Staal vs. Backstrom: Did Shero make the right pick in 2006?
With Staal playing great, it's worthwhile to look back at the decision to make him the second-overall pick in 2006. There were certainly alternatives, but things seem to have worked out well for all parties.
about 1 year ago
PolishProdigy
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If the Penguins were picking for sheer talent, Backstrom, Toews (or even Kessel) should have been considered. But with Crosby & Malkin, they didn’t need a skilled center so much as a high ceiling player and a two-way force. Adding a playmaker like Backstrom would have been redundant and he doesn’t develop the same way if he has to start his career playing with Matt Cooke and Tyler Kennedy as linemates.
Staal has proven to be a good pick- and with 29 points in his last 35 games he’s showing that he can put up offensive numbers too. He’ll never be the goal scorer the Kessel is or the playmaker Backstrom is or the all-around offensive player Toews is, but his skills are also unique. None of those other players have Staal’s size or quite the same level of defensive acumen. I also think Staal still has a higher ceiling and more to fill out. Kessel and Backstrom, in my opinion, have already had their finest statistical seasons. Staal has not.
Staal was a good pick, but to be fair Toews or Backstrom would have good selections as well. Staal was a core piece of a Cup winner and has been “the man” offensively keeping the Pens as a viable team this season. That’s more than enough for me.
"Game's the same. Just got more fierce."
by Hooks Orpik on Apr 7, 2011 11:39 AM EDT reply actions 3 recs
I don’t think they would have had all three – Sid, Malkin, Backstrom – locked up at this point either. Backstrom’s 6 mill is a nice fit for the cap in Washington, but likely would not fly compared to Jordan’s $4.5 mill in Pittsburgh.
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ditto :)
I’m very happy we have Staal, imagine him shutting down our top guys if someone else had him, not fun…
Hometown Proud :)
"He loves hockey. He has soul." Mike Babcock about Sidney Crosby :)
Get better soon Sid...
by mummabear87 on Apr 7, 2011 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
The only thing i’d take issue with is you taking Staal over Toews. Toews is and will be a much better player than Jordan for as long as they’re both playing. And that’s not meant to be a knock on Jordan.
I agree with this...
I’d rather have Staal over Backstrom, but Toews over Staal.
Toews is just so good that I think what Staal has in defensive and 2 way doesn’t make up for the total Toews package.
That’s not saying that I wish we would have made that pick instead and that we should be killing us over it… I’m happy having Staal.
There's an 87% chance this post is sarcasm...
To be honest, Toews was the guy I wanted for the Pens on draft day. I think he’d be doing just as well as Staal has, had he become a Penguin.
But it’s kind of like, do you want to drive a Maserati or a Lamborghini?
"Game's the same. Just got more fierce."
You wish that was the appropriate comparison.
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Toews would’ve done better than Staal, assuming he could get near the ice time he’s getting in Chicago. Maybe with Malkin at wing it would be possible. But at the amount of money he’s making and will make, it would have been near impossible to keep Sid, Geno and him around for any period of time.
"It's a great day for hockey!" - "Badger" Bob Johnson
by PolishProdigy on Apr 8, 2011 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Staal has been a great pick, and I agree w/ Hooks that he’s not yet reached his ceiling like Kessel has — and Backs MAY have too (at least statistically) — but Toews, aside from Crosby, is THE player around which to build a franchise.
That said, if Shero had the entire field aside from the #1 pick that year (EJohnson) from which to choose and Toews is the ONLY player who has proven, nearly 5 years later, to have been a better pick, that’s some pretty awesome drafting.
Best 1st round value pick that year, however, has to go to Philthy for taking Claude Giroux at #22.
Chris Stewart at #16 looks to be a superstar in the making. Why the Blues traded him, I have no idea.
Probably to get that Erik Johnson guy that went #1 in the draft.
(But I agree with you, crazy to trade a budding young power forward like C Stewart. Those guys do not grow on trees)
"Game's the same. Just got more fierce."
Johnson’s been something of a dud, at least for a first-overall pick. He’s a really nice young defenseman, but is he someone you want to build your team/d-corps around?
Colorado overpaid.
Made me think perhaps Stew wasn’t good for chemistry for some reason (?).
They sold high on Shattenkirk. He’s an excellent player, but they have another prospect right behind him in Stefan Elliott that they like even more.
Heh, everyone forgets Colorado got back an elite defensive forward.
