Are the Penguins' Wingers better than they get credit for?
by Hooks Orpik on Jul 18, 2011 12:14 PM EDT
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Ask anyone the weak spot of the Pittsburgh Penguns, and other than health, you'll the perceived weakness on the wing.
Dan Bylsma has hinted that in crunch time and the playoffs, the Pens will use their successful three center model. Meaning Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Jordan Staal would all center separate lines to give the Pens that unique advantage of strength down the middle.
Tying up that much money on separate lines obviously has affected what a team can spend elsewhere. But general manager Ray Shero has done well to see that he doesn't have a "helicopter" team (as in, no wings).
--Alex Goligoski was traded for James Neal. Neal, who struggled without a playmaking center in Pittsburgh is still 23 years old and has scored 24, 27, 22 goals in his three NHL seasons. Pens fans writing him off as a bum are going to be in for a surprise when he starts potting goals next year aside a skilled center.
--Chris Kunitz, somewhat quietly, ended up with a 60 point pace on the season. Injuries took him down to 66 games and 48 points, and injuries always seems to be a concern with the style Kunitz plays. But that style is the perfect one for Bylsma's system and the price to pay for playing such a physical game.
--Neal and Kunitz factor into being today's definition of power forwards, in terms of goals, shots and hits. If both stay healthy, they ought to definitely make this list next season. Over the course of this study there are only an average of 11 defined power forwards per season. If the Pens put two names on the list, that's a tribute to the style of play they like to employ, but also strength on the wing.
--Steve Sullivan was signed from Nashville and is something of a mixed bag. On the pro side Sully is a proven goal/point producer when he can stay in the lineup and has pretty good hands. On the con side Sully is 5'8, 37 years old and has only played in 293 out of a possible 492 games since the lockout ended. His injury past is checkered, but he did play in 82 games in the '09-10 season, so it's not as if he's that removed from a full year.
--Tyler Kennedy and Matt Cooke will return and be the two most interesting wingers to watch, for different reasons. Kennedy put together a fine statistical season and was one of the offense's main engines when the stars went down to injury. Will he got a shot to play a top 6 role with a Crosby or Malkin? And if so, can he continue to score goals?
Cooke, as we all know, has had to face a stark reality- change the way you play, or you're out. It may be simple to a fan "just don't be an asshole and stop blatantly making bad hits, Cookie", but it's not that simple. Cooke's made it to the NHL because he plays a certain way. And he's been employed in the NHL for 13 seasons now under three teams and any number of coaches who have drilled into his head to keep it simple, finish his checks, play hard, skate through players, etc, etc. It's not so simple as to just flip a switch and become a model citizen, Cooke has to find that line where he can be effective and true to his game but still toe the line of common decency and ditch the cheapshots.
--Left out in the noise is Pascal Dupuis, a guy who can play 1st line to 3rd line, left wing or right and quietly go about his business. Dupuis' hands will never allow him to be a reliable point-producer, so it's probably time he is removed from Crosby's line, but Duper is still immensely valuable. His speed will create chances, his defensive positioning and awareness is superb and Dupuis will add some veteran leadership and confidence for what can be a young and emotional locker-room.
--On the younger side: Eric Tangradi has bulked up to 230 pounds and is developing slowly but surely into an NHL player. Dustin Jeffrey is becoming comfortable as a winger and has a lot of promise as well, and the organization is high on the late blooming Nick Johnson.
Winger won't be the strength of the Penguins, given their current roster, but it's an under-estimated group of players. To see how little the Pens have gotten from their wingmen, here's a chart of post-lockout points:
The Pens have only had a winger or two score 45+ points in a season. For 2011-12, you'd have to say 4 have the skill and opportunity to do so (Neal, Kunitz, TK, Sullivan). Injuries and cold-streaks could derail some of them, but the fact is the Pens probably have more depth down the flanks at this moment more than any other time since the lockout.
For Team Helicopter, that's not so bad.
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No.
I’m just kidding. I don’t see a problem with our Wingers this coming year. I think they are all more than capable of potting their fair share (rhyming rules) of goals to help contribute. To be honest, I hope the D gets more involved with players like Letang getting hot and staying hot, or at least consistent, like he was at the beginning of last season, and I’m hoping Martin finds his place on the team this year.
From what I have heard from interviews with Shero, he feels confident in this group of forwards. I have heard some media types on the radio saying we may need to trade a top 4 defenseman to get a winger. I don’t see the logic in taking away from one of our biggest strengths in our top 4. The way our defense plays, especially Letang, they are like having a 4th forward out there.
A healthy Crosby ought to make for a more productive Letang.
I don’t see the Pens trading Orpik or Michalek, a lot of fans like to speculate about moving Martin, if only to clear his cap number, but I see that as incredibly unlikely (and foolish).
The Pens had one of the best defenses in the NHL and already made the move to ship out Goligoski for a young goal-scoring forward. Better to watch that unfold next season than to mess with things anymore.
"Game's the same. Just got more fierce."
by Hooks Orpik on Jul 18, 2011 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Ever since that first suggestion of trading Martin came up I thought it was ridiculous. They wouldn’t have signed him to such a deal if they didn’t think and didn’t know what he was capable of. Shero has scouts at his disposal, we don’t.
The first year in a new system is always tough, especially for defensmen. A lot of people saw his signing as a replacement for Gonchar. Martin is not as gifted offensively, but can move the puck well and skate well and is much better defensively. I expect a better season from him on both ends of the ice this year. I look for the Martin/Michalek pairing to contribute a decent bit on offense.
by StripesForLife on Jul 18, 2011 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions
I totally agree with you, especially coming from such a boring, vanilla system like New Jersey to the Penguins where you are encouraged to get involved as a defenseman? No, he’s going to make things happen, I’m sure of it.
Martin isn’t a flashy player either. He can’t rush the puck like a Letang. He doesn’t make big hits like Orpik. He doesn’t so blatantly block every shot like Michalek.
