Building the Pittsburgh Penguins Roster

Last month when the free agent frenzy died down we took an early look at the 2014-15 Pittsburgh Penguins options for Forwards and Defensemen, just a rundown of which players were under contract or unsigned draft picks, and where they fit in the Pens depth chart. The last week we took a look at relative performance and player shares, again for both Forwards and Defensemen, a deeper look at player production over the past 3 seasons. This time we will take a look at the players' career NHL numbers for Goals vs Threshold and Point Shares, as well as the combined numbers which I like to call EXP.

The setup off all 3 charts is identical, the only difference in the numbers themselves. The X-axis is offensive production, with players further right playing a bigger part in their team's ability to win games or score goals. The Y-axis is defensive production, with players further up playing a bigger part in their team's ability to keep the opponent off the board. The bubble size is the combined total metric, with negative white bubbles representing players who have performed below replacement level. Players whose named are in red are those who have played limited sample sizes and as such their results may not be accurate.

The axes of all the charts intersect at the league-wide averages for those values, using all data from 1967 to present and separated into forwards and defenseman. So ideally you want players who are in the upper right quadrant, they are ones who have shown an ability to perform at an above average level both offensively and defensively throughout their careers. Those in the lower right quadrant are players that are above average offensively, while those in the upper left quadrant are above average defensively. That means players in the lower left quadrant are below average both offensively and defensively and they tend to be players you don't want to have on your team, particularly if they are in the negatives as that would mean they actually cause the team to play worse when they are on the ice.

Forwards

The Pens currently have 36 forwards in the system, 7 of which are unsigned draft picks. Of the 29 forwards who are currently signed to NHL contracts, 18 have at least some NHL experience. It is those forwards with NHL experience that we will be focusing on, as barring an exceptional performance by an untested rookie in Training Camp or yet another string of long term injuries, we will be looking at some combination of these players to form our opening night lineup.

The first thing we can do is look at the breakdown of career TOI per game, assuming that players at the top are more likely to continue doing so in order to flesh out our Top 6, whereas those below will be used as depth options. Crosby 21.2, Malkin 20.7, Kunitz 16.9, Dupuis 16.0, Sutter 15.7, Hornqvist 15.6, Spaling 14.9, and Comeau 14.8 are above the league-wide average of 14.8 minutes per night for forwards. Below that we have Goc 14.3, Downie 13.8, Bennett 13.0, Ebbett 12.1, Adams 11.0, Sill 10.8, Megna 10.5, Drazenovic 9.7, Payerl 9.0, and Leblond 5.2.

One thing to keep in mind when looking at the numbers though is that they may be influenced by sample size, so one should take those results with a grain of salt. The 5 players with less than 500 minutes in their entire NHL career are Megna, Sill, Leblond, Drazenovic, and Payerl. One may also wish to keep an eye on Bennett, as he falls under 750 career minutes and as such could also be seeing some undue influence from sample size.

<a href="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BuZk1vfIQAAwjI3.jpg:large" target="FPS"><img src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BuZk1vfIQAAwjI3.jpg:large"></a>

<a href="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BuZk53QIIAMST0O.jpg:large" target="FGvT"><img src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BuZk53QIIAMST0O.jpg:large"></a>

<a href="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BuZk9zZIUAA-mwy.jpg:large" target="FEXP"><img src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BuZk9zZIUAA-mwy.jpg:large"></a>

Defensemen

The Pens currently have 18 D in the system, 3 of which are unsigned draft picks. Of the 15 D who are currently signed to NHL contracts, 10 have at least some NHL experience. It is those D that we will be focusing on, as barring an exceptional performance by an untested rookie in Training Camp or yet another string of long term injuries, we will be looking at some combination of these players to form our opening night lineup.

The first thing we can do is look at the breakdown of career TOI per game, assuming that players at the top are more likely to continue doing so in order to flesh out our Top 4, whereas those below will be used as depth options. Martin 23.6, Letang 22.3, Ehrhoff 21.6, and Scuderi 19.7 are above the league-wide average of 19.5 minutes a night for defensemen. Below that we have Dumoulin 19.2, Maatta 18.5, Chorney 16.8, Samuelsson 15.6, Despres 15.6, and Bortuzzo 14.7.

One thing to keep in mind when looking at the numbers though is that they may be influenced by sample size, so one should take those results with a grain of salt. The 2 players with less than 500 minutes in their entire NHL career are Dumoulin and Samuelsson.

<a href="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BuZlA74IQAAFD0n.jpg:large" target="DPS"><img src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BuZlA74IQAAFD0n.jpg:large"></a>

<a href="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BuZlEO0IgAEKqfU.jpg:large" target="DGvT"><img src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BuZlEO0IgAEKqfU.jpg:large"></a>

<a href="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BuZlG8CIIAAZR7I.jpg:large" target="DEXP"><img src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BuZlG8CIIAAZR7I.jpg:large"></a>