The first quarter of the 2013-14 Pittsburgh Penguins season wrapped up this past weekend and we took a quick look at some of the standard stats through 20 games. There were some unexpected results, some pleasant, some disappointing, but we got to see how the team performed as a cohesive unit and in comparison to one another. However, there has still been talk of some plays under performing despite some impressive first quarter numbers, so I wanted to take a look at how the players stacked up compared to their individual expectations.
Unlike the previous article which only looked at the standard stats available via the individual game score sheets I decided to look into some of the available advanced stats using just the 5-on-5 data. I then took the results for this season and compared it to each individual player's average over the past 3 seasons, Current Data divided by Current Data plus Previous Data, in order to determine whether or not they were performing above or below their usual output, greater than 50% meant doing better than average and lower than 50% meant doing worse. I then added on an additional 25% to all results in order to use the 12-point American grading scale in which the midpoint for a C grade is 75%.
For skaters, I looked at 10 different stats, 4 of which were individual stats that I weighted as 4 credits: Goals per 60 minutes, Points per 60 minutes, Fenwick events per 60 minutes, and Fenwick Shooting Percent. The other 6 were on-ice team stats so I weighted them as 3 credits: Goals For per 20 minutes, Goals Against per 20 minutes, Goals For Percent, Fenwick For Percent, Fenwick Shot Percent, and Fenwick Save Percent. I also looked at the luck factor by looking at Fenwick PDO but did not include that in the grading. For goaltenders I only had 4 stats to look at, I weighted Save Percent at 4 credits as it is the one thing the goalie has the most individual control over, and then at 3 credits had Points Percent, Goals Against Average, and Shutout Percent since they are more influenced by the team as a whole.