Is it possible for a hockey player to be recognized as a good, useful player without having corresponding good possession numbers? Possibly the anti-Tyler Kennedy (a largely ineffective NHL player with usually solid possession stats)? It is an interesting debate for the so-called "advanced stats community" which tends to value shot based possession stats in order to determine player value.
New Pittsburgh Penguins winger Nick Spaling could be a perfect case study.
Ryan Wilson, the awesome blogger, had this recommended article entitled "Concerns on Nick Spaling". In the piece, as you can tell, Spaling's weak Corsi relative was highlighted, with the go-home line of:
Spaling's numbers aren't great and I do not believe that paying him in that 1.8-2.0M range is good value when you compare it with some of the other contracts that have been awarded so far this free agency period. Rutherford has done a very nice job with his bottom 6 value signings so far this offseason. Nick Spaling probably won't be one of those contracts.
Given the evidence presented about low Corsi, a high shooting percentage (albeit, his second year in a row of a high %) and less PP time next season, it's a perfectly reasonable finish-line to reach.
For more context and a different view of Spaling, by those who have seen him play a lot more real-time hockey, let's compare that assessment to the Predators blog, On The Forecheck, with a portion of their season review.
Spaling had the highest total of goals (13), assists (19) and points (32) for his career, coupled with his lowest PIM total (14) over the last four years. He ended the year with five points in the last five games including a two point night against the Chicago Blackhawks. Spaling is the definition of an NHL USB drive. You can plug him in anywhere and get results. Hustle and defensive play earned him a ton of PK time and his work in front of the net paid off on the PP after Hornqvist was used on the first unit. Under the influence of Paul Gaustad, Spaling's FO% improved from 46.3% in 2012-13 to 52.7%
You can (and should) read the whole thing for yourself, but the article and 123 comments are basically giddy about the way Spaling played last season. Harder to quantify skills like "hustling" and a swiss army like versatility is highlighted on what made Spaling a valuable player on Nashville last year, as evidenced by the poll in that article where 86% of Predator fans who responded graded Spaling with an "A" or a B" for his performance.
Define value by purely a CF% or Corsi Rel, and it doesn't make much sense to pay Nick Spaling in the $2 million range (give or take) when there are other options like Lee Stempniak, David Booth and Devin Setoguchi for a cheaper salary who are likely to provide about the same level of total production, even if there are reasons why the fit would not be great in Pittsburgh- like Stempniak's weak 3 point in 13 game playoff or Booth being a "weird dude" to perhaps give credence in looking past spreadsheets and Corsi when it comes to roster construction.
If one takes a broader look and gives weight to Spaling being more versatile, younger and unlike the guys in the bargain bin, he is coming off a career season and the arrow is pointing up on him, and perhaps you wouldn't be so quick to think "bad Corsi Rel, bad player, soon-to-be bad contract".
Where my interest lies is in determining what makes a hockey player worth the value. Is it simply who has a blue bubble on Extraskater? Is it CorsiRel or bust? Should added context for versatility to play in multiple roles/positions and the intangibles have much if any weight? Where do those hard to quantify value-adds like "hustle" and "defensive play" (the kind apparently not quantified in Corsi) factor into the equation?
Spaling will be an interesting case study because he seems like a decent enough (but not spectacular) NHL level player, capable of contributing but not a consistent scorer that isn't going to have great underlying stats. In many ways, Penguins fans are going to project what they want to see in him. It will be interesting to see how the advanced stats community factors in the contributions Spaling makes over the course of the season, and how the more ley mind takes into account misgivings that he might have as well.