But in terms of positioning, stick-checking Martin’s one of the best in the biz. Subtle, but very effective.
Though he can skate really well and moves the puck accurately, Martin doesn’t really shine in many attributes. He’s just overall a very proficient player and that can be easy to over-look and get frustrated with since all the other top defensemen stand out easier with their respective eye-catching skillset.
"Game's the same. Just got more fierce."
by Hooks Orpik on Jul 18, 2011 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
A brand new Jaguar is like a Ford Focus or Honda Accord but better.
"Game's the same. Just got more fierce."
by Hooks Orpik on Jul 18, 2011 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
I don’t like your tone when referring to Rob Scuderi.
by AlexStitch on Jul 18, 2011 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
was about to say that he’s like Eaton, only better in every aspect… but to compare anyone to Rob Scuderi… nooo!:)
You have to see it for yourself...
Hah! I love that comparison (even though it is well deserved as both are beasts).
Mario Lemieux is better than you.
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by AllieLXXXVII on Jul 18, 2011 7:09 PM EDT up reply actions
You know I’m a big Martin fanboy and I blame the Devils for hurting Team USA’s chances in the Olympics. I definitely agree with that characterization. He reminds me a lot of Ryan Suter, just not as good (no shame in that). I think if PIT wanted to talk about getting rid of Martin they’d have no shortage of suitors.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
The only people talking about getting rid of Martin are fans seeing his high cap hit combined with 3 other good defensemen and Simon Despres on the doorstep.
No way Shero deals a high-end UFA a year after signing him, that’s a bad sign to send. In losing Gonchar and signing Martin for the same cap number, I think fans wanted to see flashy offensive replacement. That’s not Martin’s game. But it doesn’t mean he can’t be as effective.
Your point is right- any number of teams would love to add Martin, but the reason they’d want him is the same reason Pittsburgh can benefit from his services.
If/when Despres proves to be a top 4 NHL’er, maybe the Pens have to think about moving a defenseman. I just don’t see Martin being the moveable piece, but that doesn’t fit in with most Pens’ fans narrative right now.
"Game's the same. Just got more fierce."
by Hooks Orpik on Jul 21, 2011 9:28 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I see no problem with being patient with Despres. He looks good, you don’t have an immediate need. Let him dominate the AHL and then bring him up when it makes sense.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
Yeah, that’s been the path for every Pens big-time d prospect from Orpik to Whitney to Letang….They’ve all played in the AHL for longer than their level of play necessitated and I’m sure that will happen for Despres too.
Especially with Valabik and A. Picard, plus Strait who’s tasted NHL and Bortuzzo who’s about ready as well. No reason or need to rush Despres, as it should be. Don’t want a Steve Eminger/Luca Sbisa situation.
"Game's the same. Just got more fierce."
by Hooks Orpik on Jul 22, 2011 10:18 AM EDT up reply actions
I actually think the New Jersey system is much tougher to play in since it’s so structured. The Pens play more flowing system and it’s easier to make up for mistakes in coverage.
by StripesForLife on Jul 18, 2011 7:07 PM EDT up reply actions
The Pens system would be more difficult because you are always go, go, go! Yes on paper the devils system seems harder but physically the Penguins are always pushing forward and commanding the play!
by MrChadysPens on Jul 19, 2011 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions
That’s my point. By always moving you are going to make mistakes, but also be able to cover up those mistakes easier. It takes the mental aspect out of the system. With the Devils always trapping, there is more standing around and reacting on what happens.
No matter what you do in life, it’s always easier to do what your instincts tell you as opposed to taking a second to think about what you have to do.
by StripesForLife on Jul 19, 2011 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions
I guess when you look at it that way lol
by MrChadysPens on Jul 19, 2011 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Depends how you define “tougher to play in.” You need more discipline to stay in that structure, but it’s also difficult to work with less structure and respond on the fly. There’s more data to process when you aren’t positive where everyone else is.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
Absolutely. Martin has said publicily the move from a restrictive system in NJ to a more open system like Pittsburgh was an adjustment. I’d say Bylsma’s system for defensemen is just as structured as the NJ way, but it does allow for more free thinking and to read the play and react at possible.
At the end of the day, like we both know, any defenseman’s job is to get the puck in his own zone and, as quickly as possible, move the puck to a scoring zone. To that extent, it’s not so different.
"Game's the same. Just got more fierce."
No, but having a system for so long and then all of a sudden totally changing gears is definitely going to be tough. All the second nature things you know about where your help is and what your responsibilities are suddenly change. Hockey players are best when they aren’t thinking.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
Yeah, sit on that strength, for sure. PIT’s Ws will be fine if the Cs stay healthy. They look to be better this year than they have in a while. The Pens are still on the short list of favorites in the East, and should be the favorite for the Atlantic.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
That’s smart. The Atlantic division always is a dogfight, and winning it isn’t crucial, but sure is advantageous for playoff seeding. On paper, I agree, give Pittsburgh a healthy Crosby+Malkin and they ought to be the favorite, but far from a guarantee.
"Game's the same. Just got more fierce."
It is remarkable how quickly people forget the whole reason we brought in Martin & Michalek — after a 2009-10 playoffs where our most obvious and biggest weakness was on defense. I agree with you: I really don’t see the point in weakening our defense for the sake of a winger.
Jagr? I don't even know 'er.
by PopRocks on Jul 18, 2011 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
To me it’s more about a right-handed shot that could score pp goals on the off-wing than anything else. The 3 center model is a proven winner epsecially at 5 on 5.
Is it October yet?
To me it’s more about a right-handed shot that could score pp goals on the off-wing than anything else
Sullivan, Steve.
The 3 center model is a proven winner epsecially at 5 on 5.
While that’s true, the Staal-Malkin project has had zero opportunity to flourish. I’d imagine that’s tried so we can see if that becomes a “proven winner” as well.
