FanPost

Quarterly Filing: Q1 Results



The Penguins have played their first 22 games. They're essentially at the end of the first quarter of the season. I figure that's a large enough sample to review the team's performance to date. We'll look at the team as whole, then skaters, goalies, and finally a look at the next portion of the season. Because it's so comprehensive this is a pretty long post even by my standards. Take your time and I hope to make it worth your effort.

The Team

The Penguins are 13-6-3 and with 29 points sit 2nd in the Metropolitan Division (with a game in hand). Winning almost twice as many games as you lose is a recipe for success. But something feels off about the team so far in 2016-17. Has the shortened offseason impacted them? Are they just in a slump? Or were the 2015-16 playoffs just a case of a team peaking at the right time? There's no way to know that after the first twenty games; but we will find out more as the season progresses.

It will be easier to put our finger on what's not working for the Penguins if we take a closer look at which skaters are and aren't playing up to the ability they've shown in the past.

The Skaters

I'm going to put a few tables down and review the Relative stats for Penguin skaters. All data comes from Corsica and is adjusted for Score, Venue, and Zone.

Player GP TOI Rel.ZSR Rel.SF60 Rel.SA60 Rel.SF%
BRIAN.DUMOULIN 21 353.16 -4.74 3.73 2.27 0.86
TREVOR.DALEY 22 342.6 -5.49 -3.18 6.67 -7.35
IAN.COLE 22 333.88 -0.13 -2.13 -5.64 3.03
OLLI.MAATTA 22 330.98 -0.33 -3.98 3.01 -5.17
KRIS.LETANG 17 313.04 3.29 3.37 0.2 2.1
JUSTIN.SCHULTZ 22 312.92 2.37 -0.04 -5.61 4.52
DAVID.WARSOFSKY 4 52.06 28.04 3.39 3.01 0.01

Much has been made of the Penguins' defense pairs so let's begin our review with the blue line. I wasn't surprised to see Trevor Daley and Olli Maatta struggling with their Relative Shots For %. As a pair they've been getting caved in all season. Now that they've been split up it'll be interesting to see how they change. The early signs look promising for Maatta. I'm surprised to see that Daley has such a bad Zone Deployment Rating. The Penguins have been asking him and Brian Dumolin to shoulder the load in the Defensive Zone and so far it isn't paying off. That Dumolin has such a bad ZSR and is leading the team in Shots For per 60 shows how good he is at breaking out the puck. I'm sure there's some QoT and QoC effects here as well. We always talk about how critical Kris Letang is to the team; but Dumolin is going to have an important role to fill.

Player GP TOI Rel.SCF60 Rel.SCA60 Rel.SCF% Rel.xGF60 Rel.xGA60 Rel.xGF%
BRIAN.DUMOULIN 21 353.16 0.33 1.97 -5.23 0.45 0.78 -3.77
TREVOR.DALEY 22 342.6 0.74 1.89 -2.21 -0.22 0.43 -5.85
IAN.COLE 22 333.88 -0.91 -1.81 2.25 -0.31 -0.41 1.7
OLLI.MAATTA 22 330.98 -1.54 0.26 -0.48 -0.45 -0.19 -1.81
KRIS.LETANG 17 313.04 0.18 0.6 -1.73 0.55 0.32 0.94
JUSTIN.SCHULTZ 22 312.92 -0.19 -1.91 4.27 -0.11 -0.61 5.51
DAVID.WARSOFSKY 4 52.06 0.67 1.11 -10.61 -0.48 -0.03 -3.88

Before we move on to the Forwards, take a look at the Scoring Chances For % and xG For % data for the defensemen. Even though Ian Cole and Justin Schultz are leading the team in Relative Shots Against per 60, their Shots For per 60 are decidedly average. Their Scoring Chances For % however lead the team. I think a large part of that is their favorable zone starts though as their Scoring Chances Against are very low while the Scoring Chances For are average.

Trevor Daley is pushing the play on offense but giving up just as much and more on defense. He can't continue to lead the team in defensive zone starts. Likewise Brian Dumolin is bleeding chances against. And even though he's got great Shots For numbers they aren't leading to Scoring Chances For. Is it time for Kris Letang and the Top Pair to take more of the defensive burden? I think so. Even if that means sacrificing some on offense (although given Daley and Dumolin's numbers maybe it won't go down much if at all).

