Looking Ahead: The 2011 NHL Draft
by stoopidtom on May 29, 2011 6:41 PM EDT
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PrintAs the playoffs wind down and we edge closer and closer to crowning another Stanley Cup champion, the NHL draft is right around the corner. I figured this year I would take the initiative and cover some of the NHL draft. After the jump, I give you the lowdown on the upcoming draft.
This years draft will take place from June 24-25 at the Xcel Center in St. Paul, Minnesota, which will be the first time Minnesota has hosted the draft since the North Stars hosted the 1989 draft.
This is how the top 14 order looks:
9. Boston Bruins (from Toronto)
10. Minnesota Wild
11. Colorado Avalanche (from St. Louis)
13. Calgary Flames
14. Dallas Stars
The order, for those who don't know, is based on regular season point totals and playoff finishes. The 30th place team receives the first overall pick. However, since 1985, when the penguins "supposedly" intentionally lost games in order to secure the first pick to select Mario Lemieux, there has been a draft lottery. The lottery is between the 14 teams that did not make the playoffs and the winner gets to move up four spots. The 30th place team has a 25% chance of winning, with the odds diminishing to .5% for the 16th place team. This year, the New Jersey Devils won the lottery, moving up from the 8th pick to the 4th pick. The rest of the spots are determined by playoff finishes, which I will wait until the playoffs are over to talk about them.
Now for the prospects...
This years debate does not roll off the tongue so easily as last years. Instead of Taylor or Tyler, we have Nugent-Hopkins or Larsson or Landeskog or Couturier. Keep in mind, take the NHL comparisons with a grain of salt. It is just comparing their playing styles, not talent ceiling. Here are some of the top prospects...
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, C: Red Deer (WHL)- Comparable: Joe Sakic, Pavel Datsyuk
Photo courtesy of Canada Hky, via Wikimedia Commons
RNH is probably one of the most talented playmakers to come along in recent years. He has incredible passing abilities and some scouts have been comparing his on-ice vision to that of Wayne Gretzky. His 1-on-1 play is also outstanding and he has a very accurate shot. Also, to go along with his incredible offensive ability, he is also very responsible defensively. To go along with his on-ice abilities, he has very good intangibles. He has a great work ethic and a compete level that is off the charts. Only knock on him is he could stand to bulk up and add more strength To sum up, RNH is a complete player who would look good on any team that drafted him.
Adam Larsson, D: Skelleftea (Swedish Elite League)- Comparable: Victor Hedman, Niklas Lidstrom
Photo courtesy of Canada Hky, via Wikimedia Commons
Larsson has been called one of the best skaters in this year's draft with very smooth skating ability and excellent mobility while having a large 6'3" 200lb frame. Thiis shy kid from northern Sweden is very good at distributing and handling the puck and is a great outlet passer. At the point, he is calm and patient, and has a cannon shot. Although he is not known for his physical play, he does not shy away from delivering an occasional big hit. He is very intelligent in his own end and has very good recoverability. The fact he has been playing in Sweden's top league against bigger and stronger competition suggests he could make an immediate impact in the NHL.
Gabriel Landeskog, RW: Kitchener (OHL)- Comparable: Mike Richards, Jarome Iginla
Photo courtesy of bridgetds on Flickr, via Wikimedia Commons
The stereotype about European players is that they are soft. Not this one. A power forward by trade from Stockholm, Landeskog is probably the most complete player in this year's draft. One of his best qualities is his natural goal scoring ability, that can not be taught. He has a large frame along with great skating ability, and he plays with a strong physical edge. Although he on-ice qualities are great, his intangibles are off the charts. He is the captain of his team, the Kitchener Rangers, which is unheard of for an import player, showing he is a strong leader. Landeskog has an incredible work ethic and never takes a shift off.
Sean Couturier, C: Drummondville (QMJHL)- Comparable: Jason Arnott, Evgeni Malkin
Photo courtesy of dansallows.com
The son of former career LA Kings minor-leaguer Sylvain Couturier, few expect the same career from Sean as his father. He is considered to be the best player to come out of the Q since our own Sid the Kid. Couturier has all the tools that are coveted in the NHL. A playmaker by trade, he is also, like Landeskog, a very complete player. He has size, speed, strength, puck skills, a good shot, soft hands, work ethic, and intangibles. Basically everything an NHL team could want from its #1 center.
