getting hurt
There's an 87% chance this post is sarcasm...
I agree with you. I think I have the advantage to talk about Semin’s consistency issues, but I wouldn’t claim to be able to say that Semin is more or less consistent than Gaborik or Kessel or the streaky scapegoat of any other team. All I can confidently say is that 1) there isn’t currently a reliable way to measure “consistency” and 2) I am positive that Semin is an inconsistent player (with a huge delta between hot and cold in terms of his quality of play).
Sorry I got to this so late (needed to wait to be “validated”), but I appreciate all the feedback. The takeaway from this article is not necessarily is Semin a streak y shooter but:
All hockey players, particularly goal scorers, hit slumps. A skater that shoots 14.5% for the season will have some nights when a third of his shots light the lamp and others that are goose eggs– it’s all in the game of hockey. In fact, it’s possible that the skater is not actually streaky by nature, but due to some bad bounces he appears streaky.
I did look at three skaters in detail:
Is Alex Semin A Streaky Shooter?
Is Alex Ovechkin A Streaky Shooter?
Is Phil Kessel A Streaky Shooter?
Essentially what I am looking at is: do they fit a profile that a streaky shooter would, or one that is consistent? Does it tell us everything we need to know about a player? Of course not. And the criticism Fehr and Balanced has is correct: it does only look at goal scoring, but at the end of the day, that’s what Semin is paid to do.
Blogger for Russian Machine Never Breaks (RMNB) and WaPo's Capitals Insider
I also log the Caps scoring chances for 2010-11. The summary spreadsheet is posted on Google Docs.
Follow me on Twitter @ngreenberg
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