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by AllieLXXXVII on Jul 18, 2011 7:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Since I'm late to the party...
Neal is the biggest question mark here. If he can find a way to score ~25G/~55P next season (and continue that in the post-season), the trade will be worth it. if he comes in with ‘10/11 Kennedy-esque numbers or less, he’s a bust. I honestly can’t give a prediction either way, but I liked Neal’s willingness to play in the WC’s for Canada and scoring 2G/3A in 6 games (matching Rick Nash).
I’ve already given my huge thumbs-up to the Sullivan deal given the low price tag. If he scores 20 goals and gets anywhere near 50 points, It’s a win. Probably because 10 of those goals comes on the left side of the power-play, making everyone else on that unit more effective.
Kunitz is a known quantity. I’ll be interested to see what kind of deal he gets next year as a UFA. If he has a healthy season (75 games or more), and he pots 20+ goals, he’s getting over $4M/yr from the Sabres to replace Jochen Hecht. The Pens won’t match that in order to extend Crosby and Staal (and perhaps Neal as an RFA).
I’m not as bullish on Tangradi as some others are, but I like the work he’s putting in to make the NHL squad.
One guy I don’t want to forget about is Paul Thompson. Big kid, right-handed, great shot, and was a Hobey Baker finalist at UNH last year. If anyone becomes the surprise call-up like Vitale was last year, here’s my nomination. I’d rather see him in WBS scoring 30 goals next season as a 22yo prospect, but if Kunitz is gone next year and Tangradi/Veilleux/Johnson don’t cut it, Thompson’s a possibility.
DUE TO THE LENGTH OF NHL HOCKEY
SKATE ELECTRIC WILL NOT BE SEEN
It’s funny you mentioned Thompson. He did some nice work at the Prospect Game, and though I didn’t know who he was while watching, I kept seeing him be in the right place at the right time. I would like seeing him start in WB/S and then, if need be, he gets a chance to come to the big club for a few games. He could very well be a huge, pleasant surprise.
Your right about Kunitz. This year is going to tell a lot about his future with the team. I think they can afford to bring him back though. Crosby is a separate case, and he and Staal cannot be extended until next July anyway. Neal and Tangradi will be the ones to dictate whether or not it’s worth bringing Kunitz back. I personally wouldn’t mind bringing him back for 2 yr/$9 mill or 3 yr/$13.
by StripesForLife on Jul 18, 2011 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Scratch that
Kunitz is one of those guys who could be brought back at an artificial cap hit on a long term deal. I wouldn’t mind seeing that at all from him.
by StripesForLife on Jul 18, 2011 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Shero’s long-term strategy is centered around locking up Crosby and Malkin to long-term deals, and possibly Staal as well. Crosby and Staal can be signed next July, which affects Shero’s calculus when he’s negotiating with Kunitz next June.
And all of this is dependent upon the new CBA to be hammered out before the ‘12/’13 season. If the cap goes up to $65M (which I’m betting on) and the maximum salary is increased dramatically, the price for Crosby skyrockets. Same goes for Malkin’s extension talks in two years’ time, assuming he returns to top form.
DUE TO THE LENGTH OF NHL HOCKEY
SKATE ELECTRIC WILL NOT BE SEEN
Edit: That should’ve read—
If the cap goes up to $68M …
It’s currently at $64.3M, and under the new CBA I’m sure Fehr and the NHLPA will require another $4M increase due to the rich broadcasting deal with NBC.
DUE TO THE LENGTH OF NHL HOCKEY
SKATE ELECTRIC WILL NOT BE SEEN
We’ll see. They can require all they want – the players also fought tooth and nail against any cap and look at us now.
I would think the owners try to roll things back, and owners usually have a better track-record in negotiations. Then their manager’s shoot them in the foot with bad deals and the loopholes.
"Game's the same. Just got more fierce."
I don’t think Bettman has had to deal with Donald Fehr in the past, and the players are going to use the upcoming NFL and NBA deals as a signpost. If both of those leagues increase player payouts significantly, the NHL is going to have to give in somewhat in order to avoid another lockout when the league’s popularity is growing. With the new NBC deal, the NHLPA has a heck of a lot of leverage. The owners would stand to lose a lot of revenue with a work stoppage, and the players know it.
DUE TO THE LENGTH OF NHL HOCKEY
SKATE ELECTRIC WILL NOT BE SEEN
We’ll see. The NBA players are certainly going to be making concessions on their overall % of compensation, and the NFL cap this season will be down from last year (though other more complicated compromises may not make it a bad deal for them).
The hockey owners have killed 1.5 seasons in the past, what 15 years? If push comes to shove, I don’t see them being unable/unwilling to do it again.
But who knows, I’m usually pessimistic about labor negotiations. Hopefully they can make some relatively painless tweaks to ensure that all parties can succeed and keep growing the game.
"Game's the same. Just got more fierce."
But who knows, I’m usually pessimistic about labor negotiations. Hopefully they can make some relatively painless tweaks to ensure that all parties can succeed and keep growing the game.
This is my hope. But, in all honesty, it seems too good to be true.
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by AllieLXXXVII on Jul 18, 2011 7:19 PM EDT up reply actions
What about if either league, or both, decreases player share of revenue? And is the increase/decrease the salient point, or the total share % at the end of the day? I don’t personally see why it isn’t already a 50/50 proposition. Fucking lawyers.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
Lawyers man. Root of all evil.
No way I’d try to handicap what the next CBA looks like either. Surely some kind of contract term limits (5 years?) to nix the long-term Richards/Hossa/Kovalchuk front-loaded contracts.
But other than that, who knows how the revenue tug-of-war will go and how much owners or players will try to stick to their guns….Hopefully they can be reasonable and realize the game is growing and no one benefits from killing the cash cow…But that idealistic mindset has been proven wrong in the past.
"Game's the same. Just got more fierce."