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by red army line on Apr 7, 2011 11:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Solid defensive forwards are a lot more plentiful and easily attainable compared to solid goal-scoring power forwards.
"Game's the same. Just got more fierce."
Maybe, but having a solid defensive forward who’s also criminally underpaid is pretty valuable, since colorado can now probably add another decent ufa. I also expect to see the kesler effect, since mcclement frees up stastny from normal power vs power assignments.
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"Numbers don't lie, they just don't agree with you"--George E. Ays
If I reference a lot of stats, just assume I haven't seen anything to contradict or invalidate them.
by red army line on Apr 8, 2011 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions
At $1.5m, I’d say McClement is fairly paid considering he adds virtually no offense (1g, 2a -8 in 22 games with COL) and ranks 11th on his team amongst forwards for ES TOI. In fact McClemment isn’t better than Daniel Winnik, who’s young and a lot more talented with the puck.
Winnik was acquired for a 4th round pick.
It’s easy to find guys like Winnik or McClement. It’s not the same for someone with Chris Stewart’s size, power, scoring touch and hands.
It’s weird you even bring up McClement, he’s hardly the important piece of the puzzle. Colorado needs EJ to bloom or else it’s going to be a terrible trade for them.
"Game's the same. Just got more fierce."
I’m getting 5th in TOI/60 with tough competition and sub-40 zone starts. Best penalty killing forward this season.
I know Erik Johnson is the main piece, but McClement is a nice addition for this season and next, and not exactly just your everyday grinder, either. Based on his career numbers and age looks like 25-30 points was the expectation, and he’s had a down year (as have both his teams). Whatever the case, he’s one of the players that is consistently given tough assignments by his coaches.
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"Numbers don't lie, they just don't agree with you"--George E. Ays
If I reference a lot of stats, just assume I haven't seen anything to contradict or invalidate them.
by red army line on Apr 8, 2011 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions
The PKing part, I should add, on COL. STL numbers will mess up the numbers, but not too much, I hope.
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"Numbers don't lie, they just don't agree with you"--George E. Ays
If I reference a lot of stats, just assume I haven't seen anything to contradict or invalidate them.
by red army line on Apr 8, 2011 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions
but Toews, aside from Crosby, is THE player around which to build a franchise.
Doughty? Stamkos? A 100% Malkin? Ovechkin?
I don’t know if you included salaries, but I’d rather, personally have any of the above as my franchise player than Toews (with Crosby of course being the #1 choice). If you’re taking in salaries the two Russians may drop a little.
"Game's the same. Just got more fierce."
Ovechkin may be the most talented and dangerous player on the planet, but he’s not necessarily the guy you want to build a franchise around, mostly because he’s a winger.
A 100 pt Crosby is more valuable to a franchise than a 100 pt Ovechkin, just because centers are a much more integral part of the team.
Center, defense, goalie, then wingers is how I’d rank positional importance.
Agree. Position is a significant consideration, and wing is last in priority.
Toews also destroys Ovechkin when it comes to leadership and intangibles.
Frankly, if I was the GM of Ovechkin’s team, I’d try to do a Ray Shero type of 1-for-2 trade, where I dealt away Ovechkin for Toews OR Doughty PLUS another good player. Not b/c I value quantity > quality, but b/c I’d be getting the best player in the deal AND then some.
Well, the Capitals have a really good player in Backstrom at center, so they don’t have to trade Ovechkin.
What they need to do is to get another good, young center, and quit hoping that Alexander Semin is going to become a consistent, dominant player. I think I said this over at Japer’s, but to me, Semin is Alexei Kovalev — an amazingly talented player who is a space cadet and will have incredible seasons surrounded by mediocre ones.
That comparison holds. I think Semin’s a lot more brittle than Kovalev, who’s proven to be pretty durable. Semin also is probably a better two-way player at the same age, but I think his aloofness/desire is a lot more questionable than Kovalev’s ever was. A lot of the same traits and aspects though.
"Game's the same. Just got more fierce."
they are similar, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing. Kovalev was very useful in his prime. Semin has been better at a much earlier age and has been far more consistent than Kovy. I don’t think Semin is the Caps problem, it’s been the lack of a true #2 center. You could do a lot worse than having Alex Semin as a 2nd line winger on your team. (please stop making me defend Capitals, I don’t like it)
The problem is that Semin is getting paid a ton of money to be a 2nd-line winger. $6 million this year and $6.7 next. That’s not money well spent.
it’s a lot, there’s no doubt. But he’s 1st line material (first unit PP as well) that just plays on the second line to balance the scoring.