Let's turn our attention to the Forwards. I will try and limit the amount of 'Wow Sidney Crosby is great' mentions but it will be difficult.

Player GP TOI Rel.ZSR Rel.SF60 Rel.SA60 Rel.SF%
EVGENI.MALKIN 22 312.47 30.75 -1.36 3.25 -3.47
PHIL.KESSEL 22 303.87 17.54 -9.91 8.7 -13.93
CARL.HAGELIN 22 286.06 0.35 -1.96 2.77 -3.54
NICK.BONINO 22 254.68 -23.09 -4.56 6.91 -8.48
CHRIS.KUNITZ 18 246.64 31.58 3.06 0.84 1.53
SIDNEY.CROSBY 16 230.41 9.96 12.72 -2.05 9.97
SCOTT.WILSON 20 223.34 -13.61 7.76 -0.25 5.54
MATT.CULLEN 22 223.22 -23.45 -0.83 -8.43 6.5
BRYAN.RUST 19 216.26 -13.46 4.69 -1.43 4.4
PATRIC.HORNQVIST 16 198.1 10.56 15.71 -2.26 12.36
CONOR.SHEARY 15 189.06 8.13 6.43 -4.89 7.91
ERIC.FEHR 22 182.36 -32.09 -12.5 -6.48 -4.86
TOM.KUHNHACKL 16 128.63 -38.07 -12.14 -5.91 -4.39
JAKE.GUENTZEL 4 51.79 24.65 -5.64 5.49 -8.01

Phil Kessel needs to shoot the puck more. It is incomprehensible how low his shot total is especially with the 4th most favorable deployment (3rd if you don't count Jake Guentzel). When he's on the ice Shots For are down by almost 10 per 60 minutes. I don't begrudge him all those assists; but he and his linemates have to shoot more when they get most of the Offensive Zone starts.

The fourth line is doing a great job of suppressing shots. But Eric Fehr and Tom Khunhackl are not able to translate that into tangible offense this year. In 2015-2016 they were trailing the rest of their teammates by 3 Shots For per game. Trailing by 12 is unacceptable. Nick Bonino is also having a rough go of it at -4.5 Shots For per 60 and giving up almost 7 more Shots Against per 60. Bonino was a key cog in last season's Cup run. The Penguins won't be able to enjoy their Bottom 6 Depth until Bonino starts playing well.

Player GP TOI Rel.SCF60 Rel.SCA60 Rel.SCF% Rel.xGF60 Rel.xGA60 Rel.xGF%
EVGENI.MALKIN 22 312.47 0.08 -1.36 0.16 -0.2 0.08 -2.37
PHIL.KESSEL 22 303.87 -6.24 0.82 -23.7 -1.24 1.01 -20.08
CARL.HAGELIN 22 286.06 -2.59 0.8 -9.9 -0.33 0.35 -6.08
NICK.BONINO 22 254.68 -4.45 3.39 -17.81 -0.67 0.89 -13.76
CHRIS.KUNITZ 18 246.64 -0.67 -2.32 1.96 0 -0.32 3.19
SIDNEY.CROSBY 16 230.41 3.62 0.45 5.37 1.24 0.08 8.31
SCOTT.WILSON 20 223.34 3.32 2.58 0.63 0.89 0.43 2.68
MATT.CULLEN 22 223.22 4.08 -0.57 15.42 0.48 -0.77 11.82
BRYAN.RUST 19 216.26 -0.43 0.28 1.77 0.32 -0.15 4.05
PATRIC.HORNQVIST 16 198.1 7.33 -0.81 18.11 1.78 -0.32 15.78
CONOR.SHEARY 15 189.06 2.62 -1.64 11.14 0.54 -0.5 9.03
ERIC.FEHR 22 182.36 -1.99 -0.05 -0.87 -1.1 -0.69 -2.46
TOM.KUHNHACKL 16 128.63 -0.82 0.56 0.88 -0.98 -0.61 -1.67
JAKE.GUENTZEL 4 51.79 2.69 -0.15 1.27 0.48 1.07 -6.08

Mike Sullivan always stresses Scoring Chances above simple shot volume. With that in mind you can see what the Penguins are missing with Patric Hornqvist out of the lineup. Matt Cullen is also getting good looks which honestly surprises me. It's no coincidence that players who are struggling to score goals (Bonino, Fehr, and Carl Hagelin) are posting very low Scoring Chances For per 60. I wish had more useful advice than 'play better' but that's why the coaches get paid what they do. However I do have two very obvious pieces of advice: that Crosby guy is pretty good and Phil needs to shoot the puck more!