Yeah, and the players feel the need to take a stand and not be steamrolled again. Hopefully Fehr doesn’t dig in and cause another lockout. They absolutely need to get the deal done, and I think both sides know that. I’m curious about what concessions the players are going to get. If the owners want to roll back the cap or increase the power of restricted free agency, it’s going to cost them on the negotiating table. What’s going the other way? I’m not really even clear on what the players want, the status quo, maybe? I see a lot of things the owners want to change.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
Yeah, who knows is right. I would imagine the players would want to fight the escrow percentages, and they’d always look to lower the UFA requirements. Otherwise the current agreement is pretty fair for them in terms of rising and guaranteed salaries.
Working in the players favor is that the owners fight is internal amongst themselves. The big market teams are making money hand over fist, but there’s just an many small market teams (PHO, DAL, formerly ATL, CBS, etc) that are struggling to stay solvent in the face of rapidly rising league revenues.
This CBA was supposed to even the playing field (and keep costs inline for fans, I might add) but that’s hardly been the case. It’s a league of have’s and have not’s, which is an unavoidable thing with 30 franchises in Gary Bettman’s world.
"Game's the same. Just got more fierce."
Players’ beef with the escrow is with themselves. Every time they vote for the escalator they vote to increase escrow.
I think every league deals with the owners’ revenue sharing debate. The NHL really needs to support weaker teams than the NFL does, though, so I hope the owners suck it up and deal for now.
I think the CBA did overall even the field. Teams like WAS and PIT both aren’t among the richest, but they have enough to spend to the cap. If they didn’t have the certainty of the cap (nobody can out-spend you at that level) maybe they don’t even try to spend that much. Lots of MLB teams operate like that.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
I could see Crosby taking exactly 8.7M a yr for however many years again. I dont think it will matter how much the cap goes up Crosby could get more elsewhere but wont leave and will sign for 8.7M which to me is a bargain!
by MrChadysPens on Jul 18, 2011 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Ovechkin makes $10M/yr until 2021. Crosby won’t take less money than that, and frankly, offering him less would probably be an insult. The cap’s likely increasing every year for the next decade due to the better financial position of the league, and the long-term inflationary track of the U.S. Dollar (something everyone forgets about in the cap calculus).
DUE TO THE LENGTH OF NHL HOCKEY
SKATE ELECTRIC WILL NOT BE SEEN
Crosby is not Ovechkin!! And Crosby is superstitious and all about the numbers which is how they came to his 8.7M contract in the first place. He could of had the moon but wants to win. It was Crosby who chose his numbers for his first big pay day!
by MrChadysPens on Jul 18, 2011 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions
I disagree. Crosby has way more endorsements than Ovechkin, so he doesn’t need the money. Add to that the values he has and he doesn’t need to make the same kind of money or more that an obnoxious choke artist who hasn’t won a Stanley Cup, who hasn’t won an Olympic Medal, and who is an overall ass clown makes.
+1
Although a lot of athletes need that kind of money though, because they already have that money spent.
by StripesForLife on Jul 18, 2011 6:55 PM EDT up reply actions
I see AO a lot, walking around in Eastern Europe. Not in person, but on billboards, etc. Not sure how much he gets from those. He has his NA deals as well. Works with IMG.
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by red army line on Jul 19, 2011 2:10 AM EDT up reply actions
I’m sure he makes more in endorsements than some on here imply, but Crosby makes more. That much I know. However, I don’t know what the actual number is.
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by AllieLXXXVII on Jul 19, 2011 2:48 AM EDT up reply actions
Crosby takes home 10 times the amount of money he makes from the Penguins from endorsements. He wont be looking to make a bigger splash then Ovie gauranteed! He is not that type of guy! He would rather win the cup 2-3 times more!
by MrChadysPens on Jul 18, 2011 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions
And I could see, and I hope, that Malkin would do the same. Geno seems smart enough to recognize that these last two season were not great, his value is down, and he knows not to ruin a good thing like what he has with Sid here in Pittsburgh. So while I could see him asking for maybe a little more, not trying to bust our bank.
Crosby takes home 10 times the amount of money he makes from the Penguins from endorsements
Crosby actually makes about $5 million per year in endorsements (lower number than even I expected), so that’s actually “only” about 50% of the $9 milllion per he makes with the Pens.
And, yes, I know you were exaggerating. Just throwing this out there for those who were wondering.
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by AllieLXXXVII on Jul 18, 2011 7:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Ovechkin makes $10M/yr until 2021. Crosby won’t take less money than that, and frankly, offering him less would probably be an insult.
Crosby was willing to sign for less than the 20% maximum salary a full year before his contract expired. And he knew at the time Ovechkin’s contract would expire at the same time.
If Crosby’s goal 4 years ago was to make more money than Ovechkin* he could have easily waited things out and seen how the market shook out. But he didn’t.
*And Crosby does make more than AO, easily, with endorsements.
I would agree that you don’t want to insult Sid, but he’s basically writing his contract anyways. I don’t see Crosby insulted if Shero approaches him- “hey, how would you feel about 12 years, $78 milliion ($6.5 cap hit).”
If Crosby wants a shorter deal, or is more interested in a similar cap hit as he has now, I don’t think it’s the biggest deal for either side. Crosby’s going to get what he wants, but from his personality and attitude, I don’t see him blowing up ala Patrick Roy if the team tosses a bunch of different ideas to him, to see what he may be willing to do.
"Game's the same. Just got more fierce."
LOL
I just pictured Roy and his last game as a Canadien, you made me spit my drink out!
by MrChadysPens on Jul 18, 2011 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions
I really don’t see Crosby being re-signed for less than the 8.7m cap hit. Even at max salary he’s a bargain (when healthy)
Sure. Any contract you sign Crosby to is a good one. If he wants $12 million, I have no problem with that.
The $6.5 million cap hit I haphazardly threw out there is absurdly low, and definitely not what anyone should expect, but knowing Crosby would it really be surprising if he kept close to the same contract? Wouldn’t too me.
