So you want to build a hockey team that can compete and contend in the National Hockey League, right? How does one go about doing that? By scoring goals. In order to score goals, you need to shoot the puck. Is it possible that certain players are better at converting those shots to goals than other players? Using statistical measures, it does appear to be possible to measure that aspect of a player’s game.
In DTMAboutHeart's xG model (2015), he included a "shot multiplier," which considered the impact the individual shooter had on the likelihood of a shot becoming a goal.https://t.co/cJsnuNNNK8 pic.twitter.com/6YSw8C2udi— Sean Tierney (@ChartingHockey) July 12, 2019
You would expect that the top ranking players on this type of list, also expecting volume shooters to perhaps have a leg up on players who don’t get as many scoring chances.
I wondered which skaters had the greatest/least impact on shots becoming goals in 2018-19, so I followed his process. Here's how that went.— Sean Tierney (@ChartingHockey) July 12, 2019
⏫ lots of familiar names but Johnson, UFA Dzingel, Connolly, and Vrana catch my eye.
⏬ you don't want to rate below Pyatt, ever. pic.twitter.com/VG5FoE2UMj
Let’s take a closer look at those top forwards.
Why, yes....you are reading correct, that is Jake Guentzel. This list is full of pure shooters and goal scorers, but ultimately, it’s not surprising to see Jake end up on here. A 40-goal scorer in the 18-19 campaign, he makes it look so easy at times and finds himself in great scoring position and converting the shots needed to turn them into goals.
For defensemen, the list looks like this.— Sean Tierney (@ChartingHockey) July 12, 2019
⏫ Leafs could have two of top-10 on their top pair.
⏫ Chabot and Heiskanen
⏫ Matheson and Zadorov ⁉️
⏬ Hjalmarsson is the heat check to know this makes sense
⏬ Doughty pic.twitter.com/NN9gIZd8DI
For a closer look on the defensive side of the puck, we have Kris Letang ranking in the Top 10.
Now comes the bad news! Not only is Olli Maatta listed here, whom the Penguins moved on from last month, trading him to Chicago for Dominik Kahun, next to last on the list is.......Jack Johnson.
While the arguments have been made, can be made, and will continue to be made for and against the Penguins trading Phil Kessel, the big takeaway I see here is that Rutherford and the Penguins were brass to steer away from the even bigger potential mistake that would have been trading away Kris Letang. Now, fix the Jack Johnson problem and we can talk.