FanPost

The Upcoming Off-season--Who can be Re-signed?

With the conclusion of the season on Wednesday, it is time to start considering who might be staying with the Pens, and who might be leaving.  Obviously for a team like Pittsburgh the salary cap is a concern, so they cannot afford to keep everyone.  The two key questions are who they can afford to keep, and who they want to keep.  Take a look below the jump for some analysis of these questions.

I decided to take a look at the affordability aspect first.  The difficult part here is estimating how much a player will make next season.  I came up with a very rough estimate for this by using points per game (ppg) production, and computing the average salaries for a sample of 9 players who posted similar ppg this past season.  Additionally, I computed an adjusted average salary by removing the highest and lowest salaries in the sample.  Now, there are obviously a couple of glaring issues with this method:  first off it doesn’t account for non-point production value such as defensive value, PK value, or the value of a physical player.  Secondly, it is difficult to account for players who were just blatantly overpaid (although the adjusted average should help a little).  Also, the sample sizes are very small.  All this said, this gives a baseline to work from when considering how much players are likely to cost.  With that explanation out of the way, here is the chart of all the Pens pending free agents:

Name

Type

Prev. Salary

GP

Points

PPG

Avg. Comp Salary

Adj. Avg Comp Salary

Kovalev

UFA

5,000,000

74

34

0.46

$2,069,296

$1,903,571

Dupuis

UFA

1,400,000

81

37

0.46

$2,069,296

$1,903,571

Talbot

UFA

1,050,000

82

21

0.26

$1,164,815

$1,047,619

Rupp

UFA

825,000

81

17

0.21

$902,213

$824,274

Kennedy

RFA

725,000

80

45

0.56

$2,493,981

$2,413,690

Asham

UFA

700,000

44

11

0.25

$1,520,593

$1,312,190

Adams

UFA

550,000

80

15

0.19

$902,213

$824,274

Conner

UFA

550,000

60

16

0.27

$1,520,593

$1,312,190

Jeffrey

RFA

509,444

25

12

0.48

$625,000

$625,000

Comrie

UFA

500,000

21

6

0.29

$500,000

$500,000

Johnson

UFA

500,000

4

3

0.75

$550,000

$550,000

Godard

UFA

750,000

19

3

0.16

$500,000

$500,000

Total

 

 

 

 

 

$14,818,000

$13,716,379

 

 

I did not calculate comparables for the players in blue, because they didn’t have enough games played to get a reasonable read on their ppg.  I estimated salaries based on their salaries from last year, and in the case of Dustin Jeffrey, gave him a raise to equal Mark Letestu

The cap is expected to be in the area of $62.4 Million next year (link), and the Pens would have $6,687,500 in cap space for next season based on that number (assuming Tangradi is on the Pens roster, otherwise add roughly $850,000 to that).  Including Tangradi, the Pens have 8 forwards under contract, leaving them with 4-5 roster spots to fill.  Based on this, the players I would try to re-sign would be the following:

Name

Type

Prev. Salary

GP

Points

PPG

Avg. Comp Salary

Adj. Avg Comp Salary

Dupuis

UFA

1,400,000

81

37

0.46

$2,069,296

$1,903,571

Rupp

UFA

825,000

81

17

0.21

$902,213

$824,274

Kennedy

RFA

725,000

80

45

0.56

$2,493,981

$2,413,690

Adams

UFA

550,000

80

15

0.19

$902,213

$824,274

Jeffrey

RFA

509,444

25

12

0.48

$625,000

$625,000

Total

 

 

 

 

 

$6,992,703

$6,590,809

 

Obviously any of these players could be replaced with a free agent of similar caliber (and therefore salary), and it would fit under the cap based on the adjusted average.  This doesn’t really leave any room to maneuver with the salary cap, but it is doubtful that all of these players would make the full adjusted averages.  In particular, Kennedy, Dupuis, and Adams could likely be had for less.  If not, Talbot could be re-signed instead of Dupuis to free up some additional room.  In addition Asham could be added to the list, particularly if he could be signed closer to this year’s salary.  I am more encouraged after looking at this as far as the Pens ability to re-sign key free agents.

What does everyone think?  I know there was a post earlier about who will stay and go, I just wanted to add the salary aspect to the discussion. 

Salary information from Capgeek, and stats from NHL.com.  

The content expressed in fanposts does not necessarily reflect the opinions of the staff here at Pensburgh.com. FanPosts are opinions expressed by fans of various teams throughout the league but may be more Pittsburgh-centric for obvious reasons.

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