"Game's the same. Just got more fierce."
You think Crosby would be “out of line” for asking for the max? He’s a generational talent, we are blessed that he’s on the Pens. The only thing that would tarnish his legacy is going to another team
It wouldn’t be a dick move for Crosby to request cap max, especially when he’s a UFA at the end of his contract. If the 20% salary is what he wants, he can name any one of 30 teams that will clear the room for it.
To me, it’s more of a nice thing if Crosby cuts the team a break, like he did by re-signing early for $1.3+ less per year than he could have gotten. Is it too much to ask for again? Maybe, but that’s up to the player and the team.
It’s delicate to for the Pens, if Crosby signs for $10 (or $12) million per year on his next contract, what does that mean for Malkin? You never want to part with such an elite talent like Malkin, but it’s hard to see Pittsburgh being able to matching him to Crosby’s next contract if they both are coming in near or at the max. Tying 40% of the cap to two players probably isn’t wise.
(Next season, for instance, 87 and 71 are about 27% of the salary cap)
"Game's the same. Just got more fierce."
Personally, I would hope that Malkin does not make the same as Crosby does if/when they are re-signed. Crosby is better than Malkin and deserves to make more.
Crosby's next contract
I agree w/ everything that Hooks has said, the most important being that Crosby can write his own contract.
My sense is that he’ll stick w/ the same cap hit: $8.7M. He likes the #. He trusts ownership to spend to the cap. And, above all else, he wants to win.
10 years, $87M.
(and yes, its just a WAG, but it makes some sense, too).
yea
but would he take it…
I’m thinking… probably not… his last contract he probably could have gotten more but took the same cap hit as Crosby did… I’m guessing he’ll go as low as Crosby will go, but no less.
But obviously, who knows.. if Malkin doesn’t turn around to be the player he was a couple seasons ago, he may not get 5 million a season…
There's an 87% chance this post is sarcasm...
I understand your point. I still think that Malkin has no business making the same amount of money Crosby does even if Crosby takes a pay cut. Malkin is a great player but he is not equal to Crosby.
So…less term, more cap hit.
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by red army line on Jul 19, 2011 2:11 AM EDT up reply actions
Personally, I would hope that Malkin does not make the same as Crosby does if/when they are re-signed. Crosby is better than Malkin and deserves to make more.
I couldn’t agree with this more. I don’t think it’s fair to Sid to have a lesser player on the team make as much as he does. However, I’m not ready for this just yet (if that makes any sense). Malkin’s got two years before his contact talks can even start; that’s two years to start dominating again. So, for me, it’s still a definite wait and see.
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by AllieLXXXVII on Jul 18, 2011 7:37 PM EDT up reply actions
The real interesting question is what happens if/when Crosby takes a discount. Does Malkin get required to take a discount? If Crosby goes for “market value,” then, sure, Malkin deserves less. But if Sid says “I’ll take 8.7” does that mean Malkin has to take 8.7 or less, even if he deserves more?
Obviously, this is all speculation.
That’s the big question.
There’s obviously a reason why in summer ‘08 Malkin accepted Crosby’s same salary when Geno himself was blossoming into an Art Ross and Conn Smythe winner.
Flatly, the Pens aren’t going to pay anyone more than Crosby. If Crosby takes $8.7 again, or $10.87, what does that mean for Malkin?
There’s reasons not to lock $20 mill into two players, we’ve seen that this year if either (or both) get injured the team is sunk.
Obviously Malkin is one of the top 5 most special players in the league, and you don’t trade him away lightly. But when a team has the #1 player in the league, they have another issue too.
Malkin’s future is up in the air, but a lot of people were convinced Pittsburgh couldn’t/wouldn’t get both stars signed for their second contracts. Everything is all speculation until the first domino falls- which would be what Crosby signs for next summer, assuming of course he does sign early next summer.
"Game's the same. Just got more fierce."
I don’t need to read it again, I wrote the damn thing. I’m saying why would he all of a sudden ask for a large amount of money which would hinder the team he plays and the team he wants to stay with. He wouldn’t be out of line, he’s definitely worth it, but that’s not his character either.
8.7M would be woth it even if he played half the season like last year but as long as it’s the second half ha!
by MrChadysPens on Jul 18, 2011 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Absurdity aside, the problem with Sid taking a lower-than-warranted salary is that it sets the bar for other players on the team. Obviously no one on the team will have a bigger contract than him. But suppose Sid signs for $6.5M/year (I know … that won’t be the number … but suppose he does). You can’t offer Geno more than that, but I’d be surprised if Geno would settle like that. And surely J-Staal doesn’t get the same cap hit as Sid, does he? Even though he could very well find a $6.5M/year contract elsewhere. I guess the trick will be, in part, to find a number that is high enough for the bar it is setting for the team, but low enough so as not to hamstring the team.
Jagr? I don't even know 'er.
This is it. Crosby pretty much wants what’s best for the team. Hell, it wouldn’t shock me to see him take a discount from what he’s making now. But, then again, I won’t be shocked to see him get a raise (in fact, I expect it and you all should too).
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by AllieLXXXVII on Jul 18, 2011 7:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Agreed, it all comes down to what Crosby wants. If he comes back healthy this year, tears it up and then says he wants league max (or close to league max), you sign him to that contract for as long as possible. No other choice.
Like I said earlier, I don’t think Sid’s rationale is going to be to get more than Ovechkin. If that was his M.O., he would not have signed before AO the last time around in ‘08, he would have waited it out and maximized it, but that’s not how it went down.
Crosby deserves a good deal, and one he’s willing to accept, but I doubt it’s tied to any other player. In the same vein, I don’t think Ovechkin would be so narrow-minded as to win the battle of capgeek.com either. Such a high level competitor only cares about what happens on the ice.
"Game's the same. Just got more fierce."
