While a 4-1 win over the Minnesota Wild during a time when points are at an absolute premium is definitely something to be thankful for — the Penguins standings boost from the win is only minimal after not getting any of the help they had needed.
According to Micah Blake McCurdy’s model and data, on its own, a win for the Penguins last night would’ve boosted the team’s playoff chances from 47% up to as high as 61%.
However, despite winning, the Penguins didn’t get that much of a boost on account of other game results.
The Florida Panthers won their game in regulation, as did the New York Islanders, each cutting into that 14% boost by 6% each, bringing the Pens’ playoff chance boost down to a measly 2%.
On top of that, the Buffalo Sabres beating the Red Wings dinged another 1% off of the Pens chances.
After all other impactful games were said and done — the big win over the Wild? Ultimately only good for a 1% increase when it comes to the chances of making the playoffs.
Unfortunately, this is the bed you make for yourself when you get down to the final few games of the year and are relying on other teams for help and when handling your own business isn’t enough.