What could you trade him for? I’m sure GMGM has looked into it, but he’s not going to give him away and nobody else is likely to give us anything near value for him.
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really? how do you know GMGM has looked into it?
that’s innaresting…
Semin is a regular season stat machine, but doesn’t contribute anywhere near his payrate during the playoffs. i’m not a fan of those types of players…although i am fan of him being on the Caps.
He’s just under a point per game player in the playoffs, fyi. But I’m sure you knew that.
I think we all suspect GMGM has—LA was going hard after wingers, I can’t imagine they didn’t look into getting Semin—and there were one of those rumor posts from SI or ESPN about the Caps shopping Semin.
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"Numbers don't lie, they just don't agree with you"--George E. Ays
If I reference a lot of stats, just assume I haven't seen anything to contradict or invalidate them.
by red army line on Apr 9, 2011 4:00 AM EDT up reply actions
Well, the Capitals have a really good player in Backstrom at center, so they don’t have to trade Ovechkin.
What they need to do is to get another good, young center, and quit hoping that Alexander Semin is going to become a consistent, dominant player.
So they don’t need a centre, but they need a centre. (-;
I’d trade BOTH Ovechkin AND Semin.
Free up $16M in cap space.
Acquire a couple top flight centres — build strength down the middle a la GMRS — and maybe even pick up a couple other quality “pieces” in the process.
Trading AO would be incredibly foolish.
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depends what you’d get back. what if you got Crosby and Malkin?
it wouldn’t happen, but the point is that you can’t say that out of hand.
Just like you can’t say you’d trade both AO and Semin out of hand. Would you do it for Dan Carcillo and a 7th?
There’s no way you get real value for AO, bottom line. You don’t like him so you say you’d move him just to move him, but that’s just dumb.
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I would take Toews over all 4 of those, again not a knock on those guys…but I think you are seriously underrating Toews here.
I didn’t mean to downplay Toews, he’s a wonderful player and a great option to build a team around. He’s just not my #2 choice after Sid.
"Game's the same. Just got more fierce."
That surprises me, who is #2 and #3 in your book?
I’d probably go
1. Crosby
2. Toews
3. Stamkos/Ovechkin (toss up)
Doughty.
East coast people don’t realize how good he is, and at such a young age he ought to be a stud for a long, long time.
Personally if you gave me a healthy Malkin I’d take him over Toews too. I wouldn’t be offended if people thought differently. Then maybe Stamkos or Toews (flip a coin).
"Game's the same. Just got more fierce."
Doughty.
East coast people don’t realize how good he is, and at such a young age he ought to be a stud for a long, long time.
I’m from the midwest, not that you needed to know that, but helpful if you think i’m not aware of the other coast or conference.
Doughty, while fantastic now and projects to be a stud for a long, long time…..is not going to have the same effect that Toews will and has already. Toews is the closest thing to Crosby there is, while he doesn’t put up the offensive numbers Sid does, Toews is better defensively. By all accounts they both are great respected leaders in their lockerooms, both are young and still maturing/getting better. I can’t see how you’d rather have a defenseman (not named Bobby Orr) over a player that’s incredibly similar to Crosby.
It may look like it, but i’m really not trying to argue…i’m just more fascinated that you don’t rate Toews over some of these players. I LOVE Malkin but if Chicago offers me that deal, I take it 110% of the time.
I would certainly take Toews ahead of everyone on that list, except for Crosby. Just love his all-around game and yes, the “intangibles.”
"It's a great day for hockey!" - "Badger" Bob Johnson
by PolishProdigy on Apr 8, 2011 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree with the Toews over Staal. I was thinking about the Olympics where he was mainly used on a checking line and was voted the best forward in the tournament. He didnt need to produce a lot on offense like he’s asked to in chicago and he still had 8pts and was the only canadian player who was not scored on.
Also next to crosby, he would be the best player to build a team around. I was following a bit the hawks struggles this year where they were out of the playoffs at one point and he just carried them during a stretch after the all star break. And last night’s game was just clutch. People compare him to crosby, both had success as young leaders. That says a lot when people compare you to crosby. Would be a lil selfish to have them both on one team ;)
But after saying all that, im perfectly happy with staal. I couldnt imagine suddenly being the #1 guy after missing half a season and training camp; when his teamates were already up and running. He has more in him in the next couple of years. cant wait :)
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Pretty easy to say that a guy with a 100 point season may have hit his finest statistical season, and the guy that has barely cracked half a point per game might have some upside left. Not particularly persuasive.