I’ve wondered if AO or GMGM has second thoughts about restructuring that deal to make it more cap friendly.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
How would they do that? Are you thinking a provision in the next CBA that might allow a temporary window to renegotiate with a player?
"Game's the same. Just got more fierce."
by Hooks Orpik on Jul 22, 2011 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions
The reason Crosby only signed a 5 year deal: taking 10 or 11 million per year is the new 8.7 discount.
When he signed 4 years ago, the max contract was $10 million, so Sid essentially left about $1.3M on the table (pretty nice). Now, the max is $12.86 M, Sid could easily take $10.87 million per and still leave the same discount on the table as last time.
That’s my prediction, $10.87 M per year over 5 years (which will take him until he’s 30 years old). Works out for both parties: Sid gets a nice raise and the Pens aren’t “stuck” with a max deal.
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by AllieLXXXVII on Jul 18, 2011 7:25 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I’m still waiting for the “Sid might not even sign with the Pens” a**hole to make a comment :D
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by AllieLXXXVII on Jul 19, 2011 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Thanks, asshole :)
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by AllieLXXXVII on Jul 19, 2011 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Nah, I don’t think that’s smart. Kunitz will be 33 before that contract begins. Given the style he plays, I don’t think it’s wise to get him a 5-7 year deal. Aside from it being shady, it just doesn’t make much sense to commit that much to a player so old and with that injury history….Especially with an unknown CBA coming up that could backfire.
If anyone gets a long-term frontloaded deal, it’d be for Crosby and/or Staal.
"Game's the same. Just got more fierce."
Wouldn’t any deal signed before the new CBA be valid though? I guess stuff like that can change with the CBA, but I don’t see how it could backfire, since so many other teams have done it. They would be in far greater trouble.
I think in order to do a long-term deal you would have to judge how long he will continue playing. Playing the way he does he would probably only play 4 years into a new deal.
by StripesForLife on Jul 18, 2011 7:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh I wouldnt be worrying about Neal. If Crosby is 100% and Neal stays healthy then every Pens fan that have been calling the Gogo trade a bust so far will be dying for Neals contract to be extended past next year. Neal has got some serious skill and I dont think Letestu as his center and a “dying” Kovalev as the other winger is really fair to judge him by. Sure he was a little snake bitten and there was a few times he should of had a goal (wide open net) lol but the kid can and will play!
by MrChadysPens on Jul 18, 2011 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I agree with you on Neal. I gave him a pass for this past season on the account of not having a center with puck-skills/playmaking ability. And I thought he just had some rotten luck on hitting posts, barely missing the target or goalie making a great save.
That excuse will be gone. It’s nice that he hits, plays well in the corners and back-checks hard, but the team can get guys like Dupuis to do that. They need goal scorers. Neal is one. He needs to get 25-30 next year.
"Game's the same. Just got more fierce."
Indeed. Neal has to know that his future paychecks are on the line this season, and he needs to do everything he can to show that he deserves a rich payday a year from now. He’s an RFA, which means the Pens have a similar situation to this year’s Tyler Kennedy negotiations. In other words, the Pens should be able to get a bit below the UFA market price on him.
Also, the class of RFA wingers available next offseason is a bit deeper. JVR and Chris Stewart come to mind.
DUE TO THE LENGTH OF NHL HOCKEY
SKATE ELECTRIC WILL NOT BE SEEN
We’ll see what the new CBA looks like, but this year anyone with 20 goal potential got 4.5 million dollars. The next CBA probably rolls back the players’ revenue share, so that number will come down, but I think the essential points will remain. At this point, goal scoring/offense creation is by far the most scarce quality in the NHL, so every team seems willing to pay a premium for it. Maybe Kunitz won’t get 4.5 million, but I’d bet the % of the cap Kunitz’ deal takes up is pretty similar to the 4.5 million dollar deals we just saw.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
We’ll see what the new CBA looks like, but this year anyone with 20 goal potential got 4.5 million dollars
:)
Sorry, I had to.
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by AllieLXXXVII on Jul 21, 2011 11:53 PM EDT up reply actions
So many tangents…
Our wingers are only good if Malkin and Crosby are playing. However, without Malkin and Crosby, they become the most hardest working wingers in the NHL. Hard work means nothing after awhile if there are no results. We all saw this.
On the flipside, one could argue that it is extremely difficult to play with players with the skill of Sid and Geno. Maybe here, and maybe only here can we give our wingers credit, that is, keeping up with 87 and 71.
We can give our wingers all the credit that they deserve but when it comes down to it, they need to finish.
"Have you ever seen such finesse?"
Off Topic
Sad news in the Pens’ blogosphere. Tony from KK is shutting down his blog “The Confluence”. He was one of the first and did it well in Dead Wing territory. I think some of you read him and even if you didn’t you should stop by and wish him well.
Is it October yet?
Yeah, Tony’s helped a ton of Penguins bloggers over the years, myself included. I always loved his take on all Pittsburgh sports. Shame he is shutting it down, he was a good blogger but more importantly a very friendly face and a good person too.
"Game's the same. Just got more fierce."
He also has an account here and will pop up from time to time. I’m hoping that he’ll comment here more with his new free time, I need to let him know that!
"Game's the same. Just got more fierce."
Powderkeg:
OK so I am never going to rule out anybody in the Pens system, but what do you guys think happens if Tangradi doesn’t stick in the NHL…which looks like a possibility. He is a RFA next year.
Do you think he is going to get re signed and fill a role of someone, say Asham? Or the dark side of possibility, do we think he walks (or is traded)?
I like him and I think he needs some time to get going. He talked alot last year about confidence, and with all those injures and call ups and send downs he has got to be feeling not so great, but I see the potential of him carrying himself like a Max Talbot kind of guy. All energy all the time. I know he has that to him, and I would like to see him stay, but IMO only if he plays every game like I know he can, which sometimes (not that often) he doesn’t.