All of these guys have a good argument to go number one overall. Which one will go first overall? I will be debuting my first mock draft (1-10) some time soon.
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almost positive we are at #23
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by TonyAndrock on May 29, 2011 11:51 PM EDT up reply actions
How does that ranking work for playoff teams? Is it not in the order they lose during the playoffs?
"Those goals just rip the heart right out of your stomach." - Edzo
Some of it is where they ended up, but there is a lottery portion and some other rules. Here is the rule I found. If someone has one that is better, please do post
•The 14 teams that missed the playoffs during the previous NHL season hold the first 14 picks. They draft in order of fewest points to most points, subject to the results of the draft lottery (see below).
•The current Stanley Cup champion picks last (30th).
•The Stanley Cup runner-up picks 29th.
•The other two Conference Finalists pick 28th and 27th.
•Regular-season division winners hold the other lowest positions.
•Remaining teams draft in order of fewest points to most points from the previous regular season.
The Draft Lottery
The selection order in the first round is subject to a lottery, held among the teams that hold the top 14 picks. There is only one winning team in the lottery. That team moves up a maximum of four places in the draft order. The lottery is weighted to favor the teams with the fewest points. It was introduced to prevent a weak team from deliberately losing to guarantee itself a high draft pick.
these top 5 prospects are great, and we’re gonna see most of them in the League sooner rather than later, but when do we talk who would we want to be the Pens’ first round pick? maybe a bit early still, or?
You have to see it for yourself...
Pretty soon here. The draft combine is this week for all the top players to be tested and interviewed, so expect some stuff.
SB Nation is doing a mock draft, two picks a day starting in early June. When it gets close (and we see who’s still left on the board) I’ll throw up some little profiles of the potentially available and we can all debate the choices before I turn the pick in and make it official.
"Game's the same. Just got more fierce."
by Hooks Orpik on May 31, 2011 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions
All of these guys have a good argument to go number one overall. Which one will go first overall? I will be debuting my first mock draft (1-10) some time soon.
That’s pretty cool, I look forward to seeing more. You were pretty bold in comparing RNH to Gretzky, but hey, there’s something to be said for that.
Personally I think a guy you just missed off profiling – Jonathan Huberdeau might end up being better than a few guys on this list. He was very impressive in the Memorial Cup.
"Game's the same. Just got more fierce."
i’m guessing the least likely to go #1 on that list is Landeskog. No knock on him, he just doesn’t have as high a ceiling as the other guys.
Huberdeau was already top 10, he’s definitely moved up in the top 5 after the Memorial Cup performance. He’s also on the light side kind of like RNH isn’t he?
Huberdeau is listed at 6-1 170 in his NHL.com draft profile (fairly sure that is from Central Scouting info). It’s part of the reason some compare him to Patrick Kane… skinny as a rail with flat-out sick hands.
Oops, forgot about Landeskog...
I agree that most see him with a somewhat lower ceiling in terms of offensive production. But, he was very impressive when I saw him play in Erie… very complete player, a real puckhound, definitely looks to have enough speed/skill to be a very good player in the NHL. I didn’t know much about him going into the game (also around Thanksgiving 2010) and was expecting to pay more attention to Ryan Murphy, who didn’t impress me all that much despite early hype. By the end of the game I was wondering who the guy with the funny name was…
I’m hoping RW Joel Armia falls after some underwhelming showings in tourney play. But it would be a big drop for a guy who’s been talked about as a top-10 guy for some time. He’s a big (6-3) offensive-minded winger who scouts praise for getting the puck & himself to the net (and he happens to be right-handed to boot). Putting up good scoring numbers for an young guy playing in the Finnish league.
Shero, draft a European that plays in Europe? Hah!
I’d like to see Nicklas Jensen drop. He’s from Denmark but plays in Canada and seems to be a good power forward type prospect.
"Game's the same. Just got more fierce."
I can see Jensen being available… I think Armia at 23 is wishful thinking. Do you really think Shero is that Euro-averse? My sarcasm detector is in the shop…
Shero’s made 30 draft picks since taking over. He’s drafted 3 European players* Timo Seppanen (round 7 2006), Alex Pechursiky (Round 5 in 2008), Viktor Ekbom (Round 6 in ’09).
