2018-19 Penguins’ Season In Review: Patric Hornqvist

Vitals

Player: Patric Hornqvist

Born: January 1, 1987 (32-years-old)

Height: 5-foot-11

Weight: 189 pounds

Birthplace: Sollentuna, Sweden

Shoots: Right

Draft: 2005 Nashville, 7th Round, 36th Pick, 230th Overall

2018-19 Statistics: 69 games played, 18 goals, 19 assists, 37 points

Contract Status: Hornqvist signed a sizable five-year, $5.3 million annual contract extension at the end of February 2018 and will be going into the second year of its term at the start of the 2019-20 season. It was a deal that, at the time, looked like a slam dunk given Hornqvist’s recent play at that point last season. It also seemed great given the fact that GM Jim Rutherford just managed to swing Derick Brassard’s contract and trade for him by plopping money in several NHL organization’s accounts to make it work (hi, Vegas). The excess cap space allowed for the Hornqvist re-signing, and all was good. So far, however, and especially with the rugged Swede’s concerning injury history and lack of offensive firepower in 2018-19, the contract that was once thought of as a home run is now seeming like a burden.

Regular Season History & 2018-19 Season

Despite Hornqvist coming off a stellar 49-point (29 goals, 20 assists) season in 2017-18, his 18 goals this past year are the second fewest netted in his 11-year career in the NHL, and given his age and his growing list of suffered concussions, that isn’t a good sign. It is true that he missed a good chunk of time sitting in the press box on the injured reserve list, even though he bounced back from each of his two concussions surprisingly fast, but that doesn’t take away from the fact that he went almost two months without recording a single point — which we’ll delve into a little later.

For what it’s worth, Hornqvist’s advance stats, more specifically his contributions in possessing the puck, are pretty solid across the board. Much of that can be attributed to Mike Sullivan pairing him together with Dominik Simon and Nick Bjugstad later on in the season and that line having a lot of success through the neutral zone and making entries into the attacking areas. His problems don’t live inside the fancy stats charts, but it’s really great to see that the potential to score regularly still exists in Hornqvist’s repertoire. It’s just the matter of executing on a more regular basis game-to-game and month-to-month.

Monthly Split

(via Yahoo! Sports)

The biggest issue on display with Hornqvist this season in his monthly splits was his absolutely frigid cold streak from the beginning of January to the beginning of March. He only scored one goal from that January 6 to March 1 period, and only contributed two helpers. He was basically useless on the score sheet on a nightly basis, and Mike Sullivan made that very clear to him — he demoted the usually effective, “nose for the net” player to the bottom-six during that chunk of time.

Here’s an excerpt from my story highlighting Hornqvist’s offensive dry spell:

His six points (three goals, three assists) in his last 20 games played appears as a huge stain, especially when you consider he hasn’t made it onto the score sheet in any of his last 10 contests. His last point (an assist) dates all the way back to January 8 vs. Florida. At even-strength, Hornqvist has been a total ghost, failing to drive offense as a third and fourth-line winger on the Penguins’ bottom-six.

Considering driving offense is the aggressive Swede’s M.O., this is becoming a big problem. Even though his possession metrics are fine, his high-danger chances for — a stat he usually dominates due to his annoying net-front presence — have gone ice-cold, with two HDCF in his past 10 games and only six total in his past 20. His expected goals percentages relative to his shot totals are also all in the red. And to be fair, it isn’t from a lack of trying. Hornqvist is still getting pucks on net. The quality of them has just taken a nose-dive.

Hornqvist consistently denies that his myriad of past concussions negatively affect his play on the ice, but after seeing the results in black in white after coming off his fifth (!) NHL concussion, and second one in the 2018-19 season, it’s becoming clear that he’s either not willing to admit their effects, or is too stubborn to.

Hornqvist has been a force for the Penguins in the postseason, as evidenced by his goals in big moments (see: 2017, Nashville). His HDCF totals and percentiles still stayed impressively high in the team’s short 2018-19 run, there was still just no success in hitting with twine. But for what it’s worth, even though it’s not an excuse, the entire roster went bone dry during the Islanders’ sweep of them. “Big Moment” Patric Hornqvist was seemingly shelved away for another time.

Charts (via HockeyViz)

Overall Role & General Data

When referencing his advanced metrics, Hornqvist had a bit of an uneven and unfulfilling season. The numbers show he did well to keep the puck out of his own end and shoot more on the other net, but generally, the Penguins weren’t rewarded with goals due to this.

Usage

Hornqvist played a lot in the second half of the season with Dominik Simon and Nick Bjugstad. One color on the top chart you don’t see a lot of is blue, which represents Sidney Crosby. Interestingly after such a successful 2018 playoff run (where Hornqvist scored 11 points in ten postseason games, playing as Crosby’s right winger) the team didn’t elect to use the two together that much at even strength in 2018-19.

Even-Strength Unblocked Shot Locations

It’s always fun to see where Hornqvist shoots from, and as expected, he unloaded shots on goal in high volume from the right side, as well as in tight to the net as much as possible. This is clearly a player who knows his role to get to the front of the net and create havoc.

Unblocked Shot Rates On The Power Play

The above two charts for unblocked shots on the power play might throw some cold water on the popular movement to get Hornqvist off of the top PP group. There could be some cause/correlation or other factors in play, but the two sample sizes are about equal due to Hornqvist’s injuries. And the data unmistakably shows the Pens’ power play performs FAR better at getting shots on goal with Hornqvist on the ice than otherwise when he is not, featuring a massive difference coming from the net-front area.

With Hornqvist there is that beautiful dark purple blob in the first chart across the front of the net (his typical spot) indicating a ton of shots from that area. Without him in the lower chart, it’s a green area around the crease and into the slot (indicating a lack of shots).

Ideal 2019-20

Hornqvist needs to get back to his point-scoring ways in the net-front area and go back to being an absolute animal on the power play, otherwise his contract will become a huge burden on the GM and the team itself if they want to bring another Cup to the city of Pittsburgh before Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin retire. It’s a pretty blatant ask, but there’s no way to defend paying a 32 (almost 33!) year old $5.3 million for the next three years after the 2019-20 season if he’s bringing nothing of value to the offense.

Discussion

With the sudden drop off in production, do you see the Penguins moving Hornqvist before his new contract is set to expire, or do you think he’ll overcome his concussion complications and have a big comeback performance in 2019-20?

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