Get in the fast lane grandma, the bingo game is ready to roll!
the fact is the Pens probably have more depth down the flanks at this moment more than any other time since the lockout.
That’s it, right there. Funny thing is, I don’t think too many people realize it yet.
It’s Cup or bust this year.
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Not sure if this has been brought up yet or if it’s even worth mentioning but I found it kind of interesting. As has been talked about a lot, Sullivan’s age and his ability to stay healthy have come into question when it comes to his potential point production. So out of curiosity (my girlfriend was watching Real Housewives of NJ so I was really struggling to find something to do on the computer) I compared his post-lockout numbers with a veteran who we all love, Bill Guerin’s post-lock out numbers. As it turns out their average points per season is exactly the same. Granted Sullivan has been injured often but it almost goes without saying his avg pts per season over that time period could have been much higher had he played more. Overall I think he’ll be fine though, and when you share an exact stat with Billy Guerin it’s gotta mean good things.
by Tick Rocchet on Jul 18, 2011 9:58 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
I for one am very curious as to what the lines are going to look like. Don’t be surprised to see a Kunitz-Sid-Neal line for that would be the most skilled grinding line ever, a line that can score pretty and ugly goals. They count either way.
I see them keeping the Cooke-Staal-TK line as well which means, the question this spring is what does the Malkin line look like?
Sullivan seems to be a strong candidate for one of the wings and I personally would like to see Dupuis-Letestu-Adams as the 4th line so does Johnson, Tanger2, or DJ get a real look at wing with Geno?
If that is the case it seems like Tanger2’s spot to lose so that the line can have some net-corner presence. Or do you go safe and play Dupuis there and get Asham into the lineup every night so that there is just one scratch per night (7th D-man), which makes economic sense.
Either way I am looking forward to it.
Life is about one simple choice, get busy living or get busy dying
The lines will be very interesting. For the first time in a long time we don’t really have much reference to go on. I mean, the big three only played 2 games together last season.
I agree with you about Kunitz-Sid-Neal; I can see a lot of other people being surprised, but DB already came out and said that’s the line he wants. Who knows if that will change during training camp or during the season, but I think we’ll definitely see it at some point. That as a first line really excites me because, like you implied, the wingers fit Sid’s game perfectly.
Even though I think they’ll eventually go back to the 3 center model, DB isn’t giving up on the Malkin-Staal project yet. So, we’ll probably see that too. The second winger on that line is pretty much a guess, though. I would go with Sullivan, but given the team’s investment in TK, I think they’ll slot him on the second line to give him top 6 minutes.
The bottom 6 truly is a crap shoot. Something tells me Jeffrey takes that 3rd line center spot from Letestu, though. Jeffrey and Sullivan together would be very interesting. Then, you’ve got either Dupuis or Cooke on the other wing.
As for the 4th line, Adams is really the only given. Unless there are injuries (God forbid..), Adams isn’t getting put anywhere higher than the 4th line.
Here’s what I got (not necessarily what I want for the team personally, but more like what I think the team will go with):
Kunitz-Sid-Neal
TK-Staal-Malkin
Sullivan-Jeffrey-Cooke/Dupuis
Cooke/Dupuis-Adams-Letestu
Scratch: Asham
I haven’t even gotten into the part about Tangradi. Do you scratch Letestu (who’s a good faceoff man) or even a Cooke, Dupuis, or Adams in favor of Tangradi? If he’s not going to be playing the top 6, is it even worth his time to be in the Burgh?
At this point, I say no to both, but let’s see what training camp brings. That just doesn’t go for Tangradi, it goes for everything I just said. This year’s line combos will be intriguing for sure.
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by AllieLXXXVII on Jul 19, 2011 3:11 AM EDT up reply actions
I feel compelled to add this...
God, what a lineup. Look at that depth. And it only gets better when you take a look at our defense (with or without Despres).
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by AllieLXXXVII on Jul 19, 2011 3:15 AM EDT up reply actions
Those lines look hot......
I think Sully will get the nod over TK – the man’s got mad puck skills from what I hear. TK plays with a lot of energy and heart, but he’s just outclassed. And I think you underrate Letestu – he sucked last year as a Line 1 Center, but he’s pretty solid on the 3rd line, fast, and a good faceoff guy.
So I’m thinking:
Kunitz – Sid – Neal
Malkin – Staal – Sullivan
Cooke – Letestu – TK
Dupuis – Adams – Vitale? / Asham?
Scratch: Asham
In the minors: Tangradi, Johnson, MacIntyre, Jeffrey (will be promoted upon healing)
I wouldn’t scratch anyone in favor of Tangradi, but I would bring him up as soon as anyone gets injured. Like you said, this group has some great depth! Someone in the Top 6 goes down? Promote Dupuis or TK to their Line, and give Tangradi or Johnson a shot at their spot. Someone in the bottom 6 goes down? One of Tangradi / Johnson / Asham dresses.
Now if we can only stay healthy this year….
"90% of the game is physical. The other half is mental." - Yogi Berra
It’s not that I underrate Letestu, it’s just that with Jeffrey coming up (and he will, if not out of training camp, sometime this season) Letestu will probably end up being a 4th liner. That’s just the way it is with the depth on this team. Sure, he’s a good 3rd liner, but on this team he’ll probably see a lot of time on the 4th line.
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by AllieLXXXVII on Jul 19, 2011 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Maybe. I’m a big fan of Jeffrey too, and think he has a lot of potential. In any case, as Marlo from the Wire would say “That’s one of those good problems to have”.
"90% of the game is physical. The other half is mental." - Yogi Berra
by cyroose on Jul 19, 2011 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Exactly.
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by AllieLXXXVII on Jul 19, 2011 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m starting to think that signing a Dupuis may have been a waste. We got all these young kids itching to make their mark.