Staal was a core piece of a Cup winner, sure, but Toews was a Conn Smythe and Olympic MVP. You can harp on Staal’s defensive acumen, but Toews is right there with him. He was the shutdown C for Canada in the only best-on-best tournament in the world. He shut everyone down. Completely. If that’s not good enough D, I’m not sure what is. He also put up great offensive numbers, enough to get him that Tournament MVP. I know you have a vested interest in your boy, but Toews is the easy choice. In hindsight, Toews should have been the 1 overall. Everyone that passed on him should feel a little shame. Just because “it worked out” for PIT doesn’t make it the best pick. How much better could it “have worked out” with Toews on the Pens? I’m glad I don’t have to see. Team Canada won Gold, but that doesn’t mean leaving Stamkos off the team was the right move. I feel the same way about the Staal/Toews situation.
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Yes, it’s very easy to look at results and assume that everything was done correctly. That is a very simplistic, and illogical, way of looking at things.
"It's a great day for hockey!" - "Badger" Bob Johnson
by PolishProdigy on Apr 8, 2011 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Well put
Actually what inspired me to write this was how well Staal had been playing recently. I wanted to see how he matched up with his draft class…the article was the result.
Bottom line for me is that Staal has fit in well with this group, and I have a feeling that’s what Shero had in mind for the pick, considering he already had two gamebreakers under club control at that time.
Glad it’s inspired this discussion though! That was the intention all along.
"It's a great day for hockey!" - "Badger" Bob Johnson
by PolishProdigy on Apr 8, 2011 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Bottom line is Shero would pick Toews over Staal if he had a re-do. It’s crazy talk that even in hindsight you would pick Staal over Toews because, we already have two gamebreakers. You know what’s better than two gamebreakers? THREE of them.
The other bottom line is, anyone that says Shero F’d up by taking Staal when he did, with the information he had, is also wrong. There are no do-overs, we all have 20-20 hindsight (most of us do at least) I can’t fault Shero for picking Staal when he did, but I promise you he didn’t pass Toews up because he felt he already had too many great players.
by AronV on Apr 8, 2011 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
I thought for sure he was going to pick Toews, mostly because he fit a hole that the Penguins needed — that being a two-way center. Maybe he just liked Staal’s size over Toews (not like he’s a tiny guy).
The other thing you’d have to think about if he had chosen Backstrom — where are the wingers? I mean, if you’d have Crosby, Malkin, and Backstrom, who would play on their lines? Who would get the third-best RW? What kind of players could they afford that would be on the third line? The power play would be amazing, but even strength — where you’re playing most of the time in the playoffs — would be strange.
The one thing you have to admit, though — Backstrom, Toewes, Kessel, Staal — are all really good players.
The other thing you’d have to think about if he had chosen Backstrom — where are the wingers?
Malkin would play RW.
And yes, totally agree on all the Top 4 forwards in that year’s draft being really good players. Can’t really complain w/ any of them, although I would rather have one of the 3 centres over the wing.
We also have to see where these guys are in a few years. Toews is realizing his potential now. Staal seems to still have some more to offer. He is already stout defensively, and plays a physical game, but is slowly figuring out to use his size (realizing that he is bigger than most players and using it to his advantage). He is the power forward type, where his offensive development may be slower and he may develop into a offensive powerhouse in 2-3 years.
Also comparing Staals pts per game to that of Backstrom is not fair. Stall had Malkin on his side a little when they first entered and for a game or two this season. Otherwise he’s been the third line guy. If he were playing with Crosby, he’d be close to a point per game player (Ovechkin has been flanking Backstrom for a few years).
In hindsight, I think you always hope you get the best player available. If nothing else, you then flip that guy for more assets. I don’t think Staal was the best available, but close enough.
My blog and Twitter, featuring coverage of the most frustrating team in the NHL
If you don't know how to use Timeonice, read this.
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"Numbers don't lie, they just don't agree with you"--George E. Ays
If I reference a lot of stats, just assume I haven't seen anything to contradict or invalidate them.
For this particular team and all needs considered (money and all...)
Hands down, Staal gets the pick every time.
by LightningCoach on Apr 8, 2011 9:42 AM EDT reply actions
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