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Converting Team Scoring Chances into Rate Stats

Looking at how many scoring chances each team gave up over the last five years while controlling for even strength ice time.

Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

wrote previously about how many raw scoring chances each team gave up over the last five years. After I published that piece, I read an article from our own TK-Noodle that mentioned those raw totals could be skewed by ice time. If Team A had more even strength ice time over that five-year period than Team B, they might have given up more even strength scoring chances in total, but not necessarily at a higher rate. The ideal way to compare teams would be to look at their even strength scoring chances against per sixty minutes of even strength play

TK has a point. If you look at the 5v5 ice time for each team over the last five years, there's a big gap between the team with the most and the team with the least. In fact, it's more than 1000 minutes. So I took the raw scoring chances numbers that I had and converted them into per-60 rates based on each team's total even strength ice time over this five-year period (2009-2014). The updated chart is below.

Even Strength Scoring Chances Against/60
LAK 11.74
NJD 11.84
MIN 12.54
SJS 12.74
NSH 12.91
DET 13.02
BOS 13.13
CGY 13.20
CHI 13.20
STL 13.26
PIT 13.28
CBJ 13.40
PHI 13.47
OTT 13.51
DAL 13.78
MTL 13.85
TOR 14.11
WSH 14.25
COL 14.26
ARZ 14.30
TBL 14.30
BUF 14.50
ANA 14.57
VAN 14.60
FLA 14.84
NYR 14.91
WPG/ATL 14.95
CAR 15.26
NYI 15.53
EDM 15.96

This isn't too different from the chart with the raw scoring chance data in my last article. But the Penguins did fall a bit from 7th in raw scoring chances against to 11th in scoring chances against/60.  Overall, it turns out that their defensive play did not border the top-5 teams in the league. Nevertheless, their numbers are still right in the top third of teams, which is comfortably above average.

This can be a helpful benchmark by which to judge this team's defensive performance. I also continue to think that this serves as a reminder that the Penguins were more competent on defense than some gave them credit for over the last five years.