The Goalies

The big story line of the season has been 'What Do the Penguins Do with their Goalies.' Well here's where they stand after the first quarter of the season.

Player TOI CA CA60 Block% Avg Distance Marek% LDSv% MDSv% HDSv% RB%
MARC-ANDRE.FLEURY 666 684 61.60 27.65 36.34 23.62 98.16 92.92 75.90 8.54
MATTHEW.MURRAY 348 317 54.65 29.97 39.12 26.36 100.00 98.00 84.21 3.23

Matt Murray has only played in 8 games since returning from a hand injury suffered in the World Cup of Hockey. In those contests he has been stellar. I previously looked at Murray's first season in the NHL and looked for ways that he could improve his game. The conclusion was that the young goalie needed to make the simple, routine saves more consistently. So far he has done that in spades, with a 100% Low Danger Save % and a 98% Medium Danger Save %. His High Danger Save % continues to impress. And he's cut his Rebound % by a full 7 percentage points. Posting a number as low as 3.24% is magnificent. Only 6 goalies in the NHL posted a number below 6% last season. If Murray keeps this up he could be a Top 10 goalie in the NHL in his first full season.

Marc-Andre Fleury has had something of an off year so far. There have been some ugly games of late including two bad games against the Minnesota Wild and a questionable relief appearance after Murray took a stick to the face against the Washington Capitals. Is Fleury folding under the pressure of competing for the starting job? Is he pouting about the situation? Is he washed up? Well the answer to all of those is "No" and let me show you why I feel that way.

A hot topic for the foreseeable future will be 'Do the Penguins play differently with Fleury in Net'? Fleury sees about 5 more Shots on Goal per 60 than Murray on 7 more Shot Attempts (Corsi). I'm not certain if that is a significant number or not. It seems like a small margin. Fleury also gets fewer blocked shots (but not drastically) and his shots are closer (but only by 8%). The Penguins certainly aren't a completely different team when Flower is in net. And indeed Fleury's numbers are very similar to both Murray and to his season last year with one glaring difference. His High Danger Save % has cratered in 2016-17.

No goalie in the NHL had a worse HDSv% last year (although Pekka Rinne came close). Only 4 netminders were even below 78%. I think Fleury is due for a big regression to the mean here. Fleury's career average is close to 80% and the last three years his average is 82%. If I'm one of the handful of GM's who needs a goalie this is the best chance you'll ever have to 'buy-low' on Marc-Andre Fleury. He will right the ship by season's end.

The Team

In conclusion what can we say about this team after playing a quarter of the season? The defending Stanley Cup Champions are still one of the best teams in the NHL. And that's in spite of the bottom 6 forwards and key members of the blue line struggling. Once this team hits its stride it will be a President's Trophy contender. However, it is by no means perfect and improvements can be made.

I still maintain that the Defense needs more talent on the right side. It would help reduce Trevor Daley's defensive duties and possibly allow him to play on his dominant side. Olli Maatta is returning to form and should get a look on the Top Pair. That will help both him and take the burden off of Brian Dumolin.

Eric Fehr's time in Pittsburgh needs to come to a close. He has not been the same player since his return from an elbow injury. At $2 million dollars his cap hit isn't a hindrance but it could certainly be spent more efficiently. And if Nick Bonino's play doesn't improve over the next 20 games we could be saying the same things about him. With Jake Guentzel and other WBS Penguins proving themselves to be capable prospects Pittsburgh already has their replacements in house.

Despite the long shadow of the NHL Expansion Draft I think the Penguins would be wise to hold onto Fleury until the Trade Deadline at least. This will allow him to improve his stock as his numbers return to his career averages. The Penguins weren't going to get much of a return for him in the first place. This will preserve that and give the team quality depth in net.

Thanks for reading! Please post your thoughts about how the Penguins have played so far this year. I hope this have given us all a good context for evaluating the team up until now.

The content expressed in fanposts does not necessarily reflect the opinions of the staff here at Pensburgh.com. FanPosts are opinions expressed by fans of various teams throughout the league but may be more Pittsburgh-centric for obvious reasons.