*(this obviously doesn’t count a guy like Kuhnhackl, who is European but going to play Junior hockey in NA)
I don’t think Shero’s prejudiced against European players or anything like that, but the Pens draft strategy seems pretty clear. Scouting time and budgets are allocated a lot more to North America. And if you look at Shero’s background (from Nashville) that makes sense- draft mostly big, mostly physical players, which just tend to be Canadians/Americans, generally speaking.
The perfect example is not drafting Stan Galiev, a dynamic offensive weapon in order to take a “safer” hard-working, less skilled North American like Bryan Rust. Another good example could be drafting Kuhnhackl over Teemu Pulkkinen, a well regarded Finnish player. (Who Detroit took the very next pick, to my exasperation).
I’m obviously not privy to the Pens overall rankings, but I get the sense if they liked two players about the same, a guy who’s a collegiate or CHL player (like a Jensen, Boone Jenner, J.T Miller, etc) is going to get the edge over a European player more often than not. They scout the Americas more and obviously have made it more than a habit.
I wouldn’t mind seeing that change, but the global scouting community has made leaps and bounds- hard to find that Zetterberg or Datsyuk late-round European gem these days.
"Game's the same. Just got more fierce."
Thanks for expanding on your comment. I know the organization has displayed a preference for CHL or collegiate players who lean more towards the big/physical profile. But I think Shero would pull the trigger on any player from any country/league, provided they don’t have a reputation for being lazy or being a bad apple… that’s his real sticking point, IMO.
Yeah it’s definitely personally based on the player. If a top 10-15 guy like Armia dropped to 23 I’m sure they’d swipe him in a heartbeat, provided he was tops on the list. (Both those scenarios seem unlikely, but I guess you never know how wide-open a draft could be).
It’s just there are natural advantages to drafting college/CHL players. College players can be kept for 4 years (better than Euro or CHL) so you have a better idea of how good he is when it’s time to decide. CHL players are easier to scout once drafted, giving NHL teams more chances to watch and evaluate them. If the Pens draft a European kid they’re probably only going to see him a few times and only probably 1 scout will watch him. If they draft a player from Ontario, chances are you’re going to be able to have a lot more people watch him a lot more closely.
Also for the summer development camp, it’s logistically easier and more likely the Pens can get American/Canadians into Pittsburgh rather than Finns, Swedes, Russians who often train differently with different schedules and start times for their seasons.
"Game's the same. Just got more fierce."
All good points and I’m sure they play a part in the organization’s decision making. I’d love the see the Pens hit it big with one of these later 1st round picks and inject some more high-end skill into the team, but it takes a lot falling to place for that to happen.
Hell, the more I have to couch every evaluation in uncertainty, the more I warm up to the idea of trading the pick to a team looking to rebuild. But that’s an entirely different and equally “when the planets align” scenario.
I have to think RNH goes #1. He’s the Canadian boy and most people have him #1 (not a huge majority, but a majority nonetheless).
Zack Phillips is one guy to watch. He played a lot with Huberdeau and Galiev on Saint John’s top line, and is ranked #15 North American. He might fall into the 20s (one of the NHL.com mock drafts has him going to the Capitals).
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If I reference a lot of stats, just assume I haven't seen anything to contradict or invalidate them.
I like Zack Phillips. He had a good year and looked good at the Memorial Cup despite playing with a shoulder injury reportedly sustained during the playoffs. I would love to have seen him at full strength and ability. What I saw was a grittier player than Galiev or Jurco, with fewer of those amazing moves, but with great ability to find other players on the ice – a smart player.
I just worry about how good those other two made Zack look. I’m a big fan of going for the best player on a team ( at least with a first round pick), than a 2nd or 3rd or 6th best as in the case of this stacked team.
That is definitely a concern. But, he did look steady with some good instincts. Huberdeau is pretty amazing, but Galiev is all over the ice. Phillips seemed to be able to find him and get him and Huberdeau the puck. No knock on Galiev, by the way. He is exciting to watch with a great shot, great moves and incredible speed. But, he is all over the place and tends to try to do it all at times. Phillips seem to be a good mix with him.
As an aside….it really is amazing how many great players are showing such skill at 17 and 18 years old. Every once in a while, as I dissect a player’s play, I remind myself that he is the same age as my daughter and I’m amazed all over again at the incredible skill and poise under pressure so many of these kids have
How about any of the Pittsburgh boys that are at the combine. At least 2 of them could go top 10. Any chance if they don’t of the Pens drafting them?
