As in previous posts evaluating the Penguins’ forwards, I wanted to analyze the Penguins’ roster in comparison to other teams again, but this time, I analyzed the defense. I used Capfriendly again, for simplicity’s sake.

Rather than include all defensemen, I limited the pool to players with greater than 41 games played and 15 minutes of ice time to give a basis of durability. The rationale was that players that were not available or were too sheltered with limited time were probably not the sort that a team needed to become a more formidable contender. That left 183 players, which meant it did not capture every team’s top-6 players but was close to it. I sorted them by handedness since position label on Capfriendly seems to be more of a function of usage, which could be dictated by roster composition more than actual ability. It presented 102 lefties and 81 righties.

There was not much difference between stats based on handedness, except for a slight premium salary for righties.

Average LD: 27y.o. 70GP 6G 26P +4 20:06 $3.4M

Average RD: 28y.o. 70GP 6G 29P +2 20:04 $4.0M

There were 9 teams with excessive defensemen (more than six players), 7 teams with six, and 16 teams with deficient defensemen (less than six players). The numbers were from end of season, which meant some teams loaded with extras for the playoffs.

How did the Penguins stack up?

By these metrics, Ruhwedel and Friedman were just under 15min per game, and Friedman and Smith did not play enough games to reach the threshold. Kulikov appeared, though it was not due to his work with the Penguins.

The Penguins were only better than average in 40% of these metrics (Below average was indicated by the bold and italicized font in the tables). Often, only two (on either side) were better than average by any metric, but it was different players for different metrics. However, to match all of these metrics was quite a feat, only 26 (15L, 11R) players matched at least five of the six stats. Most teams would have one player who hits 5 of 6 of these marks if they were spread evenly amongst the league, but NYR and EDM have three each, hogging the talent.

How much of a concern is it?

Pettersson, Smith, and Joseph might be the best chances for Pittsburgh to come close to beating this standard of metrics next season. If all three hit these marks, it would give the Penguins one of the best defenses in the league in terms of the left side.

The right side will be more concerning. Letang will need to return to form, and Petry needs to improve by at least better avoiding injury since his cap hit and age will not get any better. While in some seasons Letang has played at an elite level that can be considered tilting the ice (or roster), this past season’s performance is of the sort of player that every team could already have (since 30 players scored as many points as he had, if distributed evenly across all teams).

These metrics were not favorable for Dumoulin, Kulikov, Rutta, Ruhwedel, or Friedman. The Penguins should try to find another (sixth) defenseman for the regular lineup through trade or free agency.

For comparison, Florida was composed in this way:

Florida showed a hole in the lineup when using these metrics, but Josh Mahura played all 82 games for them. His stats were 25y.o. 16P +17 $0.75M. His TOI of 14:02 kept him from qualifying for this study. He re-signed in February for $0.925M.

Forsling and Montour were examples of players that performed well by these standards, and even Ekblad and Staal performed moderately well. Their defense took them to the finals, while costing roughly $10M less than the Penguins’. Staal and Gudas could become UFAs, but Lucas Carlsson and Casey Fitzgerald (UFA G6) could provide similar performance if the team will decide not to pursue new faces.

Vegas used these players:

Vegas had to play Theodore (a leftie) on the right side, but their d-men hit 62% of these standards. They spent about $3M more than the Penguins on these players and have no upcoming free agents.

Who should the Penguins pursue, and how?

There were 54 players that played at least 41 games, scored at least 26 points, and played at least 20:00, but only 3 of them will potentially become UFAs this weekend – Klingberg (R), Orlov (L), and Gostisbehere (L) (Dunn and Miller could become RFAs). Only 7 of them become UFAs next season, making for a slim selection of options at the next trade deadline. It will be more likely for the Penguins to have to trade to improve their defense. That would mean that they are likely to receive a player with a cap hit between $4-9M (ignoring extremes). Still, it will not be easy since 16 of 29 right-handed defensemen have some sort of no trade clause. Three more have not ended the RFA phase yet. It leaves these 10 players.

Because of the importance to their team’s contention or rivalries with the Penguins, I would assume that Fox, McAvoy, Makar, Deangelo, Pesce, Montour, and Jensen would not likely to be available. That would leave Pionk, Andersson, and Weegar.

Using the original table of teams across the league shows that DET and ANA have the greatest need for right-handed d-men. DET has Seider as a restricted player as an intriguing option, but ANA does not have intriguing defensive players.

The table also showed that STL could use an extra RD, but in this situation, they would be swapping one for one. Doubling back to the NTC players, Parayko, Faulk, and Larsson would be intriguing players, or Hronek, still in RFA phase, could be potentially available. However, the Canadian teams would likely be blocked by Petry’s clause. Still, it would be a gamble whether any of these players would perform better than Petry too.

Yet, any of these players would be more likely to outperform Rutta. So, the question would be whether the Penguins ought to pay up to $3.75M more than they would with Rutta (and if no retention) for what is effectively a fifth defensemen. It would not be so odd to do that since that money is similar to what Dumoulin made. (This example swaps Dumoulin and Rutta for Smith and an RD). So, they would not be paying much different for the defense as a whole than what they did last season. CHI, MIN, and NYR would be paying as much for their right-side defenders too. So, it is not unprecedented.

The lineup looks well-balanced and seems to allow for a variety of interesting combinations.

Yet, it all seems unrealistic as the Penguins still need to settle their goaltending and bottom-six offense and will likely need money to do that. So, while I think that a trade would be the way to upgrade the defense the soonest, I think a trade deadline acquisition is more likely the way they would improve their defense. Maybe one of these players will be available then, or a rental might arise as a temporary solution if they are playoff contenders.