Bovada sets line on Pittsburgh Penguins 2018-19 season

In the Mike Sullivan era, the Penguins have finished the season with 104, 111 and 100 points. If you want to make money in Vegas on a good season, they’ll have to get to at least 104 according to the latest Bovada line:

Over/Under Point Totals (From highest to lowest)

Tampa Bay Lightning - 2018-2019 Regular Season Points

Over/Under 107½

Toronto Maple Leafs - 2018-2019 Regular Season Points

Over/Under 106½

Winnipeg Jets - 2018-2019 Regular Season Points

Over/Under 106½

Nashville Predators - 2018-2019 Regular Season Points

Over/Under 105½

Pittsburgh Penguins - 2018-2019 Regular Season Points

Over/Under 103½

Boston Bruins - 2018-2019 Regular Season Points

Over/Under 102½

Philadelphia Flyers - 2018-2019 Regular Season Points

Over/Under 98½

Washington Capitals - 2018-2019 Regular Season Points

Over/Under 98½

Columbus Blue Jackets - 2018-2019 Regular Season Points

Over/Under 97½

Anaheim Ducks - 2018-2019 Regular Season Points

Over/Under 96½

Vegas Golden Knights - 2018-2019 Regular Season Points

Over/Under 96½

San Jose Sharks - 2018-2019 Regular Season Points

Over/Under 97½

Minnesota Wild - 2018-2019 Regular Season Points

Over/Under 95½

St Louis Blues - 2018-2019 Regular Season Points

Over/Under 95½

Dallas Stars - 2018-2019 Regular Season Points

Over/Under 94½

Florida Panthers - 2018-2019 Regular Season Points

Over/Under 94½

Calgary Flames - 2018-2019 Regular Season Points

Over/Under 93½

Los Angeles Kings - 2018-2019 Regular Season Points

Over/Under 93½

Edmonton Oilers - 2018-2019 Regular Season Points

Over/Under 91½

New Jersey Devils - 2018-2019 Regular Season Points

Over/Under 91½

Colorado Avalanche - 2018-2019 Regular Season Points

Over/Under 90½

Carolina Hurricanes - 2018-2019 Regular Season Points

Over/Under 84½

Chicago Blackhawks - 2018-2019 Regular Season Points

Over/Under 84½

New York Islanders - 2018-2019 Regular Season Points

Over/Under 83½

Arizona Coyotes - 2018-2019 Regular Season Points

Over/Under 80½

Montreal Canadiens - 2018-2019 Regular Season Points

Over/Under 80½

Buffalo Sabres - 2018-2019 Regular Season Points

Over/Under 79½

Vancouver Canucks - 2018-2019 Regular Season Points

Over/Under 77½

Detroit Red Wings - 2018-2019 Regular Season Points

Over/Under 75½

New York Rangers - 2018-2019 Regular Season Points

Over/Under 75½

Ottawa Senators - 2018-2019 Regular Season Points

Over/Under 71½

Last year, for what it’s worth, on 9/20/17 they had Pittsburgh with a 105 o/u. They only got 100, so the under was the winner there. And the Pens were the second highest team in the league, only behind Anaheim at 106. (The Ducks also hit the under with a 101 point season). So it’s interesting last year they only had two teams 105+, that figure has doubled to four teams this pre-season with Tampa, Toronto, Winnipeg and Nashville.

What looks good and bad to everyone?

• I’d hammer the Golden Knights under, less than 97 points seems like a good regression bet to take. They did hit 109 last year but literally from goalies to defense to forwards so many players had career years for them. Career years are difficult to replicate. For mostly Vegas influenced bookies they seem to shift to over-estimate the home team, being as they lost a lot of money on them last season. This season, maybe they’re good, but I don’t think they’re 97+ points good.
• Vancouver at less than 78 looks like a good bet too even though it’s not a high hurdle to clear. The Canucks finished with 73 points last year and are they actually any better this time around? Have some real doubts there, they seem like a team that is prime to fade away late in the season if they’re out of it.
• Edmonton at 91.5 this year? They only had 78 points last year and a lot of things went wrong, and it is tough to bet against Connor McDavid. But McDavid won the scoring title on a bad team last year. Are they a playoff team this year? If they hit the over it suggests they basically are playoff bound. At this point considering they have like 4-5 proven good forwards and 2-3 defensemen and one of those good players is McDavid, but I still would go under 91 points for them as a team in 2018-19.
• Also betting the Islanders less than 84 points seems a slam dunk given their situation and talent level (plus a major potential seller of UFA-pending veterans like Jordan Eberle, Anders Lee and Brock Nelson at the deadline), I’d say that seems a solid pick to go for the under here for a team in transition that probably needs to strip down a bit more from older players and shift fully into a rebuild and look towards the future.

For over bets to end on a positive note:

• Florida ended up with 96 points last season and has seemingly improved a bit externally by adding Mike Hoffman and internally their solid young core of players should be better still; so I like them for +94.5 for next season. Unless their goalie play really drops off a cliff this looks like a solid over bet to me. They’re in a tough division with the three big dogs (TB, TOR, BOS) but the Panthers have a lot of talent themselves.
• Maybe I’m a believer in Ilya Kovalchuk but I like the LA Kings at +94.5 (they had 98 last season). Add in a good, consistent above-average goalie and being in what should be one of the weaker divisions in the league, I see them topping 95 points in 2018-19.
• Similarly for good teams last year with lower o/u numbers, Colorado is at 90.5 now for betting and they had 95 points last season. They’re deeper in net with Philipp Grubauer and on defense with Ian Cole. Add that to their exciting young forwards who should only be better (Tyson Jost, Mikko Rantanen, Alex Kerfoot) to go with an MVP candidate in Nathan MacKinnon and I don’t see the Avalanche taking as much of a step back like Vegas has predicted.
• The Capitals are defending champs and might have a hangover, but they also have four straight 100+ point seasons (101, 120, 118, 105 from old to new, respectively). They return virtually the same team and will have confidence, have to say I like them for +98.5 at this point, barring an injury to Braden Holtby I don’t see any reason why they won’t be a 100+ point team again.

Finally, for the Pens prediction....I’d say it comes down to Matt Murray. He was underwhelming last year when he played and only played 49 games. If he can give 60 games of above-average goaltending, 104+ points in the standings seems like a solid bet for this season. After all, they only need to improve on 100 last year when they basically were sleep-walking for the first three months of the season, which theoretically won’t happen again with more rest now with a longer summer break.

If Murray can’t stay healthy and/or is just average, the under for 104 points is almost sure to hit. Not an easy call at this point, but right now in the summer with everyone healthy, why not go over and hope for the best?

Who stands out to you as good bets either over or under?