The Hockey Dr.
I would really like Brandon Saad, but it’s hard to tell if he would be available. After pick 11, it seems like anybody’s guess where the rest go.
by stoopidtom on Jun 3, 2011 1:03 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
forgive me if i’m wrong, but i think i remember hearing a rumor that there wasn’t a whole lot of interest in saad, actually. maybe i made that up.
sidney crosby is better than me.
There is interest, but word I’m hearing is that Saad was pretty unfocused and didn’t use much of his size or talent on many nights this year. Which is why every ranking has had him drop over the course of the season.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Saad got drafted 12th, 26th or any place in between. He definitely has size and skill, just depends on which team thinks he is worth taking a flyer on to bet his ability and hope he can turn things around.
"Game's the same. Just got more fierce."
I think a lot of hockey people expected Saad to perform better in the OHL than he did, which wasn’t bad, especially for a newcomer to the junior scene. Like Hooks said, the inconsistency and performance relative to expectations — maybe they were too high? — lowered his stock somewhat. If he had a good combine, I’m willing to bet he’s off the board before the Pens pick.
If he’s available, it will be very interesting to see what Shero does since Saad has many qualities the organization likes and is a hometown kid, which is probably of minor consequence… Pens aren’t in dire need of good PR.
trade up?
i’d love to see the Penguins trade up this year
their 2nd round picks almost never seem to pan out
and they have been excellent at signing 3rd round-type talents as free agents
any thoughts on this?
i know CLS wants out of the #8 spot.
maybe sign and trade Talbot and a couple picks or something like that.
last year...Tarasenko
was hoping they would trade up LAST year and nab Tarasenko…
who was still available at #16
St. Louis traded up to get him — FLA dealt away the pick (why do they ALWAYS seem to do the exact wrong thing?) — and I have to say I love that move for them. He’s their #1 prospect, and while he’s spending another year in Russia, by all accounts he should be in the NHL next season and is already ready to make hay.
i know CLS wants out of the #8 spot.
maybe sign and trade Talbot and a couple picks or something like that.
They want a front-line NHL player (like a top six center or a good playmaking defenseman) more than they want out of the pick. I don’t think Talbot and a pick or two would be enough to move up from 23rd. Unless they get a good upgrade, I don’t think CBS deals and the only piece the Pens have that they’d want would be a Staal or Letang, and that trade obviously wouldn’t be happening.
"Game's the same. Just got more fierce."
to piggy back on this…Columbus is looking at Jeff Carter for that 8th pick. Jeff Carter is a heck of a lot better than Talbot plus anything we have picks wise.
CLS is desperate for a puck-moving defenceman.
what about Nisky and the Pens 1st AND 2nd round picks?
i’m NOT saying that’s a good offer — for either/both sides — just throwing out ideas.
re: trading, my sense is that when there is a will there is a way.
and CLS is open to moving out of the #8 slot.
Niskanen is hardly a good enough asset to move down from 8 to 23 in a draft where the top 8-10 players are very strong. I appreciate you throwing out ideas, but I don’t see how this could make sense for Columbus. They don’t need more draft picks…they’re at a point where they need productive NHL’ers in order to get into the playoffs….I don’t think Nisky is going to tip the scales in getting there. Jeff Carter on the other hand and his 30+ goals….is another matter entirely.
With regard to Voracek, he’s starting to remind me of Zherdev for them…a guy that really should be putting up better numbers but for some reason just can’t put it all together.
does that sound to you like they’re freeing up a roster spot for Despres eventually, or is it just me?
You have to see it for yourself...
sounds like they’d like to free up ~$1M in cap space more than anything
more than just Despres, it sounds like they like the D-corps they are developing on the farm — w/ Strait and Bortuzzo esp. also being possibilities this year
but again, its just a rumor, so who knows if anything will happen
#5 pick in the 1st round
also hearing that the Isles are considering trading their 1st round pick — #5
for the record, Edmonton is listening to offers for the #1 overall pick as well. I think any team would consider making a deal if it’s beneficial for them. We have nothing to offer to get a top 5 pick though.
Here’s an idea…
To Pittsburgh: 5th overall pick
To Islanders: Matt Niskanen and rights to play at the Consol Energy Center
by stoopidtom on Jun 15, 2011 10:03 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
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