Until they actually step in and replace then he is not a waste. To lose Dupuis on the penalty kill would hurt right now!
by MrChadysPens on Jul 19, 2011 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree with Mr Chady. At worst, Dupuis will play on the 3rd / 4th line and do some solid work defensively and on the PK. Offensively Dupuis still creates chances with his speed, though he has always had trouble finishing (which is why I think the Pens will try to have Sullivan or maybe TK take his place in the Top 6 this year)
P.S. It’s a good sign if the Pens have enough depth to put Duppers on the 4th line…
"90% of the game is physical. The other half is mental." - Yogi Berra
And, really, that’s what’s so great about Duper. He can literally play anywhere up or down the NHL lineup.
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by AllieLXXXVII on Jul 19, 2011 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Just read an article on TSN about the top ES goal scorers last season. No surprise Crosby was well above everyone else, averaging nearly 2 goals for every 60 minutes of ice time. What caught my attention was Jeffrey who averaged 1.35 ES goals per 60 min. It’s good enough for 13th on this list. Can’t wait to see him back healthy and contributing this coming season.
by Tick Rocchet on Jul 19, 2011 10:30 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
I hate playing Devil’s advocate, but that’s a pretty small sample size for Jeffrey. Yes he’s an NHL player, that much we all know. However, I don’t think we can expect him to keep up that pace despite it being a very good sign.
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by AllieLXXXVII on Jul 19, 2011 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Maybe so, but expand it to his 2009-10 season where he was the best goal scorer in the league. Choosing between Jeffrey and Crosby as far as sample size is a no brainer.
"Game's the same. Just got more fierce."
Yeah, obviously. That’s not a question. I’m just thinking about how Stamkos’ run went cold seemingly out of nowhere. That’s the nature of hot streaks. I honestly do wish we could have seen Sid ride it out naturally. If he goes 82 games at that pace next year… holy shit. That’s a President’s Trophy team.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
Oh I agree, he most likely will not keep his rate that high. He logged about 10:41 per game of ES ice time last. That gives him a rate of 1 ES goal per 5.5 games played. If he played the entire season, at that rate, he’d end the season with close to 15 goals. He likely wouldn’t net that many but I don’t think he’d be too far off.
by Tick Rocchet on Jul 19, 2011 8:22 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Stamkos - contract
Stamkos will make $37.5 million over five years.
That gives him a $7.5 million cap hit.
A lot can change in a couple years…
but I don’t see Crosby asking for $10M+
I’m not sure if you’re implying that Stamkos’ cap hit somehow affects how the Crosby negotiations will go down, but if you are, Crosby’s in a class all by himself. He could ask for the max and the Pens would give it to him without objection or second thought. I don’t think he will ask for the max, but don’t be surprised to see him get a nice little raise (if anyone deserves it in this league, it’s Sid Crosby). The $10M that you suggested he would not ask for is actually a good number, in my opinion. It’s that nice raise I was just talking about, but it’s also almost $3 million less than the max he could take. It’s a definite win-win for both sides.
In the end, though, I just take comfort in the fact that it’s pretty much a given that Sid will be re-signing in Pittsburgh. That makes this whole guessing process fun. We’ll just have to wait and see. Just about any number is possible; I’m confident Sid will do what he thinks is best.
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by AllieLXXXVII on Jul 20, 2011 1:37 AM EDT up reply actions
Stamkos’s deal also only covers 1 year of UFA, 4 years of RFA, which brings the price down (on average, by 30-40%). Crosby’s will be all UFA years.
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by red army line on Jul 20, 2011 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions
I disagree that Crosby is “in a class all by himself.” Nobody is. He’ll get whatever money he wants, and I bet he’ll outperform whatever deal he signs. I have a strong feeling he’s not going to look for max dollars, and he’ll sign a very cap friendly deal, and it kills me.
I do agree that Stamkos’ contract is going to be irrelevant.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
I think Crosby is in a class by himself (or near himself) as far as what he means on and off the ice for a franchise. There are other premier and franchise players in the league, but without bias I think it’s fair to say that Sid is the most marketable and pre-injury was the class of the league. Can he get back to that level? That you can debate.
I’d say you’re right in that he will get whatever he wants after next season, and assuming he returns to pre-injury level play, he’ll probably out-perform any contract- given Crosby’s production and the steady uptick of the salary cap.
"Game's the same. Just got more fierce."
by Hooks Orpik on Jul 21, 2011 10:04 PM EDT up reply actions
There’s too much talent to put anyone like that. Yeah, he’s the most marketable and most hyped, but it’s just not fair to lots of guys to say they aren’t even in his class.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
How is that not fair? Before he got injured, it was just the plain ole truth. No one was even close to him.
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by AllieLXXXVII on Jul 22, 2011 2:49 AM EDT up reply actions
He was having a great season, no doubt. But it was half a season. The league has a lot more parity than you’re giving it credit for.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
The fact is, whether Crosby has a 100 point season or close to 130 point season where he blows everybody out of the water, he’s just different than the rest of the league. From a marketing stand point, from a player stand point, from almost everything. Ovechkin is really the only that comes close to Sid, but even he’s a distant 2nd right now.
Like it or not, Sid is in a class by himself. It’s not fair (it’s not even fair to Crosby, as he didn’t ask for it to happen), but it’s just the way it is. This will change one of these days, but for right now, it’s Sidney Crosby and everybody else.
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by AllieLXXXVII on Jul 22, 2011 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, the only reason I say that he’s in a class by himself is because there’s no other player in the league who could get whatever money he asks for without hesitation from his team. There’s another guy, but his contract doesn’t expire until a very long time from now.
He’ll get whatever money he wants, and I bet he’ll outperform whatever deal he signs. I have a strong feeling he’s not going to look for max dollars, and he’ll sign a very cap friendly deal, and it kills me.
Haha, sorry to take pleasure in your pain, but I love this. It’s awesome hearing this from other fans :)
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by AllieLXXXVII on Jul 21, 2011 11:26 PM EDT up reply actions
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