Over/Under for the Penguins core players for the 2023-24 NHL season

It is time for another round of over/unders for the 2023-24 Pittsburgh Penguins, this time looking at some of the more prominent returning core players.

We already did some over/unders for the new additions to the roster, and now we are going to look at some potential totals for Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang, Jake Guentzel, and Bryan Rust.

Let’s get to it.

Sidney Crosby: Over/under 95.5 points

Even as he gets into his mid-late 30s Crosby is not slowing down offensively. He was great during the 2022-23 season, netting 93 points in what was his first 82-game campaign since the 2017-18 season.

In the history of the league, only 10 players age 35 or older have ever had more points in a single season.

It would not surprise me at all if he comes back this season and performs at an even higher level, which is why I am setting an over/under of 95.5 points for him.

That would be a pretty historic pace as only three players age 36 or older have ever hit that mark: Gordie Howe did it, Joe Sakic did it, and Wayne Gretzky did it.

If anybody in the modern game is capable of doing it, it is Crosby. Especially if he can have another fully healthy season and be a part of a power play unit that should be improved with the addition of Erik Karlsson.

Evgeni Malkin: Over/under 30.5 goals

Malking has not reached the 30-goal mark since the 2017-18 season, but a lot of that has been due to shortened seasons (both from a league standpoint and an injury standpoint). While he is also getting deeper into his late-30s just like Crosby, he is also still a top offensive performer like Crosby.

Honestly, I see 30 goals as a pretty realistic possibility here as long as he can stay reasonably healthy again.

He scored 27 goals in 82 games this past season despite shooting at only 11.3 percent, one of the lowest marks of his career and more than two points below his career average.

A 13 or 14 percent shooting percentage on the same number of shots would have put him between 31 and 33 goals for the season.

There have been 16 30-goal seasons for players age 37 or older in NHL history, with Alex Ovechkin most recently accomplishing it.

Ovechkin, Martin St. Louis and Teemu Selanne are the only players to accomplish it since the start of the 2010-11 season.

Kris Letang: Over/under 50.5 points

I feel like the deciding factor here would probably be Letang’s ability to stay on the ice.

He has reached the 50-point mark just once over the past four seasons, but a lot of that has been due to a lack of regular season games played.

He has still scored at a greater than 50-point pace per 82 games, but has rarely played enough games to reach that point.

Of all the veteran core players the Penguins re-signed a year ago Letang was the one that I thought was the most secure bet, not only because of how good he was during the 2021-22 season, but also he because he is consistently one of the best conditioned athletes in the NHL. His season was a bit of a mixed bag, again due mostly to health related issues. I like his chances for a rebound and big bounce back if he can just stay on the ice for at least 70-75 games.

Jake Guentzel: Over/under 40.5 goals

Guentzel is one of the best goal-scoring wingers in the league and has consistently scored at (or close to) a 40-goal pace for the better part of his career.

The only thing that has consistently stopped him from reaching the 40-goal mark more often is missing games and not getting an opportunity to play a full season.

Well that is going to be the obstacle again this season as he is already set to miss at least the first five games of the 2023-24 season. That means the best-case scenario for him would be 77 games played, and it will potentially be even less than that depending on how long it takes him to get healthy at the start of the season and if he misses more time later in the year.

He did score 40 goals in 76 games two years ago and got to 36 in 78 games a year ago.

This is going to be a big year for him as he tries to play for a new contract extension, and I wouldn’t rule out him really going crazy offensively when he gets back on the ice.

Bryan Rust: Over/under 25.5 goals

Rust was the one re-signing from a year ago that I had the most doubts with simply because he just seemed like the type of player whose next contract would not age well. His first year on that new contract was quite the roller coast. He looked really bad for some stretches, really unlucky for others, and unstoppable for other shorter stretches. The one thing I will say about his season as a whole is he probably did get hit with some bad luck from a production standpoint.

His underlying numbers were still mostly strong, and his goal-scoring was crushed by a 9.5 shooting percentage that was his lowest mark since the 2015-16 season when he only appeared in 41 games in what was his first real lookin the NHL.

It was also about three percentage points below his career average.

Any sort of positive regression in that area could easily get him back to the 25-30 goal range.